[Public Opinion Brief No. 90] Decline in Support for Representative Sohn Hak-kyu and Public Opinion on Key Issues

Joint Project of EAI and Korea Research: October Regular Public Opinion Barometer Survey

1. Park Geun-hye's upward trend at 34.3%, Sohn Hak-kyu returns to single-digit support (5.7%) in one month

First-choice support: Park 34.3% > Yoo 6.9% > Han 6.6% > Sohn 5.7% > Kim 4.7% > Oh 4.3%

[Figure 1] Change in First-Choice Support for Potential Presidential Candidates (%)

* The October 5th survey was conducted by Dongseo Research.

In the survey of potential presidential candidates conducted on October 5th, immediately after the Democratic Party's national convention on October 3rd (by Dongseo Research), former Representative Park Geun-hye's recovery to the 30% range with 31.5% support and Representative Sohn Hak-kyu's second place with 11.4% support were notable. However, in the October 30th poll, Representative Park Geun-hye showed a continuous upward trend at 34.3%, while Democratic Party Chairman Sohn Hak-kyu dropped to fourth place with 5.7% support, behind Yoo Si-min (6.9%) and Han Myeong-sook (6.6%).

[Table 1] Support for Potential Presidential Candidates (%)

* The May survey was not conducted due to local elections and security perception surveys.

** Special Affairs Minister Lee Jae-oh has been included in the survey since September.

Park Geun-hye's rising support: Effect of improved relations with MB

- Grand National Party: Larger increase among MB's approval base; incumbent candidates Oh Se-hoon and Kim Moon-soo's support declines

Former Grand National Party (GNP) leader Park Geun-hye's upward trend is interpreted as a result of a portion of the presidential and GNP supporters, who were previously negative about conflict with the president following her meeting with President Lee Myung-bak in August, shifting their support to Park. The significant increase in Park's approval rating compared to the September survey, primarily among GNP supporters and President Lee's supporters, lends credence to this interpretation. In contrast to Park's rising popularity, the approval ratings for Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon and Gyeonggi Governor Kim Moon-soo decreased by 4.7% and 4.3% respectively compared to last month. This suggests a strengthening concentration of support towards Park as a potential candidate from the ruling party. In the September survey, Park's overall approval rating was 28.6%, while her support among GNP supporters stood at 45.4%. In the current survey, her approval rating among GNP supporters rose to 54.9%. Among President Lee's approval base, only 36.7% chose Park in the September survey, but this figure increased to 43.7% in the current survey.

Sohn Hak-kyu's support returns to single digits in one month: 11.4% (Oct 5) → 5.7% (Oct 30)

- Disappointment with the October 27 by-elections after the party convention; maintains second place (13.5% combined 1st and 2nd choice) behind Park (44.1%)

The decline in Representative Sohn's support appears to be significantly influenced by the defeat in the October 27 by-elections for local government heads, the first elections held after he assumed the party chairmanship. Democratic Party candidate Kim Seon-ok came in third in the Gwangju Seo-gu district head election, behind independent candidate Kim Jong-sik and People's Participation Party candidate Seo Dae-seok. Although Yoo Si-min and Han Myeong-sook, who were leading before Sohn's rise, secured second and third place respectively, their support also slightly decreased or remained stagnant compared to the September survey. Ultimately, this is seen as a backlash effect from Sohn's declining support.

Is Sohn's surge after the national convention merely a brief episode? It is too early to conclude. While his first-choice support declined significantly, his potential can be seen in the second-choice preference survey, conducted for the first time in this survey. This survey, in addition to the conventional question, "If tomorrow were election day, who would you vote for?", also asked, "Excluding the person above, who would you vote for?". Comparing the first-choice and second-choice responses for presidential candidates, Park received a total of 44.1% (34.3% first-choice, 9.8% second-choice). Representative Sohn Hak-kyu, despite ranking fourth in first-choice support at 5.7%, garnered 7.9% in second-choice responses, totaling 13.6%, narrowly leading former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook (13.5%), former Representative Yoo Si-min (12.5%), and Mayor Oh Se-hoon (12.5%). Considering both first and second-choice support, the decline in Sohn's support after the Democratic Party's national convention may be interpreted not as a withdrawal of support, but rather a shift to second-choice preference.

