[Public Opinion Brief 54-2] Climate Change Issues: Beware the Lake Wobegon Effect

[Public Opinion Brief 54] National Responses to Climate Change Are Insufficient; High Priority Must Be Given

1. Global Public Opinion Demands More Active Government Response to Climate Change

2. Climate Change Issues: Beware the Lake Wobegon Effect

The Lake Wobegon effect, the belief that one is superior to others.

Appears highly among Chinese, Koreans, and Americans, increasing the possibility of a normative public opinion쏠림 (쏠림: tendency to lean or flock to one side).

Koreans and people worldwide assign high priority to climate change issues. Governments need to strive to respond more actively to climate change and environmental issues emphasized by the majority of their citizens. However, there are underlying problems within this public opinion. Unlike political and economic issues where differences in interests are clearly revealed, for issues like environmental problems, respondents tend to provide socially desirable answers. In such cases, the 'Lake Wobegon effect,' where people believe they hold more desirable perceptions than the average person, often appears in public opinion. The problem with the Lake Wobegon effect in interpreting survey results is that, firstly, individuals may provide socially desirable answers instead of their honest stance on an issue as a way to express their superiority. In this scenario, public opinion may appear to lean towards a specific, desirable stance, leading to a misinterpretation of high levels of social consensus. That is, even if an overwhelming majority of public opinion emphasizes climate change issues, if the Lake Wobegon effect is involved, the level of consensus in public opinion may decrease in concrete matters involving actual interests, and considerable disagreement and conflict may arise. Furthermore, it can make it difficult for members to adjust opinions and compromise due to the devaluation of others' opinions and blind faith in one's own thoughts.

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When asked how others think about the priority of climate change policies, many respondents indicated that others do not consider it as important as they do. Globally, 42% of respondents believed they prioritized climate change policies more than the average person. Only 28% thought others perceived it at a similar level. Furthermore, only 19% believed that others prioritized climate change policies more than they did. Steven Kull, a professor at the University of Maryland, commented, "Clearly, people have distorted perceptions of each other in that they report considering climate change policies more important than the average person."

In Korea, a significant 75% of respondents indicated that they assign a stronger policy priority to climate change than the average, suggesting, along with China (77%), a relatively high occurrence of the Lake Wobegon effect in the public opinion of these countries. The United States (52%) and Germany (52%) also show a strong tendency towards blind superiority and devaluation of other opinions. When the Lake Wobegon effect occurs, it often manifests as an excessive tendency towards a desirable stance on a particular issue, exceeding actual levels. This can distort public opinion or ignore actual differences in perception, thereby hindering more objective problem recognition and consensus-building processes for policies.

[Figure 1] Lake Wobegon Effect (%) Among All Respondents

In reality, climate change and environmental issues are difficult for anyone to oppose on a normative level. However, when environmental issues conflict with national or individual interests in the realm of real politics and economics, problems arise that are difficult to resolve normatively. Conflicts of interest between developed countries seeking to curb carbon emissions from developing countries for greenhouse gas reduction and developing countries focused on economic growth rather than environmental regulations are frequently witnessed in the international community. Until the emergence of the Obama administration, which intended to exert U.S. leadership in global environmental issues, the U.S. had refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, which the majority of the international community agreed upon. At an individual level, it is not easy for residents in green belt areas to readily forgo development profits.

Ultimately, the Lake Wobegon effect, based on the belief that one's own thoughts are and should be superior to average thinking, in matters that are concrete and complexly intertwined with interests, can hinder concrete discussions and deliberations for the compromise and adjustment of real interests. Furthermore, rather than interpreting the overwhelming support currently observed as absolute, it is crucial to consider that public opinion conflicts and clashes may arise at any time during the concrete policy-making process.

[Figure 2] Difference Between Self-Assessed Government Policy Priority and Perceived Priority by Average Citizens: Lake Wobegon Effect (Unit: Score)

* This represents the difference between the score assigned by the respondent for increasing the priority of government policies and the score they estimate average citizens would assign to the priority of government policies. A (+) indicates the respondent perceives themselves as prioritizing climate policy more than the average citizen. 0 means they perceive it as the same, and (-) means they perceive average citizens as prioritizing it more than themselves.