Opinion Briefing 18-1: Strange Election, How Should We Interpret It?

Opinion Briefing 18: "Analysis of Support Bases for the 1 Strong, 2 Moderate Candidates and Presidential Election Outlook Ahead of the Main Election"

[1] Strange Election, The Voting Choices of Hardcore Opposition Supporters - Kim Minjeon

[2] A Competition for Second Place No Less Intense Than for First - Lee Hyunwoo

[3] [Addendum] The 17th Presidential Election Viewed Through the Ideological Landscape, Presidential Election Outlook Through the 4th Survey - Jeong Han-wool

1. Strange Election, How Should We Interpret It?

Kim Minjeon (Professor, Department of General Education, Kyung Hee University)

The phrase 'strange election' is circulating in political circles. This is because phenomena unseen in past presidential elections are occurring one after another. While politicians created a fog of uncertainty until the candidate registration deadline, making it unclear who would run in the main election, voters are also showing patterns different from the past, as if to deliver a decisive blow to the politicians. The biggest change is that public opinion, which used to boil over easily like a thin pot, is not heating up no matter how much fuel is added. Perhaps because of this, changes in candidate approval ratings are also rarely seen.



Why? We can find the answer in the past four panel surveys. Through the past four surveys, it was found that there were 952 (39.9%) out of a total of 2,382 respondents who were hardcore opposition supporters and had never changed their support for an opposition candidate, and 17.1% of respondents deviated from supporting the opposition only once. In contrast, respondents who have never supported the opposition, including the undecided, accounted for 14.4% of the total. Even more surprising is that 803 respondents, or 80.8% of those who answered they supported Lee Myung-bak in the fourth survey, were respondents who had consistently supported a Grand National Party candidate in the past four surveys. Furthermore, 544 of these individuals consistently supported Lee Myung-bak in all four surveys. In contrast, fewer than 50 supporters of Lee Myung-bak had supported a Grand National Party candidate two times or less. Meanwhile, 149 respondents chose a Grand National Party candidate in the 1st-3rd surveys and also chose Lee Hoi-chang.

<Figure 1> Frequency of Opposition Candidate Support

[Figure 2] Composition of Lee Myung-bak's Support

What are the characteristics of the hardcore opposition support base? ?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /

1. Party Support Remains Important



Although diagnoses suggest that parties have disappeared in the 2007 presidential election and only individuals remain, and politicians have disregarded parties and repeatedly formed and dissolved alliances, voters are revealed to be using parties as a criterion for selection.



Of the respondents who stated they support the Grand National Party, 69% supported opposition candidates in all four surveys, and 18.6% supported opposition candidates in three surveys. In contrast, among those who stated they support the Grand National Party, there were no supporters who had never supported opposition candidates or remained undecided.



While the loyalty of Grand National Party supporters to opposition candidates is high, 20% of supporters of the United New Democratic Party supported Grand National Party candidates three or more times. The United New Democratic Party has a small support base and low loyalty. In this survey, the Grand National Party's approval rating was 4.7%, and the United New Democratic Party's approval rating was 14.1%.

<Figure 3> Party Support and Opposition Candidate Support

2. Strong Desire for Change of Government



Another characteristic of the hardcore opposition support base is a strong desire for a change of government. Among hardcore respondents who supported opposition candidates in all four surveys, 80% agreed with the need for a change of government, whereas among respondents who never supported the opposition, 70% disagreed with a change of government. Meanwhile, 59.0% agreed with the assertion that a change of government should occur, and 34.8% disagreed.

<Figure 4> Change of Government and Opposition Support

3. There are Hardcore Opposition Supporters Among Progressives Too



Among respondents who supported opposition candidates in all four surveys, there are more who identify as conservative or moderate. However, approximately 30% of those who identify as progressive also support opposition candidates. This is because ideological divisions are not significantly apparent in this election.

<Figure 5> Support for Opposition Candidates in All Four Surveys and Ideology

4. There are Many Hardcore Opposition Supporters in Daegu and Gyeongbuk, and Seoul



Looking at respondents who supported opposition candidates in all four surveys, they are concentrated in Seoul and the Daegu-Gyeongbuk region. This confirms that Seoul is not a swing region, unlike in past elections.

<Figure 6> Support for Opposition Candidates in All Four Surveys and Region

As such, since approximately 40% of all respondents are hardcore supporters who have consistently supported opposition candidates, it is unlikely that the support structure between the opposition and the opposition will change easily. Furthermore, since 80% of respondents supporting Lee Myung-bak are voters who have consistently supported Grand National Party candidates over the past four surveys, they are unlikely to be swayed by minor variables. However, if the BBK allegations are proven true, 24.7% of Lee Myung-bak's supporters stated they would withdraw their support, compared to 59.6% who stated they would continue to support him. Therefore, the direction of the prosecution's investigation announcement must be closely watched.



* Voter interests and voter issue positions are changing.



In this election, the policy areas that voters consider most important are employment policy (24.1%), real estate policy (21.0%), and education policy (18.1%). In contrast, the importance of North Korea policy (5.2%) and relations with the United States (2.4%), which were major issues in the 2002 presidential election, is not significant. This indicates that voters' interests are shifting towards practical life issues. This explains why statements like 'the housing bubble is scarier than a nuclear bomb' were heard when the North Korean nuclear test occurred, and why the ruling party is not benefiting from the inter-Korean summit. This suggests that even if sensitive issues like foreign policy are turned into populist election issues, it may only create constraints in implementing foreign policy after taking office and may not contribute to actual vote acquisition. Therefore, candidates are likely to gain more votes by developing policies related to the livelihoods of the people, which are important to the public.

<Figure 7> Policy Areas Considered Important in the Presidential Election