[Figure 2] First and Second Choice Support by Potential Candidate (%)

Second-choice support represents potential supporters: Park 9.9%, Oh Se-hoon 8.1%, Sohn Hak-kyu 7.9%

Total 1st + 2nd choice: Park 44.1% > Sohn 13.6% > Han 13.5% > Yoo, Oh 12.5% > Kim Moon-soo 10.5%

While Park's combined first and second-choice support of 44.1% significantly leads, her second-choice support was 9.9%, not far from second-place Oh Se-hoon (8.2%) and third-place Sohn Hak-kyu (7.9%). Following them were Han Myeong-sook (4th, 6.9%), Lee Hoi-chang (5th, 6.1%), Yoo Si-min (6th, 5.7%), and Kim Moon-soo (7th, 5.5%). Yoo Si-min, who ranked second in first-choice support, fell to sixth in second-choice support. Chung Dong-young and Chung Mong-joon appear to be trailing significantly in the race for both first and second-choice support.

2. Predicting vote shifts: "If you exclude the candidate you currently support, who would you support?"

▪ Reason for the second-choice presidential support survey

This survey also included a second-choice preference poll. Most current polls calculate support by grouping potential candidates regardless of party affiliation, or by asking respondents to choose a candidate within their respective party (ruling or opposition). The former method helps identify the absolute fixed support base for each potential candidate, while the latter is useful for predicting competitive candidates who may emerge during the primary election phase within each party. To assess the relative competitiveness between ruling and opposition candidates, support polls are typically conducted in hypothetical head-to-head or three-way matchups during the general election phase.

The method of surveying potential candidates without regard to party affiliation differs significantly from the actual presidential election scenario where party representatives compete. Furthermore, surveys asking for preferred candidates within each party do not allow for a comparison of relative vote-getting potential between ruling and opposition candidates. While two- or three-way matchup surveys can estimate the relative support gap between ruling and opposition parties in a manner similar to the election scenario, it is too early for hypothetical matchup polls given the considerable time remaining until the election.

Therefore, in this survey, our research team first asked, as in previous surveys, "If tomorrow were election day, who would you vote for?" among potential candidates, and then followed up with the question, "Excluding the candidate above, who would you vote for?". In the presidential election process, the field often narrows from a multitude of candidates to a group of 2-3 candidates within each camp. At this stage, it is possible to examine who can absorb the support of candidates who drop out and who can better absorb the support of other candidates. Additionally, it allows for the identification of potential support bases for each candidate that were not captured in the first-choice survey, thus serving as an indicator for evaluating each candidate's ability to expand their support base.

If not my preferred candidate, who would I support?

Ruling party: Supporters of Kim Moon-soo and Oh Se-hoon are absorbed by Park Geun-hye's second-choice support.

Among ruling party supporters, a significant number chose former Representative Park Geun-hye as their second-choice candidate when asked to exclude their primary choice. 42.1% of Governor Kim Moon-soo's supporters indicated they would vote for former Representative Park Geun-hye if Kim Moon-soo were excluded. 15.8% chose Oh Se-hoon, and 10.5% each chose Representative Sohn Hak-kyu and former Representative Chung Mong-joon. Conversely, among Mayor Oh Se-hoon's supporters, 51.4% chose former Representative Park Geun-hye as their second choice, while 8.6% each chose Governor Kim Moon-soo or former Representative Chung Mong-joon. Support for Representative Sohn Hak-kyu and Representative Lee Hoi-chang was 5.7% each.

