Public Opinion Briefing No. 117: Evaluation of the Presidential Election Landscape during the Transition to the Primary Election Phase, as Seen Through Public Opinion

Public Opinion Briefing No. 117: EAI · Korea Research Joint Project: June Regular Public Opinion Barometer Survey

1. Presidential Election Outlook in the Primary Election Phase: Ruling Party Advantage, Decline in Support for Park and Ahn, and Increase in Undecided Voters

2. Factors of Instability for Former Representative Park and CEO Ahn Cheong-soo

3. National Issues and Approval Ratings for State Administration

【Presidential Election Outlook in the Primary Election Phase】 Ruling Party Advantage, Increase in Undecided Voters in Candidate Matchups

● As former representative Sohn Hak-kyu declares his presidential candidacy, and with the imminent declarations of other presidential contenders, the presidential political landscape is rapidly shifting into the primary election phase, with each major party refining its primary procedures. Regarding the primary schedule, the Saenuri Party has decided to proceed with its primaries according to existing rules, rejecting the demand for a "full national primary system" by non-Park presidential contenders, and is currently coordinating the schedule. The opposition parties have set somewhat more relaxed primary schedules, but similarly, the pace of presidential contenders is quickening. This issue examines public opinion related to the presidential election as it enters the primary phase.

● In terms of party structure, the balance of power between the ruling and opposition parties, which was previously even, has been disrupted. The Unified Progressive Party, a key component of the opposition's alliance, has rapidly lost its support base amidst controversies over election fraud and pro-North Korean sentiments, leading to a formation of a party competition structure with an advantage for the Saenuri Party. Conversely, in terms of candidate structure, the upward trend of former representative Park Geun-hye has stalled since the April 11 general election, CEO Ahn Cheong-soo's approval ratings have stagnated, and the number of voters adopting a wait-and-see attitude has increased. Opposition party candidates have not been able to break out of this stagnant situation.

1. Party Support: Shift to a Two-Party System with a Saenuri Party Advantage of Around 10%p After the April 11 General Election

- Saenuri Party: 39.1% immediately after April 11 → 47.5% in May → 45.2% in June

- Democratic Party: 31.9% → 33.0% → 34.2%

- Unified Progressive Party: 9.7% → 4.5% → 2.5%

● The Democratic United Party, which showed comparable support ratings to the Saenuri Party at the beginning of the year, has only managed to maintain its existing support levels, while the Saenuri Party appears to be solidifying the support it gained following the April 11 general election.

● Support ratings, which remained around 30% before the April 11 general election, rose to 39.1% immediately after the election. In the May survey, when the leadership vacuum in the opposition parties was pronounced, it climbed to 47.5%. Although it slightly decreased in the June survey, it recorded 45.2% support, recovering to the party support levels seen in 2007-2008. In contrast, while the Democratic Party has maintained a gradual upward trend since the March survey, it is trailing the Saenuri Party by approximately 10%p overall.

● Notably, the sharp decline in support for the Unified Progressive Party, a key component of the opposition alliance, has led to a rapid transition from a three-party system to a two-party system, rendering the effectiveness of opposition unity questionable. That is, before the April 11 general election, the combined support for the Democratic United Party and the Unified Progressive Party surpassed that of the Saenuri Party. However, due to the UPP's internal issues, its support has fallen to around 2.5%, making it difficult to expect significant benefits from a simple two-party merger.

● The process of investigating the truth behind the fraudulent election and reforming the party, primarily led by the innovation emergency committee, has amplified internal factional conflicts rather than resolving them. The party has not yet moved into a stabilization phase, with even the next party leadership election being postponed. As the Unified Progressive Party struggles to make significant progress in its internal stabilization and reform efforts, the Democratic United Party appears to have distanced itself from the UPP, as evidenced by its agreement on the eligibility review for Assembly members Lee Seok-ki and Kim Jae-yeon during negotiations with the Saenuri Party to open the National Assembly. Given that one pillar of the opposition's support has crumbled and no significant changes are immediately anticipated in the overall support distribution between the ruling and opposition parties, the Saenuri Party's advantageous position in the party structure is expected to persist for a considerable period.

[Figure 1] Changes in Party Support Ratings (%)

*Note: March and April surveys are based on the EAI․SBS․JoongAng Ilbo․Korea Research 2012 Election Panel Survey results.

