[East Asia Institute (EAI) North Korea Policy Series] I. The New Cold War World as Envisioned by North Korea

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At the 8th Central Committee’s 6th Plenary Meeting held in December 2022, General Secretary Kim Jong-un expressed his perception of the global situation, stating, “The international relations structure is clearly shifting to a ‘new Cold War’ system, and the trend of multipolarization is accelerating.” Amidst the ongoing discussions of a new Cold War, driven by the U.S.-China conflict and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the global political stage, North Korea is also participating. This paper aims to examine North Korea’s perception, intentions, and implications regarding the global political order. Specifically, it seeks to analyze North Korea’s understanding of the frequently invoked concepts of the new Cold War and multipolarization.

North Korea's Foreign Policy Perceptions During the Cold War and Post-Cold War Era

During the Cold War, North Korea fundamentally assessed the international situation through a dichotomous lens of "the Free World versus the reactionary forces." It viewed the competition as being between the U.S.-led Free World and the "international democratic camp" centered around the Soviet Union. However, with the onset of the Sino-Soviet split in the 1960s, North Korea established its Juche ideology, emphasizing self-reliance, while simultaneously pursuing a policy of "realpolitik" through pendulum diplomacy between China and the Soviet Union. The 5th Party Congress held in November 1970 articulated the principles of North Korea's foreign policy. It criticized "modern revisionism" deviating from Marxism-Leninism, "dogmatism" emphasizing dogma without scientific consideration, and "great power chauvinism" reflecting imperial characteristics, thereby proclaiming the principles of an independent foreign policy based on the Juche ideology.

With the advent of the post-Cold War era, Kim Jong-il further emphasized self-reliance in foreign policy and introduced the policy of Songun (military-first). He justified this by instilling a sense of crisis, arguing that U.S.-led forces, including South Korea, could militarily pressure and preemptively attack North Korea, thereby invoking a "besieged mentality." This worldview was utilized to overcome the collapse of socialism and the hardships of the 1990s.

The Kim Jong-un Era

North Korea's perception of the external environment in the early years of Kim Jong-un's rule did not significantly differ from previous periods. It expressed animosity towards imperialist forces led by the United States and presented self-reliance as the core ideology of its foreign strategy. However, the principles of friendship and peace, which are posited alongside self-reliance in North Korea's foreign policy, have shown some changes depending on the time and circumstances. In joint New Year's editorials published in 2012-2013 after the launch of the Kim Jong-un regime, emphasis was placed on "friendly relations with all countries that respect our sovereignty." Concurrently, an attitude was expressed that North Korea "cannot sit at a negotiation table with those who brandish nuclear weapons at us."

The tendency to emphasize the irrationality of the existing international order and norms, which had been present before, has been further strengthened. This is aimed at resisting sanctions imposed on North Korea by emphasizing the legitimacy of its nuclear development, which Kim Jong-un is vigorously pursuing. For example, when North Korea launched a long-range rocket in April 2012, it argued that "universal international laws, which hold greater authority than UN Security Council resolutions, recognize the right to peaceful use of outer space."

New Cold War and Multipolar Worldview

North Korea began to invoke the concept of a 'Cold War' again in the late 2000s. Criticizing the U.S. military buildup plans, particularly missile defense, advanced fighter jets, and nuclear capabilities, North Korea suggested the possibility of a "new Cold War" as a reaction, stating that "various countries around the world are watching with vigilance."

North Korea's thesis on the new Cold War is linked to multipolarization and follows a Marxist deterministic view of history based on anti-Americanism. In 2008, North Korea elaborated on the following points under the heading, "Background to the Emergence of the 'New Cold War' Theory": First, it negatively assessed the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union as "an unjust competition between superpowers" and argued that it "does not wish for the repetition of a Cold War." However, it diagnosed that the "status" enjoyed by the U.S. as the "sole superpower" is being challenged by "major powers including Russia" in a "trend of multipolarization." It then defined "multipolarization as a process of democratization of international relations and a step forward in history, while unipolarization aims at the fascism of international relations and is a regression in history." Ultimately, it predicted that "the U.S.'s anachronistic Cold War policy will inevitably face ultimate bankruptcy in the face of resistance from progressive humanity worldwide."

In summary, around 2008, when the financial crisis hit the United States, North Korea diagnosed that the post-Cold War unipolar system of the U.S. began to be challenged by countries like China and Russia, forming a trend towards a multipolar system. In response, the U.S. is continuing its Cold War policies, such as utilizing the war on terror to expand and strengthen NATO, in an attempt to maintain a unipolar system. However, it expresses a deterministic view of history tinged with hope that the U.S. will ultimately go bankrupt. While criticizing the unipolar system and the "new Cold War," it positively evaluates multipolarization as a desirable world order.

North Korea presents a dualistic structure of the new Cold War. First, it considers North Korea as an equal to the United States, substituting the Cold War structure between the U.S. and the Soviet Union with a new Cold War structure between the U.S. and North Korea. It defines the U.S. measures to strengthen deterrence against North Korea as "anachronistic acts that are bringing about a new Cold War." It also invokes the new Cold War in the context of the U.S.-South Korea-Japan versus North Korea-China-Russia structure. An article from 2011 titled "Northeast Asia with High Cold War Tensions" stated that "the U.S. is triggering a new Cold War in Northeast Asia by focusing on securing strategic superiority over China and Russia through the establishment of a trilateral military alliance with South Korea and Japan."