However, among Park Geun-hye's supporters, the highest response was that they had no alternative candidate (21.5%). 15.6% indicated they would support Mayor Oh Se-hoon, and 13.5% would support Representative Lee Hoi-chang. A surprisingly high number, 11.3%, chose Representative Sohn Hak-kyu as their alternative. Support for Governor Kim Moon-soo was only 8.7%. This suggests that Park Geun-hye's supporters have a relatively greater aversion to Kim Moon-soo compared to Oh Se-hoon. It is also noteworthy that Democratic Party Chairman Sohn Hak-kyu possesses a considerable potential support base among the current Grand National Party potential candidates.

Opposition party: High rejection between Sohn and Yoo supporters; relatively low rejection for Han Myeong-sook

If Han Myeong-sook does not run for president, 31.5% of her supporters would support Yoo Si-min, and 16.7% would support Sohn Hak-kyu.

Former Representative Park is absorbing 40-50% of Kim Moon-soo and Oh Se-hoon's supporters in second-choice preferences. The majority of respondents who chose Park as their second-choice candidate were those who supported Grand National Party candidates Oh Se-hoon, Kim Moon-soo, and Chung Mong-joon in the first-choice poll. Consequently, while some expansion of her support base through the primary process is possible by absorbing supporters of fellow party members, it is unlikely to extend significantly beyond consolidating the dispersed support within the Grand National Party.

However, the opposition party faces more serious issues. A significant rejection of opposing candidates was observed among the leading opposition figures, Sohn Hak-kyu and Yoo Si-min. Among Sohn Hak-kyu's supporters, 25.5% chose former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook as their alternative, while only 14.9% chose Yoo Si-min. This is comparable to the 12.8% who would support former Minister Chung Dong-young or former Representative Park Geun-hye. Conversely, among Yoo Si-min's supporters, 25.9% chose former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook as their alternative, but only 16.7% would vote for former Representative Park. Support for Representative Sohn Hak-kyu was only 14.8%. This indicates that supporters of Sohn Hak-kyu and Yoo Si-min are unlikely to shift their support to the opposing candidate even if their preferred choice is unavailable. This foreshadows difficulties in absorbing the support of eliminated candidates during the process of unifying the opposition party, even if a broad coalition is achieved.

While former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook currently receives broad potential support from other opposition party supporters relative to others, it falls short of the absorption power Park Geun-hye exhibits among other Grand National Party supporters. Notably, as expected, Yoo Si-min would benefit the most if Han Myeong-sook does not run for president, with 31.5% of Han's supporters choosing Yoo as an alternative. Support for former Representative Sohn Hak-kyu was 16.7%, and for former Minister Chung Dong-young was 14.8%. However, Yoo Si-min struggles to expand his support base beyond Han Myeong-sook's supporters, failing to effectively absorb supporters of Chung Dong-young and Sohn Hak-kyu, similar to Park Geun-hye's challenges.

Overall, the ruling party's situation shows Park Geun-hye absorbing the support of Kim Moon-soo and Oh Se-hoon's supporters, contrasting with the rejection between supporters of leading opposition figures Sohn Hak-kyu and Yoo Si-min. The proportion of respondents supporting an alternative candidate when their preferred candidate is unavailable is around 15%. Although Han Myeong-sook appears to be in a favorable position to unite opposition supporters, her lack of expressed interest in running for president poses a significant destabilizing factor for the opposition, which is considering unification as a core strategy.

[Table 2] Potential Candidates Chosen as Second Choice by First-Choice Supporters (%)

* How to read the table: The rows listed on the left vertical axis represent the first-choice supporters, and the candidates listed horizontally represent those chosen as second choice. For example, based on the left row, among Kim Moon-soo's first-choice supporters, 42.1% chose former Representative Park Geun-hye as their second choice, 10.5% chose Representative Sohn Hak-kyu, and 15.8% chose Mayor Oh Se-hoon. Similarly, among Kim Moon-soo's supporters who chose him as their first choice, 5.3% chose Representative Lee Hoi-chang as their second choice, 10.5% chose Chung Mong-joon, 2.6% chose Han Myeong-sook, 2.6% chose other candidates, and 10.5% responded 'none'.

