[EAI Commentary No. 6] The U.S. 2010 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) and the Nuclear Security Summit

Dr. Lee Sang-hyun holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and is currently the Director of the Security Studies Program at the Sejong Institute. He previously served as a researcher at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy and the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses.

The 2010 NPR and the Nuclear Security Summit

The Obama administration's Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) report has finally been released. The purpose of the NPR is to set forth U.S. nuclear policy and strategy, objectives, capabilities, and posture for the next 5-10 years from the time of its publication. Since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. has conducted two NPRs, during the Clinton administration (1994) and the George W. Bush administration (2002); this is the third. The NPR is one of four strategic defense posture review reports conducted by the Department of Defense, alongside the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), the Ballistic Missile Defense Review (BMDR), and the Space Posture Review (SPR).

The objectives of the U.S. nuclear strategy presented in the 2010 NPR can be briefly summarized as follows.

First, it emphasized the prevention of nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism. For the first time in the history of U.S. nuclear strategy, it declared that the highest priority of nuclear policy is to prevent the increase of nuclear-weapon states and to prevent nuclear terrorism, where terrorist organizations acquire nuclear weapons, thereby proclaiming a strong non-proliferation commitment. To this end, it announced the strengthening of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and enhanced international cooperation to prevent the smuggling or theft of nuclear materials. To demonstrate U.S. resolve, it announced its intention to pursue the ratification of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), and the Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT).

Second, it declared a reduction in the role of nuclear weapons. That is, it expressed its intention to reduce reliance on nuclear weapons as a policy tool and to decrease their overall numbers. However, it formalized Negative Security Assurances (NSA), a pledge not to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states that are in compliance with their non-proliferation obligations. This contrasts with President George W. Bush's 2002 NPR, which suggested the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons against biological or chemical weapons or terrorist bases. Nevertheless, it made clear that countries that have withdrawn from or violated the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) would be subject to nuclear attack in case of contingency.

Third, it stated that it would lower the level of its nuclear arsenal while maintaining strategic deterrence and stability. To this end, the U.S. presented measures to establish stable relations with nuclear powers such as Russia and China to maintain strategic deterrence and stability and prevent nuclear war due to miscalculation. The Obama administration has already concluded a follow-on agreement to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) with Russia. The New START treaty limits nuclear warheads to 1,550 and strategic delivery vehicles to 800. However, the nuclear triad will be maintained, and all Multiple Independently-targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs) will be reduced to single warheads (de-MIRVed).

Fourth, it reaffirmed the provision of extended deterrence to allies. With the reduced role of nuclear weapons in U.S. security strategy, this NPR emphasized that the role of non-nuclear capabilities in deterrence for allies and partners will increase, while reiterating that the provision of extended deterrence to allies will remain unchanged.

Fifth, it will maintain a safe, secure, and effective nuclear stockpile. Without additional nuclear testing or warhead development, an effective nuclear stockpile will be maintained using only proven technologies and components. To this end, investment in the Life Extension Program for warheads, nuclear research facilities, and nuclear expertise will be strengthened.

Meanwhile, immediately following the release of the NPR on April 12-13, the first Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) was held in Washington. The NSS is the first step in implementing President Obama's vision of a 'world without nuclear weapons,' proclaimed in Prague in April of the previous year. The meeting was attended by 47 countries, including the five recognized nuclear-weapon states (the U.S., UK, China, France, and Russia), as well as non-recognized nuclear-weapon states like India, Pakistan, and Israel, and countries currently operating nuclear reactors. Additionally, representatives from the UN, the IAEA, and the European Union attended, solidifying its position as the premier global forum for all nations and organizations possessing nuclear weapons or involved in nuclear energy utilization. The summit focused on strengthening nuclear security and jointly responding to nuclear terrorism, with discussions centered on preventing terrorist groups from accessing nuclear materials and preventing nuclear proliferation. Following the 9/11 attacks, the threat of nuclear terrorism to the entire globe, not just the U.S., becomes a reality if non-state actors like Al-Qaeda, rather than formal states, possess nuclear weapons. The summit also addressed issues concerning countries that have violated or withdrawn from the NPT, such as Iran and North Korea, drawing attention to their future responses.

NPR, NSS, and the NPT Review Conference

U.S. nuclear strategy needs to be viewed in conjunction with the Nuclear Security Summit and the NPT Review Conference, which began on May 3rd, in addition to the NPR. Kicking off with the release of the NPR report on April 6th, the momentum continued with the signing of the New START agreement between the U.S. and Russia (April 8th, Prague, Czech Republic) and the hosting of the Nuclear Security Summit (April 12-13th, Washington D.C.). The grand discourse for denuclearization will undergo its final review and assessment at the NPT Review Conference. U.S. Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Ellen Tauscher described the NPT Review Conference as an event that

The fundamental direction of the new NPR is largely consistent with President Obama's statement on March 5th, marking the 40th anniversary of the NPT's entry into force, where he expressed his commitment to reducing nuclear weapons by stating that the U.S. would reduce both the number and role of nuclear weapons going forward. In his statement, President Obama emphasized that the U.S. would reduce the number and role of nuclear weapons in its national security strategy while maintaining safe, secure, and effective nuclear deterrence. He noted that nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation, and the peaceful use of nuclear energy were the core elements of the vision he articulated in his Prague speech. However, the Obama administration's NPR, by emphasizing a flexible approach that considers context and circumstances in conjunction with conventional forces and missile defense systems, exhibits characteristics similar to the flexible response strategy of the Kennedy administration.

