[Arctic Security Dialogue] III. Russia's Arctic Strategy and the Challenges of Korean-Style Arctic Security

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A8ah1_6w11o

Introduction to the Arctic Security Dialogue Series

The East Asia Institute is launching an interview series on the Arctic, an area of growing importance. Climate change has opened up new Arctic shipping routes, and the Arctic has become a theater of competition for various major powers in terms of economy, resources, environmental protection, and military security. We will invite experts to discuss various aspects of the Arctic, including what kind of Arctic strategy South Korea should pursue and what preparations we need to make.

The Geopolitical Rise of the Arctic and Hegemonic Competition

Jeon Jae-sung, Director of EAI

I would like to ask the first question. We are discussing the Arctic. Russia is arguably the most important actor in the Arctic. Has the era of Russia arrived in this age of increasing Arctic importance? In this geopolitical landscape, the US and Russia are entering a competitive dynamic. What are the differences in geopolitical interests between the US and Russia in this situation? Will Russia be the biggest beneficiary in the Arctic era, or will other countries benefit more? We would like to hear your thoughts on this.

Jeong Jae-ho, Research Fellow

While the Arctic was once a realm of the unknown, exploration, and pioneering, it has now become an arena where competition and cooperation for national interests, as well as security aspects, have intensified. In other words, I fear it may degenerate into an Arctic of conflict and mistrust. There are various descriptors associated with the Arctic: "Living in the Arctic Era," "From US-China Hegemonic Competition to US-Russia Hegemonic Competition," "The Arctic Enters a New Cold War," "From the Indo-Pacific to the Arctic Region," "From the Strait of Hormuz to the Bering Strait." Arctic sovereign states are announcing Arctic strategies as survival strategies to avoid falling behind in this seismic shift of competition. Thus, if the 21st century is characterized by US-China hegemonic competition, what kind of hegemonic competition will unfold in the future? I believe the Arctic may become an arena for US-Russia hegemonic competition. In other words, the Arctic region will demand US-Russia hegemonic competition, and the future world order is expected to see intensified maritime security competition between Russia and NATO countries centered around the Arctic.

Russia's Arctic Strategy

Jeon Jae-sung, Director of EAI

Yes, Dr. Jeong Jae-ho is a scholar who deeply researches not only the content of Russia's Arctic strategy but also the background from which it emerged. Therefore, I would like to ask again about Russia's Arctic strategy in this Arctic era.

Jeong Jae-ho, Research Fellow

First, to briefly explain the difference between the US and Russian Arctic strategies, while the US has a strategy document prepared for the Arctic era, Russia is analyzing the results of the implementation phase for practicing the Arctic era. They have established a plan called the 2035 National Security Strategy, which is divided into three five-year phases. This indicates that Russia has formulated a practical Arctic strategy. The first Arctic Strategy was implemented in 2014, and out of a total of 18 items, 6 have already been realized, with another 6 expected to be completed by 2026. The most crucial aspect of the Arctic is "which country gains the most benefit?"

From this perspective, considering the areas of territorial waters, resources, security, and shipping routes, Russia occupies 7,000 kilometers of the total length of the Arctic coastline from west to east. In terms of resources, Russia holds 20% and 75% of the total reserves of crude oil and natural gas, respectively, and accounts for 18% and 83% of Russia's total production. Regarding rare earths alone, Russia accounts for 76% of the total reserves. In the security domain, Russia is planning to build eight nuclear icebreakers. By the time the third phase of the Arctic strategy is completed, eight nuclear icebreakers will be deployed, dividing the east and west. Specifically, the Northern Fleet in Murmansk has the Northern Joint Strategic Command, which is responsible for the overall security of the Arctic region. The same applies to shipping routes. Russia's control over the Northern Sea Route, a key route connecting Europe and Asia, is of considerable significance. Who will benefit from this in the future? It is a fact that Russia currently occupies all aspects of the Arctic strategy, security, resources, shipping routes, and territorial waters that are unfolding.

