[EAI 观点评论]“统一红利”构想支持率下降：重燃统一动力的途径

多媒体  [智囊问答：郑汉蔚] 民众对朴槿惠总统统一政策的评价

[民众对朴槿惠政府统一政策的评价]

“统一红利”构想支持率下降：对统一的担忧根深蒂固

重燃动力之道：(1) 改善韩朝关系 (2) 民生经济 (3) 推进党政关系修复

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朴槿惠政府执政半程的统一政策评估

■ “统一红利”构想的动力萎缩：对“统一红利”构想的支持下降；对统一的担忧依旧

■ 20多岁和30多岁的年轻人也持怀疑态度

朴槿惠政府已届半程，正步入任期的后半段。现在是时候政府对前半程的国政运营进行实际评估，并为后半程的政策制定制定切实计划。希望政府不要因为围绕国会法修订的党政冲突而忽视了对国家愿景和战略进行审视和修正的必要性。鉴于当前紧张的韩朝关系以及朝鲜半岛分裂70周年这一重要节点，政府评估其对朝政策并审视其后半程战略的必要性变得更加迫切。本文将通过韩国民众的视角考察政府的统一政策，并诊断朴槿惠政府统一政策存在的问题，提出可能的解决方案。

朴槿惠政府的统一政策被誉为“统一红利”理论。我们可以看到，在过去一年中，公众对该政策的看法已发生转变（见图1）。让我们来看看EAI委托Hankook Research于2015年5月和2014年6月进行的民意调查结果。“统一红利”构想于2014年1月公布，朴槿惠于2014年3月发表了她的德累斯顿倡议。在这些宣告之后，55%的韩国人支持政府的“统一红利”构想。也就是说，韩国人民对朴槿惠总统于2014年1月提出的前所未有的“红利”论做出了积极回应。

然而，一年后的今天，赞同“统一红利”构想的人比例已降至47%。同一时期，不赞同该论调的人比例从45%升至53%。此外，对统一持积极态度并赞同“应尽快实现统一”的韩国人比例仍然是少数，2014年为16%，2015年为15%。相反，大多数人——2014年为63%，2015年为64%——对统一持更谨慎态度，并赞同“必须实现统一，但不应仓促进行”的论调（见图2）。由此可见，政府试图将民众对统一的态度从被动转变为主动的努力正在失败。

年轻人尤其对统一持消极态度，这并非小问题。21世纪初就已发现一种现象：越年轻一代，对统一的怀疑态度越严重（이내영 2010）。以往各届政府都投入了大量精力，以向年轻一代灌输统一的重要性。然而，当我们看EAI于2015年进行的一项调查时，20多岁人群中有29%，30多岁人群中有19%，40多岁人群中有15%，50多岁人群中有13%，60岁及以上人群中有15%赞同“没有必要统一”的论调。这表明，政府未能阻止年轻一代对统一的怀疑态度增长——而这一代人将塑造公众舆论的长期发展趋势（见图3）。

[图1] 对“统一红利”构想态度的变化                                [图2] 对统一态度的变化

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               € 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来源：EAI与韩国研究公司（Hankook Research）的安保意识调查（2015年5月；2014年6月）

[图3] 按世代划分的统一意愿（%）

来源：EAI与韩国研究公司（Hankook Research）的安保意识调查（2015年5月；2014年6月）

统一势头恶化的原因

（1）政府支持基础的削弱

（2）朝韩关系的僵局

（3）民众对经济疲软的认知

根据执政第二年进行的各项调查，朴槿惠总统支持率较高的原因之一在于，许多人支持她对朝政策。那么，一度获得多数韩国人支持的“大一统”构想（unification as a “Bonanza” idea）的势头为何会减弱？

首先，总统施政的国政运营的国民支持率本身大幅下降。如果对照EAI调查实施同期，盖洛普韩国（Gallup Korea）每月进行的国政支持率调查结果，可以发现政府支持率显著下滑。2014年6月，近半数（47%）韩国民众对朴槿惠总统给予了肯定评价，然而到了2015年6月，仅39%的民众认同其施政（参见图4）。普遍认为，在朴槿惠总统的核心支持层，包括意识形态保守派和新世界党（Saenuri Party）的坚定支持者中，对“大一统”构想的支持度越高。若再对照意识形态倾向的“大一统”构想支持率，两项调查均显示自由派支持度较低，而保守派支持度较高（参见图5）。因此，可以推断“大一统”构想支持率的下降与总统个人支持率的下降密切相关。