2. Candidate Competition Structure: Decline for Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheong-soo, Increase in Undecided Voters. In a 1:1 Matchup, Park vs. Ahn is Extremely Close

1) Simple Multiple Choice: Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheong-soo Both Decline, Undecided Voters Surge from 8.7% to 22.1%

Compared to the previous month, Park decreased by 6.6%p (41.7%→35.1%), Ahn decreased by 4.2%p (25.6%→21.4%)

● The simple approval rating survey indicates that the upward trend of former representative Park Geun-hye, which surged after the April 11 general election, has stalled. Her rating was 35.1%, a decrease of 6.6%p from the previous month, compared to 41.7% in the May regular survey. Meanwhile, CEO Ahn Cheong-soo also saw a decrease of 4.2%p, from 25.6% in May to 21.4% in June.

● Notably, this decline in support for the leading candidates has not translated into increased support for trailing candidates such as former high commissioner Moon Jae-in, former representative Sohn Hak-kyu, or Gyeonggi Province Governor Kim Doo-kwan. Instead, these voters have shifted to the undecided category. Former high commissioner Moon Jae-in's support remained largely unchanged, at 11.2% in May and 12.0% in June. Former representative Sohn Hak-kyu's support has shown an upward trend from 1.4% to 4.1% after gaining attention for his campaign slogan "A Life with Evenings," but its impact is not yet significant. Governor Kim Doo-kwan, who is expected to announce his candidacy, also shows a modest increase from 1.4% to 2.8%, which cannot be considered a significant surge. In contrast, the proportion of respondents who stated they have no candidate to vote for or have not yet decided increased significantly from 8.7% in the May survey to 22.1% in the June survey.

[Figure 2] Simple Multiple Choice Presidential Support Ratings (%)

Source: EAI･Korea Research Regular Survey. *March is the 1st, April is the 2nd round of the EAI·SBS·JoongAng Ilbo·Korea Research General Election Panel Survey.

2) 1:1 Matchup: The Gap Between Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheong-soo Narrows

Park vs. Ahn: 46.4% vs. 45.4%, Park vs. Moon: 53.9% vs. 35.0%, Park vs. Sohn: 59.3% vs. 27.9%

● In a hypothetical 1:1 matchup, the race between Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheong-soo has narrowed to a close contest at 46.4% versus 45.4%. However, in a matchup between Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in, the gap was 18.9%p (53.9% vs. 35.0%), and in a hypothetical contest between Park Geun-hye and Sohn Hak-kyu, the gap was substantial at 59.3% versus 27.9%.

● Examining the trend over time, former representative Park, who had taken the lead against CEO Ahn Cheong-soo in 1:1 hypothetical matchups after the April 11 general election and widened the gap significantly in the May survey, saw her support decline in the June survey. Conversely, CEO Ahn Cheong-soo's support slightly increased, narrowing the gap. Although the gap with former high commissioner Moon Jae-in has narrowed by 3.5%p compared to the May survey, Park still maintains a significant lead.

[Figure 3] Trend of 1:1 Hypothetical Matchups

3) Suitability as Saenuri Party and Opposition Unification Candidate: Park Geun-hye Dominates Saenuri Party; Ahn Cheong-soo Leads Opposition, Forming a Two-Person Race

Saenuri Party Presidential Candidate Suitability: Park Geun-hye 54.2%, 76.7% among Saenuri Party supporters

Opposition Unification Candidate Suitability: Ahn Cheong-soo 31.6%, Moon Jae-in 20.4%; Among Democratic United Party supporters: Ahn 40.5%, Moon 31.2%

● In terms of suitability as a Saenuri Party presidential candidate, 54.2% of all respondents chose former representative Park Geun-hye, significantly ahead of other contenders. Among Saenuri Party supporters, the proportion who chose Park Geun-hye was 76.7%, higher than the overall respondent rate. This indicates that Park's dominance is firmly maintained in both party sentiment and overall public opinion. For other candidates currently being discussed or who have announced their candidacy, reducing the current gap, regardless of the primary system, presents a significant challenge (Figure 4).

● In the survey for suitability as an opposition unification candidate, CEO Ahn Cheong-soo garnered 31.6% and former high commissioner Moon Jae-in received 20.4%, forming a two-person race. Former representative Sohn Hak-kyu followed with 8.2%, Governor Kim Doo-kwan with 4.6%, and former minister Chung Dong-young with 3.3%. Among Democratic United Party supporters, Ahn Cheong-soo was chosen by 40.5% and Moon Jae-in by 31.2%, also forming a two-person race, with a wider gap for other candidates (Figure 5).

