[EAI Global Analysis] Prospects for Resuming North Korea-US Nuclear Negotiations After the South Korea-US Summit

Editor's Note

Following the South Korea-US summit, discussions and policy coordination between South Korea and the United States regarding the resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue and the establishment of lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula are becoming visible. Through a joint statement, the leaders of South Korea and the United States expressed their intention to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue through diplomatic means, based on the fundamental framework of the Panmunjom Declaration and the Singapore Agreement. In response, Jeon Jae-sung, Director of the EAI Center for National Security Studies (Professor at Seoul National University's Department of Political Science and International Relations), examines the conditions for North Korea-US negotiations and the possibility of resuming talks, including building trust between North Korea and the US, enhancing and specifying the US's North Korea policy, and securing China's active cooperation.

With the announcement of the core elements of the Biden administration's North Korea policy review in late April 2021 and the South Korea-US summit held on May 21, discussions and policy coordination between South Korea and the United States regarding the resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue and the establishment of lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula are becoming visible. The United States is stating that it will gradually find solutions to the North Korean nuclear issue at the working level through a pragmatic and phased approach, overcoming the shortcomings of past approaches by the Obama and Trump administrations. The South Korean government has shown its will to maintain the achievements made in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue in 2018. As a result, in the joint statement by the leaders of South Korea and the United States, they expressed their intention to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue through diplomatic means, based on the fundamental framework of the Panmunjom Declaration and the Singapore Agreement.

Currently, the full picture of the Biden administration's North Korea policy review is unknown, and it is unclear whether there are plans for future announcements. However, observing the diplomatic efforts the United States made towards South Korea during this summit, we can see that it is pursuing a meticulous approach that involves coolly calculating the interests of the United States and its counterpart and advancing common interests. We can expect the United States to make phased and practical efforts to coordinate the interests of both North Korea and the US while accommodating the opinions of its allies and the international community. North Korea has maintained a wait-and-see attitude so far to grasp the full scope of the Biden administration's North Korea strategy. What are the conditions for resuming North Korea-US negotiations in the future, and what is the possibility of resuming talks?

Conditions for North Korea-US Negotiations and Possibility of Resuming Talks

North Korea clearly stated the conditions for resuming North Korea-US dialogue in a statement by Kim Yo Jong on July 10 last year. Although these were conditions from the Trump era, as there has been no other clear statement of position to date, they can be referenced as conditions for future dialogue resumption. Kim Yo Jong stated that since North Korea must deal with the entire United States, not just President Trump, building trust with the entire US is important, and cited the withdrawal of the US's hostile policy towards North Korea as a condition for building trust. She also made it clear that the lifting of economic sanctions has no particular meaning in the withdrawal of the hostile policy towards North Korea. The economic benefits themselves are not important unless the lifting of sanctions is a signal that contains the content of withdrawing the hostile policy towards North Korea. North Korea is observing what considerations the US has and what it can offer to guarantee its regime in exchange for security for security.

This position is connected to the breakdown of the Hanoi summit on February 28, 2019. In a speech at Stanford University on January 31, 2019, then-US Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun discussed the preparations for the Hanoi talks. Following the Singapore summit, a relatively consistent dialogue channel had been established between North Korea and the US, and due to the international community's overall interest and support for resolving the North Korean nuclear issue, there was cautious optimism about a resolution. The US was pursuing the complete, verifiable dismantlement of North Korea's nuclear weapons and delivery systems, and all weapons of mass destruction, but indicated that it had received a promise from the North Korean side to start with the Yongbyon facility and gradually expand to all plutonium and uranium facilities. North Korea had agreed to provide a complete declaration of its nuclear program at a certain point before the complete dismantlement of its nuclear weapons, and the US was considering corresponding compensation for this.

The problem is that, as revealed in Bolton's memoir, Biegun's negotiation plan was thoroughly ignored within the White House just before the Hanoi summit. Ultimately, the Hanoi summit failed, and it is clear that to resume North Korea-US negotiations, this mistake must not be repeated. North Korea has lost trust in the special representative for North Korea, who could not represent the intentions of the US President, and has also lost trust in the South Korean government, which had positioned itself as a mediator between North Korea and the US. From North Korea's perspective, the conditions for resuming North Korea-US talks will importantly include not only the withdrawal of the so-called hostile policy towards North Korea but also the authority of the special representative for North Korea and the strengthening of South Korea's negotiating power with the US based on close coordination between South Korea and the US. Furthermore, for North Korea-US talks to resume, there must be a signal of withdrawal of the hostile policy towards North Korea not only from President Biden but from the entire US, and the working-level negotiator must not only have the full authorization of the President but also provide appropriate compensation corresponding to the dismantlement of North Korea's nuclear weapons.

