[EAI Opinion Memo] The Importance of Social Integration Revealed in the Presidential Election Results

EAI Opinion Memo No. 13

Author

Park Won-ho, Seoul National University

Following the announcement of the election results, one of the most frequently discussed topics was the diagnosis that the most urgent task for President-elect Park Geun-hye is social integration. The 2012 Presidential Panel Survey, jointly conducted by EAI, SBS, JoongAng Ilbo, and Korea Research immediately after the presidential election, more clearly illustrates the content and direction of this social integration.

First, the most striking point is that 72.5% of the panelists stated that President-elect Park Geun-hye would do a very good job (19.1%) or a generally good job (53.5%) as president. While this appears to be a very high percentage at first glance, it is a significantly lower figure compared to the expectations and evaluations of over 86% for President Lee Myung-bak immediately after the 2007 presidential election.

The Reason for Showing Political Hope

Typically, presidents-elect receive very high expectations and support immediately after winning an election (bandwagon effect), which generally leads to a honeymoon period in the early stages of their administration. However, the 5th panel survey indicates that President-elect Park Geun-hye faces a challenging political environment.

Voters who did not support President-elect Park Geun-hye in the election do not yet show confidence in President-elect Park's state administration. Among Moon Jae-in's former supporters, less than half (47.2%) believed President-elect Park would do a good job. This is a stark contrast to the 17th presidential election (EAI 2007 Presidential Panel Survey data), where over 73% of Chung Dong-young's former supporters responded that President-elect Lee Myung-bak would do a good job. This succinctly illustrates how much political polarization has progressed over the past five years.

Of course, it is undesirable for the opposition party or its supporters to not cleanly accept the election defeat and instead wish for President-elect Park Geun-hye's failure or to aim for the reflected benefits the opposition party might gain. Maintaining such an attitude will likely offer them no political hope. However, at the same time, it must be recognized that there are a considerable number of people who are 'always ready to criticize,' and without embracing and persuading them, long-term successful state administration will be very difficult.

Considering that President Lee Myung-bak, who began his term from a much more advantageous position than President-elect Park Geun-hye, experienced a sharp decline in state approval ratings just a month and a half into his term, leading to serious setbacks in policy formulation and state administration, it appears crucial for President-elect Park to actively engage in policy discussions, including listening to opposing voices, from the outset of her term.

State Affairs to Address

When expectations for President-elect Park Geun-hye were divided into prospects for housing prices, private education costs, mitigation of economic polarization, labor-management disputes, and inter-Korean relations, voters generally predicted no significant change compared to the present. However, they expressed expectations that she would do well in resolving economic polarization (32%) and labor-management disputes (28%).

These two state affairs are also the issues with the largest perception gap between supporters of the ruling and opposition parties. It appears crucial to demonstrate President-elect Park's problem-solving capabilities in these areas, especially early in her term. Notably, resolving economic polarization is the sole issue where President-elect Park is at a relative disadvantage compared to President-elect Lee Myung-bak five years ago.■

[Table 1] Prospects for President-elect Park's State Administration (%)

[Table 2] Positive Outlook by State Affairs (%)