[Public Opinion Briefing No. 89] MB Approval Rating Rises to 48.5%, Reigniting the Fair Society Initiative

Joint Project of EAI and Korea Research: September Regular Public Opinion Barometer Survey

1. Presidential Approval Rating: Up 4.8%p from Last Month, Approaching 50% at 48.5%

[Figure 1] Changes in Presidential Approval Rating (%)

* The August 21 survey was conducted by Seoul Newspaper and Korea Research with 1,000 respondents; the remaining surveys were conducted by EAI and Korea Research with 800 respondents for the Regular Public Opinion Barometer.

Prime Minister Nominee Kim Tae-ho and Minister Yoo Myung-hwan Resign - Leading to a Rise in MB's Approval Rating and Public Support for the Pro-People Fair Society Theory

The government and ruling party's plan, which aimed to win back public sentiment that had turned away after the June 2nd local elections and secure political initiative in the latter half of their term by advocating for pro-people, pragmatic diplomacy and the realization of a fair society, as presented in the August 15th congratulatory address following the August 8th cabinet reshuffle featuring a prime minister nominee in his 40s, faced a crisis of derailment during the confirmation hearings but now appears to be regaining momentum. The approval rating, which had risen to 48.7% in the August 21st Seoul-Korea Research poll conducted immediately after the August 15th address, dropped to 43.7% in the EAI-Korea Research poll conducted on August 28th, immediately after the confirmation hearings. This was a drop of 5%p in just one week. Notably, in September, the Lee Myung-bak administration faced significant setbacks in its governing plans for the latter half of its term due to another major controversy over fairness concerning the special hiring of Minister of Foreign Affairs Yoo Myung-hwan's daughter.

During the first half of his term, President Lee Myung-bak consistently pushed forward with decisions, largely disregarding reactions from the political sphere or public opinion. However, in a relatively swift response, Prime Minister Nominee Kim Tae-ho resigned immediately after the confirmation hearings, and Minister Yoo Myung-hwan, one of the longest-serving ministers, was effectively dismissed. This appears to have been a response to concerns that personnel management issues could destabilize the overall national strategy for the latter half of the term. The outcome seems to align with the Blue House's expectations. In the EAI-Korea Research September Regular Public Opinion Barometer survey conducted on September 25th, the approval rating rose by 4.8%p from the previous month to 48.5%, nearing a majority once again.

Support for Pro-People Pragmatic Diplomacy at 58.7%, Support for Fair Society Initiative at 63.5%, Both Up 8%p from Last Month

In the August survey, when asked "How do you evaluate the pragmatic diplomacy that President Lee Myung-bak has recently emphasized?", positive responses were 50.8% (8.2% very positive, 42.5% somewhat positive), exceeding negative responses of 44.0% (12.9% very negative, 31.1% somewhat negative). In the current survey, positive responses increased to 58.7% (11.4% very positive, 47.3% somewhat positive). Negative responses were 35.6% (10.1% very negative, 25.4% somewhat negative). Furthermore, regarding the question "How do you evaluate the realization of a fair society, which President Lee Myung-bak proposed as the policy direction for the latter half of his term in his August 15th congratulatory address?", positive responses were already 55.2% (10.0% very positive, 45.2% somewhat positive) in the August survey, with negative responses at 37.8% (10.6% very negative, 27.2% somewhat negative). In the September survey, positive responses rose significantly to 63.5% (13.8% very positive, 49.6% somewhat positive).

[Figure 2] Favorable Public Opinion on the August 15th Political Initiative Rises (%)

2. Kim Hwang-sik Nominee: 42.3% "Appropriate Appointment," 38.2% "Inappropriate Appointment," 19.5% "Don't Know/No Response"

More favorable than Kim Tae-ho, who received many negative evaluations before the hearing.

Favorable in Honam region, 42.8% said "appropriate appointment", 30.8% said "inappropriate appointment"; opinions divided in the Seoul metropolitan area and Chungcheong region.

With the rise in the President's approval rating and a more favorable public opinion regarding the August 15th national agenda planning, it appears that the burdens from the previous confirmation hearing and the special recruitment scandal of Minister Yoo Myung-hwan have been largely alleviated. Attention is now focused on the confirmation hearing of Prime Minister nominee Kim Hwang-sik, scheduled for the 29th-30th.

