[New Year Special Commentary Series - EAI 2020 Outlook and Strategy] I. North Korea's 2020: A Frontal Breakthrough of Two Great Difficulties

Editor's Note

To mark the year 2020, EAI is publishing a series of six special New Year commentaries titled "EAI 2020 Outlook and Strategy."

1. Ha Young-sun: North Korea's 2020: A Frontal Breakthrough of Two Great Difficulties (Published January 6, 2020)

2. Chun Jae-sung: South Korea's Strategy for US-China Relations and its Strategy toward the US in 2020 (Scheduled for publication January 8, 2020)

3. Lee Dong-ryul: South Korea-China Relations and South Korea's Strategy toward China (Scheduled for publication January 13, 2020)

4. Sohn Yeol: South Korea-Japan Relations and Policy toward Japan in 2020: Conflict Resolution Visible by Broadening Perspectives (Scheduled for publication January 15, 2020)

5. Lee Seung-joo: US-China Trade Dispute and South Korea's Trade Policy: Middle Power Diplomacy for the Recovery of Multilateralism and the Restructuring of the Regional Economic Order (Scheduled for publication January 20, 2020)

6. Choi Tae-wook: Electoral System Reform in 2019 and the General Election in 2020: Outlook and Tasks (Scheduled for publication January 22, 2020)

As the first report in the special New Year commentary series "EAI 2020 Outlook and Strategy," a commentary by EAI Chairman Ha Young-sun presenting North Korea's outlook and strategy for 2020 has been published. Compared to previous policy speeches, the report 'On Our Party's Immediate Struggle Direction Under the Given Internal and External Situation,' delivered at the 5th Plenary Meeting of the 7th Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea in December 2019, particularly emphasized the internal and external difficulties facing North Korea, pointing to sanctions and pressure externally and the construction of a socialist power internally, thereby revealing its will to overcome them. North Korea has declared the introduction of new strategic weapons and a second 'Byungjin' (parallel development of economy and nuclear weapons) line to break through these difficulties, confirming its will for economic struggle through self-reliance and declaring a frontal breakthrough against internal and external challenges. However, the author argues that North Korea's outdated frontal breakthrough strategy will not overcome the difficulties it faces. This is because North Korea's continuous nuclear development, which directly threatens US security, will paradoxically threaten its own regime rather than guarantee it, and it is difficult to imagine sanctions relief without denuclearization. The author contends that South Korea's true role for North Korea, facing such difficulties, is to work in solidarity with the international community to create a path for North Korea's domestic capabilities to advance on their own.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's report, "On Our Party's Immediate Struggle Direction Under the Given Internal and External Situation," delivered at the 5th Plenary Meeting of the 7th Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea at the end of 2019, served as his New Year's address for 2020. This was the first report issued eight months after his policy speech at the Supreme People's Assembly in April of the previous year, titled "On the Construction of Socialism and the DPRK Government's Internal and External Policies at the Present Stage." Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to how North Korea subjectively assesses the internal and external situation thus far and what new countermeasures it is devising.

Compared to the April policy speech, the December report particularly emphasizes the difficulties in the internal and external situation. Kim Jong-un assessed the internal and external situation as "a harsh and perilous ordeal that others would not have endured for even a single day," and thus has set the slogan for this year's struggle as "Let us break through all obstacles hindering our advance with a frontal breakthrough!"

The report analyzes the internal and external situation, particularly emphasizing the external difficulties of sanctions and pressure, and the internal difficulties of building a socialist power. First, Kim Jong-un points out the challenges encountered in the process of implementing North Korea's three-stage denuclearization theory. This assertion has been repeated since the adoption of the new strategic line in April 2018 and in Kim Myong-gil's press conference following the failure of working-level talks in Stockholm in early October. The first stage involves suspending nuclear tests and intercontinental ballistic missile test launches and dismantling the nuclear test site as a preemptive confidence-building measure to induce the suspension of ROK-US joint military exercises. The second stage involves closing the Yongbyon nuclear facility in exchange for the termination of hostile policy toward North Korea and the easing of economic sanctions based on the principle of "action for action." The third stage proposes a nuclear disarmament conference on the Korean Peninsula and in the surrounding region from the perspective of "denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula" for complete denuclearization.

However, North Korea declared, "Our external environment has not changed at all, whether we are pursuing the path of Byungjin or are engaged in the struggle to concentrate all efforts on economic construction, and in the reality where hostile acts and nuclear threats and blackmail are increasing, we cannot abandon future security for visible economic achievements and prosperity." It further confirmed that "the world will soon witness the new strategic weapons that the Democratic People's Republic of Korea will possess." North Korea is emphasizing a second Byungjin line, having shifted from the nuclear-economic Byungjin line in March 2013 to the concentrated economic construction line based on nuclear weapons in April 2018.

