[EAI Opinion Review] Prospects and Limitations of Opposition Candidate Unification in the 18th Presidential Election

Joint 2nd Survey of the 2012 Presidential Election Panel by EAI, SBS, JoongAng Ilbo, and Korea Research

1. The 18th Presidential Election and Opposition Candidate Unification

The most significant variable in the 18th presidential election can be considered the success or failure of unification between opposition candidates Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo. In particular, the 2nd joint '2012 Presidential Election Panel Survey' conducted by EAI, SBS, JoongAng Ilbo, and Korea Research, with just over two months remaining until the 18th presidential election, showed Moon Jae-in gaining ground while Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo performed relatively poorly, thus highlighting once again the importance of opposition candidate unification.

Park Geun-hye's approval rating, which exceeded 40% in the 1st presidential election survey in August, slightly declined to 38.2% in the current survey. Similarly, Ahn Cheol-soo's approval rating, which was 31.2% in the 1st survey, dropped to 27.6% in the current survey, the first conducted after his official declaration of candidacy. In contrast, Moon Jae-in's approval rating, which was only 14.1% in the 1st survey in August, surged to 23.9% in the 2nd survey, rapidly narrowing the gap with Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo.

While the approval ratings of Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo are not decisively leaning towards one candidate, creating a more complex calculation for both camps regarding unification, this also underscores the importance of stabilizing the support bases of both candidates beyond mere formal unification.

The 2nd presidential election survey confirmed broad public agreement and support for unification between Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo. According to [Table 1], a majority of respondents indicated that unification between Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo is necessary. Among opposition supporters, excluding those who support Park Geun-hye, the proportion agreeing with the necessity of candidate unification soared to between the high 60s and low 80s. Conversely, the percentage of respondents who believe Ahn Cheol-soo should run independently rather than unify with Moon Jae-in was only 33.7% of all respondents, and among supporters of Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo, it was merely 12.7% and 23.9%, respectively.

[Table 1] Respondent Attitudes toward the Necessity of Candidate Unification between Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo (%)

Source: 2nd Wave of the 2012 Presidential Election Panel Survey (10.11-10.14)

Next, [Table 2] examines voter choices in a head-to-head contest against Park Geun-hye if unification between Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo were to occur. When asked whom they would vote for in a contest between Ahn Cheol-soo as the unified opposition candidate and Park Geun-hye, 50.6% of respondents chose Ahn Cheol-soo and 44.7% chose Park Geun-hye, indicating Ahn Cheol-soo would defeat Park Geun-hye. In a contest between Moon Jae-in as the unified opposition candidate and Park Geun-hye, 48.8% chose Moon Jae-in and 47.4% chose Park Geun-hye, showing Moon Jae-in narrowly leading Park Geun-hye, albeit within the margin of error.

Consequently, although Park Geun-hye leads in a multi-candidate scenario, once opposition candidate unification is achieved, the unified candidate, whether Ahn Cheol-soo or Moon Jae-in, shows an advantage over Park Geun-hye.

[Table 2] Respondent Voting Choice in a Two-Candidate Race (%)

Source: 2nd Wave of the 2012 Presidential Election Panel Survey (10.11-10.14)

In addition to the competitiveness of the unified candidate in a head-to-head contest, a more encouraging fact for the opposition is that if Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo unify, the unified candidate appears to absorb most of the opposing candidate's support base. In [Table 2], over 99% of respondents supporting Moon Jae-in or Ahn Cheol-soo would naturally vote for their preferred candidate in a head-to-head contest against Park Geun-hye. More importantly, a significant number of respondents expressed their intention to vote for the unified opposition candidate against Park Geun-hye, even if their preferred candidate was not selected as the unified candidate. Specifically, in a head-to-head contest between Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in, 74.5% of respondents who previously supported Ahn Cheol-soo stated they would vote for Moon Jae-in. Conversely, in a head-to-head contest between Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo, 78% of respondents who previously supported Moon Jae-in stated they would vote for Ahn Cheol-soo.

[Table 2] poses a very interesting question regarding the unification of Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo, a key variable in the 18th presidential election. Firstly, considerable affinity was found between the supporters of Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo. Approximately three out of four opposition voters supporting either Moon Jae-in or Ahn Cheol-soo expressed their intention to vote for the unified opposition candidate, regardless of the direction of unification, as long as unification occurs. However, simultaneously, 22-25% of Moon Jae-in or Ahn Cheol-soo supporters indicated their intention to withdraw their support in the election if their preferred candidate is not selected as the unified candidate.

Therefore, how can we distinguish between "unified candidate supporters"—voters who will vote for the unified opposition candidate regardless of the unification direction—and "specific candidate supporters"—voters who will not vote for the unified opposition candidate unless their preferred candidate is selected? In other words, what are the social and political characteristics of "specific candidate supporters" compared to voters willing to support the opposing candidate?

