[Public Opinion Brief 64-1] Assessment of US-China Soft Power Ahead of the US-China Summit

[Public Opinion Brief No. 64] US and China's Soft Power Fall Short of Expectations: Overcoming Half-Baked Leadership

1. Assessment of US-China Soft Power Ahead of the US-China Summit

2. Comparison of US and China's Leadership on Key Issues as Seen by 20 Countries

Soft Power of the Superpower G2 as Perceived by Global Public Opinion - The Limits of Half-Baked Leadership

Even as the world grapples with economic recession, China, which has maintained its rapid growth and demonstrated diplomatic prowess in issues such as the North Korean nuclear problem, has emerged as a G2 nation, rapidly establishing itself at the center of the global order alongside the United States. While the U.S. still maintains its superpower status in terms of hard power, including military and economic strength, it has become clear that the two wars and economic crises have strained its capacity to lead the world alone. Consequently, observations suggest that the timeline for a US-China power struggle, once thought to be distant, may be approaching sooner than anticipated.

A crucial variable in predicting the future cooperative and competitive relationship between the US and China will be global public opinion. The era where hard power, such as visible military and economic strength, alone could dictate global affairs became evident during the previous Bush administration. As China, which still lags significantly behind the US in hard power competition, intensifies its efforts to bolster its soft power, a full-fledged soft power competition between the two nations is now underway.

From November 15th to 18th, US President Barack Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao will meet for the first time in China. Attention is focused on how the US and China will navigate their bilateral relations and international issues under the new Obama administration. The summit will address not only trade issues but also significant global challenges such as the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs, international development, and climate change. Intense cooperation as well as subtle maneuvering and competition are expected between the two superpowers.

Following the bilateral summit, a climate change convention involving approximately 190 countries is scheduled for December, aiming to establish a new climate treaty as a core task among global issues. It will be of interest to see which of the world's top two carbon emitters, China and the United States, will demonstrate the true qualities of a global leader by making sacrifices for their national interests to address this global challenge.

As the US-China soft power competition intensifies, the University of Maryland's WorldPublicOpinion.org survey of 20 countries offers insights into the current state of this competition and its future trajectory. This survey, conducted from April to July among citizens of 20 countries by the University of Maryland's Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) in collaboration with the East Asia Institute (EAI) of Korea and others, involved a total of 20,349 respondents, with a margin of error of ±3-4% at a 95% confidence level.

G2's Soft Power Falls Short of US and China's Hard Power - Global Opinion Lukewarm

- Opinion in 20 Countries: Positive International Role for G2? US 40%, China 44%

- Divided Global Opinion: West-Pro-US, Middle East/Eastern Europe-Pro-China - Limited to Half-hearted Leadership

Unlike hard power, which achieves objectives through coercive means such as military strength, economic power, and political influence, soft power relies on a nation's reputation and its diplomatic approach to garner favor among foreign populations, thereby eliciting voluntary agreement and cooperation. To measure the soft power of the United States and China, their international reputation regarding their roles in the global arena was surveyed across 20 countries. The international reputation of the G2 nations, the US and China, was not particularly favorable.

Responses indicating that the US plays a positive role in the international community were 40%, while those indicating a negative role were also 40%, resulting in a tie. 20% abstained from answering. In contrast, positive assessments of China were 44%, negative assessments were 34%, and 22% abstained. While China's assessment is relatively better than that of the US, positive evaluations for both countries fell short of a majority. Global opinion was favorable towards President Obama's election, emphasizing multilateral cooperation diplomacy and departing from unilateral foreign policy. However, the fundamental distrust of US unilateral diplomacy has not been entirely resolved. China, which is focusing on strengthening its international leadership rather than directly competing with US hard power, is also not yet recognized as a global leader. Meanwhile, a high number of abstentions suggests a lack of public interest or insufficient information regarding international affairs.

