[Global NK Comment] The War in Ukraine and North Korea-Russia Relations

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Ten months have passed since Russia invaded Ukraine. Contrary to initial expectations, Russia has shown significant military deficiencies, and Ukraine has surprisingly held its ground. While the possibility of negotiations is being raised as Ukrainian forces recapture parts of Kherson, which Russia had already declared its territory, it is unknown when the war will end. Above all, it is unlikely that Ukraine, which has lost territory equivalent to the Korean Peninsula, will back down easily. Even if a truce or ceasefire is established through negotiations, the conflict is likely to continue. It could remain a low-intensity conflict, like those in Palestine or Nagorno-Karabakh.

While some view this war as a confrontation between democracy and authoritarianism, others see it as a Western plot to bring down Russia. Some also believe that the United States and the West caused the war, while others, regardless of the cause, believe that President Putin's actions of crossing the borders of a neighboring country and sacrificing innocent civilians are unforgivable. There are also views that Putin harbors ambitions to rebuild the former Soviet Union. In this era of rampant fake news, it is difficult to ascertain the truth of the war. However, many agree with the prospect that this war could be a turning point that fundamentally alters the post-Cold War world order that has lasted for 30 years. The energy shortages and food crises sweeping the globe also demonstrate that this war is not simply a conflict at the national or regional level.

North Korean Provocations and North Korea-Russia Rapprochement

The war in Ukraine casts a dark shadow over the distant Korean Peninsula as well. This is because North Korea's behavior, which has conducted ballistic missile launches more than 30 times this year alone, does not seem unrelated to this war. While the hardline stance of the Biden administration and the Yoon Suk-yeol government in South Korea, along with the resumption of joint US-South Korea military exercises that had been suspended for a while, are cited as the main causes of missile provocations, there are also many expert opinions suggesting that the worsened US-Russia conflict due to the war in Ukraine is fueling North Korea's unprecedented provocations. This is an analysis that Kim Jong Un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea and Chairman of the State Affairs Commission, is seeking closer ties with Russia by leveraging anti-US sentiment. There have also been continuous reports that Russia, suffering from a shortage of weapons and munitions needed for its war effort, has received ammunition, weapons, and even military uniforms from North Korea. Although North Korea and Russia dismiss these reports as mere US-orchestrated information warfare, the fact that North Korea and Russia have become noticeably closer due to the war in Ukraine is undeniable.

The world media was greatly surprised when North Korea officially declared its support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Not many countries openly support Russia's military actions. Even China, Iran, and India, classified as pro-Russian countries, maintain a neutral stance on the war waged by Russia. Furthermore, very few countries have formally recognized the Luhansk People's Republic and the Donetsk People's Republic, established by pro-Russian forces within Ukraine. Apart from Russia, Syria is the only other country. North Korea is included in this group. Moreover, when Putin announced in September 2022 the annexation of four regions seized from Ukraine – Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia – as Russian territory, North Korea immediately issued a statement from its Ministry of Foreign Affairs supporting this move. Since the outbreak of the war, North Korea has repeatedly cast vetoes on UN resolutions condemning Russia, and Russia has exercised its veto power on decisions to impose new sanctions against North Korea, showing a pattern of mutual protection.

Kim Jong Un may be calculating to elevate the relationship with Russia to a level comparable to an alliance, if not an actual alliance. He may also wish to emulate the example of China and Russia, which have closely aligned their state relations to a quasi-alliance level. Kim Jong Un is well aware that while the geopolitical interests and national interests of China and Russia do not perfectly align, they have strengthened mutual solidarity and strategic closeness for common goals. The common goal of China and Russia is to depose the United States, the global hegemon, and establish a multipolar world order. Presidents Putin and Xi Jinping believe that the era where the US decides everything must end, and its end is near. The unified perception of the leaders of China and Russia is that by combining Russia, still the world's second-largest military power, with China, which has risen to the G2 ranks in economic power, they can end the unipolar US era that has dominated for the past 30 years since the end of the Cold War.