2. Unified Candidate Supporters vs. Specific Candidate Supporters

Here, we examined how voters who support Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo are distinguished between those who would vote for the unified opposition candidate even if it is not their preferred candidate, and those who would not vote for the unified opposition candidate unless it is their preferred candidate. First, [Table 3] shows the differences between unified candidate supporters and specific candidate supporters based on basic social and political characteristics such as age, region of residence, party affiliation, and political ideology.

[Table 3] Social and Political Differences between Supporters of a Unified Candidate and Supporters of a Specific Candidate (%)

Source: 2nd Wave of the 2012 Presidential Election Panel Survey (10.11-10.14)

Among Moon Jae-in supporters, the proportion of respondents unwilling to vote for Ahn Cheol-soo was lower than average among voters in their 40s, but higher than average among elderly voters aged 50 and above. Among Moon Jae-in supporters residing in Seoul, the proportion unwilling to vote for Ahn Cheol-soo was lower than average, while among Moon Jae-in supporters residing in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk region, this proportion was higher than average. The proportion of Moon Jae-in supporters unwilling to vote for Ahn Cheol-soo was overwhelmingly high among respondents supporting the Saenuri Party, but lower than average among those supporting the Democratic United Party or other parties. In terms of subjective ideological orientation, the proportion of progressive Moon Jae-in supporters unwilling to vote for Ahn Cheol-soo was lower than average, while it was higher than average among conservative Moon Jae-in supporters. Interestingly, among undecided voters and those with moderate ideological leanings, the proportion unwilling to vote for Ahn Cheol-soo was similar to the average.

Among Ahn Cheol-soo supporters, the proportion of respondents unwilling to vote for Moon Jae-in in a head-to-head contest was particularly high among elderly voters aged 60 and above, while it was lower than average among young voters in their 20s or respondents residing in the Honam region. Similar to Moon Jae-in supporters, among Ahn Cheol-soo supporters who identify with the Saenuri Party or are ideologically conservative, the proportion unwilling to vote for Moon Jae-in was noticeably high, and it was lower than average among those supporting opposition parties or who are ideologically progressive.

In summary, the patterns observed in [Table 3] indicate that among both Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo supporters, the proportion of "specific candidate supporters" is relatively high among voters who exhibit pro-ruling party tendencies—i.e., those who support the Saenuri Party or are ideologically conservative. This also applies to Moon Jae-in supporters residing in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk region and elderly voters aged 50 and above who support either Moon Jae-in or Ahn Cheol-soo. Of course, the number of voters with pro-ruling party tendencies who support Moon Jae-in or Ahn Cheol-soo is not large, and their proportion within the supporter base of Moon Jae-in or Ahn Cheol-soo is also not significant. However, regardless of the current number or proportion, the implications of [Table 3] are significant because these individuals are the target demographic that the unified opposition candidate must win over to defeat Park Geun-hye in the December election. That is, even if some pro-ruling party voters support Moon Jae-in or Ahn Cheol-soo, their support is currently limited to the individual candidate and has not yet extended to support for the unified opposition candidate.

For example, only 7-10% of Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo supporters identify with parties other than the Democratic United Party, and similarly, only about 20% of ideologically conservative voters are among the supporters of Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo. However, regardless of the current number of pro-ruling party voters supporting Moon Jae-in or Ahn Cheol-soo, [Table 3] offers significant insights because these are the voters the unified opposition candidate needs to persuade to win the election. In other words, even if some pro-ruling party voters support Moon Jae-in or Ahn Cheol-soo, their support is currently limited to the individual candidate and has not yet extended to support for the unified opposition candidate.

Next, [Table 4] examines how the proportion of unified candidate supporters and specific candidate supporters varies based on voters' perceptions of each candidate. The survey questions used in [Table 4] were: "Who do you feel most favorable towards among the leading presidential candidates?", "Who is the most trustworthy candidate?", and "Who do you think will best manage state affairs?" We analyzed how the ratio of unified candidate supporters to specific candidate supporters among Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo supporters differs based on the candidate chosen for each question.

[Table 4] Supporters of a Unified Candidate vs. Supporters of a Specific Candidate by Candidate Perception (%)

Source: 2nd Wave of the 2012 Presidential Election Panel Survey (10.11-10.14)

The results in [Table 4] show a similar pattern to what was observed previously. That is, respondents who rated Moon Jae-in or Ahn Cheol-soo highest in terms of favorability, trustworthiness, and state management ability were more likely to state they would support the unified opposition candidate even if their preferred candidate was not selected. Conversely, respondents who rated Park Geun-hye highly or who did not perceive any candidate as having a particular advantage in these areas indicated a willingness to withdraw their support for the unified opposition candidate if their preferred candidate was not selected. This trend was particularly pronounced among Moon Jae-in supporters compared to Ahn Cheol-soo supporters.

