Reading the Times and Caring for People

Since initiating the project "Conditions for Presidential Success" in 2002, the East Asia Institute (EAI) has explored institutionalization strategies for the desirable roles, powers, and responsibilities of presidents in a democracy through subsequent projects: "Conditions for Successful Presidential Transition" (2007) and "Conditions for Presidential Success in 2013" (2012), conducted every five years. To mark the presidential election year of 2017, EAI invited Byun Yang-kyu, former Chief Policy Secretary to the President (currently Chairman of Optis and Smilegate Investment), on April 11, 2016, to hold the fourth round table discussion on "Conditions for Presidential Success in 2018."

Reading the Times

The first condition for a president is to clearly recognize our current position. Looking back at past presidents, it can be assessed that they largely fulfilled their duties in accordance with the circumstances of their times. President Park Chung-hee led our nation's modernization and economic development. President Chun Doo-hwan, considering the overall situation including the economy at the time, focused on openness, particularly promoting economic liberalization. President Roh Tae-woo, despite the rigid inter-Korean relations, read the post-Cold War international climate and pursued Northern Diplomacy. President Kim Young-sam, championing the values of a civilian government, worked to eradicate military intervention in politics and resolve issues of illegal political funding. President Kim Dae-jung prioritized overcoming the IMF crisis and actively invested in building information infrastructure, such as fiber optic cables for the information age, laying the foundation for South Korea's current status as a global internet powerhouse. A president can succeed when they possess the leadership to read the flow of the times, consider the given circumstances, and make policy judgments and decisions.

Starting around 1997, for about 15 years, South Korea has been unable to expect the trickle-down effect. That is, when the trickle-down effect refers to the economic flow where the performance and profits of large corporations trickle down to small and medium-sized enterprises, leading to an increase in overall national income, it is true that Korea has been unable to expect such an effect for the past 15 years. Despite knowing this, the current reality is that we still only think in terms of the trickle-down effect. The logic that the money of the wealthy will flow downwards, or that the wealth of large corporations will lift up small and medium-sized enterprises, has not been working in reality for over 15 years.

As another example, the population aged 45 to 50, which was 980,000 during South Korea's economic development period, is projected to reach its peak at 4.36 million in two years. The period of life when people consume the most, meaning when the most money is spent, is between the ages of 45 and 50. This demographic group represents a significant population with purchasing power. However, after 2018, this number will rapidly decline, and signs of this are already appearing. This signifies a severe contraction in the consumption sector in terms of growth and economic management.

While there is no way to predict the future with absolute certainty, examining demographic structures allows for some degree of prediction. Therefore, considering these demographic conditions, we must accurately recognize the limitations of existing policies.

We must create a low-cost society for the population aged 45 to 50, whose consumption is rapidly declining. Policies should focus on enabling citizens to lead their lives with minimal expenses, for example, by reducing the costs of leisure or education. Thus, the president needs the vision to accurately read the times.

A Specialized President, Not an All-Purpose President

It takes an average of three years from policy announcement and drafting to implementation. It takes three years from the government's announcement of intent to the actual groundbreaking. Considering this, a five-year term is insufficient to accomplish anything. Therefore, the president must be aware of their aspirations and perceived mission for the era, and when an opportunity arises, prioritize and focus on achieving one or two of the most crucial goals.

In economics, there is an explanation based on a correspondence between a father and son regarding why Nepal is poor. The son, after a brief stay in Nepal, observed that the Nepalese people were exceptionally talented, for instance, in repairing roofs, compared to Americans. He questioned his father why, despite such talent, Nepalis were poor. Through correspondence with his father, the son realized that the very characteristic of the Nepalese people—their broad range of skills—was the fundamental reason for Nepal's economic backwardness. It is important to concentrate on one area and develop expertise, as this creates exchange value in other matters. If one person attempts to do everything alone, trade and exchange value do not emerge. Similarly, a president cannot and should not attempt to do everything alone.

Trust and Loyalty

The third condition a president must possess is to value people. In politics, people are often treated as disposable. However, the process of becoming president requires the help of many individuals, and those around the president should not be viewed as disposable. Ultimately, trust and loyalty are essential. While organized crime groups also emphasize trust and loyalty, they lack justice. Trust and loyalty based on the realization of political justice are different. When people know that a political leader is a person of trust and loyalty, their staff will work with utmost sincerity. Conversely, if a leader lacks loyalty, those around them will only focus on self-preservation, unsure of when they might be discarded.

