[Public Opinion Brief No. 104] Outlook for the October 26 Seoul Mayoral By-election

[Public Opinion Brief No. 104] Joint Project by EAI, YTN, and Korea Research: October Regular Public Opinion Barometer Survey

Complexity and Uncertainty of the Electoral Landscape

1. Voter Interest and Intention to Vote: High Interest for a By-election

2. Uncertainty of the Election Landscape: Will the Current Trend Continue?

3. Future Variables

【October 26 Voting Choice】 Turnout Will Be the Biggest Variable

1. Voter Interest and Intention to Vote: 74.7% Interested, 65.3% Will Definitely Vote

Similar to the April 27 by-elections this year and the June 2, 2010 local elections

■ Turnout is one of the biggest variables in the October 26 Seoul mayoral by-election. While there was once discussion of electronic voting and mandatory voting due to a continuous decline in turnout, voter interest and turnout have been increasing since the June 2 local elections last year. In particular, the April 27 by-elections for the National Assembly and provincial governor, which featured intense competition between the ruling and opposition parties in Bundang, Gimhae-B, and Gangwon Province, recorded relatively high turnout rates, nearing 50% for by-elections.

■ The Seoul mayoral by-election is also seeing high interest and intention to vote, comparable to the April 27 by-elections and the June 2 local elections, as both ruling and opposition parties are engaging in a full-scale battle ahead of the 2012 general and presidential elections. The surge of Ahn Cheol-soo, which shook the political scene after the free school lunch debate in August, and the primary election for the unified opposition candidate, Park Won-soon, have garnered significant attention. 74.7% of respondents expressed interest, with 31.0% stating they were "very interested" and 43.6% "somewhat interested." Furthermore, 65.3% said they would "definitely vote," and 19.5% indicated they probably would.

[Figure 1] Voter Interest and Intention to Vote in the October 26 By-election

f2e34dd1a320d063

f2e34dd1a320d063

f2e34dd1a320d063

■ While it is true that the actual voter turnout may fall short of stated intentions due to a tendency to provide socially desirable answers, comparisons with previous by-elections and the June 2 local elections are still possible. As shown in [Table 1], the proportion of respondents who stated they would definitely vote in the April 27 by-elections was relatively high in preliminary surveys conducted by the National Election Commission: 68.1% in Bundang, 63.0% in Gangwon Province, and 65.8% in Gimhae-B. Although actual turnout did not reach these preliminary figures, it exceeded 40% in each case (49.1%, 47.5%, and 41.6%, respectively), indicating relatively high turnout. In the June 2, 2010 local elections for Seoul Mayor, a panel survey conducted by EAI about a month prior showed that 70.7% intended to vote, and the actual turnout was 53.9%, exceeding 50%. In the current survey, the proportion of those with a strong intention to vote is 65.3%, suggesting a higher turnout compared to previous by-elections where this figure remained in the 20-30% range ([Appendix] reference).

[Table 1] Intention to Vote and Actual Turnout in the April 27 By-elections and the June 2, 2010 Seoul Mayoral Election

Source: National Election Commission, EAI Public Opinion Survey Database

2. Election Landscape: Park Won-soon 49.3% vs. Na Kyung-won 40.1%, a 9.2 Percentage Point Gap

Factors for Advantage: Consolidation of Opposition Party Supporters + Relative Advantage among Centrist/Undecided Voters

■ In a three-way race including Park Won-soon, the unified opposition candidate selected through a participatory primary on October 3rd, Na Kyung-won of the Grand National Party, and Ji Sang-wook of the Liberty Forward Party, Park led with 46.2%, followed by Na Kyung-won at 37.2%, and Ji Sang-wook at 2.7%. In a head-to-head contest between Park and Na, Park secured 49.3% and Na Kyung-won received 40.1%, with a gap of approximately 9 percentage points in both scenarios. This suggests that Ji Sang-wook's candidacy is unlikely to be a significant variable in the election outcome. Indeed, Ji Sang-wook announced his withdrawal from the mayoral race the day after the survey results were released.

