[EAI Commentary] The Future of the Demolished Liaison Office

[Editor's Note]

Since North Korea demolished the inter-Korean liaison office on June 16, 2020, inter-Korean relations have once again deteriorated. Ha Young-sun, EAI Chairman and Professor Emeritus at Seoul National University, argues that the South Korean government should analyze North Korea's strategy within the framework of strengthening the three revolutionary capabilities, which began in the Kim Il-sung era, rather than responding superficially by banning the distribution of anti-North Korea leaflets or dissolving the 'South Korea-U.S. Working Group.' The author contends that North Korea must abandon this outdated blueprint and pursue a path befitting the 21st century, and that South Korea must also develop its own 21st-century blueprint for strengthening the three capabilities, which requires a renewed strengthening of domestic political capabilities.

North Korea demolished the inter-Korean joint liaison office, established in accordance with the April 27 Panmunjom Declaration, on June 16, 2020. As I watched the building collapse on video, the first thing that came to mind was the press conference held by Premier Kim Il-sung with Mainichi Shimbun two months after the July 4 South-North Joint Communiqué in 1972. He strongly criticized South Korea for not properly implementing the three principles of national unification and foreshadowed the tragic future of the July 4 Joint Communiqué.

The criticisms included: first, that South Korea, while issuing a joint communiqué, was employing a double-dealing tactic behind the scenes and not faithfully implementing the agreed-upon points; and second, that despite agreeing on peaceful means for unification, tensions were still being created in dialogues with North Korea. At the time, North Korea internally hoped for the withdrawal of U.S. forces in South Korea through improved inter-Korean relations via a peace offensive. Third, even after agreeing on national great unity, South Korean authorities had not reformed laws such as the 'Anti-Communist Law' and the 'National Security Law,' and were intensifying political oppression of the people. In a personal letter to Romanian President Ceaușescu around the same time, Premier Kim Il-sung emphasized the need to rapidly foster revolutionary forces and democratize South Korean society to resolve the inter-Korean situation. Ultimately, the July 4 Joint Communiqué, the first agreement between North and South Korea since the Korean War, was abandoned after just over a year.

Premier Kim Il-sung's press conference half a century ago remains significant because the thinking of Chairman Kim Jong-un, who decided to demolish the inter-Korean joint liaison office, has not significantly surpassed his grandfather's vision at the time. In the mid-1960s, as the rapidly changing world order made the theory of unification by force unsustainable, Premier Kim Il-sung adopted a new theory of unification through revolution, aimed at strengthening the revolutionary capabilities of North Korea, South Korea, and other countries. Based on this new revolutionary unification theory, North Korea specified its content as the three principles of national unification in the July 4 South-North Joint Communiqué in the early 1970s. Since then, North Korea's actions have not deviated significantly from the fundamental perspective and language of strengthening the three revolutionary capabilities, as seen in the Basic Agreement between North and South Korea in December 1991, the June 15 Inter-Korean Joint Declaration of 2000, the October 4 Declaration of 2007, and the April 27 Panmunjom Declaration and September 19 Pyongyang Joint Declaration of 2018.

Therefore, to devise effective measures for the future of the demolished liaison office, instead of being preoccupied with superficial symptomatic treatments like banning the distribution of anti-North Korea leaflets or dissolving the South Korea-U.S. Working Group, it is necessary to first deeply analyze North Korea's words and actions since the failure of the North Korea-U.S. summit in Hanoi at the end of February 2019, from the perspective of the survival strategy of strengthening the three revolutionary capabilities. In his policy address at the first session of the 14th Supreme People's Assembly on April 11, Chairman Kim Jong-un delivered a speech aligned with the basic framework of strengthening the three revolutionary capabilities, titled 'On Socialist Construction and the Republic's Foreign and Domestic Policies at the Present Stage.' First, he emphasized the Juche revolutionary line, the idea of prioritizing the masses, and the Party's leadership as principles for building a socialist power. Second, he pointed to the development of a self-reliant economy, the strengthening of political and military power, the development of socialist culture, and the enhancement of the functions and roles of people's government bodies for strengthening North Korea's revolutionary capabilities. Third, regarding the strengthening of South Korea's revolutionary capabilities, he positively evaluated the Panmunjom Declaration and the September 19 Pyongyang Joint Declaration, but stressed that if South Korea genuinely desires inter-Korean relations improvement, peace, and unification, it 'must not, while watching the trend, engage in hasty actions and play the role of an overzealous 'mediator' or 'facilitator,' but must, as a member of the nation, have its wits about it, speak its mind confidently, and become a party that defends the nation's interests,' and emphasized that 'to keep alive the atmosphere of improving inter-Korean relations, we must crush the machinations of hostile internal and external anti-unification and anti-peace forces.' Fourth, regarding the strengthening of international revolutionary capabilities, he meaningfully evaluated the June 12 Singapore North Korea-U.S. Joint Statement of 2018, but raised strong doubts about the February 2019 Hanoi North Korea-U.S. Summit, stating that the summit failed because the United States mistakenly believed it could subdue North Korea by imposing maximum sanctions without withdrawing its hostile policy, which is the fundamental way to establish a new North Korea-U.S. relationship. Therefore, he argued that if a third North Korea-U.S. summit is to be held, the United States must devise a new calculation method different from the current one.