The promulgation statement of Hunminjeongeum states, "King Sejong personally created and promulgated it." It is impossible for him to have created it alone. If so, why is Hunminjeongeum recorded solely as King Sejong's independent creation? Considering the circumstances of the time, we can infer considerations for relations with China and deference to his officials. Given the relationship between China and Joseon at the time, the creation of Hangul by Joseon could have been interpreted as a challenge to the policy of serving China (Sadae주의). Even if it were explained that Hangul was created to better read Chinese characters, China would undoubtedly have been wary of Joseon possessing its own unique script. Therefore, if all scholars involved in the creation of Hangul were identified, those officials would inevitably have been summoned to China and faced hardship. It is more plausible to assume that King Sejong did not merely boast of creating Hunminjeongeum alone, but rather, out of consideration for his officials, recorded only his own name. Thus, cherishing those around him and maintaining trust are among the highest virtues a president's leadership should embody.

Common Misconception 1: Managing a Nation

A common misconception is that managing a nation is similar to managing a business. In reality, it is the opposite. Individuals who are highly successful in business management are more likely to fail in governing a nation. Governing a nation, for example, in Western societies, individuals aspiring to a political career may join a party in their teens, learning how parties and politics operate, and developing into party or policy experts. Through such experience in administration and politics, they can acquire the ability and sensibility to govern a nation effectively. However, if one suddenly decides to "manage" a nation without such experience, the likelihood of failure is very high. A business's goal is to make money, but a nation's success hinges on how well it spends money. Furthermore, while businesses can lay off employees at will, a nation cannot do so arbitrarily. The logic of national governance dictates that individuals who must be dismissed should be treated with even greater care. While business management seeks consensus and makes decisions and executes them based on agreement, national governance can be described as "agree to disagree." That is, the nation must be led while fully listening to and respecting the opposing views of others. In this light, a person with exceptional strategic decision-making ability might be more suited for a position like Minister of National Defense, where such virtues are required, rather than being a successful president.

Common Misconception 2: Short-term Governance = Politics

Secondly, a president should not be fixated on short-term strategies. One significant mistake was South Korea's initial non-participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). This reflects a complete lack of understanding of history, the nature of a nation, and the conditions required for South Korea to grow into a strong middle power. It is not an exaggeration to say that South Korea should have been leading the TPP. However, concerns about potential protests from farmers or opposition groups led to the TPP issue being postponed, joining later, and adopting a follower's stance. Such actions cannot be considered sound national judgment. South Korea's failure to join the TPP could lead to another wave of corporate exodus from the country. South Korea's economy relies on trade for over 100% of its GDP, whereas Japan's trade dependence is only about 20%. Therefore, it is illogical for South Korea to join the TPP later than Japan. Even Japan, a country that can survive without exports (with exports accounting for only about 23%), opened its rice market much earlier and became a leading country in the TPP. It is wrong for a country with 100% trade dependence not to join. Short-sighted decisions made to merely manage the immediate situation cannot be considered proper governance. The nation's future direction must be set, and policies must be conceived and executed with a long-term perspective.

Common Misconception 3: Faulty Aides

Finally, while there are wrongly appointed aides, there are no wrongly performing aides. We generally tend to blame the aides. Both the general public and the media often criticize the Chief of Staff or other aides. Then, who appointed these aides? It is, of course, the president. Aides—although there may be exceptionally brilliant ones—are ultimately a component that constitutes the power of the highest authority. The closest core aides work to the best of their abilities. However, the person who appointed them must take responsibility for their capabilities and conduct. Yet, when a problem arises, we criticize the aides rather than the appointing authority. Ultimately, the aides bear responsibility for the situation and step down. This phenomenon is quite prevalent in South Korea. This can be attributed to the fact that we have not yet overcome the mindset of the monarchical era, where the king could do no wrong. There is often an expectation or assumption of having a genius aide like Zhuge Liang who can handle everything. However, in a presidential system that changes every five years, how can one possibly have an aide like Zhuge Liang? ■

Byun Yang-kyuChairman of Optis and Smilegate Investment, previously served as Director-General of the Planning and Budget Office, Vice Minister of Planning and Budget, Minister of Planning and Budget, and Chief Policy Secretary to the President.

Moderator

Lee Sook-jong, President of EAI, Professor at Sungkyunkwan University

Discussion

Kang Won-taek, Professor at Seoul National University

Kim Seok-ho, Professor at Seoul National University

Kim Jae-il, Professor at Dankook University

Kim Tae-young, Professor at Kyung Hee University

Na Tae-jun, Professor at Yonsei University

Park Won-ho, Professor at Seoul National University

Park Hyung-joon, Director of EAI Governance Center, Professor at Sungkyunkwan University

Lee Nae-young, Director of EAI Public Opinion Analysis Center, Professor at Korea University

Han Gyu-seop, Professor at Seoul National University

Han Seung-joon, Professor at Seoul Women's University

Han Jeong-hoon, Professor at Seoul National University

Bae Jin-seok, Senior Researcher at EAI

Kim Bo-mi, Research Fellow at EAI