[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 19-4] Political Alliances Are Ineffective; Pro-Government Camp's Morality Offensive Is Ineffective

[Issue Briefing Vol. 19] D-7: Final Comprehensive Review of the Presidential Election Landscape

[1] Tracking Changes in Lee Myung-bak's Support Base: Hardcore Supporters + Bandwagon Effect - Kang Won-taek

[2] Remaining Points of Interest in the Presidential Election: Who Will Come in Second? - Lee Na-young

[3] Differences in Voter Turnout Do Not Change Support Distribution - Lee Hyun-woo

[4] Political Alliances Are Ineffective; Pro-Government Camp's Morality Offensive Is Ineffective - Kwon Hyuk-yong

[5] The 17th Presidential Election Is an Economic Election! - Jeong Han-wool

4. Political Alliances Are Ineffective; Pro-Government Camp's Morality Offensive Is Ineffective

Kwon Hyuk-yong (Professor of Political Science and International Relations, Korea University)

□ Consecutive Endorsements by Politicians Have Little EffectThe fifth panel survey reveals two changes compared to previous presidential elections. First, political alliances formed for the acquisition of power have had little effect. Recent endorsements of Lee Myung-bak by Representative Chung Mong-joon and by Kim Jong-pil, as well as former Chungnam Governor Shim Dae-pyung's endorsement of candidate Lee Hoi-chang, have had virtually no impact on the outward expansion of their support bases.



Following the endorsement of candidate Lee Myung-bak by Representative Chung Mong-joon and former Prime Minister Kim Jong-pil, only 14% of all respondents indicated they felt more favorably towards candidate Lee Myung-bak. 62.7% responded that it had no significant impact, and 18% stated they felt less favorably towards candidate Lee than before. Notably, in the Chungcheong region, the negative impact of JP's endorsement of Lee Myung-bak was 21%, higher than the national average. By age group, 18.2% of those in their 50s and 34% of those in their 60s, by region, 17.2% of respondents in Daegu/Gyeongbuk, and among Grand National Party supporters, 25.2%, and among Lee Myung-bak supporters, 24.8% responded that they felt more favorably towards candidate Lee Myung-bak due to the Chung Mong-joon-JP endorsement.



Similarly, 75.7% of respondents indicated that former Governor Shim Dae-pyung's endorsement of candidate Lee Hoi-chang had no impact on their evaluation of candidate Lee Hoi-chang. Those who felt more favorably towards candidate Lee Hoi-chang accounted for 7.7%, while those who felt less favorably accounted for 10.3%. The Shim Dae-pyung-Lee Hoi-chang alliance showed no impact even in the Chungcheong region, with 9.1% reporting a positive impact, 10.7% a negative impact, and 77.4% reporting virtually no impact. The effect of the Shim Dae-pyung-Lee Hoi-chang alliance was only marginally observed among the elderly and supporters of candidate Lee Hoi-chang. In past presidential elections, pre-election political alliances led to an expansion of the support base and ultimately to electoral victory. In this presidential election, the effect of political alliances appears to have been limited to strengthening the cohesion of the core support base.



□ "Morality" as a Candidate Selection Criterion Has Decreased, Justifying Voters' Candidate ChoicesSecond, compared to previous presidential elections where morality and novelty were considered key candidate selection criteria, the issue of morality has not served as an effective campaign to undermine the support base of opposing candidates. While 51.5% of all respondents indicated they would vote based on a candidate's ability and experience, only 18.6% cited morality as a selection criterion.



Specifically, among Lee Myung-bak's supporters, the proportion who responded that ability and experience were the selection criteria was an overwhelming 68.5%, while morality accounted for only 1.5%. Interestingly, the proportion of those who cited morality as a selection criterion has continued to decrease among Lee Myung-bak's supporters. Only among supporters of the United Democratic Party did respondents cite a candidate's morality as the primary selection criterion; for supporters of other parties, the most common response was prioritizing a candidate's experience and ability. This trend does not necessarily mean that voters no longer consider morality an important virtue for politicians. It can be argued that the preference for a capable president influenced candidate selection, and voters have subsequently justified their candidate choices to align with their pre-existing preferences.

[Table 3] Changes in Selection Criteria Among Lee Myung-bak Supporters (%)

[Table 4] Changes in Candidate Selection Criteria Among All Respondents (%)