EAI Commentary: The Results of Germany's 19th Federal Election and a United Europe

[Editor's Note]

Chancellor Merkel achieved a hard-won victory in the German federal election held on September 24, contrary to expectations. Although she secured a fourth term, her political standing has relatively weakened due to a significant drop in the ruling coalition's approval ratings and the rise of a far-right party as the third-largest force in parliament. Furthermore, the Social Democratic Party's refusal to enter a grand coalition has necessitated the formation of a new coalition government. Currently, the 'Jamaica' model, involving a coalition of the CDU/CSU, the Free Democratic Party (FDP), and the Greens, is considered the most likely scenario, according to Professor Kim Myeon-hoe of Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. While some argue that forming a coalition government will be difficult due to the differing stances of the FDP and the Greens on refugee and Eurozone policies, this is not impossible, considering instances of coalition governments formed at the state level. Professor Kim predicts that a Jamaica coalition government would not bring about significant changes in Germany's European integration policy.

Following the federal election (Bundestag election) held on September 24, German politics has been in turmoil. Given Germany's leading role in European integration, the election results have elicited notable reactions from various European countries. This is because the election outcome deviated from expectations. The bewilderment of the parties that received lower-than-expected support is evident. Discussions surrounding the future direction of politics after the election are also unfolding in a complex manner. Immediately after the election results were announced, some hastily raised the possibility of a snap election, while others discussed unconventional coalition government models involving various political forces. The expected smooth victory for incumbent Chancellor Angela Merkel and the ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU) by most media outlets and polling agencies did not materialize. Due to these inaccurate predictions, the political landscape is unlikely to return to normalcy anytime soon. Consequently, analyses, interpretations, and forecasts of the results of Germany's 19th federal election are ongoing.

The results of Germany's 19th federal election can be summarized by the following five characteristics. First, the far-right political force, 'Alternative for Germany' (AfD), has finally entered the Bundestag. The AfD, which clearly opposes deeper European integration and refugee reception policies, advocating for national interests, secured a support rate of 12.6%, more than double its performance in the previous election (4.7%), thus becoming the third-largest party in parliament. This development marks a new phase in contemporary German politics since 1949. The assessment by political scientist Holtmann that Germany was one of the European countries without a far-right party in parliament is no longer accurate. Following its successive successes in state elections, the AfD has now established itself as a significant political force in Germany by demonstrating a solid voter base at the federal level.

Second, the support ratings for the CDU/CSU and the SPD, the two major parties that have dominated German politics, have sharply declined. In the recent election, the CDU/CSU and the SPD garnered only 32.9% and 20.5% of the vote, respectively. These figures represent a decrease of 8.6 and 5.2 percentage points compared to their support in the previous election. This is also the lowest vote share these two major parties have achieved in over 60 years. The combined support for the two major parties in this election was a mere 53.4%. In contrast, the FDP, a minor party, secured 10.7% and successfully re-entered parliament, while other minor parties, the Left Party and the Greens, obtained 9.2% and 8.9% respectively, securing their seats in the Bundestag. Additionally, the AfD secured a significant 94 out of the total 709 seats, making its debut in the Bundestag and emerging as a new minor party. Considering that the combined support for the two major parties traditionally exceeded 65%, their diminished proportion is evident. The sharp decline in support for the two major parties, coupled with the rise of minor parties and party fragmentation, has intensified doubts about the German party system, which has long been lauded for its ability to ensure stable and efficient governance.

Third, the political standing of the SPD, the leading representative of the established left advocating for 'more justice' (mehr Gerechtigkeit), has drastically fallen during the election campaign. The SPD's support, which reached a peak of 46% during Chancellor Willy Brandt's tenure, has been on a downward trend since then. After obtaining 23% of the vote in the 2009 federal election, the SPD saw a slight increase to 25.7% in the 2013 election, but ultimately settled for a record low of 20.5% in the recent election. The fragmentation of the Green Party into a distinct entity and the growth of the Left Party (Die Linke), which emerged after German reunification, have limited the SPD's ability to maintain a solid voter base. Since 2005, during two periods of grand coalition with the CDU/CSU, the SPD failed to present a renewed image capable of reversing this trend, resulting in its worst-ever electoral performance. The German SPD is facing a crisis. In this context, it is unlikely that the SPD will participate in another grand coalition, and demands for a clear ideological positioning befitting a left-wing party are expected to intensify within the party.

