[Public Opinion Brief No. 129] Trends and Causes of Changes in Presidential Candidates' Support

[Public Opinion Brief No. 129] Joint Presidential Panel Survey 4 by EAI, SBS, JoongAng Ilbo, and Hankook Research

1. Increasing Election Interest and Voting Intention

2. Changes in Voters' Support Choices

3. Fluctuation in Candidates' Support Bases

4. Candidates' Favorability and Unfavorability Ratings

5. Priority National Tasks for the Next Government and Corresponding Candidates

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1. Increasing Election Interest and Voting Intention

- Election interest surged to 96.9%

■ With one week remaining until the election, as presidential candidate TV debates continue and each candidate's campaign intensifies, the interest of voter panelists in the election is also increasing.

■ Looking solely at the proportion of respondents who answered they were interested (very interested + generally interested), the rate increased from 86.8% in the first survey in August to 92.7% in the third survey in November, and to 96.9% in this fourth survey. This result confirms the high level of interest voter panelists have in this presidential election.

[Figure 1] Interest in the 18th Presidential Election (%)

■ Interest by candidate support also increased compared to the third survey in November. Among Park Geun-hye's supporters, the proportion who answered they were interested (very interested + generally interested) increased from 94.6% to 97.5%. Among Moon Jae-in's supporters, the response rate increased from 95.8% to 99.1%. Interest among the undecided segment is also on an upward trend. Among the undecided, the proportion who answered they were interested in this presidential election increased by 6.1 percentage points (p) from 73.2% to 79.3%.

[Figure 2] Change in Interest by Presidential Candidate Support in the 18th Presidential Election

- Very interested: Increased from 45.0% in August to 59.6% in December

- Park Geun-hye supporters: very interested 60.6%

- Moon Jae-in supporters: very interested 64.3%

- Undecided voters: very interested 27.1%

■ The increase in voter panel interest can be confirmed by examining the proportion of respondents who answered they were very interested in the current presidential election. The overall response rate increased from 45.0% in the first survey in August to 54.0% in the third survey in November, and further increased to 59.6% in this fourth survey.

■ The response rate for "very interested" by candidate support also increased. Among Park Geun-hye supporters, the proportion who answered they were very interested in the current presidential election increased by 8.4 percentage points (p) from 52.2% in the first survey to 60.6% in this fourth survey.

■ The response rate for Moon Jae-in supporters increased relatively more, from 48.2% in the first survey to 60.6% in the fourth survey, an increase of 12.4 percentage points (p).

[Figure 3] Response Rate (%) for "Very Interested"

- Will definitely vote: October 83.4%, December 87.7%

- Park Geun-hye supporters: will definitely vote 88.7%

- Moon Jae-in supporters: will definitely vote 91.3%

- Undecided voters: will definitely vote 52.4%

■ Voting intention is also increasing. In the second survey in October, the proportion who answered they would definitely vote in the current presidential election was 83.4%, which slightly decreased to 81.2% in the third survey in November, but rebounded to 87.7% in this fourth survey.

■ By candidate support, among Park Geun-hye supporters, the response rate for "will definitely vote" increased from 87.3% in the third survey in November to 88.7% in this fourth survey.

■ The response rate among Moon Jae-in supporters increased more significantly than that of Park Geun-hye supporters. In the third survey, the response rate for "will definitely vote" was 85.1%, while in this fourth survey, it was 91.3%. This indicates that the consolidation of support for Moon Jae-in is stronger compared to that for Park Geun-hye.

[Figure 4] Changes in the Proportion of Strong Voting Intenders (%)

[Figure 5] Changes in the Proportion of Strong Voting Intenders by Candidate Support (%)

2. Changes in Voter Support Choices

- Moon Jae-in support rate: August 13.9%, December 46.0%

- Park Geun-hye support rate: August 40.8%, December 45.8%

■ In this survey, the support for Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in was in a close race within the margin of error. Moon Jae-in's support rate was 46.0%, and Park Geun-hye's support rate was 45.8%.

■ Examining the changes in support rates between the two candidates, Moon Jae-in's support rate shows a steeper upward trend compared to Park Geun-hye's. In the multi-candidate race, Moon's support rate was only 13.9% in the first survey in August. It rose to 23.9% in the second survey in October, but still trailed significantly behind Park Geun-hye. In the third survey in November, the gap narrowed to 1.9 percentage points (p) with a support rate of 43.2%, marking the beginning of a close race, and the support rate rose to 46.0% in this fourth survey.

■ Park Geun-hye's support rate remained stable without significant fluctuations. The support rate in the first survey was 40.8%, and in the second survey, it was 38.2%. In the third survey in November, following Ahn Cheol-soo's withdrawal, Park Geun-hye's support rate rose to 45.0%, but in this fourth survey, the upward trend stagnated at 45.8%. Consequently, while Park Geun-hye's support base is very stable and solid, it also shows limitations in expanding its support base.

[Figure 6] Changes in Voter Support Choices

3. Fluctuations in Candidate Support Bases

1) Changes by Generation

- Park Geun-hye: increased by 2.3% p among those in their 50s

- Moon Jae-in: increased by 5.8% p among those in their 30s and 4.1% p among those in their 40s

■ By generation, comparing the results of the fourth survey with the third, support for Park Geun-hye increased by 2.3 percentage points (p) among those in their 50s. Conversely, support for Park Geun-hye decreased by 0.5 percentage points (p) among those in their 40s.

