[Public Opinion Briefing No. 124] A Balance of Coexisting Weaknesses Among the Three Candidates: Presidential Public Opinion One Month Before Candidate Registration

[Public Opinion Briefing No. 124] Jointly Planned by EAI and Korea Research Regular Public Opinion Barometer Survey

1. Presidential Approval Ratings After Ahn Cheol-soo's Candidacy and the Democratic Party's Primary

2. Public Opinion on Candidate Unification: Demand for Unification Rising, but Gap Widens Between Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo Supporters

3. Presidential Election Outlook by Issue: Economic Democratization > NLL Controversy > Jeong Su Janghakhoe/Past Events Issue

4. October Political Indicators: Will the Democratic United Party Break the 100-Day Jinx?

1. Presidential Approval Ratings After Ahn Cheol-soo's Candidacy and the Democratic Party's Primary

- Park's Approval Rating Hits Bottom, Ahn Maintains Precarious Lead, Moon's 1:1 Approval Rating Stagnant

1) In a three-way race, Park Geun-hye 36.2% vs. Moon Jae-in 23.1% vs. Ahn Cheol-soo 29.4%

● In the multi-candidate race after the three candidates officially declared their candidacy, Park Geun-hye leads, while in a head-to-head race, Ahn Cheol-soo leads. The pattern of Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in being in a close contest within the margin of error has continued in the October survey. In terms of trends, the decline that began in August due to the apology for past events, allegations of corruption among associates, and excessive negative campaigning against Ahn Cheol-soo appears to have hit bottom. In the September survey, Park's support fell to 34.0%, nearly catching up to independent candidate Ahn Cheol-soo's 30.6% support. However, in the October survey, Park garnered 36.2% and Ahn Cheol-soo 29.4%, widening the gap slightly within the margin of error. Nevertheless, this is far from the dominant position held since the general election. Moon Jae-in's support rose to 23.1%, continuing the upward trend from September.

[Figure 1] Changes in Approval Ratings in a Hypothetical Three-Way Race (%)

2) Hypothetical 1:1 Race: Park Geun-hye Passes Bottom, Ahn Cheol-soo Holds Precarious Lead, Moon Jae-in's Upward Trend Slows

● In a hypothetical race between Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo, Park received 39.9% and Ahn received over half at 50.6% in the September survey. In the October survey, Park received 42.0% and Ahn received 51.8%, with the gap narrowing slightly. Meanwhile, in a hypothetical race between Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in, Park led for the first time within the margin of error in the September survey with 42.0% compared to Moon's 47.7%. In the current survey, Park received 43.8% and Moon received 47.5%, also showing a trend of narrowing the gap. Overall, the approval rating gap among the three candidates is not leaning entirely in one direction, indicating fierce competition within striking distance.

[Figure 2] Hypothetical Race Approval Ratings (%)

3) A Balance of Deficiencies: A State of Equilibrium Reliant on Each Other's Weaknesses

Park Geun-hye: Trailing in 1:1 approval ratings, but the bottoming out of approval ratings and voter turnout among supporters offer some comfort.

● For candidate Park Geun-hye, while her support has been significantly challenged in a three-way race, her weakness lies particularly in her inability to gain an advantage against Ahn Cheol-soo in a head-to-head race and her lack of leadership in national affairs. However, the explanation provided for the Jeong Su Janghakhoe issue, which was met with a lukewarm response, did not lead to a sharp decline in approval ratings as seen in August-September, and the slight signs of rebound, along with strengthened voter turnout among her supporters, are sources of comfort. When asked if their intention to vote for their preferred candidate had changed compared to a month prior in a multi-candidate scenario, 44.7% of Park Geun-hye's supporters responded that their intention to vote had strengthened. This was higher than the 40.9% of Moon Jae-in's supporters and 34.1% of Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters who reported a strengthened intention to vote.

[Figure 3] Change in Intention to Vote for Preferred Candidate Compared to One Month Ago (%)

Ahn Cheol-soo: Strength lies in competitive advantage in 1:1 races; weakness is the unresolved anxiety regarding governing capability.

● Ahn Cheol-soo's greatest advantage is maintaining a high level of competitiveness against Park Geun-hye compared to Moon Jae-in. Despite facing significant criticism from both academia and the political sphere for his unconventional political reform proposals, such as reducing the number of National Assembly members and abolishing central party headquarters, his approval ratings have not declined. Although his approval ratings remain high externally, evaluations of his electability and governing capability have become more negative compared to the September survey, and the relatively low voter turnout intention among his supporters is a weakness.

