[Opinion Briefing Issue 76-1] 2010 World Issues Survey / Soft Power of 17 Power Nations

[Opinion Briefing Issue 76] BBC · GlobeScan · Maeil Business Newspaper · EAI

2010 Global Poll Survey in 28 Countries: "The Soft Power Competition and the Challenges for Korea's Attractive Diplomacy"

1. 2010 World Issues Survey / Soft Power of 17 Power Nations as Perceived by the World

2. G2 International Reputation: National Analysis / The Current State of Korea's Soft Power and Policy Challenges

2010 World Issues Survey (2010 Global Poll): Soft Power of 17 Power Nations

G2 in Hard Power, Lagging Behind EU and Japan in Soft Power: US 7th, China 8th

Korea Lacks Presence, Ranking 12th Among 13 G20 Nations

While the US and China are referred to as the G2, dominating the world order with military and economic power (hard power), they are outranked by European nations and Japan in soft power, which is evaluated based on cultural attractiveness and global reputation. A public opinion poll conducted among 29,977 respondents in 28 countries, selecting 17 major power nations worldwide and assessing their international reputation and image, revealed that global perceptions of the US and China were more negative compared to major European countries and Japan. This finding is based on an analysis of the international reputation of major global powers, conducted as part of the '2010 Global Poll' by the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) in consortium with major research institutions and media organizations worldwide. Twenty-three of the 28 countries had conducted the same survey in 2009.

[Figure 1] Participating Countries in the 2010 Global Poll Survey of 28 Nations

The 2010 survey was conducted in 28 countries, encompassing over 55% of the global population. These included 2 countries in North America (USA and Canada), 4 in Central and South America (Mexico, Brazil, 5 Central American countries, Chile), 6 in Europe (Germany, Spain, UK, Italy, Portugal, France) plus Russia, 3 in Africa (Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya), 2 in the Middle East (Egypt, Turkey), and 10 in Asia (Azerbaijan, India, Indonesia, Japan, China, Thailand, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Australia). The participating countries span developed, developing, and less developed nations, and most have participated annually, allowing for tracking of global public opinion trends. Among the 28 countries participating in 2010, 23 had also participated in the 2009 survey. Brazil, Azerbaijan, Thailand, Pakistan, and South Korea were newly included in the 2010 survey. South Korea had participated annually since 2005 but did not participate in the 2009 survey due to internal circumstances.

[Table 1] 28 Countries Participating in the 2010 Survey and 23 Countries Participating in the 2009 Survey

Global Poll Survey Series: Reputation Survey of Major Power Nations Annually Since 2005

South Korea Selected as a Nation for Reputation Assessment Starting with the 2010 Survey

The Global Poll international survey series, initiated in 2005, selects approximately 10 influential power nations each year and gauges global public opinion regarding their reputation. The 17 power nations included in the 2010 survey comprised G7 countries such as the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Japan, Italy, and Canada; four BRICS nations (China, India, Brazil, Russia) among the G20 countries gaining prominence due to the economic crisis; South Africa; the European Union (EU), which is moving towards political integration with the election of its first president on November 19, 2009; and South Korea. Additionally, four 'rogue states' influencing world order through negative means, such as nuclear development and international conflicts, were included: North Korea, Iran, Pakistan, and Israel. Sixteen of these nations, excluding South Korea, were also part of the survey prior to 2009. At the request of the East Asia Institute (EAI) and Maeil Business Newspaper, South Korea was included as a nation to be assessed for the first time in the 2010 survey, with plans for annual assessments henceforth.

The Global Poll international survey series is managed by GlobsScan, an international public opinion consulting firm accredited with ISO 9001. Since 2005, Maeil Business Newspaper and EAI have participated in the consortium representing South Korea. The survey was conducted between November 30, 2009, and February 16, 2010, following international standard procedures through face-to-face interviews or telephone surveys. In each country, a sample of over 1,000 general citizens, allocated proportionally to the population, was divided into two groups, also proportionally allocated, with over 500 respondents in each group providing assessments of the countries. The survey in South Korea was conducted by Korea Research on January 11-12, with 1,002 respondents contacted via telephone (see Appendix for Survey Methodology).

Soft Power of 17 Power Nations as Perceived by the World

1) Why Soft Power?