[Figure 2] Candidate Support Rates in Three-Way and Two-Way Races

f2e34dd1a320d063

f2e34dd1a320d063

f2e34dd1a320d063

Reason for Park's Advantage: Consolidation of Opposition Supporters and Advantage among Centrist/Undecided Voters

Through the candidate unification process, the image of Park as an opposition candidate has strengthened, rather than as a centrist/undecided candidate.

■ An analysis of supporter demographics reveals that Park's advantage is primarily due to the consolidation of opposition party supporters. He shows overwhelming support among younger demographics, progressives, Democratic Party supporters, and supporters of minor progressive parties, while demonstrating a significant disadvantage among those in their 50s and 60s, conservatives, and Grand National Party supporters. Park received 62.6% support from those in their 20s and 64.7% from those in their 30s. His support rate among progressives reached 71.2%, and notably, he garnered 84.9% support from Democratic Party supporters, indicating a strong consolidation of opposition support behind Park. The effect of opposition party supporter defection is expected to be relatively smaller compared to the April 26 by-elections.

■ Park Won-soon maintains a relative advantage by securing over half of the support from the 40s demographic, centrist voters, and undecided voters, who can be considered the balance of public opinion. Park led Na Kyung-won with 51.6% support among those in their 40s compared to Na's 36.9%, and held a similar lead among centrist voters at 52.6%. He also significantly surpassed Na among undecided voters with 57.4% support. While Park has gained a substantial lead among centrist voters by absorbing the support base of Ahn Cheol-soo, who emerged with strong support from this demographic, the candidate unification process has likely strengthened his image as an opposition candidate rather than a centrist/undecided one.

[Table 2] Support for Candidates by Age, Ideology, and Party Affiliation in a Two-Way Race (%)

【Uncertainty of the Election Landscape】

1. Close Race Among Strong Supporters: Park Won-soon 48.1% vs. Na Kyung-won 44.4%

Expected Winner: Park 39.7% vs. Na Kyung-won 26.2%, with 34.1% Undecided

■ However, it is still too early to definitively assess the election landscape. In [Table 2], among those with a strong intention to vote, the race is close with Na Kyung-won at 44.4% and Park Won-soon at 48.1%, indicating that the outcome could change depending on turnout even if current public opinion trends persist. High voting intentions are observed among Grand National Party supporters and conservatives.

■ Furthermore, when asked who they expect to win, 39.7% of respondents favored Park, while 26.2% favored Na Kyung-won, suggesting a majority view Park's advantage. However, a significant 34.1% remained undecided or found it difficult to predict. Given the narrow gap in support and the remaining election period, it is premature to conclude that the election outcome has been decided.

[Figure 3] Assessment of Likelihood to Win (%)

2. Complex Three-Dimensional Electoral Frames: Check-and-Balance Frame ↓ + New Politics ↑ + Administrative Competence ↑ Frame

The complex perception of the October 26 local elections among voters is also likely to influence the fluidity of the election. Instead of a single dominant frame, various dimensions of conflict may intersect, with opinion shifts in each dimension affecting the overall support rates. Predicting the competitive outcome has become considerably more complex. Three main dimensions of electoral frames appear to be competing in this election.

Check-and-Balance Frame 40.8% vs. Stability Frame 32.6%, Weakening of the Check-and-Balance Frame Compared to the June 2, 2010 Election

■ Each party's electoral frame is fundamentally derived from its definition of the election's nature. Given that this election is being held due to the resignation of former Mayor Oh Se-hoon of the Grand National Party following the failure of the free school lunch referendum, and amidst a backdrop of worsening economic conditions, the check-and-balance frame is inherently expected to be more dominant than the stability frame. While 32.6% supported the idea of voting for the Grand National Party for stability, 40.8% favored supporting the opposition party to check the ruling party.

■ However, a comparison with the first Seoul mayoral panel survey conducted by EAI, SBS, JoongAng Ilbo, and Korea Research during the June 2, 2010 local elections reveals a different picture. At that time, the stability frame garnered 26.6% support, while the check-and-balance frame received 51.8%. In contrast, the stability frame has increased, and the check-and-balance frame has relatively decreased. The proportion of those who responded "don't know" has also increased. The anti-incumbent sentiment expressed through the Ahn Cheol-soo phenomenon and distrust towards the opposition parties have weakened the persuasiveness of the check-and-balance frame.