Moon Jae-in: Democratic Party supporters are consolidating due to growing anxiety about Ahn, but expansion potential is limited.

● Since being officially nominated by the Democratic Party in September, Moon Jae-in has been perceived as relatively stable compared to Ahn Cheol-soo, leading to consolidation among Democratic Party supporters and enabling him to compete on par with Park Geun-hye in hypothetical 1:1 races. He benefits from being able to compete equally with Ahn Cheol-soo in terms of preferred unified candidate and perceived governing capability. However, his weakness lies in his limited expansion potential, as he has not secured a lead over Park Geun-hye, unlike Ahn Cheol-soo. Furthermore, in the event of unification, Moon Jae-in absorbs only 79.5% of voters who supported Ahn Cheol-soo in a 1:1 race, with 13.4% defecting to Park Geun-hye. In contrast, Ahn Cheol-soo absorbs 86.7% of voters who supported Moon Jae-in in a 1:1 race. This indicates a relative weakness in absorbing support from opposing camps during unification.

2. Public Opinion on Candidate Unification

Pressure for Unification Increases, While the Gap Widens Between Democratic Party Supporters and Unaffiliated Voters on the Issue

1) Candidate Unification: Pressure for Unification Rises Among Moon/Ahn Supporters, Weakens Among Undecided Voters

Support for Unification: September 44.8% → October 48.7%

Moon Supporters 76.1%→83.9%↑, Ahn Supporters 54.7%→62.6%↑, Undecided Voters 40.1% → 34.8%↓

● Compared to the September survey, the public opinion favoring unification between the two candidates has slightly increased in the October survey. While the sentiment that "Ahn Cheol-soo should unify with Moon Jae-in" is high at 44.8%, the sentiment that "Moon Jae-in should not unify with Ahn Cheol-soo" is lower at 30.4%. However, the proportion of "don't know" responses remains significant at 24.9%, indicating a considerable number of undecided voters.

● Among the three-way race scenarios, Moon Jae-in's supporters are the most proactive. In the October survey, support for unification among Moon Jae-in's supporters increased to 83.9%, up from 76.1% in September. Among Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters, 54.7% favored unification in September, rising to 62.6% in October. The fact that nearly 40% of Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters responded negatively or passively towards unification suggests that the possibility of defection from Ahn Cheol-soo's support base cannot be entirely ruled out. Among undecided voters in the multi-candidate race, support for unification has decreased to 34.8%, indicating that the scope for expanding support among undecided voters through unification may be limited.

2) Unification with Whom?

Ahn Cheol-soo 34.4%→38.4%, Moon Jae-in 41.8%→ 43.0%

● Regarding the unified candidate, 38.4% of all respondents supported Ahn Cheol-soo, while 43.0% supported Moon Jae-in, with Moon leading. This trend is similar to the September survey, where 34.4% supported Ahn Cheol-soo and 41.8% supported Moon Jae-in. The proportion of respondents who were undecided or refused to answer decreased from 23.8% to 18.6%, resulting in a slight increase in support for both candidates as the unified choice.

[Figure 4] Ahn Cheol-soo's Support for Unification with Moon Jae-in and Preferred Unified Candidate (%)

Democratic Party Supporters (September) Ahn 41.5% = Moon 44.4% Neck and Neck → (October) Ahn 36.4% < Moon 56.2%

Unaffiliated Voters (September) Ahn 31.8% = Moon 29.9% → (October) Ahn 44.9% > Moon 20.7%

● Despite the increasing support for unification, the divergence in preferred candidates between Democratic Party supporters and unaffiliated voters, who would form the actual support base for unification, is expected to be a significant obstacle in future unification discussions. In the September survey, both Democratic Party supporters and unaffiliated voters showed nearly equal support for Ahn Cheol-soo and Moon Jae-in as the unified candidate. Among Democratic Party supporters, 41.5% chose Ahn Cheol-soo as the unified candidate, while 44.4% chose Moon Jae-in, indicating a near tie. Among unaffiliated voters, 31.8% supported Ahn Cheol-soo, and 29.9% supported Moon Jae-in, also showing a near tie.

● However, in the October survey, among Democratic Party supporters, the support for Ahn Cheol-soo versus Moon Jae-in as the unified candidate shifted to 36.4% versus 56.2%, indicating increased consolidation of support for Moon Jae-in. Conversely, among unaffiliated voters, the support for Ahn Cheol-soo versus Moon Jae-in as the unified candidate was 44.9% for Ahn Cheol-soo and only 20.7% for Moon Jae-in. It is important to note the potential for significant issues arising from differences in preferred candidates during the unification process, as the gap between the preferences of Democratic Party supporters and unaffiliated voters currently prevents a clear tilt towards one candidate.