However, it remains uncertain whether U.S. nuclear strategy can create a 'world without nuclear weapons' as Obama hopes. Although it emphasizes reducing the role of nuclear weapons and denuclearization, the Obama administration realistically acknowledges the role and function of nuclear weapons in deterring adversaries and ensuring the defense of allies. U.S. nuclear strategy pursues seemingly contradictory goals of reducing nuclear dependence while simultaneously strengthening nuclear deterrence. Diverse opinions within the U.S. generally agree with the basic direction of nuclear reduction, but the prevailing view is that it should not be implemented in a way that compromises U.S. security. Furthermore, some argue that the U.S. needs to maintain a degree of 'calculated ambiguity' by making it clear that while it will not engage in the first use of nuclear weapons (policy of no-first-use), they could be used in extreme circumstances.

NPR and the Korean Peninsula

The U.S. nuclear posture is expected to have a certain impact on U.S. allies, including South Korea. In particular, Eastern European countries that experienced the Soviet threat are concerned that the declaration of abandoning the first use of nuclear weapons might incite provocations from other nuclear-weapon states. Moreover, if allies such as Japan and Turkey do not fully trust the U.S. nuclear umbrella, the possibility of them developing their own nuclear weapons arises.

To accurately understand the security implications of the NPR for South Korea, a comprehensive analysis of the U.S. strategic defense posture is necessary, in addition to the relationship between key reports such as the QDR and BMDR. Such an analysis will enable us to foresee the security impact on South Korea. The QDR mentioned the forward deployment and rotational deployment of U.S. forces, which can be interpreted as suggesting an increase in the strategic flexibility of U.S. Forces Korea. The NPR indicated a reduction in the role and number of nuclear weapons, suggesting the possibility of a weakening of extended nuclear deterrence, regardless of U.S. intentions. The U.S. Department of Defense plans to complete the retirement of nuclear-armed Tomahawk missiles within the next two to three years and stated that extended deterrence for Northeast Asian allies such as South Korea and Japan would not be an issue even without Tomahawk missiles. Nevertheless, from South Korea's perspective, it is necessary to strengthen extended nuclear deterrence through the consolidation of the ROK-U.S. strategic alliance, while simultaneously enhancing its non-nuclear deterrence capabilities against North Korea (sensors, early warning, precision strike, cruise missiles, etc.).

Regarding the Korean Peninsula, the core issue remains North Korea's nuclear program. North Korea has already strongly reacted to the Obama administration's NPR. On April 9th, North Korea stated, "As long as the U.S. nuclear threat continues, we will increase and modernize various nuclear weapons as needed in the future." The Foreign Ministry spokesperson criticized the NPR for excluding North Korea and Iran from the scope of negative security assurances, stating that it showed no change from the policies of the early Bush administration. Furthermore, in a memorandum released on April 21st, the North Korean Foreign Ministry asserted that it would strive for denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the world, regardless of the resumption of the Six-Party Talks. The memorandum claimed that North Korea would produce nuclear weapons as needed but would not participate in a nuclear arms race or excessively produce nuclear weapons, and would participate in international nuclear disarmament efforts on an equal footing with other nuclear-weapon states. Since its first nuclear test in October 2006, North Korea has consistently claimed its status as a nuclear-weapon state and advocated for nuclear disarmament. Regardless of international recognition, North Korea intends to act as a de facto nuclear-weapon state. This assertion by North Korea is interpreted as a tactic to increase its bargaining power by leveraging its status as a nuclear-weapon state in future negotiations.

While North Korea's claim to nuclear-weapon state status is not new, its position statement comes at a time when the prospects for resuming the Six-Party Talks are uncertain due to the Cheonan incident. North Korea's actions are interpreted as an attempt to secure economic assistance from China by offering the resumption of the Six-Party Talks as a bargaining chip, while simultaneously dispelling international suspicion focused on North Korea following the Cheonan incident and blocking the ROK-U.S. efforts to determine the cause of the Cheonan incident before Six-Party Talks. Chairman Kim Jong-il's sudden visit to China is assessed as increasing the likelihood of this scenario. Even if North Korea returns to the Six-Party Talks, it is likely to attempt to delay the negotiation process as much as possible, solidify its status as a nuclear-weapon state, and reap only the benefits of compensation during the negotiations. If this is North Korea's intention, it must realize that it will become a public enemy of a 'world without nuclear weapons.' North Korea should not take lightly Obama's designation of it as an 'outlier' and its exclusion from the scope of negative security assurances. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's statement that North Korea is believed to possess 1 to 6 nuclear weapons was not an acknowledgment of North Korea as a nuclear-weapon state, but an emphasis on the need for North Korea to dismantle any nuclear weapons it may possess. North Korea must realize that becoming a 'nuclear-armed strong nation' is a vain dream and immediately return to the Six-Party Talks to engage seriously in denuclearization negotiations.

President Lee Myung-bak also attended the Washington Nuclear Security Summit, where he introduced South Korea's non-proliferation efforts and actively promoted its advanced nuclear power plant operation system and nuclear security framework, achieving the successful bid to host the second Nuclear Security Summit in 2012. In fact, although nuclear power accounts for nearly 40% of our total electricity production, we suffer significant disadvantages due to the North Korean nuclear issue. In this regard, South Korea's hosting of the second Nuclear Security Summit in 2012 holds great significance. The government should actively utilize such international conferences as an opportunity to widely publicize our commitment to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula to the world and to expand our right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy guaranteed under the NPT framework.

The Obama administration's new NPR can be considered the first step towards a 'world without nuclear weapons.' While the obstacles that lie ahead are unknown, this is undoubtedly an ambitious vision and an appeal to the world to jointly address the security threats facing humanity today. It remains to be seen what compromises he will find between ideals and reality, and how the international community will respond to his appeal.■

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