[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 55-2] Basic Analysis 1_Analysis of the Korean Leadership Landscape in 2009

[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 55] Survey on Trust and Influence of Powerful Political Leaders and Public Opinion on Constitutional Amendment

1. Summary_Korean Political Leadership in Crisis: Survey on Trust and Influence

2. Basic Analysis 1_Analysis of the Korean Leadership Landscape in 2009

3. Basic Analysis 2_Public Desires Constitutional Amendment for Balance and Stability over Government Efficiency

Analysis of the Korean Leadership Landscape in 2009

Korean Politics Lacks Trustworthy and Powerful Leaders



Top 10 Powerful Politicians: 2009 Survey on Trust and Influence Results: Leaders Lose Trust Upon Taking Office

Influence: Lee Myung-bak Ranked 1st > Park Geun-hye Ranked 2nd > Kim Dae-jung Ranked 3rd > Chung Sye-kyun Ranked 4th

Trust: Park Geun-hye Ranked 1st > Kim Dae-jung Ranked 2nd > Lee Myung-bak Ranked 3rd > Yoo Si-min Ranked 4th

Yoo Si-min and Chung Dong-young Ranked Lowest in Influence; Kim Hyeong-o and Park Hee-tae, Who Led the Media Legislation, Ranked Lowest in Trust

* Blanks in 2007 indicate individuals newly included in the 2009 survey



Lee Myung-bak, Park Geun-hye, and Kim Dae-jung Form the Big Three; Trust in Leadership Plummets

Trust and Influence Scores for Ruling and Opposition Party Leaders, National Assembly Speaker, and Potential Presidential Candidates Are All Low

The crisis in Korean political leadership is severe. According to the results of a survey on the trust and influence of powerful politicians, conducted for the second time in two years since 2007, there is a profound lack of trust in the key political figures wielding influence in the current political climate. The East Asia Institute, JoongAng Sunday, and Korea Research selected ten prominent Korean politicians—including former and current presidents, presidential candidates, the current National Assembly Speaker, and current party leaders—who exert influence on the current political landscape, and asked about their influence and trustworthiness. In this survey, where respondents rated from a minimum of 0 to a maximum of 10, a score of 5 represents a moderate level.

In terms of influence, President Lee Myung-bak ranked first with 6.15 out of 10 points, followed by Representative Park Geun-hye with 5.61 points in second place, and former President Kim Dae-jung with 4.87 points in third place, forming the 'Big Three' of Korean political leadership. Chung Sye-kyun, leader of the Democratic Party, who was at the center of conflicts during the recent passage of the irregular worker law and media legislation, ranked fourth with 4.11 points. National Assembly Speaker Kim Hyeong-o and Grand National Party leader Park Hee-tae ranked in the middle tier with 4.02 and 4.01 points, respectively. Supreme Council member Chung Mong-joon and Representative Lee Hoi-chang, both potential presidential candidates, followed with 3.95 and 3.89 points. Former Minister of Health and Welfare Yoo Si-min, emerging as a representative of the pro-Roh faction after the death of former President Roh Moo-hyun, ranked ninth with 3.79 points, while former Uri Party leader Chung Dong-young, now an independent, ranked lowest in influence with 3.27 points.

Meanwhile, in terms of trustworthiness, Representative Park Geun-hye ranked first with 5.01 out of 10 points, just above the midpoint, followed by former President Kim Dae-jung with 4.74 points in second place. President Lee Myung-bak, who ranked first in influence, dropped to third place with 4.27 points. The sharp decline in President Lee Myung-bak's trust score, whose political trust base had nearly collapsed due to protests such as the candlelight vigils early in his administration, was largely predictable. Former Minister of Health and Welfare Yoo Si-min received a relatively high trust score of 4.04 points, despite his lower influence. Party leader Chung Sye-kyun scored 3.84 points, former Prime Minister Lee Hoi-chang scored 3.69 points, and Supreme Council member Chung Mong-joon remained in the lower-middle tier with 3.55 points. Former Representative Chung Dong-young, who won his seat as an independent in the recent by-election, ranked ninth among the ten individuals with 3.26 points. National Assembly Speaker Kim Hyeong-o and Grand National Party leader Park Hee-tae, who were instrumental in the recent forceful passage of the media legislation, ranked eighth and tenth, respectively, with scores of 3.28 and 3.18, placing them in the lowest tier.