Eight months after his policy address, at the 5th Plenary Meeting of the 7th Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea in late December, Chairman Kim Jong-un once again presented a blueprint 'to overcome the unprecedentedly severe difficulties head-on, to defend the nation's sovereignty and supreme interests to the end, and to open a path to victory for the Juche revolutionary cause under the banner of self-reliance and national prosperity.' First, in his analysis of the current situation, he stated, 'The challenges we have faced in the past few months were harsh and perilous storms that would have caused others to collapse and retreat within a single day, but no difficulties could stop or delay the advance of our people who move forward united and unyielding.' He declared that the main spirit of the plenary meeting was to overcome objective factors by launching a frontal assault rather than waiting for the situation to improve.

Furthermore, North Korea emphasizes the U.S. hostile policy toward North Korea as its greatest threat. As the year-end deadline for the new U.S. calculation method proposed by North Korea passed without tangible results, North Korea pointed out that the prolonged U.S. hostile policy toward North Korea has pushed the situation on the Korean Peninsula to a more dangerous and grave stage. Therefore, North Korea will continue to strengthen its military capabilities to deter the other party, and in the face of increasing hostile actions and nuclear threats, it cannot sacrifice its future security for the lifting of current sanctions, thus confidently stating that new strategic weapons will be witnessed soon. At the same time, it states that sanctions must be countered with self-reliance. Therefore, it points out issues that need to be corrected in national management and economic activities to strengthen self-reliance.

North Korea's efforts to overcome the difficulties of 2019 head-on are facing an even more challenging phase in 2020 with the global spread of the coronavirus. The strengthening of domestic and international capabilities has hit a wall. Moreover, the improvement in inter-Korean relations achieved over the past two years, which was expected to contribute to the strengthening of domestic and international capabilities, has yielded no significant results. Consequently, First Vice Department Director Kim Yo-jong of North Korea issued strong condemnations twice in mid-June regarding two mistakes by the South Korean government related to the distribution of anti-North Korea leaflets and the 'South Korea-U.S. Working Group.' In her first statement, she said, 'We think it is time to part ways with the South Koreans,' and in her second statement, she said, 'In any case, the South Korean authorities are now unable to do anything with us and have been left behind.' This is a threat that there is no future for inter-Korean relations unless the South Korean government repents its two sins and chooses a new path. The fundamental issue with the distribution of anti-North Korea leaflets is that it insulted the supreme dignity, which North Korea sanctifies for the strengthening of its domestic revolutionary capabilities. Therefore, North Korea is demanding that South Korea's policymakers choose between being a traitor and a trustworthy party in the principle of national unity of the July 4 Joint Communiqué. Next, the issue raised regarding the 'South Korea-U.S. Working Group,' which is currently cooperating on inter-Korean issues, is not merely a practical matter. It is a demand to ultimately choose between national independence and alliance subservience. Despite Chairman Kim Jong-un's order to suspend military action against South Korea on June 23, Kim Yo-jong's threatening statements clearly show North Korea's true intentions.

Domestic and international attention is focused on tactically resolving the two issues of anti-North Korea leaflet distribution and the South Korea-U.S. Working Group. However, the core of the problem lies elsewhere entirely. North Korea's fundamental blueprint for reconstruction is still based on strengthening the three revolutionary capabilities from half a century ago. Therefore, if South Korea agrees in principle to North Korea's blueprint, as it did during the July 4 Joint Communiqué, reconstruction can begin in the short term. However, the larger problem is that North Korea's outdated blueprint makes it impossible to build a leading civilized nation in the 21st century Korean Peninsula. Instead, it will wander in the back alleys of history as a backward country for a long time.

What is urgently needed is a South Korean-style blueprint for strengthening the three capabilities in the 21st century. True sunshine policy based on this blueprint involves embracing a future North Korea suitable for the 21st century. To this end, North Korea must be encouraged to embark on a path of reorganization suitable for the 21st century in all areas, including politics, economy, society, culture, ecology, and technology. Simultaneously, South Korea must be reborn as a leading civilized nation in the 21st century and, together with relevant neighboring countries, assist North Korea's advancement. For this reconstruction of the Korean Peninsula, above all, a renewed strengthening of domestic political capabilities with a vision befitting the 21st century will be necessary. ■

EAI Commentary Audio

■ Author: Ha Young-sun_ Chairman of EAI, Professor Emeritus at Seoul National University. He received his Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Washington and served as a professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Seoul National University, Director of the Institute for International Affairs, Director of the Institute for American Studies, and President of the Korean Association of Peace Studies. His major works include 'Complex World Politics: Strategy, Principles, and a New Order,' 'A New Era of Korea-Japan and Symbiotic Complex Networks,' 'Transforming World Politics,' 'The Competition for Asia-Pacific Order Construction between China and the U.S.,' 'A Correct View of Korean Diplomatic History: Tradition and Modernity,' and 'World Politics of Love: War and Peace.'

■ Contact and Editing: Seo Ju-won, EAI Researcher

Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 206) jwseo@eai.or.kr

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