[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 17, No. 4] Moon Kook-hyun's Potential and Dilemma

[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 17] "Will the 17th Presidential Election Again Come Down to a 2% Battle?"

Topic 1. Candidate Lee Myung-bak's High Polls and the Explosive Potential of the BBK Variable - Kang Won-taek

Topic 2. Candidate Lee Myung-bak's Issue Strategy - Park Chan-wook

Topic 3. Can the Unification of Pro-Government Candidates Change the Presidential Election Landscape? - Lee Na-young, Jeong Han-wool

Topic 4. Candidate Moon Kook-hyun's Dilemma - Kim Sung-tae

Topic 5. The Impact of President Roh's Governance Leadership on the Presidential Election - Seo Hyun-jin

"Moon Kook-hyun's Dilemma: Only One in Four Respondents Aware of Him"

Kim Sung-tae (Professor, Department of Media and Communication, Korea University)

This third survey included an assessment of the support, ethical standing, and governance capabilities of candidate Moon Kook-hyun, who has recently emerged as a dark horse in the unification of pro-government candidates. In terms of support, he recorded 7.2%, higher than candidates Lee In-je and Kwon Young-gil who each garnered 2.3%, but a significant gap remains with candidates Lee Myung-bak (54.2%) and Chung Dong-young (15.3%).

Meanwhile, regarding candidate recognition, the proportion of respondents who answered they "know him very well" or "know him somewhat" for candidate Moon was a low 22.5% compared to candidates Lee Myung-bak (91.6%), Chung Dong-young (80.5%), Lee In-je (74.2%), and Kwon Young-gil (48.1%). In other words, it is about one-fourth of that for candidates Lee Myung-bak and Chung Dong-young. In this regard, his third-place ranking in support despite very low recognition compared to other candidates appears highly unusual.

In terms of ethical standing (out of 10 points) related to presidential qualifications, candidate Moon received the best evaluation with 5.8 points, along with candidate Kwon Young-gil, compared to candidates Chung Dong-young (5.4), Lee Myung-bak (5.1), and Lee In-je (4.6), who went through a primary process rife with mutual accusations. However, candidate Moon's governance capability evaluation was 4.4, somewhat lower than candidates Lee Myung-bak (6.7), Chung Dong-young (5.3), and Lee In-je (4.8). This appears to reflect skepticism regarding the governance capabilities of politicians with a CEO background.

As the election day approaches and discussions on the unification of pro-government candidates intensify, candidate Moon's recognition is expected to rise. How this change will affect the presidential election dynamics remains uncertain. However, based on several panel surveys, the following cautious projections can be made.

First, in all three surveys conducted so far, the proportion of respondents who answered that candidate's capability and experience are important criteria for selecting a president has consistently exceeded 50%. On the other hand, the proportion of respondents who stated that ethical standing is most important decreased from 19.4% in the first survey and 17% in the second survey to the 12% range in this third survey. This suggests that candidate Moon, who receives a relatively weaker evaluation in terms of governance capability compared to ethical standing, will face increasing difficulties as election day draws nearer.

Second, the magnitude of change in supporting candidates is gradually decreasing. For candidate Lee Myung-bak, 78.5% of those who supported him in the first survey and 84.2% in the second survey continued to support him in the third survey. Similarly, 60% from the first survey and 80.3% from the second survey of those who supported candidate Chung Dong-young did not change their preferred candidate in the third survey. This indicates that the frequency of changing supporting candidates has been decreasing recently. This is a fact that candidate Moon, currently polling around 7%, cannot overlook. (p4 [Data])

Third, a closer examination of candidate Moon Kook-hyun's support base through this survey revealed that 22.5% of the support base for former Gyeonggi Governor Sohn Hak-kyu switched to candidate Moon. In contrast, only 2.4% and 7.6% of the support bases for candidates Lee Myung-bak and Chung Dong-young, respectively, switched their support to candidate Moon. Furthermore, an analysis of undecided voters who responded that they had no preferred candidate in the second survey showed that while 7.8% newly supported candidate Moon, candidates Lee Myung-bak and Chung Dong-young saw inflow rates of 21.9% and 21.3%, respectively.

Meanwhile, for candidates Moon and Chung, the proportion of supporters with strong support intensity ("very strongly support" or "strongly support") was 69.7% and 56.6%, respectively, compared to 50.6% for candidate Moon. This is also a result worth considering when forecasting the future election landscape.

[Figure 1] Presidential Candidate Recognition

[Figure 2] Presidential Candidate Support Rate (%)

[Table 1] Changes in Candidate Decision Factors

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[Figure 3] Evaluation of Candidate Attributes (10-point scale)

Morality: Below 0-5: Immoral, 5: Neutral, Above 5-10 points: Moral

Ideology Evaluation: Below 0-5: Progressive, 5: Moderate, Above 5-10 points: Conservative

Governing Competence: Below 0-5: Insufficient, 5: Neutral, Above 5-10 points: Sufficient

[Figure 4] Candidate Support Strength by Candidate Supporter: Very Strong + Strong Support (%)