[Figure 5] Preference for Unified Candidate Among Democratic Party Supporters and Unaffiliated Voters (%)

3) Evaluation of Unified Candidate Competitiveness: Ahn's Electability Advantage Decreases, Moon's Governing Capability Advantage Increases

Electability: Ahn Cheol-soo's electability advantage erodes; Democratic Party supporters favor Moon, while unaffiliated voters show a split favoring Ahn.

(September) Ahn 41.2%, Moon 27.7%, Similar 22.7% → (October) Ahn 32.6% vs. Moon 32.6% vs. Similar 27.0%

● In the September survey, a symmetrical structure emerged where Ahn Cheol-soo had an advantage in competitiveness against Park Geun-hye, while Moon Jae-in led in evaluations of governing capability. In the current survey, Ahn Cheol-soo's comparative advantage in electability has significantly weakened. In the September survey, 41.2% responded that Ahn Cheol-soo had a higher likelihood of winning, compared to 27.7% for Moon Jae-in and 22.7% for similar. Notably, 45.3% of Democratic United Party supporters believed Ahn Cheol-soo was more likely to win, while only 28.5% believed Moon Jae-in was more likely to win. A similar pattern was observed among unaffiliated voters.

● However, in the October survey, the responses regarding who is more likely to win were equal for both candidates, with 32.6% for Ahn Cheol-soo and 32.6% for Moon Jae-in. This change is attributed to the increase in the proportion of Democratic Party supporters who believe Moon Jae-in is more likely to win, with 41.1% favoring Moon compared to 31.5% favoring Ahn. Conversely, among unaffiliated voters, the perception of Ahn Cheol-soo's higher electability decreased by 4.5 percentage points to 37.8% compared to the previous month, while the perception of Moon Jae-in's higher electability decreased significantly by 9.3 percentage points to 13.7%. The proportion of "similar" responses increased.

[Figure 6] Evaluation of Electability (%)

Governing Capability: Driven by high evaluations from Democratic Party supporters for Moon.

(September) Ahn 25.3% vs. Moon 40.9% → (October) Ahn 22.2% vs. Moon 46.1%

● In terms of governing capability, Moon Jae-in's comparative advantage has strengthened compared to the previous month. Responses indicating Ahn Cheol-soo is better were 22.2%, while those indicating Moon Jae-in is better were 46.1%. This confirms that Ahn Cheol-soo's governing capability remains a source of anxiety for voters and has not yet garnered sufficient trust. Notably, positive evaluations of Moon Jae-in among Democratic United Party supporters have significantly increased compared to the previous month. In the September survey, 29.5% of Democratic United Party supporters believed Ahn Cheol-soo had better governing capability, 43.7% believed Moon Jae-in did, and 22.5% thought they were similar. In the October survey, only 23.6% of Democratic Party supporters believed Ahn Cheol-soo was superior, while 52.8% believed Moon Jae-in was superior. Among unaffiliated voters, the September survey showed similar levels (Ahn 24.2%, Moon 28.6%), but in the October survey, Moon Jae-in's advantage increased significantly (Ahn 27.2%, Moon 34.0%).

● Overall, Democratic Party supporters are leading the positive evaluations of Moon Jae-in, while evaluations among unaffiliated voters remain less favorable. Considering both electability and governing capability, Moon Jae-in's current strength appears to stem from Democratic Party supporters who, while previously leaning towards Ahn Cheol-soo due to perceived competitiveness against Park Geun-hye, have now consolidated behind Moon Jae-in. However, unaffiliated voters still hold a less favorable view of Moon Jae-in.

[Figure 7] Evaluation of Governing Capability (%)

3. Presidential Election Outlook by Issue

1) Issues with Significant Impact on Candidate Choice

Economic Democratization 77.8% > NLL Controversy 62.5% > Past Events like Jeong Su Janghakhoe 52.2%

● With just over 50 days remaining until the presidential election, retrospective issues such as Park Geun-hye's Jeong Su Janghakhoe problem and views on past events, as well as the response to the NLL during the Roh Moo-hyun administration's summit, have emerged as political focal points, rather than distinct policy debates. However, this survey again indicates that voters are more significantly influenced by economic issues, such as economic democratization policies, when choosing a candidate.

