[EAI Public Opinion Briefing] 2024 EAI East Asia Survey: Public Perception of Foreign Relations, United States, China, and North Korea

2024 EAI East Asia Survey: Public Perception of Foreign Relations, United States, China, and North Korea

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I. General Foreign Perception

South Korea's Greatest Threat: "Climate Change" and "North Korean Threat" Neck and Neck

● When asked about the greatest threat facing South Korea, up to the second priority, "Climate change and environmental issues" ranked first with 51.2%, and "North Korea's nuclear and missile threat" ranked second with 51.1%. The proportion of respondents who selected climate change as a threat up to the second priority increased by 10.2 percentage points from 41.0% in 2023 to 51.2% in 2024. This can be interpreted as an increase in public recognition of threats due to tangible changes such as extreme weather events and heatwaves.

● When asked about the most important foreign relations for South Korea, up to the second priority, ROK-US relations ranked first with an overwhelming 75.1%. Inter-Korean relations increased by 11.8 percentage points from 40.8% in the previous year to 52.6%, while ROK-China relations decreased by 15.3 percentage points from 48.1% in the previous year to 32.8%, showing a reversal.

● The countries perceived as military threats to South Korea (multiple responses) were North Korea (87.4%), China (63.7%), Russia (44.8%), and Japan (37.7%). The proportion of respondents identifying Russia as a military threat significantly increased compared to the previous year (19.9% → 44.8%).

● Regarding South Korea's future, 54.0% of respondents expressed a pessimistic outlook, while optimistic projections remained at 32.1%. The pessimistic outlook increased by 15.7 percentage points compared to 2023 (38.3%), and the optimistic outlook decreased by 19.8 percentage points compared to 2023 (51.9%).

[Greatest Threat Facing South Korea]What do you consider to be the greatest threat facing South Korea? [Up to 2nd priority]

[Government's Top Foreign Policy Priority]What do you consider to be the government's top foreign policy priority (goal)? [Up to 2nd priority]

[Most Important Foreign Relations]What are the most important foreign relations for South Korea? [Up to 2nd priority]

[Most Important Countries or Regions for Relations]Considering South Korea's future, which of the following countries or regions do you consider to have the most important relations with South Korea?

[Countries or Regions Considered Military Threats]Which countries or regions do you consider to be military threats to South Korea? [Multiple responses]

[Countries or Regions with Important Economic Relations]Which countries or regions do you consider to have particularly important economic relations with South Korea? [Multiple responses]

[Relative Affinity: China vs. United States]Which country do you feel more affinity towards, China or the United States?

[Relative Affinity: China vs. Japan]Which country do you feel more affinity towards, China or Japan?

[Prospects for South Korea's Future]What are your thoughts on the future of South Korea?

II. Perception of the United States and ROK-US Relations

Positive Impressions Driven by "Economic Opportunities" and "Shared Values"

● 71.7% of respondents indicated they had a "good impression" or "generally good impression" of the United States. Reasons for a good impression included "economic opportunities in the U.S. market" (47.6%) and "being a liberal democratic country" (44.0%) (up to 2nd priority).

● Meanwhile, respondents with unfavorable impressions cited "America First policy and unilateral attitude" (59.4%) and "issues within American society such as racism, gun violence, and drugs" (50.0%) as reasons (up to 2nd priority).

● While 50.9% of respondents had a good impression of President Biden, 71.3% had an unfavorable impression of former President Trump.

● When asked about the current and future prospects of South Korea-U.S. relations, moderate responses such as "average" (56.9%) for the current relationship and "will remain the same as the present" (63.3%) for the future predominated. Optimistic responses indicating good current and future relations decreased by more than 20 percentage points compared to 2023.

● Positive responses viewing the U.S. as a trustworthy country declined by 12 percentage points compared to 2022 (85.1% → 73.1%), but remained high. The proportion perceiving the South Korea-U.S. economic relationship as complementary increased by 12.9 percentage points compared to 2023 (50.8% → 63.7%).

[Experience Visiting the United States]Have you ever visited the United States?

[Purpose of Visiting the United States]What was the purpose of your visit to the United States? [Multiple selections allowed]

[Change in Impression After Visiting the United States]Did your existing impression of the United States change after your visit?

[Intention to Visit the United States]Would you like to visit the United States if you had the opportunity?

[Impression of the United States]What is your impression of the United States?

[Reasons for Unfavorable Impression]What are the reasons for your unfavorable impression of the United States? [Up to 2nd priority]

[Reasons for Favorable Impression]What are the reasons for your favorable impression of the United States? [Up to 2nd priority]

[Impression of President Biden]What is your impression of U.S. President Joe Biden?

[Impression of Former President Trump]What is your impression of former U.S. President Donald Trump?