Post-9/11 US Isolation and the Onset of Soft Power Competition Among World Powers

Following the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the United States, the world's superpower, experienced significant international isolation. This isolation stemmed from rising anti-American sentiment among Islamic communities and even among governments and populations of traditional allies, exacerbated by the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and a backlash against the unilateralist foreign policy driven by the Bush administration's neoconservatism. This situation is considered one of the key factors leading to the emergence of the Obama administration, which emphasizes coexistence with Islam and multilateral cooperation with allies (Armitage and Nye 2007).

These experiences underscored the importance of soft power—the ability to persuade and elicit voluntary agreement through non-material resources such as emotional appeal, values, and cultural attractiveness, particularly among the general public and private sectors of other nations—alongside hard power, which relies on material resources and coercive means like military strength, economic power, and political influence (Kim Sang-bae 2005). Consequently, a full-fledged competition in soft power, in addition to hard power, is now underway not only for the United States but also for China, emerging as a pillar of the G2 and aspiring to become a superpower in Asia and globally, as well as for established powers like the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Japan that have historically been central to the world stage (Ha Young-sun 2006; Nye 2004; Whitney and Shambaugh 2009).

South Korea, too, is actively pursuing an increase in its international standing and the enhancement of its soft power as key diplomatic objectives, moving away from a passive, minor-power diplomacy in the international community and the Asian region at the government level. Accordingly, the importance of public diplomacy, targeting the populations of neighboring countries, is growing, in addition to summit diplomacy and official intergovernmental diplomacy aimed at elevating the nation's status (Lee 2009). The transition from a recipient of aid to a donor nation, hosting the G20 Summit in 2010, and the Nuclear Security Summit in 2012 can be seen as part of these efforts.

Global Reputation: A Key Indicator for Measuring Soft Power

The Global Poll international survey annually analyzes the global reputation of major power nations, including the G2 (US and China), G20 members, and 'rogue states' that pose threats to the international community, through public opinion polls. The assessments by the private sector, particularly the general public in other countries, regarding a nation's international role reflect a complex interplay of emotional affinity, cultural appeal, and image. Global reputation can be considered one of the core indicators of a nation's soft power. Therefore, the analysis of international reputation is expected to provide a strategic map illustrating the progress of the soft power competition among global powers, as well as serving as a mirror for objectively diagnosing the achievements and challenges of each nation's soft power diplomacy strategies.

2) 2010 Global Poll: Survey Results on the International Reputation of 17 Power Nations

[Table 2] presents the average responses from citizens of 27 countries regarding the question: "Do you believe this country plays a positive or negative role internationally?" for each of the 17 power nations in 2010. For countries included in the 17 assessed nations, their own survey results were excluded from the average calculation to ensure objectivity. For these countries, the average is based on 27 countries' responses, not all 28. However, for South Korea, since a survey was not conducted in Thailand, the average is based on 26 countries' responses, excluding South Korea and Thailand.

[Table 2] International Reputation of 17 Global Powers: Average Response from 27 Countries (%)

G7 Nations' International Roles Viewed Positively: Germany 59% > Japan/EU 53% > UK 52% > Canada

In 2010, as in 2009, Germany was rated highest by global citizens for playing a positive international role. The average response across 28 countries showed 59% positive evaluations, while only 14% viewed its role negatively, with the remaining 27% undecided or withholding their response. Following Germany, Japan and the EU received the next highest positive evaluations, both at 53%. The United Kingdom (52%) and Canada (51%) also received positive assessments from global citizens, followed by France (49%). This indicates that the G7 nations, which have historically demonstrated leadership in international affairs and the global economy prior to the rise of the G20, are highly regarded for their international leadership.

G2 Soft Power Falls Short of Hard Power: Positive Evaluations at 46% (7th) for US, 41% (8th) for China

Favorable perceptions of the US and China, the two main drivers of the world order, do not match those of major European nations and Japan. Only 46% of respondents viewed the US's international role positively, and 41% for China, ranking them 7th and 8th, respectively, among the 13 G20 countries surveyed. Negative evaluations stood at 34% for the US and 38% for China, with 20% and 21% undecided or withholding their response, respectively. These figures suggest a considerable degree of ambivalence towards these nations. This may reflect concerns that their overwhelming military superiority and strong global economic influence (hard power) could translate into unilateral hegemonic policies.

