Survey on the Trust and Influence of Presidential Candidates

Most Political Leaders Show Low Trust Relative to Influence

Lee Myung-bak Ranks First in Influence and Trust; Park Geun-hye Ranks Second

The Regression of Korean Politics: Presidential Candidates Remain Under the Influence of Second-Tier Politicians

Former President Kim Dae-jung Ranks Third in Influence and Fourth in Trust

Former Prime Minister Lee Hoi-chang Ranks Fifth in Influence and Third in Trust

President Roh Moo-hyun Ranks Fourth in Influence and Seventh in Trust

Korean politics is still significantly influenced by the qualities and roles of leaders, as much as by institutions. Over the past five years, Korea has experienced the profound impact of President Roh's personal perceptions and attitudes on the government's policy implementation process. EAI (Director Kim Byong-kook) and the JoongAng Ilbo have applied indicators measuring power institutions in terms of trust and influence over the past three years to former and current presidents and current presidential candidates. The main survey findings are summarized as follows.

First, the evaluation of trust and influence among major political figures starkly illustrates how little trust the public places in Korean politics. Only candidates Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye, currently vying for first and second place in the presidential race, appear in the first quadrant, demonstrating significant political influence coupled with public trust. The remaining nine candidates are concentrated in the third quadrant, exerting little influence and receiving little public trust. Candidate Lee Myung-bak had the highest average influence score of 6.24 out of 10, and while he received the best score in trust, it was only 5.64. Candidate Park Geun-hye scored 5.70 in influence and 5.38 in trust, also indicating relatively lower trust compared to influence. Even the two individuals considered to have the highest trust in Korean politics only score in the 5-point range. In an absolute sense, it is difficult to consider even these individuals as having earned significant public trust.

Second, the evaluation of the ruling party's presidential candidates reveals an even more serious problem. While it is rare for the ruling party's presidential candidates to be so numerous in any election, it is also uncommon for them to be unable to exercise leadership in the presidential race. Among the ruling party candidates, only Sohn Hak-kyu exceeded 3 points in both influence and trust; the remaining candidates received scores in the 2-point range. In the eyes of the public, the ruling party's presidential candidates appear to be unable to escape the influence of the incumbent president. In terms of trust, only Sohn Hak-kyu and Han Myeong-sook either surpass or maintain a similar level of trust as President Roh; all other candidates receive lower trust than President Roh. The presidential candidates for the next election are perceived with more public distrust than the incumbent president at the end of his term, whose approval ratings have plummeted.

Third, there is a clear trend of increasing influence among politicians who have stepped back from the front lines, as skepticism towards the leadership and trustworthiness of current politicians spreads. Former President Kim Dae-jung was found to wield significant influence, ranking after candidates Lee and Park in the overall public survey, followed by former leader Lee Hoi-chang. However, for former President Kim, the gap between his influence and trust ratings was relatively large, suggesting the existence of negative perceptions regarding his political involvement. Nevertheless, among the groups supporting the ruling party candidates in the current presidential election, former President Kim Dae-jung was selected as the most trusted politician. This confirms that former President Kim Dae-jung possesses the political foundation to actively voice his opinions during the presidential election campaign. In the case of former leader Lee Hoi-chang, while his influence is considerably less than that of former President Kim, his relatively high public trust is noteworthy. The reality that former presidents and former opposition party leaders, who are no longer on the political front lines, are surpassing the ruling party's presidential candidates demonstrates that collective distrust in current political leaders is at a serious level.