In fact, negative public opinion was prevalent even before the confirmation hearing of Prime Minister nominee Kim Tae-ho began. When asked "What do you think about appointing former Governor Kim Tae-ho, in his 40s, as Prime Minister?", a survey conducted on the 21st, before the hearing, showed that 30.3% responded 'appropriate appointment' and 46.9% responded 'inappropriate appointment'. Additionally, 22.8% responded 'don't know', indicating a volatile situation. However, in a survey conducted on the 28th, after the hearing (24th-25th), the 'appropriate appointment' response dropped by 10.4 percentage points to 19.9%, while the 'inappropriate appointment' response increased by 19.1 percentage points to a significant 66.0%. This deterioration in public opinion ultimately led to pressure for his resignation.

Regarding the appointment of Prime Minister nominee Kim Hwang-sik, 42.3% responded 'appropriate appointment' and 38.2% responded 'inappropriate', indicating a slightly more favorable evaluation. Overall, among supporters of the Grand National Party, the 'appropriate' response was high at 59.6%, while among Democratic Party supporters, it was 33.6%, revealing polarized evaluations. Among unaffiliated voters, negative opinions (39.5%) and undecided/unanswered (34.5%) were more prevalent than favorable opinions (26.0%), which is a concern. If the confirmation hearing escalates into a political issue, there is a possibility of returning to a state of political confrontation. However, a notable point is that in the Honam region, Kim Hwang-sik's home region, 42.8% responded 'appropriate appointment' while only 30.8% responded 'inappropriate appointment', indicating a higher level of favorable public opinion. This appears to reflect considerable anticipation for the birth of the first Prime Minister from the Jeonnam region. In the Seoul metropolitan area, opinions were evenly split between favorable and unfavorable, while in the Chungcheong region, negative evaluations were more common; conversely, positive evaluations were more prevalent in the Honam and Yeongnam regions [See Table 1].

In conclusion, the new Prime Minister nominee is in a somewhat more favorable position compared to former nominee Kim Tae-ho. Indeed, he has experience passing through two confirmation hearings, and considering that the Democratic Party and other opposition parties are unlikely to be able to fully focus on verification due to their national conventions or audit sessions, it was true that this confirmation hearing was expected to proceed relatively smoothly. However, while favorable opinions exist, negative responses are also considerable, and the undecided/unanswered group accounts for 19.5%, meaning public opinion could be fluid depending on the unfolding of the confirmation hearing. The President and the government cannot be entirely at ease. In particular, the Democratic Party, which had shown a conciliatory attitude considering Honam public opinion, is now preparing for thorough verification while facing criticism from other opposition parties and public opinion, and suspicions not revealed in past hearings have also emerged. Therefore, it remains to be seen whether these suspicions will be resolved during the confirmation hearing process and whether the appointment will be successful, or if the situation will repeat the precedent of former nominee Kim Tae-ho.

[Figure 3] Evaluation of former Governor Kim Tae-ho's appointment as Prime Minister (%)

[Table 1] Evaluation of former Chairman of Board of Audit and Inspection Kim Hwang-sik's appointment as Prime Minister (%)

3. Party Approval Ratings: Will the Grand National Party return to 40% support?

The gap in approval ratings between the Grand National Party and the Democratic Party widens again to double digits; the 40s demographic returns to supporting the Grand National Party.

Preference for Democratic Party's Next Party Leader: Sohn 23.8% > DY 13.0% > Chung Sye-kyun 6.8%; one in three Democratic Party supporters "not interested".

Looking at recent trends in party approval ratings, the Grand National Party has consistently recorded support in the low 30% range. In the September survey, it rose to 37.7%, an increase of 5.1% from the previous month. This is the highest approval rating since it fell from over 40% around the 2008 general elections to the mid-30% range following the candlelight protests. Attention is focused on whether it will rise back to the 40% support range. This increase in approval ratings appears to be due to President Lee Myung-bak's August 15th national agenda planning garnering considerable public support, and the party's active voice during the confirmation hearings and the subsequent Yoo Myung-hwan scandal.