Ultimately, the crisis in Korean leadership stems from the absence of political leaders who can exercise strong leadership based on public trust. While President Lee Myung-bak and Representative Park Geun-hye surpassed the 5-point mark in influence, indicating they are recognized by the public as powerful leaders, their trust scores are relatively low. Most other politicians are evaluated as neither exerting significant influence nor earning public trust. Among them, former President Kim Dae-jung is considered the only politician currently capable of influencing national affairs to some extent.

[Figure 1] Trust and Influence Landscape of Key Leaders in 2009

[Figure 2] Trust and Influence Landscape of Key Leaders in 2007

Changes Since the Change of Administration

Conservative Leaders' Influence Stagnates, Trust Declines; Progressive Leaders' Influence and Trust Rise

Distrust in Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye Grows; DJ and Yoo Si-min's Leadership Emerges; Chung Dong-young Remains in Lower Ranks

Comparing the results with the 2007 survey reveals notable trends. Leaders of the ruling party face public criticism and lose influence and trust, while opposition leaders gain influence and trust by capitalizing on this criticism. The repetition of this vicious cycle is concerning, as it indicates a failure to establish successful presidencies and leadership.

For conservative political leaders, who currently form the ruling bloc, their influence has generally stagnated, while their trustworthiness has sharply declined. During the 2007 presidential election campaign, President Lee Myung-bak received an influence score of 6.24, and Representative Park Geun-hye also received a high evaluation of 5.70. Although their scores have slightly decreased, the reduction is not substantial. Representative Lee Hoi-chang's score was 3.69 in the 2007 survey, prior to his return to politics, but as the leader of a second opposition party, he now scores 3.89, a slight increase. However, all of them have lost trust points under the current administration. Notably, President Lee Myung-bak, who ranked first in trustworthiness with 5.64 points in the 2007 survey, dropped to 4.27 points in the current survey. Representative Park Geun-hye and Representative Lee Hoi-chang also saw their trust scores decrease by 0.27 points (from 5.38 to 5.01) and 0.48 points (from 4.17 to 3.69), respectively, compared to 2007. The decline in Representative Park Geun-hye's trustworthiness appears to reflect public perception that her actions, such as those during the media legislation process, and her focus on presidential ambitions rather than her responsibilities as a political leader, have reinforced her image as the head of a specific faction rather than a national leader, amidst intra-party factional conflicts within the current government.

[Figure 1] Changes in Influence and Trust Scores of Lee Myung-bak, Park Geun-hye, and Lee Hoi-chang After the Change of Administration

Conversely, progressive politicians tend to regain influence and trust after losing power. Former President Kim Dae-jung's influence increased from 4.48 in 2007 to 4.87 in 2009, and his trustworthiness also saw a significant rise from 3.96 in 2007 to 4.74 points in 2009. The rise of former Minister Yoo Si-min is even more striking. In the 2007 survey, he ranked last among all eleven individuals surveyed, with influence and trust scores of 2.16 points each. However, in the current survey, although he ranked ninth in influence, his score increased by a substantial 1.63 points to 3.79. His trust score also reached 4.04 points, catapulting him to the position of the second most trusted leader after the 'Big Three.' This surge appears to be a result of former Minister Yoo Si-min's emergence as a representative of the pro-Roh faction amidst the favorable sentiment towards former President Roh Moo-hyun following his death.

[Figure 2] Changes in Influence and Trust Scores of Kim Dae-jung, Yoo Si-min, and Chung Dong-young After the Change of Administration

Who Represents Each Region, Generation, and Ideological Group?

Although the era of the 'Three Kims' politics, based on regionalism, has ended, regions remain a significant asset for politicians. Identifying which political forces or figures have specific political bases, and conversely, who represents specific regions and demographics, are key variables for understanding conflict structures surrounding power and predicting the direction of political realignment. Since the 2000s, specific leaders have exercised political leadership by leveraging particular generations and ideological groups as their political bases. Former President Roh Moo-hyun, for instance, based his political foundation on the younger generation (ages 20-30) and progressives, while current President Lee Myung-bak employed electoral tactics to win by mobilizing the existing Grand National Party support base along with voters in their 40s and the Seoul metropolitan area.

