[EAI Public Opinion Brief 44-4] 62.7% Say Korea Should Possess Nuclear Weapons

Security Perceptions and Public Opinion on Nuclear Weapons Possession Following North Korea's Rocket Launch



ㆍNorth Korea's rocket launch has minimal impact on perceptions of the security situation

ㆍ32.8% perceive the security situation on the Korean Peninsula as unstable, only a 3.4 percentage point increase from March

ㆍ62.7% believe Korea should possess nuclear weapons, a 12% point increase from 2005



Following North Korea's rocket launch on April 5th, the South Korean government appears to be preoccupied with devising countermeasures. The primary focus seems to be on full participation in the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) and enhancing missile defense capabilities (MD). Claims for extending missile range have also emerged. Contrary to the government's and media's busy responses, the public's perception of the security situation remained relatively calm after North Korea's rocket launch. Only 32.8% (6.3% very unstable, 26.5% somewhat unstable) responded that the current overall security situation is unstable, a mere 2.7 percentage point (P) higher than the 30.1% who responded it is not unstable. 36.4% responded it is normal, and 0.8% were unsure/did not respond.



Compared to the results of the Public Opinion Barometer survey conducted in March, there was a slight increase in responses indicating instability, but it cannot be considered a significant change. In the March survey, 29.4% responded that the 'security situation is unstable,' while 34.4% responded it is not unstable. 35.6% responded neutrally as 'normal,' and 0.6% were 'unsure/did not respond.' In the April survey, the 'unstable' response rate increased by only 3.4% points, while the 'not unstable' response rate decreased by 4.3% points. Consequently, despite the significant North Korean risk posed by the rocket launch, the public remained calm. [Figure 1]



To examine the public's perception of the overall security situation more specifically, an analysis was conducted based on gender, age, region of residence, and ideological orientation. Firstly, women expressed higher levels of anxiety compared to men. Among women, 35.1% responded that the situation is unstable, while 26.7% responded it is not unstable. 'Normal' and 'unsure/did not respond' were 37.3% and 0.9%, respectively. In contrast, among men, 30.4% responded it is unstable, and 33.5% responded it is not unstable. 'Normal' and 'unsure/did not respond' were 35.5% and 0.7%, respectively. [Figure 2]



By age group, the 19-29 age bracket showed the highest proportion of responses indicating instability, while those aged 50 and above showed the lowest. Looking solely at the 'unstable' responses, the rate was 38.9% for the 19-29 age group. It was 32.9% for those in their 30s and 34.2% for those in their 40s. However, only 28.0% of those aged 50 and above responded that the situation is unstable. The proportion of 'not unstable' responses was inversely related to the 'unstable' responses. For the 19-29 age group, the 'not unstable' response rate was 22.0%. For those in their 30s, it was 28.3%, and for those in their 40s, it was 31.2%. However, those aged 50 and above showed the highest response rate at 35.2%. [Figure 3]



By region of residence, respondents in the Gwangju/Jeolla region exhibited the highest level of security anxiety. Conversely, respondents in the Gangwon/Jeju and Daegu/Gyeongbuk regions showed the lowest levels of security anxiety. A more detailed breakdown reveals that the Gwangju/Jeolla region had a 42.1% response rate for 'unstable.' Seoul was 35.3%, Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam was 33.0%, and Gangwon/Jeju and Daegu/Gyeongbuk were 31.5%. Incheon/Gyeonggi was 29.6%, and the Daecheon/Chungcheong region had the lowest rate at 27.7%. For the 'not unstable' responses, Gangwon/Jeju had the highest rate at 38.6%. This was followed by Daegu/Gyeongbuk at 37.3%, then Incheon/Gyeonggi (32.6%), Daejeon/Chungcheong (30.5%), Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam (29.6%), and Seoul (26.8%). In contrast, only 19.6% of respondents in the Gwangju/Jeolla region answered that the situation is not unstable. [Figure 4]



Comparing security anxiety by ideological orientation, among respondents who identified as progressive, 34.4% responded 'unstable' and 27.6% responded 'not unstable.' The remainder were neutral or unsure. Among those who identified as moderate, 30.9% responded 'unstable,' and 27.6% responded 'not unstable.' In contrast, among those who identified as conservative, 32.9% responded 'unstable,' showing no significant difference from progressives and moderates, but the 'not unstable' response rate was relatively high at 36.6% compared to other groups. While conservatives and older individuals tend to prefer firm responses to North Korea's nuclear and rocket issues and international sanctions, progressives and younger generations, who are wary of international sanctions and pressure, showed relatively greater concern. [Figure 5]