The transition from the ongoing arrival of a new Cold War to its "complete revival" was triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. In the week following the invasion, North Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued statements three times a week, defending Russia and criticizing the U.S. It argued that the war broke out because the Western world ignored Russia's legitimate security concerns, and subsequently, the Western world has intensified anti-Russian hostile acts through large-scale arms supplies and sanctions. North Korea asserts that the war has led to the formation of camps between the Western world and forces opposing it.

The new Cold War was directly mentioned at the highest level by Kim Jong-un. At the aforementioned 8th Central Committee’s 6th Plenary Meeting in December 2022, Kim Jong-un declared a clear shift to a new Cold War and a trend of multipolarization. The main reasons cited were the U.S. "forming new military blocs like an 'Asian NATO' under the guise of 'strengthening alliances'" and the "military movements and activities" of hostile forces, including South Korea. He specifically identified the trilateral cooperation among the U.S., South Korea, and Japan as the core of the new Cold War. As for the trend of multipolarization, he cited the efforts of emerging economies such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation to "realize the multipolarization of international economic relations by challenging the U.S.-led 'unipolar economic system.'" Specifically, North Korea has designated AUKUS, the Pacific Partnership, the Quad, and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) as "products of the new Cold War" and includes China, Russia, and Iran among the Cold War blocs.

Background and Limitations of the New Cold War Worldview

North Korea's invocation of a new Cold War aims to criticize the U.S.'s military buildup and its North Korea policy. Since the late 2000s, North Korea has defined U.S. measures to enhance its deterrence against North Korea, such as selling weapons to South Korea or developing and deploying advanced military assets, as "anachronistic policies of the new Cold War." In particular, it has characterized joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises and the deployment of U.S. strategic assets to South Korea as Cold War policies that "destroy peace and stability in Northeast Asia and the world." This trend has continued, with North Korea criticizing the U.S. actions to increase military capabilities in the region under its Indo-Pacific strategy as "the dark clouds of a new Cold War are heavily looming over the Asia-Pacific region due to the U.S.'s anachronistic foreign policy of pursuing hegemonic status through 'military superiority' and its dangerous military provocations."

North Korea is particularly leveraging the war in Ukraine, which served as a catalyst for the "escalation of the new Cold War and the deepening of its structure," to assert its desired narrative. It defines Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a legitimate war to "defend its sovereignty, territorial integrity, and fundamental interests." Furthermore, it criticizes the sanctions imposed by the Western world on Russia as "pressure tactics" and "hostile policies." North Korea is projecting its own goals of "territorial integrity" on the Korean Peninsula and the lifting of sanctions onto the situation in Russia.

In conclusion, North Korea is advocating for the legitimacy of its nuclear possession within a global order that has become increasingly polarized, through the discourse of a new Cold War. It is particularly exploiting the dysfunction of the UN Security Council, stemming from the war in Ukraine, to undermine the legitimacy of the mechanism that has criminalized North Korean nuclear weapons. Furthermore, it seeks to legitimize its support from China and Russia on a bloc level by defining the U.S.-South Korea-Japan alliance as a trilateral pact. It also emphasizes the futility of sanctions in the context of a new Cold War. North Korea's assertion that "U.S. sanctions are by no means an omnipotent tool" and its expression of "full support and solidarity with the struggle of the Russian government and people who are resolutely resisting the U.S.'s anachronistic sanctions and pressure tactics" support this claim.

However, the new Cold War and multipolar world envisioned by North Korea are not complete. While debatable, the full arrival of a new Cold War is unlikely. It lacks the ideological cohesion and bloc isolation characteristic of the Cold War. Unlike the Cold War era between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, the new Cold War, which substitutes the confrontation between liberalism and authoritarianism, is difficult to sustain due to a lack of ideological consistency beyond systemic differences. Furthermore, the isolation seen between communism and liberalism during the Cold War era is difficult to apply to the current world. Complete decoupling between the U.S. and China in economic and various other sectors is impossible. Particularly, it is uncertain whether North Korea, China, and Russia will function as a sustainable bloc or a "single staff" as North Korea claims. While they may unite in the face of a common enemy in the United States, historically, these nations have been bound by distrust in relationships of "convenience." Ultimately, although North Korea advocates for the "escalation of the new Cold War and the deepening of its structure" with hope and expectation, its realization remains uncertain.■

※ This commentary is the Korean translation of "North Korea's Outlook on the New Cold War."

■ Park Won-gon_Professor of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University. He holds a Ph.D. in Diplomacy from Seoul National University and has served as a policy advisor to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Vice President of the Korean Peninsula Peace Institute (KPI). He conducted research on the ROK-U.S. alliance and North Korea for 18 years at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses and previously served as a professor of International Studies at Handong Global University. His main research areas include the ROK-U.S. alliance, North Korean diplomacy and military affairs, and Northeast Asian international relations (history).

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