3. Presidential approval rating at 51.0%, recovering majority; Democratic Party supporters in their 30s and 40s defecting

MB's approval rating rises for three consecutive months to 51.0%, driven by support from conservatives

President Lee Myung-bak's upward trend continues. After first achieving a majority approval rating during the Cheonan incident, his support dropped to 43.0% following the June 2 local election defeat. He then attempted a political turnaround with the "Building a Fair Society" and "pro-commoner, moderate pragmatism" initiatives outlined in his August 15th commemorative address, and based on presidential approval ratings, he appears to have achieved considerable success. His approval rating rose from 43.7% in the August 28th survey and 48.5% in the September 25th survey, reaching 51.0% in the current month's survey.

[Figure 3] Changes in Presidential Approval Rating, Grand National Party, and Democratic Party Support (%)

Approval rating rose with "Fair Society" initiative, but the upward trend has stalled among progressives and moderates.

Notably, while the President's approval rating rose across all demographics until September following the emphasis on "Fair Society" and "pro-commoner moderate pragmatism," the October survey shows a stagnation of support among moderates and progressives, with a noticeable concentration of support from conservatives. In [Figure 4], during August-September when the President's August 15th initiative was being promoted, his approval rating increased regardless of voters' ideological leanings. The attempts at "fair society" and "pro-commoner" policies, which are agendas that move away from conservatism and are more aligned with progressive values, appear to have resonated well with moderates and progressives.

Between August and September, the approval rating among progressives increased from 30.2% to 36.7%, and among moderates, it rose from 40.1% to 45.7%. Among conservatives, it increased from 58.5% to 62.4%, showing the smallest increase compared to other ideological groups during this period. However, between September and October, support among conservatives continued to rise from 62.4% to 66.1%. In contrast, among moderates, it remained almost unchanged from 45.7% to 47.0%, and among progressives, it stagnated at 36.8% from 36.7%.

Opposition to the Four Major Rivers Project and public outcry over the dismissal of Korean Teachers and Education Workers Union (KTU) teachers appear to have halted the rise in support among moderates and progressives. However, active diplomatic efforts and publicity surrounding the G20 Summit, along with the reunion of separated families, seem to have contributed to the overall increase in approval ratings.

[Figure 4] Changes in National Approval Rating by Ideological Tendency (%)

The gap between Grand National and Democratic Party support returns to double digits; Democratic supporters in their 30s and 40s defecting

Grand National Party 37.3% vs. Democratic Party 23.5%

Looking at the trend of party support, the Grand National Party has consistently maintained support in the low 30% range. In the September survey, it recorded 37.7%, and in the October survey, 37.3%, failing to continue its upward trend. The victories in the July 27th and October 27th by-elections, following internal coordination failures within the government and the Grand National Party regarding the proposed corporate tax cut, did not translate into an increase in party support.

Democratic Party trails Grand National Party among those in their 30s

Conversely, the Democratic Party, despite expectations of a rebound in support following the October 3rd by-election victory and Representative Sohn's rising support, along with interest in generational change among the "486 generation," has seen its support stagnate. This is attributed to defeats in both by-elections after the June 2nd local election victories, marred by controversies in candidate nomination processes. Most importantly, after the national convention, the party has failed to demonstrate subsequent leadership on key issues such as the party's direction and the Four Major Rivers Project. During this period, it lost the initiative in confronting the ruling party due to remarks like those made by former Representative Park Ji-won regarding Xi Jinping, failing to meet the expectations of public opinion that had leaned towards the Democratic Party immediately after the convention. The gap in party support, which had narrowed to single digits behind the Grand National Party after the June 2nd local elections, has widened back to double digits.

