Witness to Transformation: Refugee Insights into North Korea

Dr. Stephen Haggard visited the East Asia Institute on July 11, 2011, to discuss the main findings and conclusions presented in his latest book, Witness to Transformation: Refugee Insights into North Korea. This book is based on insights from North Korean refugees now living in China and South Korea.

Summary of the Seminar

Based on survey findings of refugees, Professor Haggard presented an image of North Korean society as becoming more unequal and an economy driven by corruption.

In presenting an overview of the refugees surveyed, Professor Haggard noted that a majority suffered from post-traumatic stress. Contrary to popular belief, this was not due to the terrible conditions of life as a refugee, but rather from experiences endured in North Korea, such as forced starvation or witnessing executions.

For the majority of refugees surveyed, engaging in corrupt or criminal activities is the only way to get ahead. Furthermore, they also believed that the only way to advance in society is to become a government official, which would allow them to engage in such activities. Taken together, this indicates how corruption is becoming more ingrained in society and is part of the markets that most people depend on for survival. The political attitudes of refugees are also important for understanding the level of opposition in North Korea. The surveys show that the majority believe the government is responsible for North Korea’s economic failings. While this may not be surprising for refugees, the significant decrease in those who believe foreign countries are responsible for economic failings shows growing disillusionment with the regime. Professor Haggard, however, pointed out that this does not translate into political opposition. When viewing the data on the level of overt political activity, the numbers are very low, even for political gestures such as making jokes.

The growing marketization would seem to indicate that the official ideology in North Korea is being challenged as people gain increasing access to foreign news and media. However, Professor Haggard believed that there is still no major opposition to the regime. Collective action and organization—a combination of institutions, political movements, and technology—are essential for a revolution to occur, and North Korea lacks all of these key ingredients to facilitate change.

With growing corruption and market activities, some discussants wondered how long the North Korean regime could survive. In Professor Haggard’s view, however, the North Korean regime is expected to survive the current dynastic leadership succession process, avoiding the “hard landing” scenario that many analysts fear. Party cadres and military elites would likely perceive the incentives to support Kim Jong-un as outweighing the potential benefits of openly challenging him. Moreover, although marketization is creating a distinct socioeconomic sphere outside the state's reach, it has not developed sufficiently to serve as a platform for challenging the regime from below. It is expected that the regime will likely proceed to further rein in the market once the power transition is completed.

When discussants raised the possibility of outside intervention to facilitate reforms, Professor Haggard felt it would be best if regional powers adopted coordinated policies that address material deprivation in North Korea while also encouraging structural transformation, such as by supporting Pyongyang’s membership in international financial institutions. A line should be drawn, however, when formulating policies between reciprocal economic engagement and unconditional humanitarian aid, as the purpose of the latter is neither to change the regime nor to improve relations.

In this regard, the question of providing humanitarian aid to North Korea was debated, considering the current dire situation in North Korea and the high levels of corruption as outlined previously. Professor Haggard believed that the situation in North Korea was worse than in 2008 (the previous period of major food shortages) and therefore required urgent food aid. He believed that the decision to provide aid should not be contingent upon developments in nuclear negotiations but should be solely to address the dangers of widespread famine. Aid should, however, still be properly monitored with the further goal of promoting agricultural reforms.

About the Speaker

Stephen Haggard is the Lawrence and Sallye Krause Professor at the University of California, San Diego Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies, where he has directed the Korea-Pacific Program since 1999. He is also a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, as well as the editorial boards of journals such as International Organization, the Korean Journal of Policy Studies, and International Relations of the Asia-Pacific.

Stephen Haggard received his Ph.D. in political science from Berkeley in 1983 and taught in the department of government at Harvard University from 1983 to 1991. He also served as director of the University of California's system-wide Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC), based at UC San Diego. His research interests center on international relations and political economy, with a focus on East Asia and Latin America. He has written on East Asia's economic growth, the Latin American and East Asian financial crises, democratization, and federalism. He has recently turned his attention to the study of the North Korean economy, writing two books in cooperation with Dr. Marcus Noland.

Moderator

Sook-Jong Lee, President of the East Asia Institute

Discussants

Youngshik Bong, Asan Institute for Policy Studies

Byung-Yeon Kim, Seoul National University

Yong-Hyun Kim, Dongguk University

Young-Ho Park, Korea Institute for National Unification

Seungji Woo, Kyung Hee University

Ho-Yeol Yoo, Korea University