● Examining the trend over time in [Figure 6], former representative Park Geun-hye has consistently received over 50% support in suitability evaluations for the Saenuri Party presidential candidacy, maintaining a stable advantage in terms of public opinion. In contrast, the opposition camp has seen significant fluctuations around the emergence of CEO Ahn Cheong-soo. Before the emergence of the "Ahn Cheong-soo phenomenon" in the latter half of 2011, former representative Sohn Hak-kyu, who won the Bundang by-election on April 27, 2011, maintained the lead with 29.3% support in the June 2011 survey. However, his support showed a continuous decline after CEO Ahn Cheong-soo's emergence. Meanwhile, former high commissioner Moon Jae-in, who received only 5.8% in the June 2011 survey a year ago, rose to 9.3% in the December survey and 20.4% in the June 2012 survey after announcing his presidential candidacy, narrowing the gap with CEO Ahn Cheong-soo to 10%p.

● While CEO Ahn Cheong-soo showed a significant lead in the December 2011 survey, when the "Ahn phenomenon" was at its peak, even surpassing the combined support of other Democratic Party candidates, the current situation indicates that it would be difficult to guarantee victory if the Democratic United Party presidential contenders unite. The challenge from other Democratic Party candidates, such as Moon Jae-in, is intensifying in the evaluation of suitability for the opposition unification candidate.

[Figure 4] Saenuri Party Presidential Candidate Suitability Survey: Difference Between Overall Respondents and Saenuri Party Supporters (%)

[Figure 5] Opposition Unification Candidate Suitability Survey: Difference Between Overall Respondents and Democratic United Party Supporters (%)

[Figure 6] Trend of Suitability Ratings for Top 3 Potential Candidates of Ruling and Opposition Parties (%)

(1) Saenuri Party Presidential Candidate Suitability Evaluation                                  (2) Opposition Unification Candidate Suitability Evaluation

【Factors of Instability for Former Representative Park and CEO Ahn Cheong-soo】

1. Factors of Instability for Former Representative Park: The Ahn Cheong-soo Variable and the Exodus of Conservative Supporters

- Weakness in the 20s-40s demographic and among unaffiliated voters in a contest against CEO Ahn

- Weakening of support from the 50s-60s demographic, ideologically conservative voters, the Busan-Gyeongnam region, and Saenuri Party supporters compared to the previous month

- The primary rule controversy does not appear to be a direct cause. "Primary rules maintained" led to "better" responses of 29.2%, "worse" responses of 12.3%

● The factors of instability for former representative Park are not her competitiveness against Democratic United Party candidates like former high commissioner Moon Jae-in or former representative Sohn Hak-kyu, where she shows an advantage. Rather, it is her lack of a clear advantage against a hypothetical competitor like CEO Ahn Cheong-soo that is the primary reason why the "inevitability" narrative is not decisively taking hold.

● In a contest against CEO Ahn Cheong-soo, she shows a significant deficit among the 20s-40s demographic and unaffiliated voters. By age group, she trails CEO Ahn in the 20s (31.0% vs. 64.2%), 30s (38.7% vs. 55.4%), and 40s (41.8% vs. 50.4%). Among unaffiliated voters, she trails by a margin of approximately two to one (24.1% vs. 49.7%). In a 1:1 contest against former high commissioner Moon Jae-in, she holds an advantage in the 20s (50.6% vs. 40.9%), competes evenly in the 30s (44.2% vs. 46.9%), and leads among ideologically moderate voters (53.3% vs. 33.3%) and unaffiliated voters (36.6% vs. 27.1%). However, her weaknesses are significantly exposed in a contest against CEO Ahn.

[Figure 7] Changes in Simple Choice Presidential Support Ratings: Changes in Park Geun-hye's and Ahn Cheong-soo's Support by Demographic Group

● Examining the factors contributing to the decline in simple approval ratings in this survey, the departure of conservative supporters, who had rallied during the April 11 general election, is also acting as another factor of instability for former representative Park. Compared to the May survey, Park's support ratings showed a declining trend in the 20s by 3.0%p and in the 30s by 6.5%p. Conversely, they decreased by 7.5%p in the 40s and 8.3%p in the 60s and above. Regionally, support declined in Gyeonggi (11.2%p), Honam (4.2%p), and Busan-Gyeongnam (8.6%p). The scale of decline in the Busan-Gyeongnam region was comparable to that in the Seoul metropolitan area. Ideologically, support changed by 2.6%p among progressives, 4.6%p among moderates, and 6.0%p among conservatives. By party support, support decreased by 8.7%p among Saenuri Party supporters and 9.4%p among unaffiliated voters, while it only decreased by 2.4%p among Democratic Party supporters, who are in the opposing camp.