While [Table 3] and [Table 4] indirectly inferred voter tendencies through various socio-political characteristics, [Table 5] directly examines the ratio of unified candidate supporters to specific candidate supporters based on voter voting tendencies, as indicated by their preferred candidate in the August 1st presidential election survey. [Table 5] reveals that among voters who supported Park Geun-hye in the 1st survey but switched their support to Moon Jae-in or Ahn Cheol-soo in the 2nd survey, the proportion willing to support the unified opposition candidate even if their preferred candidate was not selected is particularly low. In contrast, among respondents who supported opposition candidates, including Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo, in the 1st survey as well, the proportion willing to support the unified opposition candidate even if their preferred candidate was not selected was overwhelmingly high.

Ultimately, [Table 5] confirms that for newly acquired voters among Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo supporters, their support for the respective candidate is high on a personal level, but their willingness to withdraw support for the unified opposition candidate if their preferred candidate is not selected is also considerably high.

[Table 5] Supporters of a Unified Candidate vs. Supporters of a Specific Candidate by 3rd Wave Candidate Support (%)

Source: 2nd Wave of the 2012 Presidential Election Panel Survey (10.11-10.14)

Finally, we examine whether the difference between unified candidate supporters and specific candidate supporters stems from differing stances on key issues related to the 18th presidential election, particularly opposition candidate unification. To this end, [Table 6] analyzes how the proportion of unified candidate supporters and specific candidate supporters varies based on agreement with the statement "If the government changes in this election, politics will improve compared to now" and views on the governance of an independent president. The argument for government change is particularly raised as the most important basis for advocating the necessity of opposition unification centered around Moon Jae-in, and attitudes towards an independent president are a core question regarding the pros and cons of Ahn Cheol-soo's presidential candidacy and governance prospects, making them key issues discussed in the context of opposition unification ahead of the 18th presidential election.

[Table 6] Supporters of a Unified Candidate vs. Supporters of a Specific Candidate by Stance on 18th Presidential Election Issues (%)

Source: 2nd Wave of the 2012 Presidential Election Panel Survey (10.11-10.14)

[Table 6] reveals that agreement with the necessity of government change is one of the main differentiating factors between unified candidate supporters and specific candidate supporters. Among respondents who agree with the necessity of government change, the proportion willing to support the unified opposition candidate even if their preferred candidate is not selected reaches a significantly high 80%, while among respondents who do not agree with the necessity of government change, this proportion barely exceeds 60%.

Ultimately, the willingness to support the unified opposition candidate, even if it is not one's preferred candidate, for the sake of government change, is a key difference between unified candidate supporters and specific candidate supporters. That is, voters who do not strongly agree with the necessity of government change, even if they currently support Moon Jae-in or Ahn Cheol-soo, may limit their support to the individual candidate. If their preferred candidate is not selected as the unified candidate through Moon Jae-in-Ahn Cheol-soo unification, they may not easily transfer their support to the opposing candidate. In contrast, attitudes towards the governance of an independent president did not significantly differentiate between unified candidate supporters and specific candidate supporters.

3. Conclusion

Although Park Geun-hye leads Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo by a significant margin in a multi-candidate scenario with only two months left until the election, the fact that the unified candidate, whether Ahn Cheol-soo or Moon Jae-in, would win against Park Geun-hye if unification occurs is clearly positive news for the opposition. Furthermore, the fact that a majority of voters—especially supporters of Moon Jae-in or Ahn Cheol-soo—agree on the necessity of unification suggests that unification is not unlikely to occur despite various practical difficulties.

However, from another perspective, the analysis in this review indicates that despite these positive prospects, there are clear limitations to the impact that Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo unification can have on the actual election at this point. To maximize the effect of unification, it is essential for the individual support bases of both candidates to merge stably without significant loss. However, 22-25% of Moon Jae-in or Ahn Cheol-soo supporters have indicated their intention to withdraw their support in the election if their preferred candidate is not selected as the unified candidate, even if unification occurs.

Moreover, and more importantly, these voters are concentrated among those who exhibit a considerable degree of pro-ruling party tendencies. In terms of securing a support base beyond traditional opposition supporters, the unified opposition candidate needs support from relatively pro-ruling party voters. The analysis in this paper suggests that the unified opposition candidate is likely to face significant difficulties in persuading these voters. Even if unification occurs, the unified opposition candidate needs support from relatively pro-ruling party voters to secure a support base that extends beyond traditional opposition supporters. The analysis in this paper indicates that the unified opposition candidate is likely to face significant difficulties in persuading these voters.

Although these voters currently support Moon Jae-in or Ahn Cheol-soo, their support, for whatever reason, is limited to the individual candidate and has not yet translated into a willingness to support even a candidate they do not prefer for the sake of government change. Therefore, it is crucial for Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo to not only expand their individual support in the remaining period until the election but also to strive to convert this acquired support into support for the entire opposition, beyond individual candidate support. ■