[Figure 4] Stability Frame vs. Check-and-Balance Frame

59.5% Agree with "Support New Political Forces"; The Ruling vs. Opposition Battle Frames as 'New Politics vs. Existing Politics'

- 77.0% of Democratic Party supporters and 71.0% of undecided voters agree with the new politics frame, compared to only 33.6% of Grand National Party supporters.

■ The weakening of the stability vs. check-and-balance frame appears to be primarily driven by distrust in existing politics, as exemplified by the Ahn Cheol-soo phenomenon, and the expectation for new politics. 59.5% of respondents agreed with the frame of "supporting new political forces rather than the Grand National Party, the Democratic Party, and existing parties," while 37.9% disagreed.

■ Examining support by party affiliation, the "new politics vs. existing politics" frame is manifesting as a confrontation between "opposition/undecided voters vs. Grand National Party supporters." Only 33.6% of Grand National Party supporters agreed with the frame of "supporting new political forces rather than the Grand National Party, the Democratic Party, and existing parties," whereas the proportion agreeing with the new politics frame was 77.0% among Democratic Party supporters and 71.0% among undecided voters. This suggests that, in the current context, the opposition represents new politics and the Grand National Party represents existing politics. With approximately six out of ten people demanding the necessity of new political forces, if this dynamic continues, Na Kyung-won will inevitably be at a disadvantage in the electoral frame competition, and overcoming her support deficit through her own efforts will be difficult.

[Figure 5] Party Support by Agreement with Supporting New Political Forces (%)

56.1% See it as an Election for an Administrative Leader, 13.3% as a Judgment on MB, 27.2% as a Prelude to the Next Presidential Election

- If the focus remains solely on political issues without presenting policy visions for Seoul, there is a possibility of backlash.

■ Only 13.3% viewed this election as a judgment on the MB administration, and 27.2% saw it as a prelude to the next general or presidential elections. In contrast, a majority of 56.1% considered it an election to choose an administrative leader for Seoul. Among supporters of the Grand National Party, who are in a politically defensive position, a majority of 64.4% viewed the election as choosing an administrative leader for Seoul. Even among Park Won-soon's supporters, only 21.1% saw it as a judgment on MB, and 27.7% as a prelude to the presidential election, while nearly half, 49.1%, also viewed it as an election to choose an administrative leader for Seoul.

■ Considering the strong public opinion prioritizing the selection of an administrative head over political significance in this election, it is advisable for both parties to avoid overly political campaign strategies. In fact, there is strong caution against approaching this election with an excessively political dimension, not only among conservatives but also among those who believe new political forces should be empowered.

■ Reflecting this public sentiment, Na Kyung-won is emphasizing policy-based campaigning. Conversely, the opposition is currently focusing its campaign strategy on political agendas such as judging the MB administration or preparing for the next general/presidential elections. This approach risks facing public backlash if not complemented by a strategy that builds confidence in administrative capabilities as mayor of Seoul.

[Figure 6] Significance of the October 26 Local Elections

【Election Variables from a Public Opinion Perspective】

1. Personal Appeal: Still Lacking Discriminatory Power

■ While Na Kyung-won is at a disadvantage in the support rate competition as the expectation for new politics among centrist/undecided voters leans towards Park Won-soon, the weakening of the check-and-balance frame compared to last year and the limited public opinion connecting this election to a judgment on the administration or presidential election strategy present opportunities for Na Kyung-won. However, one of the reasons she continues to trail Park Won-soon is that despite advocating for a contest of personal appeal, Na Kyung-won does not demonstrate a clear advantage in this regard.

■ As mayor of Seoul, the evaluation of Park Won-soon and Na Kyung-won on their administrative capabilities and moral integrity, on a scale of 10, showed Park Won-soon scoring 5.8 and Na Kyung-won scoring 5.9 in administrative capabilities, with no significant difference. In terms of moral integrity, Park Won-soon scored 6.1 and Na Kyung-won scored 5.8, also showing no substantial gap. This indicates that Na Kyung-won's strategy of emphasizing policy and individual competition has not yet yielded effective results in the election process. As the official election campaign unfolds, public evaluation of each candidate's individual competitiveness is expected to emerge as a key variable influencing the future election landscape and outcomes.