Particularly noteworthy is the shift in opinion among the 40s demographic, which acts as a balance in public opinion, from favoring the Democratic Party to favoring the Grand National Party again. Even the 30s demographic, which strongly favored the Democratic Party in the September survey, is showing a trend of shifting towards supporting the Grand National Party in the October survey. Only in the 20s demographic does the Democratic Party maintain its advantage.

[Table 3] Changes in Party Support by Age Group (%)

[Table 4] Changes in Party Support (January-October 2010) (%)

* First asked in the December 2009 survey

** Includes 'No party affiliation' and 'Don't know/No response' combined.

*** The January 14th survey was not a regular survey but the result of a joint political issue survey by EAI and Maeil Business Newspaper (1,002 respondents).

**** Pro-Park Geun-hye Alliance was renamed Future Hope Alliance in February 2010. On April 2nd, the Future Hope Alliance resolved to merge with the Grand National Party. Defectors formed the Future Alliance on April 18th (Lee Gyu-taek).

***** Inserted for Hanwha-gap's new party (Party for Peace and Democracy) and Shim Dae-pyung's new party (National Alliance for the People) from March to May 2010. Marked under 'Other'.

4. Current Issues Public Opinion Briefing

Distribution vs. Growth: Prioritize Distribution 54.3% vs. Prioritize Growth 39.2%

Many opinions favored prioritizing income distribution over economic growth. The proportion of respondents who answered that income distribution is more important than economic growth was 54.3% (18.0% very important + 36.3% somewhat important). The proportion of respondents who emphasized economic growth over income distribution was 39.2% (13.8% very important + 25.3% somewhat important).

[Figure 5] Perception of Importance: 'Economic Growth' vs. 'Income Distribution' (%)

Dismissal of Teachers Joining the Democratic Labor Party: Positive 37.9% vs. Negative 53.4%

The government recently decided to dismiss and expel 61 teachers who had joined the Democratic Labor Party. The public's perception of this government action was not favorable. The proportion of respondents who thought it was positive, combining 'very positive' (17.6%) and 'somewhat positive' (20.3%), was 37.9%. On the other hand, the proportion of respondents who thought it was negative, combining 'very negative' (20.8%) and 'somewhat negative' (32.6%), was 53.4%. The proportion of negative responses was 15.5 percentage points (p) higher than the proportion of positive responses.

[Figure 6] Dismissal of Teachers Joining the Democratic Labor Party

Corporate Corporate Tax Cut: For 45.0% vs. Against 45.1%

Recently, a controversy has arisen regarding the withdrawal of 'tax cuts for the wealthy' initiated by the Grand National Party. Regarding corporate taxes, a key component of tax cuts for the wealthy, the Grand National Party is emphasizing 'withdrawal' while the government is emphasizing 'maintenance,' creating discord between the party and the government. Public opinion on this matter was also found to be sharply divided. The proportion of opinions in favor of corporate tax cuts was 45.0% (19.5% strongly in favor + 25.5% somewhat in favor). The proportion of opinions against was 45.1% (21.0% strongly against + 24.1% somewhat against), indicating no clear majority for either side.

[Figure 7] Public Opinion on Corporate Tax Cuts: For and Against (%)

Government Explicitly Designating North Korea as Enemy: 43.7% in Favor vs. 49.5% Against

Regarding whether the government should explicitly designate North Korea as an enemy, the proportion of respondents who oppose this designation slightly exceeds those who support it. Specifically, 43.7% of respondents were in favor (25.0% strongly in favor + 18.7% somewhat in favor). Conversely, 49.5% of respondents were against the designation (21.6% strongly against + 27.9% somewhat against). This outcome indicates that despite the strengthened negative perception of North Korea following the Cheonan incident, a relatively large segment of the public maintains a cautious stance on explicitly designating North Korea as an enemy.

[Figure 8] Public Perception of Explicitly Designating North Korea as Enemy by the Government (%)