■ Support for Moon Jae-in increased among those in their 30s and 40s. In their 30s, support increased by 5.8 percentage points (p) compared to the third survey, and in their 40s, it increased by 4.1 percentage points (p). Support for Moon Jae-in also increased among those aged 60 and over, rising from 20.4% in the third survey to 23.0% in this fourth survey, an increase of 2.6 percentage points (p).

[Table 1] Changes in Support Rates by Generation (%)

2) Changes by Region of Residence

- Park Geun-hye: upward trend in Incheon/Gyeonggi and Daegu/Gyeongbuk

- Moon Jae-in: support rate in the 40% range in Daejeon/Chungcheong and Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam

■ By region of residence, Park Geun-hye maintained strong support in Daegu/Gyeongbuk, considered her political stronghold, and showed an upward trend in Incheon and Gyeonggi. However, support weakened in Daejeon/Chungcheong and Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam regions.

■ Moon Jae-in's support exceeded 40% in Daejeon/Chungcheong and Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam, and showed relatively steady growth in other regions as well.

[Table 2] Changes in Support Rates by Region of Residence (%)

3) Changes by Party Affiliation

- Strengthening support by party affiliation

■ By party affiliation, Park Geun-hye's support weakened among non-Saenuri Party supporters, particularly failing to expand support among unaffiliated voters. In contrast, Moon Jae-in gained support from unaffiliated voters, showing a 5.8% increase, in addition to the consolidation of support from Democratic Party supporters, but experienced a 5.9% decrease in support from Unified Progressive Party supporters.

[Table 3] Changes in Support Rates by Party Affiliation (%)

■ While support for the respective candidates strengthened within their party affiliations, both parties saw an increase in support. However, it is important to consider that Saenuri Party's support rate is approximately 10 percentage points (p) higher than that of the Democratic Party. This suggests that Saenuri Party's support may exert greater influence in the presidential election compared to the Democratic Party's support. Meanwhile, the proportion of unaffiliated voters has been gradually decreasing since the second survey in October. Although candidate consolidation is increasing, the possibility of shifts in the election landscape is also diminishing.

[Figure 7] Changes in Support Rates by Party Affiliation (%)

4) Changes by Ideological Orientation

- Park Geun-hye: solid support among conservative and moderate voters

- Moon Jae-in: expanded support among progressive and moderate voters

■ Examining the changes in support rates by ideological tendency, candidate Park Geun-hye maintained a stagnant state among moderates and conservatives, while her support among progressives weakened. Candidate Moon Jae-in, amidst strengthening support from progressives, not only showed a support rate increase of over 50% among moderates but also saw his support among conservatives rise by 2.8 percentage points (p) to 24.3% compared to the third survey in November.

[Table 4] Changes in Support Rates by Ideological Tendency (%)

4. Favorability and Veto Perception of Presidential Candidates

- Favorability scores: Candidate Moon Jae-in 6.1 points, Candidate Park Geun-hye 5.5 points

■ Regarding the favorability of presidential candidates, candidate Moon Jae-in received the highest evaluation with 6.1 points in this survey, while candidate Park Geun-hye scored 5.5 points, indicating that she did not significantly succeed in changing her image.

[Figure 8] Changes in Candidate Favorability

- Candidates who should not be elected: Park Geun-hye 28.8%, Moon Jae-in 5.8%

- Undecided voters: Park Geun-hye 15.4%, Moon Jae-in 3.8%

- Among Park Geun-hye supporters, the proportion supporting Moon Jae-in: 12.2%

- Among Moon Jae-in supporters, the proportion supporting Park Geun-hye: 59.3%

■ In the survey results for candidates who should not be elected, the proportion of respondents who selected candidate Park Geun-hye was 28.8%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points (p) compared to the November survey. Conversely, the proportion selecting candidate Moon Jae-in was 5.8%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points (p) from the previous survey.

■ Among Park Geun-hye's supporters, the proportion stating that candidate Moon Jae-in should not be elected was 12.2%. In contrast, among Moon Jae-in's supporters, the proportion stating that candidate Park Geun-hye should not be elected was high at 59.3%. Furthermore, among undecided voters, the proportion of those vetoing candidate Park Geun-hye, i.e., responding that she should not be elected, was 15.4%, approximately four times higher than the proportion who answered for candidate Moon Jae-in (3.8%).

[Figure 9] Changes in Response Rates for Candidates Who Should Not Be Elected (%)

[Figure 10] Changes in Response Rates for Candidates Who Should Not Be Elected by Supporter Group (%)

5. Priority National Tasks and Candidates for Resolution in the Next Government

- Economic polarization issue increased from 27.9% to 30.2%

■ Regarding the national tasks that the next government should prioritize, the results were similar to the October survey, but the proportion of respondents concerned about economic polarization increased, while the proportion concerned about economic growth relatively decreased.

■ This shift in perception is understood as one of the reasons for the neck-and-neck race between candidate Moon Jae-in, who shows strength in addressing economic polarization, and candidate Park Geun-hye, who is evaluated as having strength in economic growth.

[Figure 11] Perception of Priority National Tasks for the Next Government (%)

[Figure 12] Candidates for Resolving Priority National Tasks for the Next Government (%)