[Figure 7] Evaluation of Park Won-soon and Na Kyung-won's Administrative Capabilities and Moral Integrity (0 points: Very Insufficient ~ 10 points: Very Sufficient)

2. Park Won-soon's Ideological Positioning and Political Mobilization

Na Kyung-won, with a strong conservative image, faces challenges in expanding support to the centrist demographic.

Park presents a progressive image to progressives and a centrist image to centrists; an excessive shift to the left may weaken support from the centrist demographic.

■ The biggest variable before the candidate registration deadline on the 7th is how Park Won-soon, who was selected as the unified opposition candidate, will position himself ideologically and how he will define his relationship with the opposition party.

■ First, regarding ideological positioning, for Na Kyung-won, 55.1% of all respondents (66.0% among progressives, 49.0% among centrists, and 57.3% among conservatives) perceive her as having a conservative orientation. This is advantageous for consolidating conservative support but may pose an obstacle to expanding her support base to the centrist demographic.

■ However, voter perceptions of Park Won-soon are somewhat divided. While a high percentage of progressives (57.9%) and conservatives (53.7%) view Park Won-soon as progressive, among centrists, responses are mixed, with 35.9% viewing him as progressive and 30.4% viewing him as centrist. Therefore, if Park Won-soon's ideological and policy positioning leans too heavily towards a progressive stance during the election campaign, it could lead to a decline in support from the centrist demographic, which hovers around the majority.

[Table 3] Na Kyung-won's Ideological Evaluation by Ideological Leaning

Note: Average scores are measured on a scale of 0 (progressive) to 5 (centrist) to 10 (conservative). Respondents are classified as progressive (0-4 points), centrist (5 points), or conservative (6-10 points).

[Table 4] Park Won-soon's Ideological Evaluation by Ideological Leaning

Note: Average scores are measured on a scale of 0 (progressive) to 5 (centrist) to 10 (conservative). Respondents are classified as progressive (0-4 points), centrist (5 points), or conservative (6-10 points).

Park Won-soon's joining the Democratic Party is viewed critically; 47.9% of Democratic Party supporters favor joining the Democratic Party.

21.7% favor joining the Democratic Party, 49.5% favor remaining an independent, 8.8% favor a third party.

■ Regarding the issue of joining the Democratic Party after the election, which arose during the candidate unification process, while the necessity of organizational support cannot be ignored, Park himself has not yet finalized a clear stance. However, a decision is needed in some form before the official election campaign begins on the 7th.

■ However, public reaction is negative. Only 21.7% of all respondents believe joining the Democratic Party is necessary, while 48.5% prefer remaining an independent, and only 8.8% favor forming a third party. Among Democratic Party supporters, nearly half (47.9%) wish to join the Democratic Party, but 37.9% prefer remaining an independent, and 5.0% advocate for forming a third party, indicating that even within the Democratic Party, there is considerable reluctance towards Park joining. Meanwhile, 57.6% of unaffiliated voters prefer remaining independent, confirming that this group is most averse to Park joining the Democratic Party.

[Figure 8] Park Won-soon's Path: Joining the Democratic Party vs. Remaining Independent vs. Third Party

3. Key Issue: Continuity of Existing Policies [New Town, Han River Renaissance]

■ Debates are ongoing between candidates regarding the stance the new mayor should take on projects currently being pursued by former Mayor Oh Se-hoon. Specifically, concerning the New Town development project, which was the biggest issue during the last general election, 15.2% favor continued implementation, and 46.6% favor implementation with some adjustments, totaling 61.8% who support continuing the project in some form, representing the majority public opinion. However, for the Han River Renaissance project, only 20.2% favor continued implementation and 32.5% favor partial adjustments, with 52.7% supporting its continuation, exceeding a majority. Nevertheless, 28.7% advocate for a complete review, and 13.7% believe it should be halted, indicating significant opposition. The new Seoul mayor should consider public opinion that favors ensuring continuity through project adjustments at a practical level, rather than unconditionally rejecting or halting previous administration's projects.

[Figure 9] Policy Direction for Mayor Oh Se-hoon's Major Projects (%)