[Public Opinion Briefing 73-1] MB Support at 49.1%, Upward Trend in Approval Ratings Falters

[Public Opinion Briefing 73] EAI · Korea Research March Regular Public Opinion Barometer Survey

1. MB's State Approval Rating at 49.1% Positive Evaluation; Upward Trend Falters Before Majority Support

2. Party Support / Next Presidential Candidate

Recent controversies involving the government and ruling party leadership appear to have had an effect. However, this has not led to a decline in approval ratings.

Support for the Sejong City amendment shows a weakening trend: 50.4% (November) ⇒ 47.6% (February) ⇒ 45.3% (March)

[Figure 1] Changes in President Lee Myung-bak's State Approval Ratings (%)

In the regular survey conducted on March 27, President Lee Myung-bak received 49.1% approval (12.2% strongly approving, 36.9% generally approving), failing to extend the upward trend that had continued for four consecutive months since November of the previous year. Negative evaluations stood at 48.3% (32.0% generally disapproving, 16.2% strongly disapproving), with 2.7% undecided/no response. The President's approval rating, which had fallen to 39.2% during the controversy surrounding the revision of the Sejong City plan in November, had steadily risen to 49.2% in the February 2010 survey, drawing attention to the possibility of surpassing majority support.

However, the March survey failed to break the majority, with approval settling at 49.1%. This is the result of the February regular public opinion barometer survey conducted by the East Asia Institute and Korea Research on March 27. The telephone survey was conducted on 800 adult men and women nationwide, with a sampling error of ±3.5% at a 95% confidence level (response rate 13.2%).

The failure to achieve further increases in approval ratings appears to be due to various negative factors that emerged in March, including repeated controversial remarks by floor leader Ahn Sang-soo of the ruling party (e.g., increased sexual violence due to left-wing education, remarks about left-wing chief priests at Gangnam temples), Chairperson Choi See-joong of the Korea Communications Commission's disparaging remarks about women (advocating for the 'wise mothers and good wives'), Minister Yu In-chon's reported threat to sue the uploader of a video of Kim Yuna, and the resignation of MBC board member Kim Woo-ryong following his 'big house joint' remark. The recent questioning of the credibility of testimony during the trial of former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook and the prosecution's criticism for allegedly overzealous investigation, prompted by the court's recommendation to amend the indictment, may also have contributed to the burden on approval ratings.

Given the repeated negative incidents, to the extent that even within the ruling party calls for tighter control over remarks were raised, it is fortunate that the decline in approval ratings was not significant. This can be attributed to the fact that most of these negative incidents did not stem from the core policy initiatives of this administration but rather from controversial remarks by the Grand National Party or specific individuals, and thus were not perceived as the President's sole responsibility.

No significant changes in state approval patterns across demographic groups

Looking at demographic breakdowns, while approval ratings increased or decreased among different groups, statistically significant changes were difficult to find. Overall, the pattern of favorable public opinion towards the President's state administration among low-income, low-education, elderly, and residents of the Seoul Metropolitan Area/Yeongnam region, and strong critical opinions among high-income, high-education, young, and residents of the Chungcheong/Honam region, remained unchanged.

Upward trend in Yeongnam, downward trend in Seoul, Chungcheong, and Honam

Regionally, the highest approval ratings were recorded in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk region, a traditional support base for the Grand National Party, at 66.5%, followed by Busan/Gyeongnam/Ulsan at 54.7%, Seoul at 49.7%, and the Incheon/Gyeonggi region at 49.5%. Approval ratings in the Chungcheong region were 36.7% and in the Honam region were 26.5%, significantly below the average. Compared to the previous month, ratings increased by 7.5 percentage points in Daegu/Gyeongbuk and 9.3 percentage points in Busan/Gyeongnam/Ulsan. In contrast, there was a downward trend in Seoul (-5.7 percentage points), Honam (-3.7 percentage points), Chungcheong (-3.0 percentage points), and Incheon/Gyeonggi (-1.1 percentage points). While the lower ratings in the Honam region, traditionally strong in anti-Grand National Party sentiment, and the Chungcheong region, where public opinion shifted due to the Sejong City issue, are understandable, the decline in approval ratings in the Seoul Metropolitan Area warrants attention. It remains to be seen whether this is due to simple sampling error or an actual trend. However, the Sejong City issue, which had strengthened pro-MB public opinion in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, has moved away from the center of political discourse. In this context, the government's various negative incidents may be perceived as issues reminiscent of the past 'pro-communist vs. anti-communist' divide or attempts to control the media, potentially leading to an alienation of reform-minded voters in the Seoul Metropolitan Area.

