[Public Opinion Brief No. 122] The Magnitude and Causes of Changes in Voter Support Behavior

[Public Opinion Brief No. 122] Joint 2012 Presidential Election 2nd Panel Survey by EAI, SBS, JoongAng Ilbo, and Hankook Research

1. Changes in Voter Support

    1) Support Rates in a Multi-Candidate Race: Moon Jae-in on the Rise, Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo Stagnant

    2) Support Rates in a Two-Candidate Race: Moon Jae-in Achieves a Reversal

    3) The Limits of Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo's Ability to Expand Support

    4) Ahn Cheol-soo's Dilemma: Independent Candidacy vs. Unification of Opposition Candidates

2. Reasons for Changes in Support

    1) Key Considerations for Candidate Support

    2) Changes in Favorability Ratings

    3) Party Support and Unaffiliated Voters

1. Changes in Voter Support

1) Support Rates in a Multi-Candidate Race: Moon Jae-in on the Rise, Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo Stagnant

- Candidate Moon Jae-in's support rate: 13.9% → 23.9%

- Candidate Park Geun-hye: 40.8% → 38.2%; Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo: 30.8% → 27.6%

■ EAI, in collaboration with SBS, JoongAng Ilbo, and Hankook Research, conducted its second presidential panel survey from October 11th to 14th, following two panel surveys conducted before and after the April 11th general election and the first presidential panel survey in August. A total of 1,527 voters participated in the survey.

■ The voter panel was asked, "If the presidential election were held tomorrow, who would you vote for among the following candidates?" to gauge support rates for six presidential candidates: Saenuri Party candidate Park Geun-hye, Democratic United Party (DUP) candidate Moon Jae-in, independent candidate Ahn Cheol-soo, and three minor candidates who recently declared their candidacies (Kang Ji-won, Park Chan-jong, Lee Jung-hee).

■ The survey results indicated that the ranking of support rates among the "Big Three" candidates—Park Geun-hye, Ahn Cheol-soo, and Moon Jae-in—remained unchanged. In the multi-candidate race, while the support rates for Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo slightly decreased compared to the first presidential panel survey, only Moon Jae-in's support rate increased. The support rates for the other minor candidates were below 0.4%.

■ The survey revealed that Moon Jae-in's support rate increased by 10 percentage points (p), from 13.9% in the first presidential panel survey to 23.9% in the current survey. Park Geun-hye's support rate slightly decreased from 40.8% in the first presidential panel survey to 38.2% in the second presidential panel survey. Ahn Cheol-soo's support rate also decreased slightly from 30.8% to 27.6%. These results indicate that both Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo are experiencing support stagnation.

[Figure 1] Changes in Support Rates for Major Presidential Candidates in a Multi-Candidate Race (%)

- 18.8% of Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters moved to Moon Jae-in

- 9.7% of Moon Jae-in's supporters moved to Ahn Cheol-soo

■ A comparative analysis of the first and second presidential panel surveys reveals that, in the multi-candidate race, Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in maintained a more stable support base compared to Ahn Cheol-soo.

■ Specifically, 84.1% of Park Geun-hye's supporters from the first survey remained supporters in the second survey. Similarly, 86.0% of Moon Jae-in's supporters maintained their support, confirming the stability of their voter bases. In contrast, only 68.8% of Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters from the first survey remained supporters in the second survey, indicating a weakness in retaining supporters compared to Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in.

■ In terms of supporter migration, cross-movement between Moon Jae-in's and Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters was observed. Among Moon Jae-in's supporters in the first survey, 9.7% moved to Ahn Cheol-soo. Conversely, 18.8% of Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters moved to Moon Jae-in. This indicates a larger degree of cross-movement among supporters of Ahn Cheol-soo compared to Moon Jae-in.

■ Moon Jae-in's strength in expanding his support base is also evident in the lower proportion of his supporters who defected to "no preferred candidate" compared to the other two candidates. Only 2.7% of Moon Jae-in's supporters stated they had no preferred candidate in the second survey. For Park Geun-hye, this figure was 5.8%, and for Ahn Cheol-soo, it was 6.8%. Excluding those who moved to other candidates, this suggests less disillusionment with their preferred candidate.

[Figure 2] Supporter Changes in a Multi-Candidate Race (%)

2) Support Rates in a Two-Candidate Race: Moon Jae-in Achieves a Reversal

- Park vs. Moon: 47.4% vs. 48.8%

- Park vs. Ahn: 44.7% vs. 50.6%

■ Support rates and supporter movements in a two-candidate race were examined. In a head-to-head contest between Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in, Moon Jae-in's support rate was 48.8%, higher than Park Geun-hye's 47.4%. Although this reversal is within the margin of error, it is the first time Moon Jae-in's support rate has surpassed Park Geun-hye's in the four panel surveys conducted since before the general election.

