[Public Opinion Brief No. 139] National Image of 17 Powerful Countries as Seen by the World

[Public Opinion Brief No. 139] Jointly by BBC World Service, GlobeScan, and EAI

2014 24-Country Global Poll International Survey ①

1. Global Power Landscape: Global Image of 17 Powerful Countries

2. Trends in International Image Changes of 6 Major Countries: US-China/Germany-Japan/South Korea-North Korea

3. Analysis of Soft Power Foundations of 6 Major Countries

1. Global Power Landscape: Global Image of 17 Powerful Countries

The <2014 Global Poll> project, led by BBC World Service and GlobeScan with the East Asia Institute (EAI) as the research partner for Korea, presents the results of an international image survey of 17 countries selected for their significant influence in the international community. By asking whether respondents view the international role of these countries positively or negatively, the survey investigated the extent to which each country exerts influence within the global order and the degree to which it possesses a positive image and reputation internationally.

This survey serves as empirical data to evaluate the actual effectiveness of public diplomacy efforts aimed at strengthening soft power, a focus for the international community since the mid-2000s. To understand changes in global public opinion over time, the survey compiled results from 21 countries that have participated for the past five years and analyzed the survey results from 24 countries, including those that newly joined in 2014. Figure 1(1) shows the results of the tracking survey of 21 countries that have participated for five years, while Figure 1(2) shows the results including countries that newly joined in 2014 (Argentina, Israel).

[Figure 1] International Image of 17 Powerful Countries in 2014 (%)

Source: BBC · GlobeScan · EAI Global Poll (2014)

1) The Soft Power Competitive Landscape

The comprehensive evaluation results of 17 major countries' international image, as presented in Figure 1, reveal several key characteristics. Comparing the survey results from 21 countries with those from 24 countries shows no change in the ranking order, and the response rates differ by a maximum of 2-3%, within the margin of error. For the purpose of analyzing temporal changes and maintaining consistency in this report, the analysis will be based on the survey results from 21 countries.

Hard Power Superpowers G2, Soft Power Middle Powers - South Africa, South Korea, India Slightly Ahead

The United States, which leads the international order, and China, its emerging rival, exhibit soft power capabilities that fall short of their hard power influence. In the 2014 survey, an average of only 42% of respondent countries viewed the international role of the US and China positively. Negative assessments were also significant, with 39% for the US and 42% for China, nearly matching the positive opinions. This indicates that they are perceived with a similar international reputation to middle powers such as BRICS countries, South Korea, and South Africa. They even lag behind Brazil, which received a 45% positive evaluation, and the difference with South Africa (39%), South Korea (38%), and India (38%) is within the margin of error. Among the BRICS nations, Russia received positive evaluations from an average of only 30% of respondent countries, indicating it is relatively lagging in the soft power competition among BRICS countries.

Soft Power Advanced Nations - Germany 60%, Canada 57%, UK 56%, France 50%

Which countries are leading the soft power competition? Based on positive evaluations of their international roles, Germany (60%), Canada (57%), the UK (56%), and France (50%) are Western developed nations within the G7 that received positive evaluations exceeding the overall average, demonstrating their status as developed countries in terms of international reputation and image. Japan's positive evaluation of its international role was 49%, and its evaluation of the EU was 47%. While not exceeding the majority, positive evaluations outnumbered negative ones. Most Western developed countries are well-regarded, and in Asia, Japan is the only country that has built a strong international image for its role on a global scale, contrasting with the cynical assessments from neighboring countries like South Korea and China.

Conflict-Ridden Nations, Worsening International Image - Positive Evaluations: Israel 24%, North Korea 19%, Pakistan-Iran 16%

Meanwhile, global perceptions of Israel, a party to Middle Eastern conflicts, and North Korea and Pakistan, which are pursuing nuclear weapons development and military power, remained cool. Positive evaluations for Israel were only around 24%, for North Korea 19%, and for Pakistan and Iran, a mere 16%. These countries are in conflict with international norms and are perceived as economically underdeveloped. Although Israel was recognized as an economically advanced country upon joining the OECD in 2010, this appears to have had no effect on improving its international image.

