[EAI Opinion Review] The cognitive map of presidential frontrunners as seen through their declarations of candidacy

Content analysis and semantic network analysis of presidential candidacy declarations

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1. Why analyze candidacy declarations?

A declaration of candidacy marks the official start of a candidate's election campaign. The official declaration text is a highly condensed yet persuasive summary that justifies the candidate's run for president, presenting their values, ideology, vision, policies, and personal history to voters. In essence, it is a document that encapsulates the candidate's vision for the Republic of Korea and their campaign strategy. It serves as the first public test of each candidate's ideas and strategies. Each campaign team strives to elicit favorable responses by presenting their vision and values, sometimes directly and sometimes through various symbols and rhetoric, highlighting their strengths while minimizing their weaknesses. The candidate, along with campaign strategists and public relations experts, meticulously refines every sentence and word, considering the strategies of opposing candidates. Therefore, it is not easy for voters to discern the differences between candidates and objectively evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of their arguments without being swayed by the rhetoric, especially when examining the declarations of candidates who have ideologically and politically opposed each other. This is even more challenging when candidates belong to the same party.

Through content analysis, which identifies key issues and visions by analyzing the frequency of core keywords, and semantic network analysis, which examines the relationships between core concepts (nodes), we aim to identify the core concepts each candidate sought to emphasize in their declarations of candidacy and to elucidate the underlying differences in their perceptions through network analysis. We will thus examine the differences in the cognitive maps of Park Geun-hye of the ruling party and the so-called 'Big 3' frontrunners of the opposition (Kim Doo-kwan, Moon Jae-in, Son Hak-kyu), as well as the differences among the opposition candidates. For the analysis, we extracted words from the candidacy declarations using Professor Kang Seung-sik's KLT (Korean Language Technology) Korean morphological analyzer (Kim Doo-kwan: 847 words, Moon Jae-in: 995 words, Park Geun-hye: 539 words, Son Hak-kyu: 720 words) and selected the top 30 keywords based on frequency. For semantic relationship analysis, we coded whether these keywords appeared in the same sentence as 1 and not as 0, and constructed network graphics based on the adjacency of the top 30 keywords in each candidate's speech.

2. Overall Keyword Analysis

Moving beyond the paradigm of 'conservative = nationalism, progressive = emphasis on the common people'

Park Geun-hye emphasizes 'people' and 'individuals'; opposition candidates emphasize both 'nation' and 'people'

The content analysis results, based on keyword frequency, reveal several important characteristics. In past elections, conservative candidates tended to emphasize 'nation' and 'patriotism,' while progressive candidates emphasized people-centric terms like 'people' or 'common people.' However, Park Geun-hye, a conservative candidate, used the word 'people' as many as 56 times and 'individual' 10 times, while using 'nation' only 13 times and 'Republic of Korea' about 5 times. In contrast, opposition candidates frequently used the concept of 'nation' as much as 'people' or 'common people.' Son Hak-kyu used the word 'people' 28 times, making it the most frequent core keyword, while using 'Republic of Korea' 17 times and 'nation' only 6 times. Kim Doo-kwan used 'people' 24 times and 'common people' 13 times, while using nation-related concepts like 'nation' 30 times and 'country' 13 times. Moon Jae-in, on the other hand, used 'country' 24 times and 'nation' 17 times, while using 'people' 18 times and 'individual' 16 times. Park Geun-hye's apparent departure from this convention (?) appears to reflect a shift in governance philosophy towards prioritizing the lives and happiness of individuals over the nation. While this may reflect the growing importance of individual quality of life as a policy agenda, the strategic consideration of avoiding associations with the nationalism of the Park Chung-hee military dictatorship era also likely contributed to the restrained use of the term 'nation'.

Core messages are repeated

Park Geun-hye: 'people,' 'happiness,' 'dream'; Kim Doo-kwan: 'equality,' 'common people,' 'chaebol'

Moon Jae-in: 'jobs,' 'growth,' 'welfare'; Son Hak-kyu: 'integration,' 'livelihood,' 'community'