[Current South Korea-U.S. Relations]What do you think of the current relationship between South Korea and the United States?

[Importance of South Korea-U.S. Relations]Do you consider the current South Korea-U.S. relationship important for South Korea?

[Future of South Korea-U.S. Relations]What are your prospects for the future of South Korea-U.S. relations?

[Trustworthiness of the United States]Do you consider the United States a trustworthy partner for South Korea?

[Economic Relations between South Korea and the United States]Regarding the economic relationship between South Korea and the United States, which of the following statements is closer to your opinion: A or B?

A: The economies of both countries are complementary. / B: The economies of both countries are competitive.

III. Role of the South Korea-U.S. Alliance

"Should Play a Role in Resolving Global Issues"... Public Opinion Reserved on Countering China

● 77.8% agreed that the South Korea-U.S. alliance should evolve into one that plays a role in resolving regional and global issues beyond responding to North Korea, continuing the positive public opinion towards expanding the alliance's scope seen in 2023 (81.8%).

● When asked about South Korea's role within the framework of the South Korea-U.S. alliance, public opinion was divided: 74.3% agreed with participating in U.S. efforts to protect maritime transport routes in the Indo-Pacific region, while 54.1% agreed with jointly responding with the U.S. in the event of heightened tensions in the Taiwan Strait.

● When asked about the maximum level of response South Korea should take in the event of a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait and U.S. intervention, "humanitarian aid" was the most common response at 44.2%. Responses advocating for the deployment of troops (non-combat or combat) accounted for 18.1%, and responses suggesting non-involvement accounted for 9.1%.

● When asked about the maximum role U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) should undertake, responses were ranked as follows: "Defense of South Korea against North Korean threats" (35.4%), "Maintaining peace in the entire East Asian region" (27.2%), and "Responding to China's military expansion" (14.2%). This indicates that while the primary mission of USFK remains deterring North Korean military threats, public opinion is also considerably open to USFK's role in maintaining peace in the East Asian region.

[Role of the South Korea-U.S. Alliance]Do you agree or disagree with the following statement?

"The South Korea-U.S. alliance should evolve into one that plays a role in resolving regional and global issues beyond responding to North Korea's military threats."

[South Korea's Role within the South Korea-U.S. Alliance Framework]Within the South Korea-U.S. alliance framework, do you agree with the following roles for South Korea?

1. Jointly respond with the U.S. in the event of heightened tensions in the Taiwan Strait.

2. Participate in the U.S.'s policy of strongly countering China in the advanced technology sector.

3. Participate in the U.S.'s policy of taking a strong stance on China's human rights abuses.

4. Participate in U.S. efforts to resolve international conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine.

5. Participate in U.S. efforts to protect maritime transport routes in the Indo-Pacific region.

[Importance of Tensions and Conflicts in the Taiwan Strait]How important do you consider tensions and conflicts in the Taiwan Strait to be for South Korea's national interests?

[South Korea's Damage in Case of Military Conflict in the Taiwan Strait]What do you consider to be the most severe damage South Korea might suffer in the event of a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait?

[South Korea's Response in Case of Military Conflict in the Taiwan Strait]In the event of a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait and U.S. military intervention, what is the maximum level of response you believe South Korea should undertake?

[Role of U.S. Forces Korea]The United States has plans to flexibly operate its military assets in the Indo-Pacific region. What is the maximum role you believe U.S. Forces Korea should undertake?

[Support for or Opposition to U.S. Restrictions on Economic Relations with China]What is your opinion regarding the U.S. restricting trade and investment between South Korea and Japan and China, for example through the CHIPS Act?

IV. Perception of China and China-South Korea Relations

"Unfavorable but Important Relationship"

● 63.9% of respondents held an unfavorable impression of China, significantly outnumbering those with a favorable impression (19.6%). Reasons for an unfavorable impression included "the impact of China's environmental problems" (44.2%), "an attitude of disrespect towards South Korea" (39.4%), and "coercive actions such as the THAAD retaliation" (38.3%) (up to 2nd priority).

● A majority of respondents (67.5%) also expressed a negative view of President Xi Jinping.

● For countries like the United States and Japan, experience visiting these countries contributed to improving impressions (over 70% maintained or improved their favorable impression). However, the effect of visiting China on improving impressions was marginal (only 51.8% maintained or improved their favorable impression).

● Currently, 60.1% of respondents evaluate the current South Korea-China relations as "bad," and the most common outlook for future relations is that they will "remain the same as the present" at 60.4%.

● Meanwhile, when asked about the importance of South Korea-China relations to Korea, 85.9% responded that they are "important," indicating a public opinion that perceives the importance of China relations separately from the current state, continuing from last year.