2) Hard Power Shapes National Image: Contrasting Effects of Economic and Military Strength

Economic Power (+), Military Power (-)

As shown in Figure 2, there is a strong positive correlation between a country's economic strength (based on GDP per capita) and the proportion of positive international evaluations it receives. Countries with higher GDP per capita, whether OECD or non-OECD members, tend to have better international images. This suggests that economic power, as a key resource of hard power, can serve as a resource for enhancing a nation's image and soft power.

In contrast, military power, another pillar of hard power, was found to have a negative impact on a nation's image in the international community. When organizing the positive international reputation ratio of this survey against government expenditure on military spending for each country in a scatter plot, it is observed that countries with excessive military expenditure tend to have a lower positive reputation ratio. North Korea, Pakistan, and Israel, which are frequently embroiled in conflicts, advocate for nuclear possession after withdrawing from the NPT regime, or are suspected of possessing nuclear weapons, are receiving a cold evaluation. The G2, along with South Korea and Russia, are positioned in the middle-power group and are countries that allocate 8% to 13% of their government expenditure to military spending. Meanwhile, Japan (2.3%), Germany (3.0%), France (3.9%), and the United Kingdom (5.2%), which have low military expenditure, are receiving favorable evaluations.

[Figure 2] Positive International Reputation (%) vs. Economic Size (GDP per capita, %)

Note: GDP per capita for all countries except North Korea is based on 2012 IMF figures. Military expenditure as a percentage of government expenditure is from the SIPRI Military Balance 2013. For Iran, 2013 figures were unavailable, so 2012 figures were used. North Korea's GDP per capita is from the UN National Accounts Main Aggregates Database for 2012. Military expenditure as a percentage of government expenditure for North Korea is based on official figures released in 2010, published in the Sejong Institute's <Changes in North and South Korea Based on Statistical Figures>. Sources: BBC · GlobeScan · EAI (2014), IMF (2014), UN (2013), SIPRI (2014), Sejong Institute (2011).

2. Trends in International Image Changes of Major Countries

Let us examine the trends in the image changes of the 17 powerful countries by synthesizing the survey data from the past five years. We will focus on countries that are important stakeholders from Korea's perspective, including Germany and Japan, which have been competing for the top position in national image globally; the G2, leaders of the hard power international order; and South and North Korea (Figure 3).

1) Stagnant G2 Competition - Simultaneous Decline Since 2012

While the competition between the US and China intensifies not only in hard power but also in soft power, the international community's view of them remains lukewarm. During the initial term of President Obama's presidency, the US appeared to have a slight edge over China. However, after reaching over 50% in 2010 (46%) and 2011 (49%), the positive evaluation rate has since declined to around 42% in the 2014 survey. This decline appears to be linked to the economic recovery being hampered after the 2008 global financial crisis and the spread of critical public opinion regarding US leadership due to renewed instability in the Middle East.

In contrast, China's positive evaluations remained around 41% in 2010 and 44% in 2011. However, with the decline in the US's reputation in 2012, China's positive image surged to 50%, seemingly establishing its image as an international leader. Yet, since the emergence of the Xi Jinping administration, it has rapidly declined again, settling at around 42% (41% based on 24 countries).

2) Leading the International Reputation Race - Germany's Dominance, Japan/EU Fading

Figure 3 highlights Germany's dominance and the weakening of Japan and the EU among the leading countries. In this survey, Germany has consistently received the highest support, ranging from 56% to 62%, except for a second-place finish behind Japan in 2011, solidifying its positive image and leading the international image competition. In contrast, Japan, which vied for first and second place with Germany in this survey until its international reputation began to decline after the advent of the Abe administration, is showing a noticeable deterioration in its international reputation recently.

In the 2010 survey, Japan received a 53% positive evaluation, ranking second, and in 2012, it rose to 58%, surpassing Germany to rank first among the 17 surveyed countries. However, it has continuously declined since then, falling to 49% in the 2014 survey and dropping in rank. This marks the first time since the international reputation survey began in 2006 that positive evaluations for Japan have not exceeded the majority.

In the early surveys around 2005, the EU and France vied for the top position in international national image evaluations among European countries. However, since Germany's rise, the international images of the EU and France have relatively weakened or stagnated. Canada and the UK appear to be filling that void (see Table 1).