Fourth, from the perspective of power dynamics, the election results can be characterized as a victory for the right over the left. The SPD's support has plummeted, and the Greens and the Left Party, classified as established left-wing forces, had to settle for support levels similar to the previous election, which can be interpreted as maintaining the status quo. The Greens, who proclaimed "The future is built on unwavering will," only managed to increase their support by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous election, while the Left Party, which challenged the SPD's pragmatic approach, saw a marginal increase of 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, the CDU's decline in support, driven by its more conservative stance and the successful performance of the FDP, which campaigned under the slogan "Let's think anew" (Denken wir neu), and the sharp rise in support for the AfD, resulted in a significant shift in the balance of power within parliament towards the right. The FDP achieved a remarkable 10.7% of the vote, an increase of 5.9 percentage points from the previous election. This provides a rough indication of the future direction of German politics.

Fifth, despite being derided as a "hollow victory," Chancellor Merkel succeeded in securing a fourth term in office. Merkel, who holds the records for being Germany's first female chancellor, the youngest chancellor in post-war history, and the first chancellor from East Germany to lead a unified Germany, has consistently maintained her position as the leader of the largest party in parliament since 2005, becoming the central figure of a "democratic" 16-year long tenure. This allows her to serve as chancellor for the same duration as her "political father," former Chancellor Helmut Kohl. Although she failed to secure the expected level of support, Merkel is expected to proactively address the new environment and formulate response strategies based on her extensive experience in governance and her proven ability to manage domestic and international affairs.

The immediate challenge facing German politics after the election is the formation of a coalition government. In German politics, where no single party can secure an absolute majority, the formation of a coalition government is always a necessary step after an election. The currently feasible combinations are a grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD, or a so-called 'Jamaica' coalition involving the CDU/CSU, the FDP, and the Greens. This is because, with the AfD being thoroughly rejected by the established parties, only these two combinations can secure more than 355 seats, which is a majority of the total 709 seats. However, given the SPD's firm reiteration that it will not participate in a grand coalition, the formation of the latter coalition government is the most likely scenario. The question remains whether the formation of a coalition government among the CDU/CSU, the FDP, and the Greens is feasible. Until now, there has been no experience of forming a coalition government at the federal level among these three parties, and the prevailing perception was that forming such a coalition would be difficult due to their divergent political orientations.

However, the possibility of forming a coalition government among these three parties is gaining momentum, given that they have already tested such a coalition at the state level and that there are significant similarities, not just differences, in their policy approaches. A coalition government among these three forces was first formed in the state of Saarland in 2009, and a Jamaica coalition government is currently operating in the state of Schleswig-Holstein. The experience of operating coalition governments at the state level among these three parties is expected to facilitate the formation of a coalition government at the federal level. Those who are skeptical about the formation of a Jamaica coalition government cite the differing stances of the FDP and the Greens as their primary reason. It is true that these two parties exhibit clear differences in their positions regarding climate change response strategies, refugee policies centered on a cap on refugee numbers, and strategies for overcoming the Eurozone crisis, emphasizing their respective identities. However, in areas such as information technology and economic policy, these two parties pursue nearly identical objectives. Merkel's political acumen will be required and demonstrated in the arduous process of reaching a coalition agreement over the next several months, where she will need to play the role of a mediator.

However, the emergence of a Jamaica coalition government will not bring about drastic changes in Germany's European integration policy. This is because Germany, which benefits the most from a united Europe, has no reason to unilaterally alter its existing policies. There are also no significant differences in European policy among the parties likely to participate in a Jamaica coalition. This explains why it is predictable that the Merkel-led Jamaica coalition government will continue existing policies, despite the CDU's weakened relative position due to declining support. Under the principle that "a stronger Europe means a stronger Germany," the new government will largely maintain its existing policies. The Jamaica coalition government will continue to adhere to the austerity policy of CDU Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, the 'Schwarze Null' (black zero) line, and the principle that a united Europe can never become a 'debt community' (Vergemeinschaft von Schulden). ■

Author

Kim Myeon-hoe_ Professor of Political Science and International Relations, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, and Director of the Institute for Global Political Studies. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Freie Universität Berlin. His main research areas include German politics, European integration, and German labor unions. His representative works include "Democracy in Europe: New Challenges and Tasks" (co-authored), "Germany's Peaceful Unification and 20 Years of Development in Unified Germany" (co-authored), "25 Years After Unification: A Study on the Changes in the Political Landscape of Former East German Regions," and "A Study on the Factors Behind the Growth of Far-Right Political Forces in Germany: Party Decline and Changes in the Party System."

The EAI Commentary is a commentary series designed to provide a platform for experts from various fields to express their opinions through in-depth analysis and present policy recommendations on major domestic and international issues. Please cite the source when quoting.

EAI is an independent research institution, unaffiliated with any political faction. The views and opinions expressed in reports, journals, and books published by EAI are solely those of the authors and do not represent the views of EAI.