■ In a two-candidate race between Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo, Ahn Cheol-soo's support rate was 50.6%, higher than Park Geun-hye's 44.7%. While both Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo showed stagnant or declining support in the multi-candidate race, the gap between Ahn Cheol-soo's and Park Geun-hye's support rates widened in the two-candidate scenario.

■ Park Geun-hye maintains a strong position in the multi-candidate race, but Moon Jae-in's upward trend is steep. In the two-candidate race, Park Geun-hye shows relative weakness against the other two candidates. This suggests that the issue of Park Geun-hye's support stagnation is intensifying.

[Figure 3] Changes in Support Rates for Major Presidential Candidates in a Two-Candidate Race (%)

- Supporter Retention Rate (Park vs. Moon): 84.4% vs. 93.9%

- Supporter Retention Rate (Park vs. Ahn): 87.1% vs. 88.4%

■ In the two-candidate race between Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in, 687 voter panel members supported Park Geun-hye in the first presidential panel survey. Of these, 84.4% continued to support Park Geun-hye in the second survey. Of the remaining 15.6%, 12.2% moved to Moon Jae-in, and 3.3% moved to "other/none."

■ Of the 547 voter panel members who supported Moon Jae-in in the first presidential panel survey, 93.9% maintained their support in the second survey. Of the remaining 6.1%, 5.2% moved to Park Geun-hye, and 0.9% moved to "other/none."

■ In the two-candidate race between Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo, the proportion of voter panel members who maintained their support for Park Geun-hye was 87.1%. 9.4% moved to Ahn Cheol-soo, and 3.6% moved to "other/none." Of Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters, 88.4% continued to support him, while 8.8% moved to Park Geun-hye, and 2.8% moved to "other/none."

■ This suggests that one reason for Moon Jae-in's rising support is his superior ability to attract supporters compared to both Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo since the first presidential panel survey.

■ Another reason for Moon Jae-in's rising support can be seen in the "other/none" category. In the two-candidate race between Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in, 52 voter panel members responded with "other/none." Of these, 30.8% moved to support Park Geun-hye in the current survey, while 44.2% moved to support Moon Jae-in. This indicates that Moon Jae-in had a higher rate of attracting supporters than Park Geun-hye.

[Figure 4] Supporter Changes in a Two-Candidate Race (%)

3) The Limits of Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo's Ability to Expand Support

- "Candidates Who Should Not Be Elected": Park Geun-hye increased by 6.8 percentage points (p)

- Ahn Cheol-soo: 6.9% points (p); Moon Jae-in: 3.1% points (p) increase

■ The stagnation of support for Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo implies a significant proportion of voter panel members hold negative perceptions of both candidates. In the second presidential panel survey, as in the first, respondents were asked to name candidates they believed should not be elected. Park Geun-hye received the highest response rate at 27.6%. Ahn Cheol-soo also received a relatively high response rate of 18.0%. Moon Jae-in's response rate was 7.4%, significantly lower than the other two candidates.

■ Not only the response rates but also the increase rates are noteworthy. The proportion of respondents who selected Park Geun-hye increased from 20.8% to 27.6%, an increase of 6.8 percentage points (p). The proportion for Ahn Cheol-soo increased from 11.1% to 18.0%, an increase of 6.9 percentage points (p). In contrast, the response rate for Moon Jae-in increased from 4.3% to 7.4%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points (p).

[Figure 5] Candidates Who Should Not Be Elected (%)

- Retention Rate: Park Geun-hye 85.6%, Ahn Cheol-soo 75.5%, Moon Jae-in 48.1%

■ It is possible that these changes in survey results are due to the fact that voter panel support for Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo is higher than for Moon Jae-in. This could mean that the relatively lower interest in Moon Jae-in among voter panel members has resulted in a backlash effect. However, it is important to note that the proportion of respondents who answered "none," meaning they did not believe any candidate should not be elected, decreased from 50.1% to 39.0%, indicating that voter panel support is gradually solidifying. As the election approaches, the possibility of changes in voter panel perceptions may narrow.

■ A comparison of the first and second presidential panel survey results shows that the proportion of respondents who consistently identified Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo as candidates who should not be elected was 85.6% and 75.5%, respectively. This shows a significant gap compared to the 48.1% who selected Moon Jae-in for the same question. This makes it difficult to optimistically forecast the expansion of support for Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo.