Amidst growing interest in the intra-party factional conflicts between pro-Lee and pro-Park factions within the ruling party, the possibility of a Grand National-Liberty Forward coalition, and the cautiously discussed potential for political realignment within the opposition following the death of former President Roh Moo-hyun, attention is focusing on identifying the political leaders who represent specific regions and groups. Unlike general surveys, this study allows for an assessment of trust scores for each of the ten key politicians, enabling us to determine who is most trusted within specific regions and groups, and the relative strength of that trust.

In summary, within the conservative camp, former Representative Park Geun-hye is chosen as the most trusted leader by the majority of demographic groups and regions. Former President Kim Dae-jung, who is currently hospitalized, also receives relatively high trust across society. While there are no readily apparent trustworthy next-generation or competitive leaders to replace Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye among conservatives, progressives and others show high trust in former President Kim Dae-jung, followed by former Minister Yoo Si-min after the period of mourning for Roh Moo-hyun. In contrast, figures such as the National Assembly Speaker, Grand National Party leader Park Hee-tae, and Supreme Council member Chung Mong-joon received a lukewarm response from the public.

Most Trusted Leaders Representing Each Ideological Camp

Progressive camp: Kim Dae-jung > Yoo Si-min > Park Geun-hye

Centrist and conservative strata: Park Geun-hye as representative leader

Park Geun-hye and former President Kim Dae-jung are consistently ranked high across all ideological spectrums, receiving broad trust. Within the progressive camp, Yoo Si-min is highly trusted, following former President Kim Dae-jung. Former Minister Yoo Si-min also ranked fourth among centrists, indicating a considerable breadth of trust, but his ninth-place ranking among conservatives suggests a potential for rejection from this group in the future. National Assembly Speaker Kim Hyeong-o and Grand National Party leader Park Hee-tae, who spearheaded the media legislation, received the lowest evaluations from progressive and centrist voters. Even among conservatives, Kim Hyeong-o ranked sixth and Park Hee-tae seventh, placing them in the lower-middle tier.

Leaders Trusted in Each Region

Not a single region ranked President Lee Myung-bak first in trustworthiness. Park Geun-hye received the highest trust, except in the Honam and Gangwon/Jeju regions. Former President Kim Dae-jung, besides receiving overwhelming support in Honam, garnered consistent support across all regions, forming the basis of his influence in current politics. Former Minister Yoo Si-min did not receive strong support in Daegu/Gyeongbuk, his focus region. Instead, he received relatively high trust in the Honam and Daejeon/Chungcheong regions.

Seoul Metropolitan Area: Park Geun-hye > Kim Dae-jung > Lee Myung-bak > Yoo Si-min

Daejeon/Chungcheong: Park Geun-hye > Kim Dae-jung > Yoo Si-min > Chung Sye-kyun; Lee Hoi-chang Ranked 5th in Chungcheong Region

Honam: Kim Dae-jung > Yoo Si-min and Chung Sye-kyun Competing for 2nd Place, 3rd Place; Park Geun-hye Ranked 5th

TK/PK: Park Geun-hye and Lee Myung-bak Lead; Lee Hoi-chang and Kim Dae-jung Rank 3rd and 4th

Gangwon/Jeju: Kim Dae-jung > Chung Sye-kyun, Yoo Si-min

Leaders Most Trusted by Each Generation

Younger generations show strong trust in Kim Dae-jung; those aged 40 and above show strong trust in Park Geun-hye.

However, it is noteworthy that Representative Park Geun-hye ranked second and third among the 20s and 30s age groups, respectively, indicating her presence in the top ranks even among younger demographics. Former President Kim Dae-jung ranked first and second among the 20s and 30s, second to Representative Park Geun-hye among the 40s, and fourth among those aged 50 and above, maintaining relatively broad trust across generations. While former Minister Yoo Si-min maintained high rankings among the 20s and 30s, he did not break into the top four among the 40s and 50s and above. In contrast, current Democratic Party leader Chung Sye-kyun lagged slightly behind Yoo Si-min among the 20s and 30s but led among the 40s and 50s and above. However, excluding Representative Park Geun-hye, no other Grand National Party candidate ranked high across all age groups, suggesting Park Geun-hye's dominance within the party is expected. Former Prime Minister Lee Hoi-chang and Supreme Council member Chung Mong-joon, who ranked in the lower-middle tier, only appeared in third and fourth place, respectively, among those aged 50 and above, who tend to support the Grand National Party; they remained in the lower-middle tier among other age groups.

[Appendix] Trust and Influence Scores and Rankings, 2007-2009