● Consequently, a decline in former representative Park's support ratings is being observed not only among centrist voters but also among conservative voters. Competition with non-Park contenders within the party is intensifying during the primary process, and this appears to be a result of backlash from conservative voters regarding her departure from traditional conservative stances on policy issues such as economic democratization. While further research is needed to pinpoint the exact causes of the conservative base's fragmentation, this survey highlights the need for strategies to expand support among centrist voters (scalability) as well as address the fragmentation within the conservative base.

● However, the current controversy surrounding the primary rules does not appear to be a direct cause of the recent decline in support and the exodus of conservative voters. When asked about the impact of adhering to the existing primary rules on perceptions of former representative Park, 29.2% responded that it was positive due to upholding principles and trust, 12.3% responded that it was negative due to not considering the circumstances of competitors, and the largest group, 52.6%, responded that there was no significant change. Among conservative voters, 33.8% responded positively, 11.2% negatively, and 50.4% indicated no change. Therefore, the primary rule controversy does not seem to be a factor in the current decline in support or the departure of conservative voters.

[Figure 8] Controversy Over Primary Rules and Evaluation of Former Representative Park's Image                            [Figure 9] Stance on Current Provincial Governors Running for President

Current Provincial Governors: 41.4% oppose running, 10.8% support running while maintaining current position, 31.9% support running after resignation

● For reference, regarding current provincial governors running for president, the largest proportion of respondents, 41.4%, opposed running while in office. 10.8% responded that it was acceptable to run while maintaining their current position, and 31.9% responded that it was acceptable to run after resigning from their current position. Among Saenuri Party supporters, 49.2% opposed their running, 8.5% found it acceptable for them to run while maintaining their current position, and only 26.6% found it acceptable for them to run after resigning. Conversely, among Democratic Party supporters, only 33.6% opposed their running, 11.2% found it acceptable for them to run while maintaining their current position, and a higher proportion than the overall average, 39.7%, found it acceptable for them to run after resigning. The strong opposition to running among Saenuri Party supporters and the support for running after resignation among opposition party supporters are interpreted as reflecting political considerations for former representative Park's position within the Saenuri Party and Governor Kim Doo-kwan's position among Democratic Party supporters, respectively.

2. Factors of Instability for CEO Ahn Cheong-soo: Decline in Support Among Centrist/Unaffiliated Voters and a Divided Opinion on Running or Not Running

Decline in CEO Ahn's Support Among Centrist/Unaffiliated Voters

● Conversely, CEO Ahn Cheong-soo, the only hypothetical candidate currently engaging in a close support rating contest with former representative Park Geun-hye among non-Saenuri Party contenders, has shown outwardly that he remains strong by narrowing the support gap with former representative Park in 1:1 matchups compared to the previous month. However, an examination of the trend in support base changes reveals significant factors that could burden CEO Ahn's future endeavors. As observed above, CEO Ahn's support rating in the evaluation of suitability for an opposition unification candidate has largely stagnated, while the support ratings of other candidates, such as former high commissioner Moon Jae-in, have risen, making it difficult to guarantee victory if opposition candidates unite.

● CEO Ahn Cheong-soo's strength lies in his high support among centrist and unaffiliated voters. However, a concerning trend is the decline in his support ratings among these groups following the April 11 general election. [Figure 7] shows a simple support rating change, indicating a significant drop in support compared to the previous month among 20s, in the Honam and Yeongnam regions, and politically, a noticeable decline among ideologically centrist and unaffiliated voters. [Figure 10], which presents 1:1 matchup survey results, confirms this same pattern.

[Figure 10] Trend of Park vs. Ahn Support Ratings in Centrist and Unaffiliated Voter Segments

(1) 1:1 Matchup Among Ideologically Centrist Voters                                       (2) 1:1 Matchup Among Unaffiliated Voters

● First, among the ideological centrists, Director Ahn Cheol-soo's approval rating shows a continuous downward trend from 54.1% (April) to 49.0% (May) and 46.1% in June. Among undecided voters, the decline is also evident, from 62.4% in the April survey to 53.2% in May and 49.7% in June. Representative Park, while experiencing a decline in support and scalability issues, did not allow for a reversal, but is offsetting the decline in support among centrist voters with high support from opposition party supporters who lack a clear alternative among opposition candidates.

Among opposition party supporters, the public opinion on whether to run is weakening: 33.7% say "should run," and 39.3% say "should not run."