Furthermore, the core visions and values presented by each candidate's campaign are consistently repeated throughout their declarations, and conversely, frequently appearing concepts can be identified as the core keywords for each candidate. In Park Geun-hye's case, the components of her core slogan, “A happy Republic of Korea where every citizen's dream comes true,” are continuously repeated. Along with the 56 uses of the concept 'people,' 'happiness' was mentioned 19 times, and 'people's happiness' 14 times, totaling 33 mentions. 'Dream' also ranked high among core keywords with 15 mentions. Governor Kim Doo-kwan's slogan, “A nation that empowers me, an equal nation,” also features core concepts frequently mentioned in his declaration. 'Equality' appeared 13 times, and 'equal nation' 12 times. The concepts of 'common people' (13 times) and 'chaebol' (10 times), which represent inequality, were used as supporting concepts for the slogan. For Son Hak-kyu, the core policy messages of his slogan are also consistently repeated. Words like 'society' (14 times), 'integration' (14 times), and 'livelihood' (12 times) were frequently used. In Moon Jae-in's case, as his slogan “President of our country” is a neutral expression that does not convey policy content, concepts related to policy tasks such as 'jobs' (21 times), 'growth' (18 times), and 'welfare' (18 times) were frequently used. While Park Geun-hye's approach emphasizes the slogan and Son Hak-kyu and Kim Doo-kwan emphasize both slogan and policy, Moon Jae-in's declaration primarily highlights policy tasks.

Park Geun-hye, Moon Jae-in, and Son Hak-kyu employ a strategy of minimal differentiation; Kim Doo-kwan pursues a strategy of maximal differentiation

An analysis of the actual candidacy declarations (Table 2) reveals a prominent tendency among major candidates to pursue a strategy of 'minimal differentiation' aimed at appealing to centrist voters, rather than a strategy of 'maximal differentiation.' Although not appearing as top keywords due to lower frequency, Park Geun-hye emphasized progressive-friendly agendas such as 'economic democratization' and 'tailored welfare' as her three core tasks for people's happiness. Similarly, Moon Jae-in and Son Hak-kyu, while emphasizing 'universal welfare' and 'economic democratization,' also simultaneously proposed conservative-friendly policy tasks such as 'growth,' with Moon Jae-in presenting '4 growth strategies' and Son Hak-kyu advocating for 'progressive growth.' Only Kim Doo-kwan directly employed the traditional polarization frame of 'common people' versus 'chaebol reform' and emphasized progressive symbols of fundamental change, such as 'nation remodeling' and 'reform,' suggesting a strategy of maximal differentiation. This may reflect his own identity but also his urgent need to differentiate himself from the frontrunners, Moon Jae-in and Son Hak-kyu, as a latecomer in the opposition camp.

[Table 1] Frequency of Utterances for Top 30 Core Keywords

3. Semantic Network Analysis by Candidate

Park Geun-hye: Achieving happiness through the economy; tasks include jobs, welfare, transparency (economic democratization)

La fuente del liderazgo enfatiza la "confianza", pero carece en las áreas de "seguridad" y "medio ambiente"

First, examining the semantic network graph, the concepts of 'dream' and 'happiness' are densely located at the center around candidate Park Geun-hye, indicating that these concepts serve as the core hub of her declaration. 'Economy' acts as the connecting concept linking 'people' who 'dream' of 'happiness' with candidate Park Geun-hye. The concept of economy is situated at the center of the network among these concepts. As noted earlier, concepts related to the nation, such as 'nation' and 'Republic of Korea,' are connected to major concepts but are located at the periphery (upper end) of the network, reflecting a people-centric approach to governance.

Economic 'tasks' (lower left) are linked to 'jobs,' 'welfare,' and 'transparency,' rather than the past 'growth-first' approach, confirming Park Geun-hye's policy repositioning. The fact that the 'economic tasks' concept is not linked to the 'growth' concept in the lower left precisely aligns with Park Geun-hye's strategy of 'minimal differentiation' from opposition candidates. Furthermore, the connection of 'economic tasks' to 'transparency' suggests that she primarily focuses on 'expanding transparency' for economic democratization.

The core concept connecting 'government,' 'politics,' and 'people' is concentrated in the concept of 'trust.' This suggests that candidate Park will prioritize securing public trust as a key task during the election campaign. Her emphasis on trust is also evident in her linking the 'Korean Peninsula' issue to the concept of 'trust.' However, the near absence of keywords related to security, inter-Korean relations, or recent contentious issues like the environment indicates that her primary election message will focus on domestic economic agendas.

