6.2 Local Elections and the Revival of Generational Divides

EAI OPINION Review No. 201006-03

Jointly conducted by EAI, SBS, JoongAng Ilbo, and Korea Research

Based on the analysis of data from the 1st and 2nd waves of the National Panel Survey for the 5th Local Elections

6.2 Local Elections and Generational Divides

One of the distinct characteristics of this local election was the revival of the generational divide that enabled President Roh's victory in 2002. In this local election, voting tendencies of the young generation (ages 20-30s) and the older generation (ages 50+) showed a clear difference. Furthermore, as the 40s, who hold the casting vote between these two generations, leaned towards supporting the opposition party, the ruling party faced difficulties.

Table 1 below compares the approval ratings of candidates in the Seoul metropolitan area by generation, based on the exit polls jointly conducted by the three major broadcasters. In the metropolitan area elections, including Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Incheon, which were the main battlegrounds, 56.7% to 70.5% of voters in their 20s and 30s supported the unified opposition candidate, while 57.6% to 80.7% of voters aged 50 and above supported the Grand National Party candidate. This confirms the significant difference in voting intentions across generations. Among voters in their 40s, 37.4% to 46.1% supported the Grand National Party candidate, while 53.0% to 60.7% supported the opposition candidate, contributing to the opposition's performance.

[Table 1] Approval Ratings for Grand National Party and Main Opposition Party Candidates in the Seoul Metropolitan Area by Generation in the 6.2 Local Elections (%)

* Source: Broadcast Exit Polls for the 2010 Local Elections

These generational differences in voting tendencies are very similar to the 2002 presidential election. As shown in Table 2 below, in the 2002 presidential election, voters in their 20s and 30s overwhelmingly supported candidate Roh Moo-hyun, while a clear generational divide emerged with older voters (50+) showing strong support for candidate Lee Hoi-chang. However, this generational divide significantly weakened in the 2007 presidential election, where candidate Lee Myung-bak garnered higher support than candidate Chung Dong-young across all age groups, including those in their 20s and 30s. In the 2008 general election, generational differences in voting tendencies persisted but were considerably weakened. While the Democratic Party had high support among voters in their 20s, voters in their 30s and above commonly showed higher support for the Grand National Party than for the Democratic Party. Ultimately, we can confirm that the generational divide, which greatly influenced the outcome of the 2002 presidential election, had weakened in the 2007 presidential election and 2008 general election, and has now re-emerged in this local election.

[Table 2] Generational Party Support in Presidential/General Elections: 2002 Presidential Election, 2007 Presidential Election, 2008 General Election (%)

* Source: MBC-KRC Joint Poll (2002), EAI 17th Presidential Election Panel Post-Election Survey (2007), EAI 17th General Election Panel 2nd Survey (2008)

Why Did the Generational Divide Revive?

What are the reasons for the revival of generational politics, which had weakened in the 2007 presidential election and 2008 general election? What factors led young voters to withdraw their support from the incumbent ruling party and shift their support to the opposition in this local election?

High Dissatisfaction Among Young Voters with the MB Administration's Governance

The difference in voting behavior across generations appears to be primarily due to the higher level of dissatisfaction among younger generations with the current administration's governance. As shown in Table 3 below, the proportion of respondents in their 20s and 30s who rated the Lee Myung-bak administration's governance as 'poor' was higher than those who rated it as 'good.' Conversely, among those aged 50 and above, the proportion who rated it as 'good' was higher. The survey results indicating that young people evaluate the Lee Myung-bak administration's governance very negatively suggest that a significant portion of the young voters who supported Lee Myung-bak in the last presidential election were disappointed with his administration's governance, and consequently withdrew their support from the Grand National Party in this local election.

[Table 3] Generational Evaluation of the Lee Myung-bak Administration's Governance (%)

* Source: 2nd Wave National Panel Survey for the 2010 Local Elections (June 3-5)

To confirm this, as shown in Table 4 below, we analyzed how voters who voted for candidate Lee Myung-bak in the 2007 presidential election voted in this local election, broken down by age group. Overall, 65.3% of those who voted for Lee Myung-bak in the presidential election voted for the Grand National Party candidate again in this local election, but 12.3% voted for the Democratic Party candidate, 12.3% voted for other parties, and 10.1% did not vote. When analyzed by age group, it is evident that younger voters were less likely to vote for the Grand National Party candidate and more likely to vote for the Democratic Party candidate. Notably, among voters in their 20s, only 34.6% of those who supported Lee Myung-bak in the presidential election voted for the Grand National Party candidate in this local election, clearly indicating an exodus of young supporters who had placed their hopes in candidate Lee Myung-bak.

