[Public Opinion Briefing] Key Results and Evaluation of EAI's 2017 Presidential Panel Survey (2nd Round)

I. Characteristics of the 2017 Presidential Election

1. High Fluctuation in Preferred Candidate During the Campaign Period

- The rate of change in preferred candidates was 36.2%, more than double that of the 2012 presidential election.

- Similar fluctuation pattern to the 2007 presidential election, which was a multi-candidate race with a dominant opposition candidate.

2. Timing of Deciding Preferred Candidate- 46.8% decided their preferred candidate within the last week before voting.

- Supporters of Moon Jae-in tended to decide earlier, while supporters of other candidates decided at the last minute.

3. Path of Preferred Candidate Fluctuation: From Whom to Whom?- Ahn Cheol-soo saw a 12.6 percentage point drop in support, with 6.5 percentage points moving to Hong and 5.7 percentage points to Moon.

- Hong Joon-pyo lost the least and gained the most.

4. Reasons for Preferred Candidate Fluctuation: Why the Change?

- Ahn Cheol-soo's support dropped by 4.9 percentage points due to "disappointment with the TV debates."

- Low perceived electability (3.8 percentage points) and concerns about state management capabilities (3.1 percentage points) also contributed to the decline.

5. Did TV Debates Truly Influence Voting?- Confirmation bias significantly decreased, while changes in preferred candidates increased by more than 5-6 times.

- Ahn Cheol-soo's poor performance in the TV debates was a decisive factor in his declining support.

II. Analysis of Voting Factors

1. Candidate Factors- Moon Jae-in held an advantage in favorability, morality, and state management capabilities.

- Moon Jae-in's favorability improved during the election period: the proportion of those who "disliked" him was halved to 14.1%.

- Ahn Cheol-soo and Hong Joon-pyo ranked 4th and 5th, respectively, in all three areas.

2. Party Factors- The Democratic Party of Korea increased by 8.7 percentage points to 46.9% during the election period, ranking overwhelmingly first.

- Only the People's Party saw a significant drop of 7.1 percentage points.

- 10.7% of Moon Jae-in's supporters also supported the Justice Party.

3. Issue Factors- "Impeachment" was the overwhelming top issue at 48.6%, with its influence increasing among younger age groups.

- "THAAD deployment controversy" was concentrated among Hong Joon-pyo's supporters and older age groups.

4. Media Effects(1) Types of Media Used for Election Information Acquisition

- General programming (Jongpyeon) broadcasts were the top source for election information.

- Those in their 20s and 30s relied on internet portals, those in their 40s and 50s on general programming, and those in their 60s and 70s on terrestrial broadcasting.

- Progressive and centrist voters primarily used general programming, while conservative voters primarily used terrestrial broadcasting.

(2) Frequency of Contact with Election-Related Media

- The proportion of active consumers of election information increased with age.

- Those in their 70s who accessed election information "daily and frequently" were twice as likely as those in their 20s. (3) TV Debates

- More than half of voters for Sim Sang-jung and Yoo Seung-min changed their preferred candidate due to TV debates.

- 42.3% of Ahn Cheol-soo's voters stated that while they did not change their preferred candidate, their support weakened.

III. Evaluation and Outlook

1. Satisfaction with Voted Candidate

- Satisfaction rates were in the 90s for supporters of Moon, Sim, and Yoo, and in the 70s for supporters of Ahn and Hong.

- Satisfaction among Moon Jae-in's supporters significantly improved compared to 2012.

2. Evaluation of the Election Process and Results- 53.5% considered it a "policy-focused election," while 60.4% felt that "personal attacks between candidates were severe," and 74.7% believed that "regionalism weakened."

3. Outlook for the New President's State Management- 88.4% predicted that the president would "perform well," a 15.9% increase compared to the outlook for President-elect Park Geun-hye in 2012.

- Even among Hong Joon-pyo's supporters, the prediction of performing "well" was twice as high as the prediction of performing "poorly."

4. Political Realignment

(1) Unification of the Democratic Party and the People's Party

- Opposition (57.1%) exceeded support (38.7%), with only the Honam region showing support (60.9%) exceeding opposition (33.9%).

- The proportion of Moon Jae-in's supporters who favored unification was slightly higher.

(2) Unification of the Liberty Korea Party and the Bareun Party

- Opposition (74.3%) far exceeded support (21.6%), with younger generations expressing stronger opposition.

- Only among Hong Joon-pyo's supporters did support (52.3%) outweigh opposition (43.8%) (...continued)