If running, should unify opposition candidates: 42.7%, should run independently: 35.2%

● In the survey results from October and December 2011, the author pointed out that while support for Director Ahn Cheol-soo was high, negative responses regarding actual participation in the presidential primary were numerous, suggesting that his support might be symbolic, expressing distrust and dissatisfaction with the existing political establishment rather than support for substantive leadership (EAI Public Opinion Briefing No. 104, 108). In the October survey, 50.3% responded that he should not run, and in the December survey, 43.9% said so. This negative perception regarding Director Ahn Cheol-soo's candidacy has further decreased in the current survey to 39.3%, while the public opinion that he should run has increased to 33.7%, a 5.7%p increase compared to 28.0% in the October 2011 survey.

● Public opinion favoring his candidacy is high among Democratic Party supporters (55.1%) and Unified Progressive Party supporters (59.3%), but not high among undecided voters (30.9%). Among Saenuri Party supporters, only 17.4% expressed support for Director Ahn Cheol-soo's candidacy, confirming a high level of caution. In terms of ideological orientation, 44.9% of progressive voters believed he should run, while only 35.3% of centrists and 23.6% of conservatives were actively supportive of Director Ahn Cheol-soo's candidacy.

● As Director Ahn Cheol-soo's support base is being reorganized around opposition party supporters and progressive voters, changes in attitudes towards his actions if he runs are also observed. In the October 2011 survey, when asked whether he should unify with opposition parties or run independently if he were to run, 42.0% favored running independently and 37.6% favored unifying with opposition parties, with independent candidacy being slightly more popular. In the current survey, public opinion favoring unification with opposition parties is 42.7%, and public opinion favoring independent candidacy is 35.0%. As the gap widens between reliance on centrists/undecided voters for political positioning and reliance on progressive/opposition party supporters for organization, the dilemma that makes it difficult for Director Ahn Cheol-soo to determine his political stance is likely to increase.

[Figure 11] Public Opinion on Director Ahn's Presidential Candidacy [Figure 12] Participation in Opposition Party Unification if Running

【National Issues and Approval Ratings】

1. Presidential approval rating stagnates at 32.2%, criticism of current issues rises

● Despite recent various setbacks for the government, the approval rating for state affairs has slightly declined. In the June survey, it was 32.2%, a decrease of 2.2%p from 34.4% in the May survey. Looking at the approval ratings, due to the failure of the free school lunch referendum in 2011, the defeat in the October 26 by-election, and the corruption scandals and the election commission D-Dos controversy starting at the end of the year, the approval rating fell to its lowest level in January 2012, around 25%, except for the candlelight protests in the first year of the term. However, in 2012, the opposition party failed to capitalize on the sentiment of judging the government for their victory in the general election, and the ruling party won, giving the government political leeway. Following the general election, the center of power shifted towards former interim chairwoman Park Geun-hye, leading to a departure from the political center. However, recent public criticism over issues such as the sale of Incheon International Airport and the Korea-Japan information exchange agreement has intensified, causing the approval rating to stagnate.

[Figure 13] Trend of Presidential Approval Ratings

2. Public Opinion on Current Issues

1) Incheon Airport Stake Sale Decision: "A good decision" 16.7%, "A wrong decision" 68.7%

2) Korea-Japan Military Information Exchange Agreement

- Evaluation of the promotion method: "Should seek public consent" 65.2%

- Evaluation of the agreement content: "Oppose promotion" 21.6%, "Favor promotion" 17.5%, "Possible to promote agreement later" 48.4%

● There was strong critical public opinion regarding the Ministry of Strategy and Finance's decision to partially sell stakes in Incheon Airport and the attempt to conclude the Korea-Japan military information exchange agreement, which have recently emerged as major issues. Regarding the sale of Incheon Airport stakes, 16.7% responded it was a good decision, while 68.7% responded it was a wrong decision, indicating that public backlash will be strong if the government pushes forward unreasonably. Even among Saenuri Party supporters and conservatives, the evaluation of "wrong decision" was 60.5% and 62.3% respectively, indicating strong critical public opinion.

● Meanwhile, regarding the Korea-Japan military information exchange agreement, which was criticized for being negotiated behind closed doors and ultimately postponed, 65.2% responded that it is an issue that "should seek public consent," while only 16.8% agreed with the government's position that it can be promoted under the government's responsibility as a special security-related agreement. However, regarding the agreement itself, 21.6% opposed its promotion considering the special nature of Korea-Japan relations, while 17.5% favored its promotion considering security and national interests. Nearly half, 48.4%, responded that it is an issue that can be promoted in the future, though not at this time, indicating that it is considered a feasible issue in the long term. Pushing it forward unreasonably without sufficient discussion was the main cause of the controversy.

[Figure 14] Opinion on Incheon Airport Sale (%)

[Figure 15] Evaluation of Promotion Method and Agreement Content of Korea-Japan Military Information Exchange Agreement