Moon Jae-in's governance tasks: Clearly highlighting policy tasks of 'jobs-welfare state-growth'

Relative advantage in agendas such as women and peace; weak linkage between core slogan and core policy tasks

The semantic network graph of Moon Jae-in's candidacy declaration clearly shows that it is structured around core policy tasks. Concepts such as 'welfare,' 'jobs,' 'growth,' and 'economy' are densely arranged at the center of the core keywords. In his declaration, he presented 'fairness and justice' as the foundation of the nation and outlined 'inclusive growth, people-centered growth, ecological growth, and cooperative growth' as his four growth strategies, while presenting a 'strong welfare state' and 'job revolution' as major policy tasks. The concept of 'welfare state' is also linked to the concept of 'investment' rather than unilateral benefits, suggesting a strategy of minimal differentiation targeting the center.

Additionally, he presented policy tasks such as 'A nation where children, women, and the elderly smile brightly' and 'A strong Republic of Korea, a peaceful Korean Peninsula,' addressing vulnerable groups and security agendas. However, these are located at the periphery of the network, implying that economic tasks will take precedence in terms of priority. Nevertheless, the inclusion of women and peace issues as top keywords, which were not identified as core keywords by other candidates, can be considered a relative strength.

However, the core slogan of the declaration, “President of our country,” is somewhat peripheral in the upper left of the graph, and it is difficult to find close connections with the major core policy task concepts. The lack of precise linkage between the central content of the declaration and the slogan is a point of regret.

[Figure 1] Semantic Network of Park Geun-hye's Candidacy Declaration (Top 30 Core Keywords)

[Figure 2] Semantic Network of Moon Jae-in's Candidacy Declaration (Top 30 Core Keywords)

Son Hak-kyu: Overcoming conflict, division, and discrimination through 'social integration, inter-Korean integration, political integration'

Emphasizes 'livelihood, democracy, welfare, progressive growth'; needs to complement the integration logic of the education agenda and the 'competent progressive' theory

Compared to Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in, Son Hak-kyu's candidacy declaration semantic keyword network analysis graph has a much simpler structure. In particular, the overall logical structure could be simplified by consistently linking problem diagnosis and solutions around core keywords.

First, the reality and crisis of the Republic of Korea are concisely summarized by the keywords 'conflict' and 'division.' That is, the tasks in the socio-economic domain of 'livelihood,' 'democratization,' and 'welfare,' as well as the policy task of 'peace community on the Korean Peninsula' in the security domain, are all linked to the concepts of 'conflict' and 'division.' The solutions also appear to be unified under the single value of 'community integration,' as concisely expressed in the declaration, such as 'social integration, inter-Korean integration, and political integration.' The simple message of integration to overcome conflict, division, and discrimination, repeated consistently, is likely to be clearly conveyed to voters.

However, the issue of 'education,' emphasized by most candidates, appears to be barely linked to other national tasks and issues. While the declaration emphasizes that the desired leadership for the Republic of Korea is 'competent progressivism, dignified progressivism,' if the results of this graphic analysis are correct, it would have been necessary to complement the concept of competent progressivism with meaningful concepts that support it.

Kim Doo-kwan: Based on a dichotomous perception of 'chaebol-centric, growth-oriented economy' versus 'common people-centric, equal society, equal nation'

Concise and consistent logical development centered on the concept of equality; democratization concept is not linked

Similar to Son Hak-kyu's declaration, Kim Doo-kwan's declaration, unlike Park Geun-hye or Moon Jae-in, is characterized by its approach of consistently explaining through a few keywords rather than elaborating on core keywords in various fields. The network graph suggests that Governor Kim Doo-kwan presents a concise logical structure centered on 'equality.'

A second characteristic is the confirmation that a simple dichotomy of 'chaebol-centric, growth-oriented economy' versus 'common people-centric, equal society, equal nation' forms the basic logical structure. Unlike other candidates who include concepts that minimize differentiation and appeal to centrist voters alongside values and policy concepts that differentiate them from opponents, Kim Doo-kwan's declaration is thoroughly based on a polarization strategy, as confirmed by the graph.

Given its thorough basis in a 'maximal differentiation strategy,' it is highly likely that the declaration was written targeting voters with a tendency towards the opposition. This logic may be evaluated as relatively difficult in eliciting favorable responses from centrist voters. Furthermore, from the graph, it is regrettable that the concept of 'democratization' is detached from the overall logical structure, due to the strong and consistent logic regarding the socio-economic system that guarantees privilege.

[Figure 3] Semantic Network of Son Hak-kyu's Candidacy Declaration (Top 30 Core Keywords)

[Figure 4] Semantic Network of Kim Doo-kwan's Candidacy Declaration (Top 30 Core Keywords)

[Table 2] Comparison of Actual Candidacy Declarations

Note: The author compiled the presidential candidacy declarations of each candidate.