[East Asia Institute Policy Series] VI. North Korea's Perception of the New Cold War and South Korea's Foreign Strategy

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■ Although the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union ended in the late 1980s, the Korean Peninsula has yet to escape the Cold War order. However, is a new Cold War structure emerging on the Korean Peninsula? North Korea has recently referred to the emergence of a new Cold War order in international relations. In his 2021 policy speech, Chairman Kim Jong Un stated, "The current changes in international affairs can be seen as primarily characterized by an increasingly complex and multifaceted international situation, as the structure of international relations has shifted to a 'new Cold War' order due to the United States' unilateral and unfair policy of taking sides." Furthermore, in the report of the 8th Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea in December 2022, he emphasized, "The structure of international relations has clearly transitioned to a 'new Cold War' system, and the trend toward multipolarity is further accelerating."

Kim Jong Un's perception of a new world order reflects the changed international situation following the US-China strategic competition and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He appears to believe that the altered world order will directly impact the security environment on the Korean Peninsula and is likely to flow in a direction favorable to North Korea. As the US-led unipolar system transitions to a multipolar system, the power structure surrounding the Korean Peninsula is also undergoing significant changes. North Korea has adopted a stance of responding very actively to the changed international order. Chairman Kim Jong Un has instructed the diplomatic sector to study the current US policy toward North Korea, domestic politics, and the changing global balance of power, and to prepare tactical measures to implement a strategic policy toward the United States. In the same vein, North Korea has strived to strengthen its relations with China and Russia. North Korea has actively supported China amidst the US-China conflict and strongly endorsed Russia's invasion of Ukraine, arguing that the root cause of the Ukraine crisis lies in the hegemonic strategy of the United States and the West.

Of course, it is not yet certain whether the new Cold War order will solidify. However, the changing world order appears to pose greater challenges to South Korea. Considering the shift in the balance of power from a US-led unipolar system to a bipolar or multipolar system, it is necessary to contemplate the changing regional security environment. South Korea, particularly concerning the North Korean issue, needs to examine the implications of a new Cold War for the Korean Peninsula. In fact, the recurring conflicts between the United States and China present complex and difficult challenges for South Korea, which seeks to maintain cooperative relations with China. To date, South Korea's approach to North Korea has been based on a post-Cold War regional security system grounded in a US-led unipolar structure. While North Korea was isolated after losing its Cold War patrons, the Soviet Union and China, in the early 1990s, South Korea pursued a strong and resolute North Korea policy by leveraging a favorable security environment.

Since the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s, all South Korean governments have endeavored to persuade North Korea to change its regime's nature, whether through engagement or pressure. The Northern Policy during the Roh Tae-woo administration can be seen as the first attempt to dismantle the remaining Cold War order on the Korean Peninsula and resolve the issues of a divided Korea. The Kim Young-sam administration, particularly after Kim Il Sung's death in 1994, pushed North Korea into a corner, expecting the collapse of the North Korean regime and unification under South Korean leadership. The Kim Dae-jung, Roh Moo-hyun, and Moon Jae-in administrations pursued engagement with North Korea, attempting to achieve regime reform under South Korean leadership. The Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye administrations also pursued a firm and resolute North Korea policy based on a strong ROK-US alliance, attempting to compel North Korea to accept international norms and change its existing course of action. Conversely, North Korean leaders have recognized since the late 1980s that the balance of power on the Korean Peninsula has been operating unfavorably for North Korea with the end of the global Cold War. Kim Il Sung re-evaluated North Korea's security environment during the collapse of the Soviet Union and the changes in China. North Korea began developing its nuclear and missile programs and has desperately strived to overcome its unfavorable security environment.

Since then, North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests and declared itself a nuclear-weapon state. In response to North Korea's threats, South Korea has pledged close security cooperation with the United States. Accordingly, South Korea is committed to strengthening the ROK-US alliance through joint military exercises and enhancing US extended deterrence. Recently, the South Korean government, as a 'global pivotal state,' has strongly supported the US-led rules-based international order and actively participated in the US Indo-Pacific Strategy, promoting freedom, peace, and prosperity through liberal democratic values. However, achieving success with such policies in a new Cold War situation is not easy.

The ideal scenario for South Korea would be the creation of friendly and cooperative diplomatic relations between the United States and China. However, what will happen if a Cold War order re-emerges in international relations, as Kim Jong Un anticipates? The impact of the new Cold War on the Korean Peninsula is already evident. Over the past few years, the UN Security Council has failed to forge a unified response to North Korea's military provocations. Although North Korea's ballistic missile launches are illegal and violate UN Security Council resolutions, China and Russia have recently vetoed additional sanctions resolutions against North Korea. This is a stark contrast to their affirmative votes on sanctions resolutions aimed at pressuring North Korea's nuclear and missile tests until 2017. China and Russia argue that stringent sanctions will not help change North Korea's behavior and that existing sanctions should be lifted or eased. The United States, Russia, and China have debated at the UN Security Council over who is responsible for North Korea's military provocations and its nuclear and missile programs, and these debates will likely continue. Russia and China have repeatedly taken opposing stances, arguing that North Korea's provocations are a legitimate response to the ROK-US alliance and joint ROK-US exercises that escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula. This division raises significant concerns as it prevents the international community from taking concrete action against North Korea's military provocations.

The problem is that as new Cold War tensions escalate, the North Korean issue can no longer be addressed within the framework of the post-Cold War era. If the regional order surrounding the Korean Peninsula reverts to a Cold War structure of US-Japan-ROK versus China-Russia-North Korea, North Korea will no longer be an isolated state. North Korea will become a state heavily reliant on and supported by Russia and China. Of course, Russia and China do not perceive North Korea as they did in the past, nor does North Korea view these two countries as unconditionally reliable patrons. However, Russia and China will continuously and strategically utilize the North Korean issue to counter the United States. North Korea is well aware of this stance from Russia and China and is likely to leverage it for its strategic advantage. What puts South Korea in the most difficult position is the lack of influence and effective leverage to change North Korea's behavior. While the ROK-US alliance can deter North Korea's military provocations, its ability to change North Korea's behavior is limited. If the new Cold War situation intensifies, North Korea's dependence on China and Russia will further increase. In particular, as China's influence over North Korea grows, China's influence over the entire Korean Peninsula will naturally increase. In a new Cold War situation where international dynamics are decidedly unfavorable, South Korea needs to explore new strategies for response.

※ This commentary is the Korean translation of "Pyongyang in Search of a New Cold War Strategy."

■ Hwang Ji-hwan_Professor at the University of Seoul. He graduated from Seoul National University with a degree in Diplomacy and received a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Colorado. He served as a visiting scholar at the Catholic University of America for one year and taught North-South Korean relations at George Washington University. He has held various advisory positions for the South Korean government, including for the Presidential Committee on Policy Planning, the Presidential Committee for Unification Preparation, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Unification, and the Ministry of National Defense. His major publications include "The North Korean Human Rights Between China and South Korea," "The North Korea Problem from South Korea’s Perspective," and "The Paradox of South Korea’s Unification Diplomacy."

■ Editor:Park Jeong-hoo_EAI Researcher

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