[Public Opinion Briefing No. 19-5] How Does the Economy Influence Voting?

[Issue Briefing No. 19] D-7, Final Comprehensive Check of the Presidential Election Landscape

[1] Tracking Changes in Lee Myung-bak's Support Base: Hardcore Supporters + Bandwagon Effect - Kang Won-taek

[2] Remaining Points of Interest in the Presidential Election: Who Will Take Second Place? - Lee Na-young

[3] Voter Turnout Differences Do Not Change Support Distribution - Lee Hyun-woo

[4] Political Alliance 'Fails', Pro-Government Camp's Morality Offensive 'Fails' - Kwon Hyuk-yong

[5] The 17th Presidential Election is an Economic Election! - Jeong Han-wool

The 17th Presidential Election is an Economic Election!

Jeong Han-wool (Deputy Director, EAI Public Opinion Analysis Center)

It is difficult to find a precedent in past elections where the 'economy' issue has so strongly influenced voters' candidate choices as in the current election. In the panel survey, when asked about the top national governance tasks for the next government, respondents consistently chose resolving issues of polarization and economic growth, which are related to the economy, as the top priority, accounting for over half of the responses.

1. The Economic Election in Terms of Issue Structure

□ Top National Governance Task: Economic Polarization + Economic Growth Exceed Half

Respondents who selected political reform, the biggest issue in the 2002 election, were around 6-8%.

□ The Dichotomy of Polarization Issues = Welfare-ism and Economic Growth = Growth-ism is Broken

What is noteworthy is that while it is true that public opinion prioritizing the economy has spread with the expansion of the economic crisis narrative, when asked to differentiate between the issues of economic polarization and growth, voters are assigning greater priority to the issue of polarization. However, if both of these are considered economic issues, it can be seen that an overwhelming priority is being given to economic issues.

Here, it is necessary to distinguish between the concepts of framing effect and priming effect, which are used to analyze the media's influence on elections. In fact, some experts suggest interpretations such as the growth frame overwhelming the security or political reform frames, which can lead to confusion in terminology.

The framing effect relates to the way an issue is presented. For example, when approaching the same issue of the "Assembly and Demonstration Act," there can be an approach from the perspective of "freedom of assembly and demonstration" and an approach from the perspective of "inconvenience caused to those not participating in the assembly." A framing effect occurs when the media or political forces intensely highlight one of these perspectives.

However, the phenomenon where a specific issue gains weight among various issues and emerges as a central issue is related to the priming effect. The phenomenon in this election where economic issues overshadow other issues can be seen as an influence of agenda setting or the priming effect. On the other hand, when approaching economic issues, if a specific logic is highlighted among the logic of polarization and the logic of growth, it can be explained by the framing effect. Therefore, the assertion that the growth frame dominates in Korea is inconsistent with reality, given the responses from voters who prioritize the issue of polarization.

[Table 1] Top National Governance Tasks for the Next Government

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□ Lee Myung-bak Candidate Also Leads in the Polarization Frame

Crucially, unlike in the past, voters are not significantly influenced by the dichotomous thinking of polarization=welfarism vs. economic growth=growthism. Previously, it was generally assessed that the progressive/reformist camp benefited when the welfare/polarization frame was highlighted, while the conservative camp benefited when the growth frame was highlighted.

However, this election confirms that such dichotomous distinctions have been significantly weakened. Of course, when asked to identify the candidate who would best address economic growth as the government's top priority, 67.9% chose candidate Lee Myung-bak. However, even in terms of alleviating polarization, candidate Lee Myung-bak led with 37.7%, followed by candidate Moon Kook-hyun at 16.3%, candidate Lee Hoi-chang at 15.9%, and candidate Chung Dong-young at only 12.5%. As long as there is a priming effect on economic issues, Lee Myung-bak is in a superior position regardless of the economic frame.

Analyzing the current issue structure, it appears that candidate Chung Dong-young would have been more effective if a priming effect had occurred on the issue of improving inter-Korean relations, and candidate Lee Hoi-chang if it had occurred on national security issues.

[Table 2] Candidate Best Suited for Each Task (4th Survey, %)

2. Economic Election from the Perspective of Voting Behavior

□ Household Economic Conditions Relatively Favorable, Dissatisfaction with National Economy Deepens

□ Economic Formula: Economic Dissatisfaction + Blame Government = Support for Lee Myung-bak

The phenomenon of dissatisfaction with the Roh Moo-hyun administration in the 17th presidential election leading to support for the Grand National Party and candidate Lee Myung-bak is often explained from the perspective of retrospective voting. That is, the logic is that voters make their choices based on 'rewarding or punishing the economic performance of the current ruling party.' In response, the Blue House and the ruling party seem displeased, citing that macroeconomic indicators are not bad. However, what directly influences voters' choices is not macroeconomic indicators but how individuals perceive them.

In the 5th survey, when asked about satisfaction with household economic conditions and the state of the Korean economy, the general response was lukewarm, with many answering 'so-so.' While satisfaction with household economic conditions was higher at a 6:4 ratio, dissatisfaction with the Korean economy was more than five times higher than satisfaction. Ultimately, the perception of the current national economic situation, more than the perception of household economics, can be seen as having a greater impact on the evaluation of the current government and presidential voting choices.

[Figure 1] Satisfaction with the Korean Economy and Household Economy

□ Those Satisfied with the National Economy Support Chung Dong-young at 35.1%, Lee Myung-bak at 26.2%

□ Those Dissatisfied Support Chung Dong-young at 11.0%, Lee Myung-bak at 52.5%

Indeed, among those satisfied with the national economy, candidate Chung Dong-young led candidate Lee Myung-bak with 35.1%. Conversely, among those dissatisfied with the national economy, support for candidate Lee Myung-bak exceeded the average support rate at 52.5%. This result demonstrates that economic perceptions influence voters' voting choices.

[Table 3] Voting Tendency by Perception of National Economy

□ Economic Voting: Key is Who is Held Responsible for Economic Improvement or Deterioration

□ Economic Improvement Attributed to Individuals/Businesses; Deterioration Blamed on Government/Politicians

Those satisfied with the national economy attribute its causes to the roles of businesses or individuals, while those dissatisfied place the responsibility on the government (57.7%) or politicians (31.7%). Regarding household economics, while 72% of those satisfied responded that the government had no influence, 89.6% of those dissatisfied stated it was due to government influence. This implies that the more clearly the responsibility for the deterioration of the national or household economy is recognized, and the more people attribute that responsibility to the government, the higher the tendency for retrospective voting, holding the government and ruling party candidates accountable.

[Table 4] Who is to Blame for the National Economy?

[Table 5] Government's Influence on Household Economy