[Figure 1] Comparison of Security Situation Perceptions in March and April (Unit: %, excluding 'Normal' and 'Unsure/Did not respond')

[Figure 2] Comparison of Security Situation Perceptions by Gender (Unit: %)

[Figure 3] Perception of "Unstable" Security Situation by Age Group (Unit: %)

[Figure 4] Comparison of Security Situation Perceptions by Region (Unit: %, excluding 'Unsure/Did not respond')

[Figure 5] Comparison of Security Situation Perceptions by Ideological Orientation (Unit: %, excluding 'Unsure/Did not respond')

North Korea's Rocket Launch Fuels Public Opinion for Nuclear Competition

ㆍ62.7% believe South Korea should possess nuclear weapons, a 12.0 percentage point increase since 2005

ㆍSupport for nuclear weapon possession increases even among those who perceive the security situation as 'not unstable'



Amidst the South Korean government's lack of visible results in its response to North Korea's rocket launch, the argument for South Korea to possess nuclear weapons is resurfacing, particularly on internet websites. The public also appears to view this favorably. 62.7% agreed with the assertion that South Korea should possess nuclear weapons. The proportion of respondents who disagreed was 35.4%. 'Unsure/Did not respond' accounted for 1.8%.

This survey result differs from the public opinion poll jointly conducted by the East Asia Institute (EAI), JoongAng Ilbo, and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs (CCFR) in 2004 when the North Korean nuclear issue began to emerge. In the 2004 survey, 50.7% responded that 'South Korea should possess nuclear weapons,' while 49.3% responded 'should not possess.' Five years later, the agreement rate for the argument that South Korea should possess nuclear weapons has increased by 12.0 percentage points. [Figure 6]



Notably, the argument for possessing nuclear weapons does not stem solely from security concerns. Among those who responded that the security situation is unstable, 62.6% agreed with possessing nuclear weapons. However, among those who responded that the situation is not unstable, the agreement rate was 68.8%, which is 6.2 percentage points higher than among those who found it unstable. The proportion of those who disagreed with possessing nuclear weapons was 35.5% among those who perceived the security situation as unstable, and 29.6% among those who did not perceive it as unstable, a difference of 5.9 percentage points. Consequently, the argument for South Korea to possess nuclear weapons is being made regardless of the assessment of the current security situation. [Figure 7]



An analysis was conducted on the characteristics of respondents who agreed with the assertion that South Korea should possess nuclear weapons. By gender, men showed a higher agreement rate of 70.9% compared to women at 54.8%, a difference of 16.1 percentage points. By age group, 45.8% in the 19-29 age bracket and 60.4% in their 30s agreed. The agreement rate further increased in the 40s and 50s and above, with 69.9% and 69.6%, respectively, agreeing with the argument for nuclear weapon possession. By ideological orientation, 66.5% of those who identified as conservative agreed with the argument for nuclear weapon possession. For moderates, the rate was 62.5%. Even among those who identified as progressive, the agreement rate was 59.4%, representing a majority. Excluding young women, a majority of the South Korean public generally agrees with South Korea possessing nuclear weapons.



The South Korean government is currently busy responding to North Korea's nuclear issue and post-rocket launch security concerns in cooperation with the international community, including the UN. The issue is that numerous matters, such as joining PSI, establishing an MD system, and extending the range of missiles deployed in Korea through consultations with the United States, are present, which could heighten tensions and trigger an arms race in the East Asian region and inter-Korean relations. As feared, North Korea's rocket launch is serving as a catalyst for an arms expansion and nuclear competition not only in South Korea but also in neighboring countries. The results of this public opinion poll support the concern that South Korean public opinion also reflects this trend. While these public sentiments may not constitute a realistic pressure for the government to immediately pursue nuclear weapon development or arms expansion, they could undoubtedly pose a significant burden to the South Korean government in certain circumstances.



[Figure 6] Public Opinion Support for Nuclear Weapon Possession in South Korea (Unit: %)

* 2004 data: EAI, JoongAng Ilbo, CCFR

** For the 2004 survey, the response options were "Yes" and "No."

*** Excluding 'Unsure/Did not respond'



[Figure 7] Comparison of Security Perceptions and Support for Nuclear Weapon Possession (Unit: %, excluding 'Unsure/Did not respond')