Gap in support ratings between those in their 20s-30s and those 50+ widens

Support rating falls below average in the 40s at 39.5%

By age group, support in the 20s was 36.1% and in the 30s was 33.9%, significantly below the average support rating. Notably, the 40s, which had shown consistent support ratings around the average, recorded a support rating of 39.5% in this survey, about 10%p lower than the overall average of 49.1%. The decline in support among the 40s may be linked to the decline in support in the Seoul metropolitan area, particularly in Seoul. Given that most of the 40s belong to the generation formerly known as the '386 generation,' this could be a result of a more sensitive reaction to recent negative issues originating from the ruling party. Support among those aged 50 and above was high at 71.4%.

Support for MB among low-income and low-education groups; anti-MB sentiment persists among high-income, middle-income, and high-education groups

Severe polarization in national assessment between Grand National Party supporters and Democratic Party supporters

By income level, support was high among those with a monthly household income of less than 1 million won (63.2%) and between 1 to 2 million won (59.5%). Support was 52.3% for those earning around 2 million won, 35.1% for those earning around 3 million won, and 45.5% for those earning 4 million won or more. Low-income groups continue to lead the support for President Lee Myung-bak.

By education level, support was 66.6% among those with junior high school education or less, and 53.4% among high school graduates, while it was only 42.0% among those with a college degree or higher.

Support among Grand National Party supporters was 87.5%, while it was 20.5% among Democratic Party supporters, indicating a deepening political polarization where presidential evaluations diverge based on party affiliation. Support among the centrist group rose by 4.5%p from 37.0% last month to 41.5%, but it is noteworthy that this figure still falls short of the average support rating.

[Table 1] Changes in Presidential Approval Ratings: December 2009 - March 2010 (%)

* The survey on January 14 was not a regular survey but a result of a joint political issue survey by EAI and Maeil Business Newspaper (1,002 respondents).

** Includes those with no party affiliation, and 'Don't know/No answer'.

Support for the Sejong City revision plan is weakening

Support for the Sejong City revision plan: 50.4% (November) ⇒ 47.6% (February) ⇒ 45.3% (March)

Meanwhile, the Sejong City issue, which sparked intense conflict between the pro-Lee and pro-Park factions after the details of the revision plan were specified in February, has temporarily subsided as discussions within the Grand National Party are centered around the senior lawmakers' consultative body, which is active until the end of March. The government also submitted its revised plan to the National Assembly on March 23, shifting the focus to the legislative process and monitoring the parliamentary discussions.

Public opinion on this matter shows a continuous weakening of support for the revision plan compared to November of last year when the Sejong City revision plan was first proposed. In the November survey, 50.4% supported the revision plan, 31.4% supported the original plan, and 18.2% withheld their answer. However, in the current survey, 45.3% supported the revision plan, 33.7% supported the original plan, and 21.0% withheld their answer. Although not a drastic change, public opinion that previously supported the revision plan is showing a tendency to shift towards supporting the original plan or withholding their answer. This is a burden for the government, which expects the revision plan to be passed during the April session after the senior lawmakers' consultative body concludes its activities.

In particular, according to media reports, public opinion on the Four Major Rivers Project, which the President is actively promoting, remains lukewarm. If this issue becomes a point of contention in the local elections, the policy drive to push through the Sejong City revision plan is unlikely to be smooth. The consideration by the Grand National Party leadership of strategically nominating Lee Wan-koo, former governor of South Chungcheong Province, who resigned to take responsibility for the promise of the original Sejong City plan for the elections in the South Chungcheong region, lends weight to this outlook.

[Figure 2] Changes in Public Preference for the Sejong City Policy (%)

Weakening support for the revision plan in Daegu, Gyeongbuk, and Chungcheong regions

Although the sample size by region is small and interpretation has limitations, regional trends in Sejong City support show that Seoul (54.7%), Busan/Gyeongnam/Ulsan (49.7%), and Gyeonggi/Incheon (45.8%) showed support above the average, while Daegu/Gyeongbuk (39.2%), Honam (35.0%), and Chungcheong (27.0%) fell below the average support rating. Notably, the Daegu/Gyeongbuk region saw a decrease of -8.9%p compared to the previous month's survey, and the Chungcheong region saw a decrease of -7.0%p. Lee Dong-kwan, Senior Secretary to the President for Public Relations, had expressed strong dissatisfaction with the public opinion in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk region, which feels relatively marginalized, but the government and ruling party's subsequent response appears to have failed to sway public opinion in this region.

[Table 2] Changes in the Scale of Public Support for the Sejong City Revision Plan by Region (%)