[Briefing on Public Opinion No. 15-6] Should the pro-government camp unite? If so, how?

[Briefing on Public Opinion No. 15] Grand National Party Primary and Voter Support Fluctuation

1] Analysis of Voter Presidential Candidate Support Fluctuation and Support Base Fluctuation - Jeong Han-wool

2] Tracking Unseen Public Sentiment Changes Through Panel Surveys 1 - Kim Sung-tae

3] Tracking Unseen Public Sentiment Changes Through Panel Surveys 2 - Lee Hyun-woo

4] Once a Progressive, Always a Progressive? Once a Conservative, Always a Conservative? - Jeong Han-wool

5] The Grand National Party Primary, and After? - Kwon Hyuk-yong

6] Should the pro-government camp unite? If so, how? - Seo Hyun-jin

7] Evaluation of the Grand National Party's Candidate Verification Activities - Lim Seong-hak

6. Should the pro-government camp unite? If so, how?

Seo Hyun-jin (Professor, Department of Social Education, Sungshin Women's University)

□ 40.2% agree with the assertion that the pro-government camp must unite to prevent the Grand National Party from taking power; 47.3% disagree.

□ If united, 15.2% exclude Roh's confidants, 37.8% form an anti-Grand National Party coalition, 40.3% form a policy-line coalition.

Since the first panel survey, the possibility of unification of the pro-government camp has been consistently raised, but it has not yet materialized. The approval ratings of the two Grand National Party candidates, Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye, remain dominant, while the combined approval ratings of the pro-government candidates are less than 20%. Consequently, the argument for the necessity of unifying the pro-government camp is steadily gaining traction.

In this second survey, to gauge public opinion on the necessity of unifying the pro-government camp, we directly asked, "What do you think about the assertion that the pro-government camp must unite to prevent the Grand National Party from taking power in the presidential election?" This was not a prediction of the possibility of unification, but a survey of the degree of agreement on the necessity of unification.

The survey results showed that 40.2% agreed with the assertion that unification is necessary, a difference of only about 7% from the 47.3% who disagreed. Although the pro-government camp currently lacks a strong candidate and the possibility of unification is difficult to predict, a considerable portion of public opinion supports forming an anti-Grand National Party coalition.

Specifically, the voter groups for whom the proportion agreeing with the unification of the pro-government camp was higher than those who did not are as follows. First, in terms of party and candidate support, these are supporters of the United Democratic Party, Uri Party, and Democratic Party, and supporters of Sohn Hak-kyu and Chung Dong-young. Furthermore, those who supported Roh Moo-hyun in the 2002 presidential election, those who positively evaluated the current Roh Moo-hyun administration's governance, those from the Gwangju/Jeolla region or currently living there, and those who are ideologically progressive are the groups with a higher proportion agreeing with the necessity of unifying the pro-government camp.

Voters who responded that candidate Lee Myung-bak's governance capabilities and ethical standards were very insufficient, and voters who stated that they prioritized policies or pledges when choosing a candidate, also showed a higher proportion agreeing with the necessity of unifying the pro-government camp compared to those who did not. Voters who answered that the priority task for the next government is inter-Korean relations, and voters who believed the impact of the inter-Korean summit would be positive, also showed a higher proportion agreeing with the unification of the pro-government camp.

These results indicate that supporters of the pro-government camp's unification are largely those with anti-Grand National Party sentiment, those who prioritize policies or pledges over the capabilities and ethical standards or electability of their party or candidate, and those who prioritize inter-Korean peace issues over economic issues. This suggests that if an anti-Grand National Party pro-government unification occurs, there is ample room to secure these individuals as a support base.

Voters who agreed with the necessity of unifying the pro-government camp viewed the future possibilities of forming a new unified party or merging with the Uri Party very positively. They also predicted that the presidential election would be a close contest if a single candidate were selected. However, the problem is that even if the pro-government camp unifies, there is no candidate among the current pro-government candidates who has strong support when it comes to selecting a single candidate.

Furthermore, among respondents who answered that unification is necessary, we asked how unification would be desirable: 'Unification should occur among those with similar policy lines' (40.3%) and 'All forces other than the Grand National Party should be included' (37.8%) appeared similarly. Interestingly, supporters of the United Democratic Party and the Democratic Party showed a higher preference for an anti-Grand National Party coalition than a policy-line coalition by 11.3% and 16.7% respectively, whereas Uri Party supporters showed a 1.3% higher preference for a policy-line coalition. In terms of candidate support, supporters of candidate Sohn Hak-kyu showed a 11% higher preference for an anti-Grand National Party coalition, while supporters of candidate Chung Dong-young showed a 7.4% higher preference for a policy-line coalition.

In other words, based solely on current public opinion, which lacks a strong focal point and consensus among supporters regarding the method of unification, it appears likely that voters will defect to support the Grand National Party during the candidate selection process even if the pro-government camp unifies, and the cohesive effect of unification will be weak.

[Figure 1] Preferred Method of Grand Unification by Pro-Government Party Support (%)

[Table 1] Agreement on Pro-Government Camp Unification

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Note : Les valeurs représentent la différence en %. + signifie plus de personnes sont d'accord, - signifie plus de personnes ne sont pas d'accord.

(Très d'accord + D'accord) - (Pas d'accord + Pas du tout d'accord)