3) South Korea's National Image Shows Improvement Trend, Rising from 32% in 2010 to 38% in 2014; North Korea's Negative National Image

Looking at the changes over the past five years, South Korea's international reputation has shown a gradual but steady improvement. In the 2010 survey, positive evaluations were 32%, ranking 12th among the 17 surveyed countries, slightly behind South Africa and India, and at a similar level to Russia. However, it rose to 36% in the 2011 survey and 37% in the 2012 survey. Although it faltered slightly to 36% in the 2013 survey, it improved to 38% in the current year's survey.

As a result, while the ranking did not significantly improve, South Korea has reached a level comparable to South Africa and India, and is surpassing Russia, which remains in the early 30% range. Further surveys and analysis are needed for a more precise judgment, but it can be inferred that South Korea's active public diplomacy efforts, such as joining the G20, expanding Official Development Assistance (ODA) to developing countries, and strengthening middle-power diplomacy in the international community, are reflected in these results. At the very least, this outcome lends support to the argument for further strengthening diplomatic efforts (see Table 1).

In contrast, North Korea, under the Kim Jong-un regime following the end of the Kim Jong-il era, continues to adhere to the dual track of nuclear development and economic construction. It has persistently posed military threats to the Korean Peninsula and East Asia, as evidenced by the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island and the Cheonan incident in 2011, and the third nuclear test in 2013. Consequently, the international community's view of North Korea is inevitably cold. From 2010 to 2014, positive evaluations of North Korea's international role have consistently remained below 20%, indicating a solidification of its negative national image.

[Figure 3] Trends in International Reputation of 6 Major Countries' National Images (%)

Source: BBC · GlobeScan · EAI Global Poll (2010-2014)

[Table 1] Positive Evaluation Rates (%) and Rank Changes for 17 Surveyed Countries

Source: BBC · GlobeScan · EAI Global Poll (2010-2014)

3. Analysis of Major Countries' Soft Power Foundations: Germany-Japan/US-China/South Korea-North Korea

Predicting the power competition landscape and analyzing South Korea's international reputation and national image foundation are crucial. This chapter selects six countries from the 17 surveyed nations: (1) the global hard power G2 - the US and China; (2) the soft power G2 - Germany and Japan; and (3) South Korea and North Korea. It then comparatively analyzes the characteristics of the soft power support bases of these countries. By analyzing the results of grouping positive evaluations of the US and China by region and the individual country evaluations for each nation, we will identify the strengths and weaknesses of the soft power of these six countries.

1) US-China Competition: US Strong in Western Europe, China Dominant in South America and Africa

Figure 4 compares the positive evaluation results of the US and China across 22 of the 24 total respondent countries, grouped by region. Regionally, the US receives distinctly more favorable evaluations than China from the people of its traditional allies in North America (Canada) and Western Europe. Conversely, China receives more favorable evaluations in countries in Latin America and Africa.

Examining Figure 5, which provides a detailed breakdown by individual country, Ghana (69%), Israel (60%), and Nigeria (59%) stand out as countries that expressed strong favorability towards the US's role, excluding the US itself. However, the US received relatively higher evaluations than China in Western Europe. In France, Spain, and Germany, positive evaluations for the US were 10 to 25 percentage points higher than for China. In Germany, while favorability towards the US was relatively high compared to China, the fact that negative perceptions of the US reached 57% is noteworthy. Traditional allies like the UK (52%) and neighboring North American country Canada (43%) also showed strong preference for the US over China, but with negative perceptions of the US hovering around or exceeding the majority, warning lights are flashing for alliance management.

Meanwhile, China receives higher support than the US in Nigeria (85%), Ghana (67%), and Kenya (65%). Its strength lies in receiving nearly equivalent evaluations in Latin America, often considered the US's backyard. Peru (54%), Brazil (52%), and Argentina (45%) provided positive evaluations. Conversely, China is not faring as well in Asia, which could be considered its sphere of influence. While receiving relatively high support in Pakistan (75%), Indonesia (52%), and Australia (47%), it shows a disappointing performance in gaining affection from neighboring countries, with India (33%), South Korea (32%), and Japan (3%). This contrasts with the positive evaluations for the US in South Korea (58%), India (42%), and Japan (37%). South Korea's positive evaluation of China was only 36%.

Mutual perceptions between the two countries reveal that only 25% of US citizens responded positively about China, while 66% responded negatively. Similarly, among Chinese citizens, only 18% held positive views of the US, with 59% expressing negative opinions, indicating mutual negative perceptions between the two nations. This appears to reflect the ongoing rivalry between the US and China over the international order in public consciousness.