Conversely, the Democratic Party, following its victory in the June 2nd local elections, surpassed 20% for the first time since the current administration began, entering the 30% range with 27.1% in the June survey and 30.7% in the July survey. However, after losing the August 28th by-election, its approval rating declined to 23.9% in the August survey. In this survey, it rose by 1.4 percentage points to 25.3%, showing little change from the previous month. However, due to the increase in the Grand National Party's approval rating, the gap between the two parties widened from 8.7 percentage points in the August survey to 12.4 percentage points in September. While the gap had narrowed to single digits following the June 2nd local elections, the aftermath of the August 28th by-election loss and the overall lack of excitement surrounding the national convention have led to a widening of the approval rating gap.

[Figure 4] Approval Rating Trends of the Big Two Parties: May-September (%)

A particularly noteworthy point is that the 40s demographic, which serves as a balance for public opinion trends, has shifted from favoring the Democratic Party to favoring the Grand National Party again. Around the June local elections, the Democratic Party's support among those in their 40s surpassed that of the Grand National Party, and this trend continued until August. However, in this survey, there has been a shift back towards the Grand National Party.

However, as in the June survey, the Democratic Party maintained its advantage in the 20s, 30s, and 40s demographics in the August survey. In the 20s, the Grand National Party's approval rating was 25.9% and the Democratic Party's was 29.5%, widening the support gap. In the 30s, the Grand National Party had 17.1% and the Democratic Party had 23.8%. In the 40s, the Grand National Party recorded 25.2% and the Democratic Party recorded 32.3%. The Grand National Party received high support from those aged 50 and above at 49.8%, while the Democratic Party received only 15.9%.

However, in the September survey, the 40s demographic, which had shifted towards the Democratic Party following the June local elections, saw the Grand National Party regain the lead with 32.9% support compared to the Democratic Party's 21.5%. While the Democratic Party's support ratings increased among the traditional Democratic Party base of the 20s and 30s compared to the previous month, the 40s demographic, which had shifted to favor the Democratic Party after the local elections, has now reversed. It is worth closely tracking whether this is a temporary phenomenon or a sustained trend.

[Table 2] Approval Rating Trends by Age Group for Both Parties (%)

[Table 3] Party Approval Rating Changes (January-September 2010) (%)

* First asked in the December 2009 survey.

** Combined value of "No party affiliation" and "Don't know/No response."

*** The January 14 survey is from the EAI-Maeil Business Newspaper Joint Political Issues Survey (1,002 respondents), not a regular survey.

**** The Pro-Park Alliance was renamed the Future Hope Alliance in February 2010. On April 2, the Future Hope Alliance resolved to merge with the Grand National Party. Defected members formed the Future Coalition on April 18 (Lee Gyu-taek).

***** From March to May 2010, Hanwha-gap's new party (Peace Democratic Party) and Shim Dae-pyung's new party (National Central Alliance) were included in the options. They were categorized under "Other."

The main opposition Democratic Party holds a national convention for its party leader election. Will it serve as an opportunity for party reform?

48.7% of the entire population and 33.8% of Democratic Party supporters responded “Not interested/No answer”

Entire population: Sohn 23.8% > Chung Dong-young 13.0% > Chung Sye-kyun 6.8%. Democratic Party supporters: Sohn 24.8% > Chung Dong-young 23.0% > Chung Sye-kyun 11.8%.

Ahead of the National Convention on October 3rd, the Democratic Party is experiencing internal conflict over the next party leader election. Although the party leader election is determined by 70% delegate votes and 30% party member opinion polls, meaning public opinion is not directly reflected, it is worth comparing how the public envisions the next leadership of South Korea's primary opposition party with the leadership elected by the party. However, the election for the next Democratic Party leader has failed to generate interest and excitement among voters. When asked, “Who do you prefer as the next Democratic Party leader?”, former party leader Sohn Hak-kyu received the highest support at 23.8%, followed by candidate Chung Dong-young at 13.0%, former leader Chung Sye-kyun at 6.8%, and Representative Cheon Jung-bae at 4.9%. Representative Park Ju-sun, currently referred to as one of the "Big Four," appears to have a limited popular base with less than 1.0% support. Following him were former representative Lee In-young (0.8%), representative Choi Jae-sung (0.6%), and representative Cho Bae-sook (0.4%).