[Table 4] Voting Tendencies in Local Elections by Age Group Among Voters for Candidate Lee Myung-bak in the 2007 Presidential Election (%) : 404 respondents

* Source: 1st Wave National Panel Survey for the 2010 Local Elections (May 4-6, 2010), 2nd Wave (June 3-5, 2010)

Reasons for Dissatisfaction with Governance

Why does the younger generation evaluate the Lee Myung-bak administration's state management more negatively compared to other generations? The reason the younger generation critically evaluated the Lee Myung-bak administration's state management appears to be, first and foremost, that they, accustomed to a de-authoritarian culture, harbor antipathy towards the government and ruling party's self-righteousness and lack of communication in politics. In particular, it can be inferred that the 20-30 generation, having internalized democratic values, strongly opposed the current government's authoritarian governing style and its actions restricting freedom of expression, as seen through the Minerva incident and the controversy surrounding entertainer Kim Je-dong's departure from broadcast. The considerable persuasiveness of this inference can be confirmed by survey results, as shown in [Figure 1], which indicate distinct generational differences in attitudes toward political order and freedom, with younger generations tending to prioritize freedom over order.

[Figure 1] Comparison of Generational Attitudes Towards Political Order and Freedom

* Source: 2nd Wave National Panel Survey for the 2010 Local Elections

Furthermore, survey results showing that younger generations are more critical of the Lee Myung-bak administration's major policies, such as the revision of the Sejong City plan and the Four Major Rivers Project, can be seen as contributing factors to the dissatisfaction of young people with the administration's governance. In particular, as shown in Figure 2 below, younger generations expressed strong opposition to the Four Major Rivers Project. This outcome can be inferred from the tendency of younger generations to be more sensitive to environmental issues, leading them to sympathize with the opposition's argument that the Four Major Rivers Project would cause environmental destruction.

[Figure 2] Generational Attitudes Towards the Four Major Rivers Project

* Source: 2nd Wave National Panel Survey for the 2010 Local Elections

The Cheonan Incident and Backlash

It has been confirmed that the security concerns triggered by the Cheonan incident and the hardline North Korea policy have led to significant rejection among the younger generation, considerably influencing their voting tendencies. First, Table 5 below shows a clear difference in generational evaluations of President Lee Myung-bak and the government's response to North Korea in relation to the sinking of the Cheonan. Among those in their 20s, 67.7% responded that the government's hardline policy towards North Korea was 'poorly handled.' For those in their 30s and 40s, the proportion responding 'poorly handled' was also higher than 'well handled,' at 59.9% and 53.7%, respectively.

Moreover, the younger generation appears to suspect that the government and ruling party handled the Cheonan incident with political intentions. When asked whether the announcement of the Cheonan sinking had political intentions by the Grand National Party and the Lee Myung-bak administration to influence the local elections, 87.1% of those in their 20s and 77.9% of those in their 30s answered affirmatively. In contrast, only 59.5% of those in their 50s and 48.2% of those aged 60 and above believed there were political intentions.

Furthermore, the younger generation showed a tendency not to trust the findings of the joint civilian-military investigation team regarding the Cheonan sinking. When asked about the degree of trust in the joint investigation team's findings, a stark generational divide emerged. While the proportion trusting the joint investigation team's announcement reached 91.3% among those in their 50s and 88.5% among those aged 60 and above, it was only 62.4% for those in their 40s, 41.8% for those in their 30s, and 45.8% for those in their 20s.

[Table 5] Generational Evaluation of President Lee Myung-bak and the Government's Response to North Korea Regarding the Sinking of the Cheonan (%)

* Source: 2nd Wave National Panel Survey for the 2010 Local Elections (Sum of 'Very Poorly Handled' and 'Somewhat Poorly Handled' responses)

In summary, while the Cheonan incident served to rally support for the Grand National Party among conservatives by causing security concerns during this local election, it also generated a backlash among progressives and the younger generation, who suspected the government and ruling party of politically exploiting the incident and fostered a critical atmosphere towards the government's hardline North Korea policy. This situation is highly similar to the anti-American sentiment, fueled by events such as the candlelight protests following the deaths of middle school students during the 2002 presidential election, which contributed to the overwhelming support for candidate Roh Moo-hyun among young voters.