At the press conference following the South Korea-US summit, President Biden appointed Ambassador Sung Kim as the special representative for North Korea and showed him being fully authorized in front of the South Korean delegation. Moreover, unlike the Trump administration, the Biden administration and the US government will engage in North Korea negotiations with a complete system, making policy divisions between the President, the administration, and Congress unlikely. Ultimately, US policies that can meet the conditions of security for security between North Korea and the US become important. The coordination between South Korea and the US regarding the North Korean nuclear issue and peace on the Korean Peninsula has also been elevated in preparation for the South Korea-US summit. The Biden administration has repeatedly shown respect for the positions of its allies, particularly South Korea, on solutions to the North Korean nuclear issue, and the South Korean government has also made statements supporting the US policy review. In addition to the North Korean nuclear issue, as the South Korea-US partnership has been strengthened in areas such as East Asian regional security, economy, technology, and health, we can expect closer South Korea-US relations and continued coordination of North Korea policy in this process.

Meanwhile, from the US perspective, it is difficult to engage in full-fledged North Korea negotiations if North Korea does not show sincerity in its efforts for complete denuclearization. North Korea has not reached an agreement with the Biden administration on the final state of resolving the North Korean nuclear issue, and the US cannot help but confirm the denuclearization promises made by North Korea during the Trump era. Although the US stated in the joint statement of the South Korea-US summit that it would pursue negotiations based on the Panmunjom Declaration and the Singapore Agreement, it also made it clear that it could not hold a summit until North Korea's willingness to denuclearize is confirmed. For now, there will be a tense tug-of-war between the US, which seeks to confirm North Korea's willingness to completely denuclearize, and North Korea, which seeks evidence of the withdrawal of the hostile policy towards it.

It is not easy to build trust between North Korea and the US in the short term. It will take a considerable amount of time and various trust-building measures to lay the foundation for meaningful dialogue between North Korea and the US. Among the efforts that South Korea and the US can make, first and foremost, close and consistent policy consultation between the two countries is necessary. North Korea has expressed serious skepticism about the South Korean government's ability to persuade the US since the breakdown in Hanoi. The US is concerned that South Korea will try to persuade North Korea while weakening sanctions against it. When South Korea achieves perfect policy coordination with the US, North Korea will trust South Korea's mediation efforts more. Furthermore, the US can also gain trust in South Korea's efforts to improve relations with North Korea and its inter-Korean cooperation projects. In the future, the US must be convinced that inter-Korean humanitarian projects or inter-Korean relations improvement projects that the South Korean government pursues can help build trust with North Korea while adhering to the principles of international sanctions against North Korea.

Second, the US policy towards North Korea must have a high priority and specificity. It is well-known that the Biden administration's current priorities are overcoming the COVID-19 pandemic and recovering the domestic economy, especially the middle class. In foreign policy, there are numerous issues such as China, Russia, the environment, health, Iran, and the Middle East. The North Korean nuclear issue is indeed a lower priority compared to these issues. If the US takes the North Korean nuclear issue seriously and strengthens its will to resolve it, North Korea will also actively engage in negotiations. The Trump administration discussed a bright future if North Korea abandoned its nuclear weapons, but it is difficult to persuade North Korea without concrete plans. Special Representative for North Korea Biegun tried to present detailed US support measures for North Korea as much as possible, but it was still insufficient. When the roadmap for lifting economic sanctions, as well as the US's plans for North Korea's self-help measures thereafter, are specific, the credibility of the guarantee for North Korea's regime will increase.

Importance of Separating Strategic Competition Between the US and China from the North Korean Nuclear Issue

China's active cooperation is also an important factor in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue. China has not expressed a particular stance on the Biden administration's North Korea policy review. The Biden administration has presented non-proliferation, along with environmental and health issues, as areas for cooperation with China. China also supports the goal of North Korea's denuclearization from the perspective of a great power adhering to international norms. The question is whether cooperation between the US and China on the North Korean nuclear issue can be secured amidst the intensifying strategic competition between the US and China. If North Korea-US relations improve during the denuclearization process and the future direction of North Korea's foreign policy becomes unpredictable, China is likely to approach the North Korean nuclear issue with greater vigilance amidst US-China strategic competition. Furthermore, in this South Korea-US summit, the leaders of South Korea and the US included content in their joint statement that effectively checks China in the South China Sea and Taiwan. If China perceives that South Korea is moving the South Korea-US alliance in a direction that checks China, it is uncertain what stance it will take on the North Korean nuclear issue. Since economic sanctions against North Korea are a key element of the North Korea policies of both South Korea and the US, China's maintenance of sanctions is a very important situation. It is important for both South Korea and the US to maintain the possibility of separating strategic competition between the US and China from the North Korean nuclear issue through diplomatic efforts. 

■ Jeon Jae-sung- Director of the EAI Center for National Security Studies and Professor at Seoul National University. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Northwestern University and has served as President of the International Political Science Association and as a policy advisor to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Unification. His main research areas include international political theory, history of international relations, the South Korea-US alliance, and Korean Peninsula studies. His major works and edited volumes include "Threats of War and Peace on the Korean Peninsula" (co-authored), "Is Politics Moral?", and "East Asian International Politics: From History to Theory."

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