[Public Opinion Brief 64-2] A Comparison of US and Chinese Leadership on Key Issues as Viewed by 20 Countries

[Public Opinion Brief 64] US and China's Underwhelming Soft Power: Overcoming Half-Baked Leadership

1. Assessment of US and Chinese Soft Power Ahead of the US-China Summit

2. A Comparison of US and Chinese Leadership on Key Issues as Viewed by 20 Countries

Both the US and China have succeeded in building cooperative foreign policy images.

Both the US and China receive failing grades on climate change response. "Effectively addresses climate change": US 39%, China 34%

The US's image of military threat and China's image of human rights abuses tarnish their international reputations.

[Figure 1] Assessment of US and Chinese Leadership on Key International Issues by 20 Countries

Both the US and China have succeeded in building cooperative foreign policy images.

- "Is its relationship with other countries cooperative?" Positive evaluations: US 59%, China 53%

Survey results indicate that both the United States and China have achieved considerable success in cultivating a cooperative image rather than a hegemonic one in their foreign policies. Out of the 20 countries surveyed, 59% of respondents viewed U.S. foreign relations as cooperative. Similarly, in over half of the countries, an average of 53% of respondents perceived China as having a cooperative image rather than a hegemonic one.

The Obama administration received positive evaluations for its cooperative foreign relations from countries with strong favorable attitudes toward the U.S., such as Kenya (83%) and Nigeria (77%), as well as from Western allies like the United Kingdom (62%), France (58%), and Germany (54%), and Asian nations including Indonesia (73%), South Korea (63%), and India (61%). In the Middle East, however, positive response rates were significantly below a majority in Egypt (37%), Turkey (35%), and Iraq (27%). This suggests that despite the Obama administration's efforts to foster reconciliation with the Islamic world, it has not yet fully overcome the distrust of the public in Middle Eastern Islamic countries.

In China's case, it received positive evaluations from a majority of respondents in former Soviet Union countries such as Azerbaijan (89%), Ukraine (81%), and Russia (73%), as well as in Islamic countries like Egypt (56%) and Iraq (52%). It also received favorable assessments from neighboring Asian countries including Pakistan (94%), Indonesia (79%), and India (50%). Conversely, a relatively high level of distrust towards China's cooperative foreign policy was evident in developed Western countries such as the United States (34%), the United Kingdom (26%), France (26%), and Germany (21%).

[Figure 2] Evaluation of U.S. Foreign Relations (Unit: %)

Note: U.S. results excluded from the average value

[Figure 3] Evaluation of China's Foreign Relations (Unit: %)

Note: China's results excluded from the average value

Distrust in Both US and China Regarding Climate Change Response: "Good at Addressing Climate Change" US 39%, China 34%

However, with the upcoming December Copenhagen International Conference, where 192 countries will gather to negotiate a new climate change agreement, global public opinion showed considerable distrust in the approaches of both the United States and China towards climate change. While an average of 39% of respondents across 20 countries positively evaluated the U.S. approach to climate change, 41% responded negatively, with a further 21% abstaining. For China, only a slightly lower 34% accepted its climate change response methods, while 42% opposed them and 23% abstained. This likely reflects criticism of the two countries, the world's top two greenhouse gas emitters, for their consistently lukewarm stance on addressing global warming and climate change.

For the United States, positive evaluations for its climate change response were received from African countries with strong pro-U.S. sentiment, such as Kenya and Nigeria, and some Asian countries like South Korea (67%), Indonesia (56%), and India (53%). However, in most other countries, the proportion of positive responses regarding its climate change approach was very low. Even among Western developed nations, which are relatively favorable to U.S. leadership on climate change, such as France (27%), the United Kingdom (26%), and Germany (25%), the response was lukewarm.

Public opinion regarding China was even more negative. While relatively high positive evaluations were noted in African countries with overwhelming pro-China sentiment, Pakistan (93%), and some Asian countries like Indonesia (55%) and India (44%), positive responses in other countries fell significantly short of a majority. As with other issues, particularly strong negative reactions were observed in developed Western countries, including Germany (13%), France (11%), and the United Kingdom (10%).

[Figure 4] Effectively Addressing Climate Change: United States (Unit: %)

Note: U.S. results excluded from the average value

[Figure 5] Effectively Addressing Climate Change: China (Unit: %)

Note: China's results excluded from the average value

The image of military threat for the U.S. and human rights abuses for China tarnish their national reputation

- 77% agree that "The U.S. uses military threats for its own interests," while 49% believe "China uses military threats."

Survey results indicate that the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, fought twice during the Bush administration, continued to be a significant burden on the U.S.'s international reputation even after Obama's ascendance. A striking 77% of respondents from the 20 countries believed that the U.S. would resort to military threats to protect its own interests. This perception was high not only in Middle Eastern countries directly or indirectly involved in the Iraq War, such as Iraq (79%), Turkey (86%), and Egypt (86%), but also among citizens of Western allies who participated in the war, including the United Kingdom (83%), France (72%), and Germany (66%). Notably, in South Korea, where anti-U.S. sentiment had somewhat subsided since the mid-Roh Moo-hyun administration, a remarkable 92% responded that the U.S. uses its military power for its own interests.