Kim Jong Un seems to desire North Korea's inclusion within the closely aligned China-Russia relationship. Although North Korea is a small nation with insufficient scale and economic power, it threatens the United States by legalizing its nuclear arsenal. In January 2018, Putin praised Kim Jong Un as an "able and mature politician." Putin made the following remarks to reporters in the context of Kim Jong Un increasing pressure on the US by repeatedly conducting nuclear and missile tests after the inauguration of the Trump administration in 2017: "I think Kim Jong Un has won this time. He has achieved his strategic objectives. He has nuclear warheads and missiles with a range of 13,000 kilometers that can reach the territory of any potential adversary anywhere in the world. He is undoubtedly not only capable but also a mature politician." Two months later, in March 2018, during his State of the Union address to Congress, Putin unveiled a simulation video of a nuclear attack on the United States. He criticized the US and the West, stating in a solemn tone, "No one wanted to talk to us, and no one listened to us. But now they have to listen."

Possibilities and Limitations of North Korea-Russia Relations

In fact, Russia has made various efforts to improve relations with North Korea since President Putin took office. The fact that he visited North Korea in his first year as president is highly significant. Even during the Cold War, when the two countries were called blood allies, no Soviet leader had ever visited North Korea. Putin believes that with the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia lost crucial strategic assets for managing the world. For him, North Korea was a geopolitical asset to be recovered. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia was more interested in developing relations with South Korea than in engaging with North Korea. Facing extreme economic hardship after the cessation of Soviet support, North Korea attempted to overcome its difficulties through nuclear and missile development, and the UN and the US responded by strengthening sanctions against it. North Korea's economy showed no signs of recovery. For Russia to restore relations with North Korea, North Korea's economy needed to normalize to some extent. Russia took measures to write off North Korea's debt, which had remained the biggest obstacle to North Korea-Russia cooperation. In 2014, the Russian State Duma ratified an agreement to write off $10 billion of the $11 billion that North Korea had borrowed from the former Soviet Union, and to receive repayment of the remaining $1 billion with a 20-year grace period.

Furthermore, since 2001, Russia has proposed what is known as the South-North Korea-Russia trilateral economic cooperation project. This was a grand vision to connect the Trans-Siberian Railway, Russian gas pipelines, and power grids to South Korea via North Korea. Russia believed that the realization of this trilateral economic cooperation would not only bring economic benefits to Russia as well as North and South Korea but also contribute to the improvement of inter-Korean relations. In August 2011, during North Korean leader Kim Jong Il's visit to Russia and his summit with Russian President Medvedev, the trilateral economic cooperation was a major agenda item. At the time, the Lee Myung-bak administration also showed interest in Russia's proposal, making it seem as if the historic economic cooperation project was about to be realized. However, the project did not gain momentum and eventually stalled due to North Korea's successive nuclear and missile provocations, leading to the strengthening of UN sanctions against North Korea. Notably, after North Korea's fourth nuclear test in January 2016, during the process of adopting a UN Security Council resolution, Russia, while opposing North Korea's nuclear test and agreeing on the need for sanctions, requested and secured amendments to the sanctions to keep the South-North Korea-Russia trilateral economic cooperation project alive. However, Russia's efforts did not lead to the resumption of the project. In June 2021, at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, President Putin stated that to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue, conditions for North Korea's security guarantees should be created rather than imposing sanctions, and that the trilateral economic cooperation could be an effective way to achieve this.

There are also speculations that Russia's economic support for North Korea may increase if North Korea-Russia relations intensify following the war in Ukraine. However, over the past 30 years, North Korea-Russia economic relations have been extremely limited, and the inherent structural limitations between the two economies are difficult to overcome. The low economic compatibility between the two countries means that North Korea has few economic cards to offer Russia, and the trade volume between them is very small. Russia does not wish to return to an economic relationship with North Korea based on gratuitous aid, as it did during the Soviet era. Moreover, it is unlikely that Russia, facing increasing financial burdens under sanctions pressure, will provide a breakthrough for North Korea's economy.