[Figure 4] Comparison of US-China Positive Evaluation Ratios by Region (%)

Source: BBC · GlobeScan · EAI Global Poll (2014)

[Figure 5] Comparison of Individual Country Evaluations of the US and China in 2014 (%)

Source: BBC · GlobeScan · EAI Global Poll (2014)

2) Germany's Dominance, Japan's Lagging Performance

Germany's Overwhelming Superiority in Europe, North America, and Asia (its Relative Sphere of Influence)

Japan Falls Behind China Even in Asia and Africa

Germany has established itself as an absolute leader in soft power. Japan, which challenged this position a few years ago, is now falling behind in the competition. Germany received the most favorable evaluations in all regions except for Latin America and the Middle East, where it showed a slight disadvantage compared to Japan.

Germany received overwhelmingly positive evaluations in the UK (86%) and France (83%). In North America, it was highly rated in Canada (77%) and the US (73%), recognized as a soft power leader by developed nations. Japan received generally positive evaluations, such as 65% in the UK, 58% in France, 66% in the US, and 58% in Canada, but the gap with Germany remained significant. In Asia, while Germany's positive evaluations did not exceed the majority in China (42%), Pakistan (35%), and India (32%), it received overwhelming support in Australia (86%) and South Korea (86%).

Japan received better evaluations than Germany in Indonesia (70%) and Pakistan (46%), but only 59% in Australia and 27% in India. Notably, its low positive evaluation of 15% in South Korea and 5% in China is a significant hindrance. However, its comparable evaluations to Germany in Ghana (72% vs. 59%), Nigeria (63% vs. 72%), and Kenya (58% vs. 45%) are positive aspects.

However, the fact that Japan is receiving lower evaluations than China, which is competing for regional leadership and resource diplomacy in areas like Asia and Africa, suggests that Japan needs to review its overall diplomatic strategy. As previously discussed, economic strength contributes to improving a nation's image, while power diplomacy, such as military buildup, can damage it. The recent decline in Japan's international reputation following the advent of the Abe administration, which pursues historical revisionism and military strengthening, is highly suggestive.

[Figure 6] Comparison of Germany-Japan Positive Evaluation Ratios by Region (%)

Source: BBC · GlobeScan · EAI Global Poll (2014)

[Figure 7] Comparison of Individual Country Evaluations for Germany and Japan in 2014 (%)

Source: BBC · GlobeScan · EAI Global Poll (2014)

3) International Image of North and South Korea

South Korea: Majority Positive Only in Ghana-Australia-USA; Lack of Pro-Korea Countries; Negative Opinion in Latin America; Worsening Opinion in China-Japan a Burden

South Korea is continuously improving its positive image by emphasizing middle power diplomacy and public diplomacy to strengthen its role on the international stage. Regionally, with no region other than North America exceeding a majority positive evaluation, it appears to have a long way to go to catch up with soft power superpowers. Meanwhile, North Korea is strengthening its nuclear-economic parallel path for regime maintenance amidst instability shown during the process of regime change, and its negative national image is solidifying as it fails to escape economic backwardness. It received relatively high support with an average positive evaluation of 44% in Africa, but in Asia and Latin America, the positive evaluation was in the 10% range, and in North America and developed European countries, the positive response did not even exceed 10%.

South Korea's positive evaluation exceeded a majority only in Ghana (63%), Australia (62%), and the United States (55%). Relatively favorable evaluations were found in Canada and Indonesia (48%), the United Kingdom (45%), France (42%), and China (40%). In Pakistan and India, although positive evaluations were numerous, they were only around 30%. In Latin American countries, negative evaluations were higher than positive ones. In Japan, where favorable public opinion was high, the evaluation of South Korea worsened, falling to 13% in the 2014 survey. This reflects the lingering animosity in bilateral relations, intensified by the advent of the Abe administration and former President Lee Myung-bak's visit to Dokdo.

[Figure 8] Comparison of Positive Evaluation Rates for South Korea and North Korea by Region in 2014 (%)

Source: BBC · GlobeScan · EAI Global Poll (2014)

[Figure 9] Comparison of Individual Country Evaluations for South and North Korea (%)

Source: BBC · GlobeScan · EAI Global Poll (2014)