However, centering on Democratic Party supporters, the results of party sentiment differ from overall public opinion. Former leader Sohn at 24.8% and former leader Chung Dong-young at 23.0% are in fierce contention. Former leader Chung Sye-kyun garnered 11.4%, Representative Cheon Jung-bae 4.1%, Representative Park Ju-sun 1.4%, Choi Jae-sung 0.9%, and former representative Lee In-young only 0.3%. As the final outcome is primarily determined by the combined weighted votes of delegates, the election results could change depending on the alliances formed between the leading contenders vying for first and second place.

The issue is that interest in the election for the next leadership is very low, not only among the general public but even among Democratic Party supporters. As much as 48.7% of all respondents answered ‘Not interested’ (38.7%) or were ‘Unsure/No answer’ (10.0%). Even among Democratic Party supporters, one in three, or 33.8%, were ‘Not interested’ (24.2%) or ‘Unsure/No answer’ (9.6%). Despite the prevailing assessment that the Democratic Party lacks presence as the primary opposition party and has not yet established itself as a party capable of governing, as pointed out by most candidates, the upcoming National Convention is failing to generate excitement among both the general public and party supporters. This is evident as the focus shifts towards alliances between candidates rather than the selection of leaders or the development of realistic visions and strategies to address these issues.

[Figure 5] Preferred Next Democratic Party Leader Candidates by Overall Voters and Democratic Party Supporters (%)

3. Next Presidential Election: Park Geun-hye Maintains Lead with Rising Approval Rating

Park Geun-hye 28.6% > Yoo Si-min 10.6% > Oh Se-hoon 7.2% > Han Myeong-sook 6.8% > Sohn Hak-kyu/Kim Moon-soo 6.1% (in order)

In the September survey of potential presidential candidates, former leader Park Geun-hye, who has recently expanded her political activities by meeting with pro-Lee Myung-bak faction lawmakers and female lawmakers, holds a firm lead with 28.6% support, a 4.8 percentage point increase from the previous month. Second is former minister Yoo Si-min, who has maintained consistent support between 7.8% and 10.6% since the beginning of the year. Mayor Oh Se-hoon, who had been out of the public eye since the June 2nd elections, ranks third with 7.2% support. Han Myeong-sook is fourth with 6.8%, while Governor Kim Moon-soo and former leader Sohn Hak-kyu, both touted as potential rivals to former leader Park Geun-hye, tied for fifth with 6.1% each.

Excluding candidate Park Geun-hye, all other candidates are in contention within the margin of error, leading to frequent shifts in rankings. However, Governor Kim Moon-soo, who had only garnered 2-3% support at the beginning of the year, saw his support rise to the 6-9% range starting in June. He recently experienced a surge in support by cultivating an image as a rival to Park Geun-hye through his public stance against President Lee Myung-bak following the confirmation of former Governor Kim Tae-ho as Prime Minister. While his support appears to have faltered somewhat in this survey, similar to Mayor Oh Se-hoon, former leader Sohn Hak-kyu, who had remained at a 2% support rate until June, broke through the critical 5% barrier in August as he began his campaigns for both the presidency and party leadership. Although his support rating is still low, he appears to have secured a position within the leading group of opposition candidates, along with Yoo Si-min and Han Myeong-sook. Lee Hoi-chang, leader of the Liberty Forward Party, garnered 4.6%, Chung Dong-young 4.2%, former representative Chung Mong-joon 3.1%, former leader Chung Sye-kyun 1.0%, and Minister Lee Jae-oh 0.4%.

[Table 4] Next Presidential Candidates

* The May survey was not conducted due to local elections and security perception surveys.

** The option for newly appointed Prime Minister Kim Tae-ho was added in the August survey.

*** Starting with the September survey, former Prime Ministers Kim Tae-ho and Chung Un-chan were excluded from the survey pool as they resigned from their posts. Special Minister Lee Jae-oh was added as an option.