[Figure 6] Changes in "Candidates Who Should Not Be Elected" Results from Presidential Surveys 1 and 2 (%)

4) Ahn Cheol-soo's Dilemma: Independent Candidacy vs. Unification of Opposition Candidates

- Support for Unification: 51.3%

- Park Geun-hye Supporters: 22.6%; Moon Jae-in Supporters: 82.1%; Ahn Cheol-soo Supporters: 67.4%

■ Ahn Cheol-soo's decision on whether to run independently is a crucial variable in this presidential election. Voter panel members indicated a preference for the unification of opposition candidates over Ahn Cheol-soo running independently. The proportion of respondents supporting unification was 51.3%, while 33.6% supported an independent candidacy. Compared to the first presidential panel survey, support for unification increased by 7.3 percentage points (p), while support for an independent candidacy decreased by 7.5 percentage points (p).

■ Opinions on Ahn Cheol-soo's independent candidacy vary depending on the respondent's preferred candidate. Among voter panel members who supported Park Geun-hye, the proportion supporting Ahn Cheol-soo's independent candidacy was 51.5% in the first presidential panel survey and 54.5% in the second. Conversely, the proportion supporting the unification of opposition candidates remained virtually unchanged at 23.2% to 22.6%. This suggests a reverse selection by Park Geun-hye supporters who exhibit strong caution towards Ahn Cheol-soo.

■ Comparing Moon Jae-in supporters and Ahn Cheol-soo supporters, a higher proportion of both groups supported the unification of opposition candidates. Among Moon Jae-in supporters, the proportion supporting Ahn Cheol-soo's unification of opposition candidates increased from 71.0% to 82.1%.

■ Among Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters, the proportion supporting the unification of opposition candidates increased from 55.6% to 67.4%. While the increase for both groups of supporters was slightly over 10 percentage points (p), Moon Jae-in supporters appear to be more actively in favor of Ahn Cheol-soo's unification of opposition candidates.

■ However, it is noteworthy that 23.9% of Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters still favor his independent candidacy. A significant portion of Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters are voters who are distrustful and dissatisfied with unaffiliated voters and the established political system. Therefore, if the unification of opposition candidates materializes, it is uncertain how many supporters will maintain their backing for the unified candidate. Similarly, if he runs independently, it is difficult to guarantee Ahn Cheol-soo's victory, as he would have to contend with both Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in, thus reducing his chances of winning. This is Ahn Cheol-soo's dilemma, facing the choices of an independent candidacy versus the unification of opposition candidates.

[Figure 7] Changes in Preference for Ahn Cheol-soo's Independent Candidacy in Presidential Surveys 1 and 2 (%)

2. Reasons for Changes in Support

1) Key Considerations for Candidate Support

- Increased consideration of ability and experience; decreased consideration of morality

■ In the second presidential panel survey, as in the first, the key considerations for presidential candidate support were ranked as ability and experience > morality > ideology and policy. An interesting finding from the survey is that the proportion of respondents citing ability and experience increased by 5.7 percentage points (p), and the proportion citing ideology and policy increased by 3.0 percentage points (p), while the proportion citing morality decreased by 9.2 percentage points (p).

■ These survey results can also be interpreted as reflecting increased fatigue among voter panel members regarding the continuous moral attacks on the "Big Three" candidates.

[Figure 8] Changes in Key Considerations for Presidential Candidate Support (%)

2) Changes in Favorability Ratings

- Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo Candidates Showed Simultaneous Decline

- Candidate Moon Jae-in Continues Upward Trend

■ Examining the changes in favorability ratings for the "Big 3" candidates, Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo showed a simultaneous downward trend, while only Moon Jae-in's favorability rating continued to rise.

■ When asked to rate favorability on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 is "strongly dislike" and 10 is "strongly like," the average favorability score for Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo was 5.9. Park Geun-hye's favorability score was 5.6.

■ However, it is also important to pay attention to the trend of change in addition to the favorability score results. First, although the average favorability scores for Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo were the same, their trends of change were the opposite. In fact, Moon Jae-in's average favorability score increased from 5.6 in the post-general election survey to 5.7 in the first presidential election survey, and further increased to 5.9 in the second presidential election survey. For Ahn Cheol-soo, his average favorability score, which recorded a high of 6.3 in the post-general election survey, has continued to decline since then.