Different Information Channels Across Generations

A more structural reason for the revival of the generational divide that warrants attention is the significant diversification of information acquisition channels across generations compared to the past. When asked about the primary source of information regarding the local elections, 56.4% of those in their 20s, 39.2% in their 30s, and 29.2% in their 40s cited the internet as the most important channel. In contrast, for those in their 50s and 60s and above, TV was the primary source (40.5% and 38.8%, respectively), followed by newspapers (17.0% and 31.8%, respectively), while the internet accounted for only 19.6% and 8.2%, respectively.

Furthermore, analyses suggest that the mobilization of young voters through social networks like Twitter had a considerable impact on this election. Survey results also show that respondents in their 20s and 30s paid close attention to netizens' opinions on internet media, whereas interest in netizens' opinions significantly decreased with age.

In summary, older generations (50s and above) primarily obtain information through traditional media such as newspapers and television, meaning the frames and tendencies of these media significantly influence the political attitudes of older generations. Conversely, younger generations have a very low reliance on mainstream newspapers and television for information and tend to acquire information through new media, including internet media and online communities. Therefore, the influence of traditional media on younger generations is limited, and it appears that internet media and discussion forums, which tend to have a progressive leaning, have had a significant impact on the political attitudes of the younger generation.

Generational Divides and the Future of Korean Politics

Polarization of Security Perceptions is a Cause for Concern

Will the generational divide observed in this local election persist in the future? What impact will the generational divide have on Korean politics? While disparities in attitudes and perceptions between generations are not unique to Korea and are commonly observed in other countries, the fact that the generational gap has emerged as a major political divide and significantly influences electoral politics in Korea necessitates attention to its future effects and persistence. Particularly concerning is the polarization of security perceptions between older and younger generations surrounding foreign policy and security issues, as evidenced by the Cheonan incident. While advanced democracies tend to exhibit bipartisan cooperation across party lines on national security matters, the situation in Korea, where conflict and confrontation arise between the ruling and opposition parties due to differing views on the investigation and response to the Cheonan sinking, and where significant attitudinal differences exist among the general public based on age and party affiliation, is deeply worrying given the persistent security threats.

Ruling Party: Communicate with the Younger Generation

The ruling party faces significant burdens in its future governance due to its unexpected defeat in this local election. If the opposition party, emboldened by this election, adopts an aggressive stance in scrutinizing the ruling party, maintaining leadership in future governance will be challenging. In particular, if the generational divide observed in this local election persists, the ruling party will face difficulties in the upcoming general and presidential elections. Furthermore, the fact that a considerable portion of the younger generation is dissatisfied with the government's governance is a major concern. The finding that over 70% of the younger generation does not trust the investigation results of the joint team regarding the Cheonan incident should be taken seriously. To address the various suspicions circulating online about the Cheonan incident, it is imperative to boldly disclose information and investigation results related to the incident.

Moreover, it is crucial to note that the reason young people evaluate the current administration's governance negatively is not solely due to opposition to specific policies, but also significantly influenced by resentment towards the government's authoritarian behavior and its unilateral implementation methods. Therefore, the ruling party must make concerted efforts to respect democratic procedures and persuade dissenting groups in its future governance. Additionally, it should actively explore ways to expand communication with the younger generation by utilizing social network services such as internet communities and Twitter.

Revival of Generational Politics, Revival of the Democratic Party?

For the Democratic Party, which suffered devastating defeats against the Grand National Party in major elections such as the 2006 local elections, 2007 presidential election, and 2008 general election, this local election has reversed the trend, offering hope for future general and presidential elections. Most importantly, it is encouraging that the Democratic Party has been able to recover the support base of the younger generation, which it lost in the previous presidential and general elections. However, considering the high volatility of Korean politics, it remains uncertain whether the generational divide will be replicated in the next general and presidential elections. Furthermore, it is clear that the overwhelming support from the younger generation for the Democratic Party in this local election was not due to a positive evaluation of the party itself, but rather a backlash effect stemming from disappointment with and a desire to check the Grand National Party. Therefore, the Democratic Party must focus on establishing a clear party identity and strengthening its vulnerable leadership. The public's sentiment expressed in this election also calls for the Democratic Party to act as a responsible main opposition party that presents concrete policy alternatives, rather than merely serving as a check on the ruling party. The future of the Democratic Party hinges on how it responds to this public sentiment.■