However, the frontal breakthrough strategy, which aims to secure practical deterrence by directly threatening US security through continuous nuclear weapon development, will lead to an exacerbation rather than a breakthrough of the external difficulties facing North Korea. This is because the more North Korea's nuclear deterrence is strengthened, the more sanctions will intensify, paradoxically threatening its regime rather than guaranteeing it. At the same time, the United States, which regards the principle of nuclear non-proliferation as a fundamental tenet of its world order, will find it difficult to realistically accept North Korea's efforts to maintain minimal deterrence through a nuclear freeze instead of complete denuclearization.

The report, secondly, points out that the main front for overcoming the difficulties of building a socialist power through a frontal breakthrough is the economic front, presenting the immediate priority task in the economic sector as reorganizing the economic foundation and mobilizing all available production capacities to sufficiently guarantee the demands for economic development and the people's livelihood.

Kim Jong-un mentioned that despite "the relentless sanctions by hostile forces," almost all sectors of the people's economy showed a significant growth trend in 2019. However, regarding the current economic situation, he pointed out that "the driving force for the development of the national economy has not been restored, so the country's situation has not noticeably improved, and the state's executive power and control capacity to resolve important economic tasks are weak."

The report identifies the biggest problem facing the North Korean economy as the confrontation between self-reliance and sanctions. However, it emphasizes, "While it is true that a favorable external environment for economic construction is urgently needed, we cannot sell the dignity we have protected like our lives for a splendid transformation." Therefore, if North Korea does not accelerate its struggle to foster self-reliance while waiting for sanctions relief, the offensive of the sanctioning forces will intensify, and thus it is determined to engage in a frontal breakthrough to completely shatter the sanctions and blockade through the power of self-reliance.

However, the economic front facing North Korea cannot be overcome by self-reliance alone. China's economy has achieved the world's second-largest GDP of $14 trillion, second only to the United States, and a per capita income of $10,000, because it has undergone rapid growth for over 40 years since 1978 through its reform and opening-up policy. For North Korea's economy, with a per capita income of $1,000, to survive in the 21st-century global economic arena, it requires sustained high growth surpassing that of China. To achieve this, sanctions relief through denuclearization is not an option but a necessity.

Concluding the report, Kim Jong-un stated that by uniting around the Party, the General Staff of the Revolution, "We must not seek a path of conforming to objective factors and being dominated by them in today's struggle, but must break through with a frontal breakthrough and make objective factors subservient to us." However, it is impossible to successfully overcome the current difficulties through nuclear deterrence and self-reliance. North Korea's true frontal breakthrough lies in successfully building a system that can protect its cherished safety and dignity while pursuing the path of denuclearization and an open economy.

In this report, unlike its previous policy speech, North Korea does not address inter-Korean relations at all, focusing exclusively on international and domestic capabilities. This is because South Korean capabilities, which cannot operate independently of international capabilities, are unlikely to provide significant assistance to North Korea's old frontal breakthrough strategy. South Korea's true role here is to work in solidarity with the international community to create a path for North Korea's domestic capabilities to advance on their own. North Korea will be able to overcome its current difficulties when it chooses a new frontal breakthrough strategy instead of its old one. ■

■ Author: Ha Young-sun, Chairman of EAI, Professor Emeritus at Seoul National University. He received his Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Washington, USA, and has served as Professor at the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Seoul National University, Director of the Institute for International Affairs at Seoul National University, Director of the Center for American Studies, and President of the Korean Association of Peace Studies. His major works include "Complex World Politics: Strategy, Principles, and a New Order," "Korea-Japan New Era and Symbiotic Complex Networks," "World Politics of Transformation," "US-China Competition in Building the Asia-Pacific Order," "A Correct View of Korean Diplomatic History: Tradition and Modernity," and "World Politics of Love: War and Peace."

■ Managed and Edited by: Yoon Jun-il, EAI Research Fellow

Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 203) I junilyoon@eai.or.kr

[EAI Commentary] is a commentary series planned to provide a forum for experts from various fields to offer in-depth analyses and policy recommendations on major domestic and international issues. Please cite the source when quoting. EAI is an independent research institution independent of any partisan interests. The claims and opinions expressed in reports, journals, and books published by EAI are not attributable to EAI and are solely the views of the respective authors.