In contrast, the possibility of China using military threats is perceived as relatively lower compared to the United States. Only in Western countries like the U.S. (75%), the UK (59%), Germany (58%), and France (53%), and some South American countries such as Chile (65%) and Mexico (58%), and some Asian countries like South Korea (75%) and India (54%), did a majority or more point to the possibility of Chinese military threats. In other countries, little weight was given to the potential for Chinese military threats.

[Figure 6] Uses Military Threats for Its Own Interests: United States (Unit: %)

Note: U.S. results excluded from the average value

[Figure 7] Uses Military Force for Its Own Interests: China (Unit: %)

Note: China's results excluded from the average value

U.S. Leads in Human Rights Diplomacy

- 50% agree that "The U.S. respects human rights," versus only 36% agreeing that "China respects human rights."

In the realm of human rights, international reputation serves as a strength for the United States and a weakness for China. Survey results asking whether the U.S. respects human rights showed an average agreement of 50% across the 20 countries. The proportion of respondents who disagreed was only 38%. In contrast, the percentage of respondents who agreed that China respects human rights was 36%, while those who disagreed numbered 52%.

Excluding the U.S. itself (87%), South Korea showed the highest positive response rate (82%) regarding U.S. efforts to respect human rights. Similar to the response patterns observed in other diplomatic issues, Western allies such as the United Kingdom (66%) and France (52%), and countries like Kenya (78%) and Nigeria (79%) also showed high positive evaluation rates. However, Islamic countries with strong anti-U.S. sentiment, such as Pakistan (18%) and Turkey (18%), Egypt (30%), and Iraq (30%), as well as Latin American countries like Chile (35%) and Mexico (31%), showed a high proportion of negative responses to U.S. human rights diplomacy. Notably, a high positive evaluation of the U.S. policy of respecting human rights was observed in newly independent states from the former Soviet Union, such as Azerbaijan (79%) and Ukraine (65%), which have generally shown cold attitudes towards the U.S.

Regarding China, favorable opinions that it respects human rights were prevalent in Asian countries (excluding South Korea), African countries, and Islamic countries (excluding Turkey). Conversely, a significant distrust in China's human rights policies was evident in Western democratic countries, including the U.S., as well as in South Korea within Asia and Latin American countries with experiences of prolonged military dictatorships.

[Figure 8] Respects Human Rights: United States (Unit: %)

Note: U.S. results excluded from the average value

[Figure 9] Respects Human Rights: China (Unit: %)

Note: China's results excluded from the average value

Implications of U.S. and China's Soft Power Strategies

Genuine G2 Status Requires Demonstrating Leadership in Solving Global Issues like Climate Change

U.S. Must Shed its Image of Military Unilateralism and Strengthen Public Diplomacy with the Islamic World

China Should Focus on Strengthening Western Diplomacy by Overcoming its Image of Human Rights Abuses

While the United States and China are emerging as the twin pillars of global order stability and change as world superpowers, their soft power—the ability to garner respect and trust from other nations—still has a long way to go compared to their hard power. The results of this international opinion poll across 20 countries demonstrate that in an era where global influence is no longer solely dictated by physical coercion, both the U.S. and China must invest more in attractive diplomacy and public diplomacy, beyond intergovernmental relations, to foster trust and favorability among the global populace, thereby becoming true global leaders for world stability and sustainable development.

Firstly, the U.S. must move beyond its "half-leadership" status, where its favorable reputation is largely confined to the Western world and some Asian countries like South Korea, while China is only recognized by citizens in Middle Eastern and Asian Islamic countries and former Soviet Union nations with strong anti-U.S. sentiment. To achieve this, the U.S. needs to make more decisive efforts to yield tangible results in its diplomacy of reconciliation with the Islamic world. China, while historically focusing its soft power strategy on neighboring Asian countries and resource diplomacy in Africa, must now prioritize public diplomacy towards the West, as this survey clearly indicates a pressing need to gain trust and favorability from the perspective of developed Western nations.

In specific areas, both the U.S. and China can shed their "half-leadership" image and build a reputation befitting true global leaders, commensurate with their hard power, by demonstrating more proactive leadership in resolving global issues such as climate change. The U.S., in particular, appears unable to translate the favorable international opinion generated since the Obama administration into soft power, largely due to its failure to shed the image of military unilateralism formed during the previous two wars. Overcoming this image of military unilateralism is likely to be a major challenge for Obama's foreign policy. However, the unstable situations in Afghanistan and Iraq continue to complicate matters, requiring the Obama administration, which promised a swift withdrawal of U.S. troops, to consider additional deployments. This dilemma suggests that as long as these circumstances persist, it will be difficult to resolve the image of military unilateralism that the U.S. possesses.

Meanwhile, China's one-party system centered on the Chinese Communist Party and its coercive policies in controlling ethnic minorities significantly undermine the legitimacy of its political system and foreign policy. While China has long rejected the universality of Western human rights values and emphasized the legitimacy of its own human rights framework, this approach has failed to gain traction from a Western perspective. The economic might of the 1.3 billion-strong Chinese market and its accumulated dollars may mask negative perceptions of Chinese socialism and human rights in emerging African nations. However, it remains questionable whether economic appeal alone can alleviate the growing apprehension towards China in European markets, which possess long-standing democratic traditions and immense economic potential, or in established Asian nations like South Korea. The paramount challenge for China, as it rises to G2 status, is to cultivate an appeal in its political and social system that can resonate globally, beyond merely demonstrating its economic prowess.

Evaluation of U.S. and China's Foreign Policies on Key Diplomatic Issues