■ In the case of Park Geun-hye, she recorded the same average favorability score of 6.3 as Ahn Cheol-soo in the post-general election survey, but subsequently declined to 5.8 and 5.6. The magnitude of the decline in Park Geun-hye's favorability was also relatively large. The decline for Ahn Cheol-soo, based on the post-general election survey, was -0.4 points in the second presidential election survey, while for Park Geun-hye it was -0.7 points.

[Figure 9] Favorability Rating Changes (%) for Major Presidential Candidates

3) Party Affiliation and Unaffiliated Voters

- Declining Party Support Rates

- Increasing Unaffiliated Voter Rate at 42.7%

■ In addition to changes in the core considerations for presidential candidate support and fluctuations in favorability towards the Big 3 candidates, the behavior of undecided voters is a crucial point to consider. This is because the Saenuri Party's approval ratings are declining, the Democratic United Party's are stable, while the number of undecided voters is rapidly increasing.

■ The Saenuri Party's approval rating fell by 5.4 percentage points (p) from 39.1% in the post-general election survey to 33.7% in the first presidential election survey, and further dropped by 2.9 percentage points (p) to 30.8% in the second presidential election survey. The Democratic United Party's approval rating plummeted by 9.5 percentage points (p) from 31.9% in the post-general election survey to 22.4% in the first presidential election survey, but it stopped its sharp decline in the second presidential election survey, recording an approval rating of 23.5%.

■ The proportion of undecided voters is even more dramatic compared to the changes in approval ratings for the Saenuri Party or the Democratic United Party. In the post-general election survey, the proportion of undecided voters was 16.8%. This surged to 38.9% in the first presidential election survey and continued to increase in the second presidential election survey, reaching 42.7%. More than four out of every ten voters are now unaffiliated with any party.

[Figure 10] Changes in Party Affiliation (%)

- Undecided Voters Driving Moon Jae-in's Approval Rating Increase

- Proportion of Undecided Voters Among Moon Jae-in Supporters: 13.0% → 21.6%

■ Examining the characteristics of these undecided voters, the largest proportion was found among those in their 20s, with 57.3% being undecided. Among those in their 30s, 46.0% were undecided, and among those in their 40s, 41.2% were undecided. Even among those aged 50 and above, 20-30% identified as undecided, indicating that the distribution of undecided voters across age groups is not peculiar to any specific age bracket. These age-specific characteristics were not new in this second presidential election survey; similar results were observed in the first presidential election survey.

■ In terms of residential area, the proportion of undecided voters was relatively high in the Honam region, with 44.3% of voters in this region being undecided. The proportion of undecided voters was also high in Incheon, Gyeonggi, and Seoul, at 41.5% and 39.5%, respectively. Daejeon and Chungcheong recorded 37.9%, and Daegu/Gyeongbuk recorded 37.8%. The Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam region had a relatively lower proportion of undecided voters, but at 35.4%, it was not significantly low. This did not represent a significant change compared to the results of the first presidential election survey. Considering that the increases or decreases in some regions were within 2%, these cannot be considered meaningful differences.

■ When examined by subjective ideological inclination, the undecided voters are primarily composed of centrists. This is because 45.4% of centrists identified as undecided. The proportion of voters who identified as progressive was also high; 42.5% of progressives identified as undecided, confirming that centrists and progressives are the main groups constituting undecided voters in terms of ideological orientation. Of course, the proportion of undecided voters was not low among conservatives either, with 31.0% identifying as undecided. In terms of ideological orientation, there were no significant differences compared to the first presidential election survey results, with changes within 2%.

■ When analyzed in comparison to presidential candidate support, the highest proportion of undecided voters was found among supporters of candidate Ahn Cheol-soo, with 40.0% identifying as undecided. Among supporters of candidate Park Geun-hye, 23.0% were undecided, and among supporters of candidate Moon Jae-in, 21.6% were undecided. Comparing this to the results of the first presidential election survey reveals two interesting points.

■ First, the proportion of undecided voters among Moon Jae-in's supporters surged from 13.0% to 21.6%. Second, the proportion of undecided voters among Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters slightly decreased from 42.6% to 40.0%.

■ This implies that there has been significant movement between Ahn Cheol-soo's and Moon Jae-in's supporters within the undecided voter bloc. Particularly, considering the increase in Moon Jae-in's support from undecided voters, it suggests that a considerable number of undecided voters who previously supported Ahn Cheol-soo have shifted their support to Moon Jae-in. Ultimately, this result indicates that the shift of former Ahn Cheol-soo supporters played a role in Moon Jae-in's increased approval ratings.

[Figure 11] Characteristics of Undecided Voters (%)