However, it is clear that the benefits North Korea could receive from strengthened North Korea-Russia relations far outweigh the benefits Russia might gain. As mentioned earlier, North Korea has consistently supported Russia's position regarding the war in Ukraine. In return, Russia, starting with its veto alongside China on the UN Security Council resolution condemning North Korea's ballistic missile launches in January 2022, has repeatedly blocked condemnation resolutions and decisions to impose new sanctions against North Korea. For North Korea, supporting Russia is a symbolic act of solidarity, as it is not directly related to its own affairs. In contrast, Russia's protection of North Korea is an exercise of power that blocks external pressures that could cause substantial harm to North Korea. If the division into blocs in Northeast Asia and the Korean Peninsula solidifies, as it did during the Cold War, North Korea would be the biggest beneficiary.

Future Outlook and Recommendations

It is difficult to predict the extent to which North Korea and Russia will deepen their relations in the future. We must observe how the war in Ukraine concludes. If Russia suffers a crushing defeat in the war and falls into diplomatic isolation and economic hardship, the nature of its support for North Korea will also change significantly. We must also pay attention to how US-Russia, US-China, and China-Russia relations evolve. While US-China tensions are escalating and China-Russia solidarity appears robust, China's future approach to Russia is an indispensable variable in predicting North Korea-Russia relations. China may not welcome North Korea's closer ties with Russia.

As the post-Cold War international order is shaken and conflicts among Northeast Asian countries exhibit characteristics of polarization and a new Cold War, the relationship between South Korea and Russia, marking its 30th anniversary of diplomatic ties, has reached a critical juncture. The fundamental framework of South Korea's diplomacy toward Russia, which has sought to leverage the development of Russia's Far East and the trilateral economic cooperation for inter-Korean relations to elicit Russia's support in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue, is now inevitably subject to fundamental revision. As long as Russia highly values North Korea's strategic importance in countering the US in Northeast Asia and can exercise its veto power as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, South Korea will face significant constraints in cooperating with Russia on North Korean issues, particularly concerning North Korea's nuclear and missile development. Russia views the geopolitical challenges posed by the US as a greater threat than the crisis posed by North Korea's nuclear weapons. Even if Russia does not overtly pursue a strategy to solidify the North Korea-China-Russia bloc, North Korea and Russia are likely to speak with one voice under the common strategic goal of countering the US in the process of reshaping the world order, which will pose a significant obstacle to the South Korean government's pursuit of its North Korea and unification policies.

However, even amidst these challenging circumstances, it is crucial for South Korea to maintain an attitude of not excluding Russia from discussions on the North Korean nuclear issue. The multilateral resolution of the North Korean nuclear problem is Russia's consistent stance, and Russia remains an important partner for us, as the peaceful resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue is extremely difficult without its support. Above all, it is necessary to develop logical arguments to make the Russian side understand South Korea's strong commitment to denuclearization and its efforts for the peaceful resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue. Only a consistent policy stance toward North Korea and unification, unchanged across different administrations, can persuade Russia. It is difficult to counter Russia's long-term perspective, which has remained unchanged for over 20 years, with South Korea's short-term perspective of five-year presidential terms.

※ This commentary is the Korean translation of "The Russia-Ukraine War and North Korea-Russia Relations."

■ Seungsoo Hyun_ is a Senior Researcher in the Peace Research Division at the Korea Institute for National Unification. He holds master's and doctoral degrees from the University of Tokyo, Japan, and previously served as a Senior Researcher at the Institute for Foreign Affairs and National Security, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, and as a HK Professor at the Center for Asian and Pacific Studies, Hanyang University. He is currently an adjunct professor at the Graduate School of International Studies, Hanyang University, and Vice President of the Korean Association for Eurasian Studies. His main research areas include Russian and Eurasian international politics, Russian security policy, and North Korea-Russia relations. His publications include "China-Russia Cooperation and Peace and Prosperity on the Korean Peninsula" (co-authored), "Border Cooperation for the Realization of Peace and Prosperity on the Korean Peninsula" (co-authored), and "Multilateral Approach to Promoting Northeast Asian Peace and Cooperation and Eurasian Cooperation" (co-authored), among others.