[Public Opinion Briefing No. 15-6] Should the Pro-Government Camp Unite? If So, How?

[Public Opinion Briefing No. 15] Grand National Party Primary and Voter Support Shifts

[1] Analysis of Voter Presidential Candidate Support Shifts and Support Base Changes - Jeong Han-wool

[2] Tracking Unseen Public Sentiment Changes Through Panel Surveys 1 - Kim Sung-tae

[3] Tracking Unseen Public Sentiment Changes Through Panel Surveys 2 - Lee Hyun-woo

[4] Once Progressive, Always Progressive? Once Conservative, Always Conservative? - Jeong Han-wool

[5] The Grand National Party Primary, and After? - Kwon Hyuk-yong

[6] Should the Pro-Government Camp Unite? If So, How? - Seo Hyun-jin

[7] Evaluation of the Grand National Party's Candidate Verification Activities - Lim Seong-hak

6. Should the Pro-Government Camp Unite? If So, How?

Seo Hyun-jin (Professor, Department of Social Education, Sungshin Women's University)

□ 40.2% agree with the assertion that the pro-government camp must unite to prevent the Grand National Party from taking power; 47.3% disagree.

□ If unification occurs, 15.2% favor excluding Roh's close associates, 37.8% favor an anti-Grand National Party coalition, and 40.3% favor a policy-line coalition.

Since the first panel survey, the possibility of unification within the pro-government camp has been consistently raised but has not yet materialized. The approval ratings of the two Grand National Party candidates, Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye, remain dominant, while the combined approval ratings of the pro-government candidates are as low as less than 20%. Consequently, arguments for the necessity of pro-government camp unification are steadily gaining traction.

This second survey directly asked about public opinion on the necessity of pro-government camp unification by posing the question: "What do you think about the assertion that the pro-government camp should unite to prevent the Grand National Party from winning the presidential election?" The survey investigated the degree of agreement with the necessity of unification, rather than predicting the possibility of unification.

The survey results showed that 40.2% agreed with the assertion that unification is necessary, a difference of only about 7% from the 47.3% who disagreed. Although the pro-government camp currently lacks a prominent candidate and the possibility of unification is difficult to predict, a considerable portion of the public supports the formation of an anti-Grand National Party coalition.

Specifically, the voter groups for whom the proportion agreeing with pro-government camp unification was higher than those who did not are as follows: First, in terms of party and candidate support, these include supporters of the United Democratic Party, Uri Party, and Democratic Party, as well as supporters of Sohn Hak-kyu and Chung Dong-young. Furthermore, those who supported Roh Moo-hyun in the 2002 presidential election, those who positively evaluated the current Roh Moo-hyun administration's governance, those from the Gwangju/Jeolla region or currently residing there, and those who identify as progressive are the demographics with a higher proportion agreeing with the necessity of pro-government camp unification.

Voters who responded that candidate Lee Myung-bak's governance capabilities and ethical standards were very insufficient, and voters who stated that they prioritized policy or platform when choosing a candidate, also showed a higher proportion agreeing with the necessity of pro-government camp unification compared to those who did not. Voters who indicated that inter-Korean relations should be the priority task for the next administration, and voters who believed the inter-Korean summit would have a positive impact, also showed a higher proportion agreeing with pro-government camp unification.

These results indicate that supporters of pro-government camp unification largely belong to demographics with anti-Grand National Party sentiment, those who prioritize policy or platform over the capabilities, ethical standards, or electability of their party or candidate, and those who prioritize inter-Korean peace issues over economic issues. This suggests that if an anti-Grand National Party pro-government camp unification occurs, there is ample room to secure these individuals as a support base.

Voters who agreed with the necessity of pro-government camp unification viewed the future prospects of forming a unified new party or merging the Uri Party with a new party very positively. They also predicted that the presidential election would be a close contest if a single candidate were selected. However, the problem lies in the fact that even if the pro-government camp unites, there is no current pro-government candidate who commands strong support for the selection of a single candidate.

Furthermore, among respondents who stated that unification is necessary, when asked how unification would be desirable, 'unification among those with similar policy lines' (40.3%) and 'inclusion of all forces other than the Grand National Party' (37.8%) emerged as similarly favored options. Interestingly, supporters of the United Democratic Party and the Democratic Party showed a higher preference for an anti-Grand National Party coalition by 11.3% and 16.7% respectively, compared to a policy-line coalition. In contrast, Uri Party supporters showed a slightly higher preference for a policy-line coalition by 1.3%. Regarding candidate support, supporters of candidate Sohn Hak-kyu showed a higher preference for an anti-Grand National Party coalition by 11%, while supporters of candidate Chung Dong-young showed a higher preference for a policy-line coalition by 7.4%.

In other words, given the current public opinion landscape, which lacks a strong central figure and consensus among supporters regarding the method of unification, it appears likely that voters may defect to the Grand National Party during the candidate selection process even if the pro-government camp unites, resulting in weak cohesive effects of unification.

[Figure 1] Preferred Method of Grand Unification by Pro-Government Party Support (%)

[Table 1] Agreement on Pro-Government Camp Unification

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Note: Values indicate % difference. + means more agree, - means more disagree.

(Strongly Agree + Agree) - (Disagree + Strongly Disagree)