South Korea's Arctic Security Strategy from a Diplomatic and Security Perspective

Jeon Jae-sung, Director of EAI

Yes, we have discussed the importance of the Arctic in terms of economic security, maritime transport routes, climate change, and environmental protection. In particular, the point that the Arctic is important from a diplomatic and security perspective seems very significant. In that context, what is the concept of Arctic security, and how can we establish it? And regarding Korean-style Arctic security, since we are also planning to expand our presence in the Arctic, we would like to ask if our Arctic security strategy is feasible from a security perspective.

Jeong Jae-ho, Research Fellow

Arctic security is extremely important, and all nations are currently interested in securing their interests in the Arctic. Notably, on June 12, 2024, Russia established the National Maritime Information Policy Directorate as an independent subordinate agency under the Presidential Administration by presidential decree. It has established three consultative bodies: first, the Naval Strategy Development Council; second, the Council for the Protection of National Interests in the Arctic; and third, the Council for Russian Maritime Activities and Guarantees. These consultative bodies are practically implementing the goals for securing Arctic interests. This signifies that what Russia considers the Arctic is a strategy for survival, for existence.

Therefore, it is crucial to consider from which aspects we should view the Arctic from a security perspective. First, there are military and non-military security concepts. Military security concepts include the construction of military bases in Arctic coastal and island regions, long-term Arctic navigation training, strategic bomber flights over the North Pole, intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch training, and command participation exercises simulating a virtual enemy in the Arctic islands. While these are all military domains, non-military security aspects cannot be excluded. For example, oil spills due to the grounding or collision of large vessels and LNG or natural gas carriers, and maritime accidents involving multiple ships requiring rescue operations for vessels and personnel. These are included as non-military factors. In fact, when the MV Oryongho ran aground in the Sea of Okhotsk in 2014, the Coast Guard dispatched the 5001 Coast Guard vessel and a South Korean naval vessel to provide assistance. Therefore, we must pay considerable attention to non-military factors and prepare for Korean-style Arctic security with interest in all security aspects, both military and non-military.

Jeon Jae-sung, Director of EAI

Today, we invited Dr. Jeong Jae-ho from the Institute for Global Studies at Seoul National University to learn about Russia's Arctic strategy. Dr. Jeong Jae-ho, who has conducted extensive research and has practical experience in Russia, explained the national strategy and historical background behind Russia's Arctic strategy. He particularly emphasized that the Arctic strategy is crucial not only for economic and environmental reasons but also from a military security perspective. He also organized the concepts of maritime security in the Arctic, Arctic security, and the Arctic security concept that South Korea should pursue, which will be of great help in establishing our future strategies. Thank you.■

■ Moderator: Jeon Jae-sung_Director of EAI; Professor at Seoul National University.

■ Interviewee: Jeong Jae-ho_Research Fellow at the Seoul National University Institute for Global Studies.

■ Production and Editing: Lim Jae-hyun_Research Fellow at EAI

    Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 209) | jhlim@eai.or.kr

Video Transcript

Arctic Geopolitical Changes and US-Russia Hegemonic Competition

I would like to ask my first question. I believe Russia is the most important actor in the Arctic. Therefore, in this era where the Arctic is becoming increasingly important, has Russia's era arrived? In the geopolitical landscape, the US and Russia are entering a competitive dynamic. In this situation, what are the differences in geopolitical understanding between the US and Russia? Will Russia be the biggest beneficiary in the Arctic era, or will other countries benefit more? I will elaborate on this. In terms of past US-China global exploration, China's focus was on competition and cooperation for the nation, with a stronger emphasis on security. In other words, it might degenerate into conflict and distrust in the North. There are various descriptors related to the Arctic.

We are living in the Arctic era. From US-China hegemonic competition to US-Russia hegemonic competition, the establishment of a new Cold War in the Arctic. From the Indo-Pacific region to the Arctic region, from Hormuz to the Bering Sea. Arctic rim countries are adopting a two-pole strategy as a survival strategy to keep pace with these tectonic shifts. So, if the 21st century is characterized by US-China hegemonic competition, what kind of hegemonic competition will unfold in the future? I believe the Arctic will become an arena for US-Russia hegemonic competition. In other words, the Arctic region will be the stage for US-Russia hegemonic competition, and the future world order is expected to see a deepening of maritime security competition between Russia and NATO countries centered around the Arctic. Dr. Jeong Jae-ho, having researched and worked in Russia, is someone who has deeply studied not only the content of Russia's Arctic strategy but also the background from which it emerged. Therefore, I would like to ask again about Russia's Arctic strategy in the Arctic era.