● The proportion of respondents considering economic democratization policies when deciding their presidential candidate support was 77.8%. Those considering the recently controversial NLL controversy was 62.5%, while those considering past events like the Jeong Su Janghakhoe issue was only 52.2%. This suggests that during the election campaign, the focus of debate is likely to shift from retrospective evaluations of past issues to agendas that are of major concern to the public, such as economic democratization.

[Figure 8] Influence of Major Agendas on Candidate Support: "Consider in Presidential Support" Responses (%)

Preference for Economic Democratization and Welfare Policies: Coexistence of Pro-Progressive Agendas and Pro-Conservative Policies

"Respect for Corporate Autonomy" 52.5%, "Selective Welfare Without Tax Increases" 68.1%

● The agenda of economic democratization is, in essence, a pro-progressive and opposition-party-favorable agenda. From the perspective of issue ownership, this creates a favorable environment for Moon Jae-in or Ahn Cheol-soo. However, the policy preferences within each area are not necessarily aligned with this. When asked whether the government should strengthen regulations on corporations or allow them greater autonomy in relation to economic democratization, 41.1% favored strengthening regulations, while 52.5% favored corporate autonomy.

● Furthermore, in the welfare debate, 68.1% of respondents preferred "selective welfare without tax increases" over "universal welfare through tax increases." While the general trend of increased support for selective welfare is not unusual, it confirms a tendency towards pro-conservative selective welfare solutions when combined with the tax increase debate.

● If Park Geun-hye faces the burden of campaigning centered on the agenda of economic democratization, where she is relatively weak, then for Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo, the challenge will be to devise measures for funding to strengthen the appeal of their pledges for expanded universal welfare.

[Figure 9] Policy Preferences Regarding Economic Democratization and Welfare (%)

2) Political Reform Debate: Growing Consensus on the Importance of Ahn Cheol-soo's Proposals

Ahn Cheol-soo's Proposal (Reducing National Assembly members to 100) 71.9% vs. Moon Jae-in's Proposal (Expanding proportional representation to 100) 49.0%

● We asked about the importance of the core issues in the political reform proposals recently debated, specifically the reduction of the number of National Assembly members by 100, as proposed by candidate Ahn Cheol-soo, and the proposal by candidate Moon Jae-in to reduce the number of district representatives to 200 and increase the number of proportional representatives to 100, for political reform.

● For Ahn Cheol-soo's proposal, 71.9% responded that it is an important task for political reform, indicating high agreement, while only 49.0% responded that Moon Jae-in's proposal is an important task, showing relatively lower public consensus. While the current proposals may not fully represent the public's overall perception and preference for political reform, it can be anticipated that Ahn Cheol-soo's unconventional proposal, at least within the current debate, is likely to have a positive rather than a negative immediate impact on public opinion.

[Figure 10] Attitude towards Political Reform Proposals Regarding the National Assembly System: An Important Task for Political Reform (%)

4. October Political Indicators: Will the Democratic United Party Break the 100-Day Jinx?

Public approval rating 27.6%, Party approval ratings: Saenuri 40.2%, Democratic United Party 39.1%

● The national approval rating in October was 27.6%. The approval rating, which had briefly turned upward following the visit to Dokdo, appears to be returning to its original level. Meanwhile, party approval ratings have shown a similar trend for the Saenuri Party and the Democratic Party for two consecutive months. In the August survey, the Saenuri Party maintained a 11.4 percentage point lead with an approval rating of 46.2% compared to the Democratic United Party's 34.8%. However, in the September survey, the Saenuri Party dropped to 40.2%, a decrease of 6.0 percentage points, while the Democratic United Party rose by 4.3 percentage points to 39.1%, reaching a near-equal level. In the October survey as well, the Saenuri Party stood at 41.8% versus the Democratic United Party at 40.3%, maintaining a balanced state for two consecutive months. Observing the pattern of changes in party approval ratings since the current administration took office, the Saenuri Party has generally maintained an advantage, while the Democratic Party's approval rating has approached or surpassed that of the Saenuri Party four times, typically around the period of their national convention or after winning a by-election. In each of these instances, a pattern of the Democratic Party's approval rating returning to its original level within 100 days due to neglecting self-reform and innovation efforts, known as the '100-day jinx,' has been observed (see EAI Public Opinion Briefing No. 109). Attention is focused on whether the current rise in approval ratings can break this jinx and sustain an upward trend.

[Figure 11] Changes in National Approval Rating (%)

[Figure 12] Changes in Party Approval Rating (%)