[Global NK Commentary] Gyeongju APEC, South Korea's Nuclear-Powered Submarines, and North Korea's Complex Inner Thoughts

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Since the establishment of the Republic of Korea government in 1948, South Korea has traditionally excelled in bilateral diplomacy, primarily with the United States and Japan. Around 1990, the world changed, and the international order saw the collapse of the Cold War structure. In short, the necessity of multilateral diplomacy, as well as existing bilateral diplomacy, became acutely felt. Nevertheless, considering that the ROK-US alliance is the most crucial security asset for a divided nation, multilateral forums dealing with security issues were burdensome in many ways. Ultimately, APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation), which accounts for 40% of the world's population and 60% of global GDP, was a very attractive stage. South Korea has actively participated in APEC activities since its founding in 1989, pooling its wisdom with countries like Australia, the United States, Canada, and Japan.

The key issue is how to effectively consolidate the fruits of South Korea's diplomacy, unveiled at the 2025 APEC Summit in Gyeongju, going forward. When a major multilateral diplomatic forum is convened, it is customary in the international arena for various bilateral diplomatic activities to unfold intensely before and after. President Lee Jae-myung is reported to have held a total of 13 bilateral summit meetings during the APEC period. Among these, the ROK-US summit, the second since the launch of the current administration, and the ROK-China summit with President Xi Jinping, who visited South Korea for the first time in 11 years, hold particular significance. While it is difficult to summarize the achievements and limitations in a single statement, it is no exaggeration to say that the stable establishment of ROK-US-China relations is the most critical factor for the fate of the Korean Peninsula from the perspective of South Korea's national interest. These ROK-US and ROK-China summits have presented important diplomatic agendas for the Korean Peninsula issue, and North Korea's inner thoughts, observing these developments, are presumed to be very complex.

First, President Lee Jae-myung and President Trump agreed in their second summit meeting since last August to secure nuclear-powered submarines for South Korea. President Lee Jae-myung publicly requested the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines from President Trump during the meeting, and President Trump gave his final approval shortly thereafter. Initially, President Trump's approval seemed to be predicated on construction at a shipyard located in Philadelphia, USA, but due to various practical difficulties, both the ROK and US governments are reportedly now in agreement for construction to take place in South Korea. At the time, President Lee Jae-myung clearly stated in front of the South Korean public and media, "The submerged endurance of diesel submarines is limited, making it difficult to track North Korean or Chinese submarines." This was a statement that China and North Korea could have easily protested publicly, but the Chinese government, the following day, issued a brief statement expressing hope for the maintenance of the NPT regime in the Northeast Asian region, thus appearing to preempt potential diplomatic friction.

The issue lies in North Korea's complex position and calculations. North Korea has not yet made any statement regarding this matter, and it is presumed that it will be difficult for them to find logical grounds to publicly criticize the South Korean government. China is a country whose nuclear possession is recognized within the NPT framework, but North Korea's case is one where it has succeeded in developing nuclear weapons by violating the rules of the NPT regime and repeatedly deceiving the international community for the past 30-odd years. While the South Korean government's attempt to acquire nuclear-powered submarines implies the military use of nuclear fuel, thus requiring an amendment to the ROK-US Atomic Energy Agreement, it is still premised on the deployment of conventional weapons and therefore does not violate the obligations of the NPT regime. However, successful operation of the submarines requires a stable supply of nuclear fuel, and there is a possibility that our government may request indigenous fuel production from the United States in this process, leaving a delicate negotiation process between the ROK and the US in the future. North Korea, fully aware of this series of events, must be seriously contemplating the possibility of losing its exclusive position in asymmetric weaponry, which it has maintained through nuclear weapons, as nuclear-powered submarines clearly represent a highly symbolic asymmetric force in a narrow operational area like the Korean Peninsula.

Second, the ROK-China summit also appears to have presented significant strategic considerations for North Korea. President Xi Jinping appeared alongside Chairman Kim Jong-un at Tiananmen Square during the Victory Day celebrations in early September. Furthermore, the trilateral meeting of the North Korean, Chinese, and Russian leaders, along with Russian President Putin, would have led North Korea to believe it had secured a considerably significant diplomatic and security space. However, less than two months later, President Xi Jinping visited South Korea for the first time in 11 years, and during the ROK-China summit, both countries pledged cooperation in future fields for peace and prosperity, not only between the two nations but also for the international community, including AI. Despite the complex and subtle interests at play between North Korea and China, China has been a strong pillar supporting North Korea's resilience against international economic sanctions. Notably, during the period of ROK-US summit diplomacy in 2018, the leaders of North Korea and China met five times in a year and a half, deeply confirming their strategic cooperation. From North Korea's perspective, it had to observe the successful hosting of the ROK-China summit at a time when it believed trilateral cooperation between North Korea, China, and Russia was more solid than ever before.

Third, a US-China summit was also held at the Gyeongju APEC meeting. This situation is also presumed to have been very uncomfortable for North Korea. This is because the roles of the United States and China are extremely important for the ultimate resolution of the Korean Peninsula issue, including unification. Busan is located at the easternmost end of the Eurasian continent and simultaneously at the westernmost end of the Pacific Ocean. The meeting of the continental giant, China's leader, and the Pacific giant, America's leader, here seemed to symbolize the fate of South Korea, caught between these two superpowers. However, the US-China summit held in Busan also demonstrated South Korea's superior position relative to North Korea for the resolution of the Korean Peninsula issue. While a US-China summit in Pyongyang is theoretically possible, it is realistically unimaginable, at least for the time being. To reiterate, it is no exaggeration to say that almost all of South Korea's national interests, including the North Korean issue, depend on successful ROK-US-China relations.

Since the advent of modernity, all nations have set two goals: economic development and political development. The same applies to us; despite having only human resources, we have achieved successful economic growth and political development, representing over 50 Asian nations. Given that over 80% of South Korea's GDP is generated through trade, the maintenance of the liberal international order is extremely important from South Korea's perspective. In this regard, the achievements of the South Korean government through this Gyeongju APEC appear to be considerable. Ultimately, accurately analyzing North Korea's strategic calculations and pursuing successful diplomatic policies linked to this are key. After all, diplomacy is an extension of domestic affairs, so this is a moment when national wisdom for the post-APEC era is even more desperately needed. ■

■ Lee Hwa-young_Dean of the Graduate School of International Studies, Ewha Womans University.

■ Responsible Editor: Lee Sang-jun_EAI Research Fellow

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