Russia's Phased Arctic Strategy and Implementation

First, to briefly explain the differences in Arctic strategies between the US and Russia, while the US has developed a strategy document for preparing for the Arctic era, Russia is analyzing the results of its implementation phase for practicing the Arctic strategy. Russia has a National Security Strategy for 2035, which is divided into five-year periods. This also shows that Russia is establishing a practical Arctic strategy. The first phase of Russia's Arctic strategy was implemented in 2024, with six out of eighteen items already executed, and another six items are expected to be completed by 2026.

The most important aspect of the Arctic is which country reaps the greatest benefits. From this perspective, considering territorial waters, resources, security, and navigation routes, Russia occupies 7,000 km of the total northern coastline, both west and east. In terms of resources, oil, and natural gas, Russia holds 20% and 75% of its total reserves, and 7% and 83% of its total production, respectively. Even for helium, Russia accounts for 76% of the total reserves. In the security domain, Russia is planning to build eight icebreakers. By the time the third phase of the Arctic strategy is completed, eight nuclear-powered icebreakers will be deployed, dividing the eastern and western sectors.

Specifically, the Northern Fleet in Murmansk has the Joint Strategic Command North, which is responsible for the overall security of the Arctic region. The same applies to navigation. Russia's control over the Northern Sea Route, a key passage connecting Europe and Asia, holds significant meaning. Who will reap the benefits in the future? It is a fact that Russia currently dominates in all areas: the ongoing Arctic strategy, security, resources, navigation routes, and territorial waters.

The Concept of Arctic Security and Korean-Style Arctic Security

There has been much discussion about the Arctic's importance in terms of economic security, maritime transport routes, climate change, and environmental protection. However, the emphasis on the Arctic's importance from a diplomatic and security perspective seems particularly crucial. In this context, what exactly is the concept of Arctic security, and how can we establish it? And what about Korean-style Arctic security? As we are planning to expand our presence in the Arctic, is it possible to have our own Arctic security strategy from a security standpoint? I would like to inquire about this.

The Arctic is highly important, and currently, all nations are showing interest in securing benefits from it. Notably, on June 12, 2024, Russia established the National Maritime Information Policy Directorate as an independent subordinate agency under the Presidential Administration. Below this directorate, three councils were established: the Council for the Development of Naval Strategy, the Council for the Protection of National Interests in the Arctic, and the Council for Ensuring Russia's Maritime Activities. They are coordinating and implementing their initiatives with specific objectives to secure their interests. This indicates that Russia views the Arctic as essential for its survival. Therefore, it is crucial to consider the Arctic from a security perspective. This involves military and non-military security concepts.

An Integrated Approach to Military and Non-Military Arctic Security

Military security concepts include the construction of military bases in Arctic maritime and island regions, long-term Arctic navigation training, strategic bomber flights over the North Pole, intercontinental ballistic missile launch drills, and command and staff exercises simulating virtual enemy attacks on Arctic islands. While these fall under military security, non-military security cannot be overlooked. Representative examples include oil spills due to the grounding and collision of large vessels and LNG carriers, and maritime accidents involving multiple ships, leading to situations requiring rescue of vessels and personnel. These are included as non-military factors.

Indeed, when the Oryongho ran aground in 2014, the Coast Guard dispatched a 5,000-ton vessel, and the Republic of Korea Navy also sent a vessel to provide support. This demonstrates that we must pay considerable attention to non-military factors and prepare for Korean-style Arctic security from all security perspectives. Today, we heard from Dr. Jeong Jae-ho of the Seoul National University Institute for Global Studies about Russia's Arctic strategy. Dr. Jeong, having conducted extensive research and gained practical experience in Russia, explained the national strategy and historical background behind Russia's Arctic strategy. He particularly highlighted the significance of the Arctic strategy not only for economic security but also for military security. He also summarized the concepts of Arctic maritime security and Arctic security, as well as the Arctic security concept that South Korea should pursue, which will be greatly helpful in formulating our future strategies. Thank you.