[Figure 1] Average Responses from 20 Countries on the International Roles of the US and China (Unit: %)

Soft Power of the US and China: Concerns Over Half-hearted Leadership

OECD Developed Democracies = Pro-US Stance; Some Islamic/Former Soviet States = Pro-China Stance

With the exception of a few countries, positive assessments of the US and China's international leadership were lukewarm, failing to reach a majority. However, a clear divergence in perspectives between the US and China emerges when examining individual countries. The US receives favorable evaluations from developed democratic nations in Western Europe but is met with indifference from Middle Eastern and Islamic countries. Western OECD countries such as the UK (58%), France (52%), Poland (51%), and Germany (44%) showed high levels of favorable public opinion towards the US. Conversely, in Middle Eastern Islamic countries like Iraq (23%), Turkey (16%), and Egypt (15%), the proportion of positive responses regarding US leadership was very low. Regionally, African countries, heavily reliant on US-led political and economic aid, were the most favorable towards the US. In Kenya, 81% of citizens, and in Nigeria, 70%, held positive views on US international leadership. In Asia, South Korea (68%) and India (47%) showed relatively high favorable opinions, while Islamic countries like Indonesia (32%) and Pakistan (10%) received very low ratings.

Conversely, China receives negative evaluations from developed democratic nations within the OECD, including the US, while garnering support from Middle Eastern and former communist bloc countries. While positive response rates were low in developed European countries such as the US (33%), France (26%), Poland (25%), and Germany (21%), they were high in some Middle Eastern countries like Azerbaijan (52%) and Egypt (42%), as well as Russia (44%). Notably, China also received very high positive evaluations in Africa, where the US was viewed very favorably. In Kenya, 76% of respondents, and in Nigeria, 75%, held positive views. This appears to be a result of China's resource diplomacy, actively pursued in regions like Africa. In Asia, Pakistan (89%) and South Korea (54%) exceeded a majority in positive evaluations, but India (39%) and Indonesia (38%) fell short, indicating mixed perceptions of China. Among Middle Eastern countries, Iraq (39%) and Turkey (22%) showed indifference not only towards the US but also towards China.

Western European countries like the UK, France, and Germany exhibit a 'pro-US, anti-China' public opinion, while some Middle Eastern/former Soviet Union countries show a strong 'pro-China' sentiment, leading to a divided perspective on the US and China. However, a considerable number of nations, including Iraq, Turkey, Indonesia, and India in Asia, maintain a lukewarm attitude towards both the US and China. Consequently, despite being classified as superpowers in terms of hard power, the G2's soft power has proven to be a limited, half-hearted leadership exercised only within a select group of favorably inclined nations, rendering the title of global superpower somewhat hollow.

Both the US, seeking to maintain its status as the world's sole superpower, and China, emerging as a new competitor, clearly face the challenge of embracing regions and countries that question their leadership in order to exert global leadership.

[Figure 2] Assessment of the US's International Role (Unit: %)

Note: US results excluded from the average; blank in the middle indicates abstention.

[Figure 3] Assessment of China's International Role (Unit: %)

Note: US results excluded from the average; blank in the middle indicates abstention.

South Korea's Positive Assessment Exceeds Majority for Both G2 Nations: US Positive Assessment 68%, China Positive Assessment 54%

- Significantly Eased Since Mid-term of Participatory Government Amidst 2002 Candlelight Protests

- Positive Perceptions of US and China in South Korea are Correlated; Need to Move Beyond a Dichotomy of US vs. China

Excluding African nations, which are highly dependent on both the US and China, South Korea's favorable opinion towards both superpowers was exceptional. While South Korea assigned a higher score to the US's role (68%), over half (54%) also positively assessed China. The strong favorable opinion towards both the US and China in South Korea appears to be a product of its strategic environment, where cooperation with the US is crucial for political and security matters, and cooperation with China is vital for economic reasons.

In fact, periodic surveys on the international roles of the US and China in South Korea have consistently shown parallel trends of increase and decrease. Following a deterioration in public opinion towards the US triggered by the 2002 death of two schoolgirls, public favorability towards the US role surged around 2006, as North Korea's nuclear development intensified and the Bush administration's unilateral diplomacy began to wane. This trend further accelerated with the advent of the Obama administration. China's image has been improving since a sharp decline in 2004, following the Northeast Project controversy. The positive perception of China has been strengthening as its role in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue becomes more visible, and particularly in light of the deepening US-originated economic crisis, its sustained growth, and its increasing importance as a South Korean export market and economic cooperation partner.

[Figure 4] Changes in the Percentage of Positive Assessments of the International Roles of the US and China by South Koreans (%)

[Figure 5] Classification of Perception Types Based on the Percentage of Positive Assessments of the International Roles of the US and China by Country