Korea Ranks 12th Among 13 G20 Nations; Caution Against Complacency Needed

Positive Evaluation 32%, Negative Evaluation 29%, Undecided/No Response 39%

Despite government efforts to enhance South Korea's international standing and promote soft power diplomacy, the nation's international reputation remains relatively low. Only 32% of respondents viewed South Korea's international role positively, while a significant 29% perceived it negatively. In terms of positive evaluations, South Korea lags behind China (41%) and India (36%), and even South Africa (34%). Among the 13 G20 countries assessed, South Korea ranks second to last in international reputation, just above Russia (30%). While some anticipate rapid results from recent presidential diplomacy and government public diplomacy initiatives, as Armitage and Nye point out, public diplomacy and soft power strategies must be pursued with long-term vision and strategy. Therefore, South Korea's current low ranking in international reputation among G20 nations suggests the need for more strategic and vigorous public diplomacy efforts moving forward.

Threatening Nations Perceived Negatively: Iran 56% > Pakistan 51% > Israel 50% > North Korea 48%

The nations receiving the most negative assessments from respondents across the 28 countries were Iran, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea. These countries are currently subjects of international scrutiny regarding nuclear development or are involved in major conflicts. Iran received the lowest positive evaluation at 15% and the highest negative evaluation at 56%. Pakistan's positive evaluation was 16% and negative 51%; Israel's was 19% positive and 50% negative. North Korea, which raised international concerns with its nuclear test and long-range missile tests in 2009, received only 17% positive evaluations, while 48% viewed its role negatively, indicating a strong 'rogue state' image.

2010 vs. 2009 Comparison: Only the US Improves Image Thanks to Obama Effect; Most Nations Remain Stagnant

Comparing the 2009 survey results from 23 countries with the 2010 results presented in [Table 2], most developed nations, excluding the United States, show a trend of weakening or stagnant international reputation, albeit not dramatically. In contrast, perceptions of the US are uniquely improving. Overall, significant changes are difficult to detect.

Germany, consistently holding the top position, saw its positive image slightly decrease from 61% in 2009 to 59% in 2010. Japan, ranking second this year, also experienced a decline from 56% in 2009 to 53%. The UK's positive evaluations dropped by approximately 5 percentage points, from 57% to 52%, and France's fell from 53% in 2009 to 49% in 2010. This downward or stagnant trend is also observed among emerging economic powers like Brazil, India, Russia, and China (BRICS nations), as well as among 'threat' countries such as Iran, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel. It is possible that the inclusion of survey results from the five countries that did not participate in 2009 may distort the year-over-year changes. A separate analysis of the 23 countries that participated in both the 2009 and 2010 surveys was conducted (Figure 2). While there are slight variations compared to [Table 1], the upward trend for the US and the stagnation for other countries remain evident.

[Figure 2] Percentage of Positive Evaluations of International Reputation for 17 Nations: Average Response from 23 Countries Participating in Both 2009-2010

G2 International Reputation Time-Series Comparison: US and China Reputation Reverses for the First Time in 6 Years Since 2005

Comparing the G2, namely the US and China, the US's international image has improved since the Obama administration took office, while China's international reputation remains stagnant. In the 2009 survey of 23 countries, conducted just before the inauguration of the Obama administration, positive evaluations of the US's international role were 40%, with negative evaluations at 45%, indicating a net negative image. China received 40% positive and 40% negative evaluations, with 20% undecided. This marks the first time since the annual surveys began in 2005 that positive evaluations of the US have surpassed those of China.

[Figure 2] Changes in Positive Evaluation Rate of G2's International Role (Global Poll 2005-2010)

*Note: Number of surveyed countries in parentheses

Observing the trend of positive evaluation rates for the international roles of both countries since 2005, the US's ratings remained in the 30-40% range during the Bush administration (2005-2008), following the outbreak of the Iraq War. The rate was 35% in the 2005 survey (22 countries), 40% in 2006 (33 countries), and dropped to 30% in 2007 (27 countries). However, as the Bush administration began to ease its unilateralist policies in its later term, the ratings started to rise. They reached 38% in the 2008 survey (34 countries), recovered to 40% just before the Obama administration took office in 2009, and have now climbed to 46% in the current survey.

In contrast, China's positive reputation has consistently remained in the mid-to-late 40% range, with 48% in the 2005 survey, 45% in 2006, 42% in 2007, and 48% again in 2008. However, the rate dropped to 40% in the 2009 survey and 41% in the current survey, marking the first time in five years that it has fallen behind the US.