[Experience Visiting China] Have you ever visited China?

[Purpose of Visiting China] What was the purpose of your visit to China?

[Change in Impression After Visiting China] Has your impression of China changed after your visit?

[Intention to Visit China] Would you like to visit China if you have the opportunity?

[Impression of China] What is your impression of China?

[Reasons for Negative Impression] What are the reasons for your negative impression of China? [Up to 2 reasons]

[Reasons for Positive Impression] What are the reasons for your positive impression of China? [Up to 2 reasons]

[Impression of President Xi Jinping] What is your impression of Chinese President Xi Jinping?

[Current South Korea-China Relations] What do you think of the current relations between South Korea and China?

[Importance of South Korea-China Relations] Do you think the current South Korea-China relations are important to Korea?

[Future of South Korea-China Relations] What is your outlook for the future of South Korea-China relations?

[Trust in China] Do you consider China a trustworthy partner for Korea?

[Economic Relations between South Korea and China] Regarding the economic relationship between South Korea and China, which of the following statements is closer to your opinion?

A: The economies of both countries are complementary. / B: The economies of both countries are competitive.

V. US-China Competition and Korea's Response

Divided Opinion on "Supporting the US" vs. "Neutrality" in US-China Conflict; "Nuclear Armament if North Korea Continues Nuclear Development" at 71.4%

● When asked about concerns regarding recent Chinese trends, "coercive diplomatic behavior towards South Korea" was the most frequent response at 22.1%, followed by "conflict with the United States" at 17.1%, and distortion of history and culture concerning South Korea at 16.8%. While the proportion of respondents selecting the first two options decreased compared to 2022, the issue of distortion of Korean history and culture, ranking third, more than doubled compared to 2022 (6.8%), demonstrating that South Koreans' concerns about this issue are escalating.

● Regarding the stance South Korea should take in a severe conflict between the U.S. and China, "neutrality" received 46.8% of responses, while "supporting the U.S." garnered 41.6%. The response advocating for support of China was 2.9%.

● When asked about the priority issue for the current administration's diplomacy with China, "expanding economic exchange and cooperation in advanced technologies" was the most cited at 30.0%. Compared to the 2023 survey where "response to economic sanctions (by China)" ranked first, a trend of somewhat positive public opinion shift towards bilateral cooperation was observed.

[Concerns Regarding Recent Trends in China] What are your primary concerns regarding recent trends in China?

[Outlook on China Surpassing the US] Do you believe China will become the leading global power, surpassing the United States, in the near future?

[Korea's Stance in US-China Conflict] If a serious conflict arises between the United States and China, what stance do you believe Korea should adopt?

[Priority Issues in China Diplomacy] What are the priority issues for the current administration's diplomacy towards China?

VI. Perceptions of North Korea and Inter-Korean Relations

"Sufficient US Nuclear Umbrella" - Divided Opinion... "Nuclear Armament if North Korean Nuclear Threat Persists" at 71.4%

● The current inter-Korean relations were overwhelmingly characterized as "bad" with 83.2% of respondents, while only 1.3% responded that they were "good." This is interpreted as reflecting the perception of strained inter-Korean relations due to North Korea's declaration of "hostile two-state policy" and the scattering of trash balloons towards South Korea.

● While 82.9% agreed that the goal of North Korean denuclearization should be maintained, 72.0% disagreed that North Korea would abandon its nuclear weapons, indicating a prevailing negative outlook on the North Korean nuclear issue.

● When asked if the U.S. extended nuclear deterrence (nuclear umbrella) is sufficient as a response to North Korea's nuclear threat, responses were evenly split, with 41.2% agreeing and 47.4% disagreeing.

● A majority of 71.4% responded that South Korea should develop its own nuclear weapons if North Korea does not abandon its nuclear program. Furthermore, 34.8% indicated that Japan should develop nuclear weapons in the same scenario.

[Current Inter-Korean Relations] What do you think of the current inter-Korean relations?

[Outlook for Korean Peninsula Situation in 10 Years] What is your outlook for the Korean Peninsula situation in 10 years?

[Priority Issues in North Korea Policy] What are the priority issues for the current administration's policy towards North Korea?

[Agreement on Claims Regarding North Korea's Nuclear Weapons and Response] To what extent do you agree with the following statements?

1. The goal of North Korean denuclearization should be maintained.

2. North Korea will abandon its nuclear weapons.

3. North Korea will preemptively use nuclear weapons against South Korea if necessary.

4. The extended nuclear deterrence (nuclear umbrella) provided by the United States is sufficient to counter the North Korean nuclear threat.

5. South Korea should develop nuclear weapons if North Korea does not abandon its nuclear program.

6. Japan should develop nuclear weapons if North Korea does not abandon its nuclear program.