其次，国民对朝韩关系紧张的感受显而易见。无论政府如何强调“大一统”构想，如果朝韩关系没有改善，民众必然会对统一感到警惕。在2015年的调查中，关于过去一年朝韩关系的变化，高达65%的受访者回答“朝韩关系恶化”。34%的受访者认为“与去年相比情况没有变化”，只有2%的受访者认为“朝韩关系得到改善”。如果感受不到朝韩关系的变化，那么“大一统”构想的支持度必将随着时间的推移而减弱（参见图6）。

第三，在“大一统”构想支持率下降的原因中，不容忽视的是民众对经济的负面认知。（参见图6）。在2015年的调查中，55%的受访者认为过去一年经济状况恶化。经济投票（economic voting）的逻辑不必赘述，当民众认为经济正在改善时，总统的支持率也会随之上升（EAI 오피니언리뷰 2015-02）。此外，与对经济状况持肯定态度的民众相比，对经济悲观的民众并不热衷于统一，因为统一可能会带来经济负担。若将民众对经济的认知与“大一统”构想的支持率进行比较，认为经济有所改善的受访者支持“大一统”构想的比率为59%，认为经济没有变化的受访者为52%。相比之下，认为经济状况恶化的受访者对“大一统”构想的支持率为42%（参见图7）。

上述政府支持率下降、朝韩关系无改善、民众经济负面认知等问题均未取得实质性进展。因此，可以推断，民众感受到的状况恶化正导致作为“大一统”构想象征的政府统一政策的支持率下降。

[图4] 朴槿惠政府支持率变化（%）                                           [图5] 按意识形态划分的“大一统”构想支持率（%）

Rating of the Park Administration (%)                                      “Bonanza” Idea Based on Ideology (%)

Source: Gallup Korea’s Regular Survey                                   Source: EAI and Hankook Research’s Security

(May 2015; June 2014)                                                             Perception Survey (May 2015; June 2014)

[图6] 国民经济和朝韩关系评价变化（%）                                [图7] 按经济认知划分的“大一统”构想支持率（%）

Economy and Inter-Korean Relations (%)                                Based on Perception of the Economy (%)

Source: EAI and Hankook Research’s                                        Source: EAI and Hankook Research’s Security

Security Perception Survey                                                         Perception Survey (May 2015; June 2014)

(May 2015; June 2014)

如何挽回“大一统”构想的势头

■ 必须全力促进经济和朝韩关系，以重振势头

国民对政府对朝政策的支持率下降，意味着“大一统”构想的势头正在减弱。重振对“大一统”构想的关注度和支持度的势头，是朴槿惠政府在对朝政策方面的主要课题。现在的朴槿惠政府已进入任期后半段，如何才能重新点燃国民对统一的关注？

首先，政府必须解决因执政党与行政部门的紧张关系而引发的政治危机，并努力重建其政治支持基础。没有什么比执政党内部的摩擦更能引起国民的焦虑和失望。在本届政府初期，朴槿惠总统支持率在不利条件下依然保持较高水平的原因在于，与历届政府相比，本届政府有效管理了执政集团内部的紧张关系（EAI 오피니언리뷰 2014-02; 2014-03）。考虑到政府通常会在任期后半段失去动力，为了妥善管理国政，行政部门至少应与执政党合作，甚至争取与在野党合作。如果无法实现这一点，那么重振政府支持率将是不可能的。如果像现在这样忽视执政集团内部的裂痕，那么“大一统”构想的政治支持基础的重建将很可能无法实现。

同时，也必须解决阻碍“大一统”构想的现实障碍。在朝韩关系方面，南北双方都必须共同努力，才能取得任何实质性进展。无论总统如何强调朝韩关系，如果不能促成切实的改变，那么要取得成果将十分困难。此外，为了加强对政府和统一政策的支持，必须全力改善国民的经济情绪。如果经济状况恶化且经济不确定性显著增加，那么民众必然会持续要求采取规避风险的统一政策。总而言之，政府必须集中精力改善朝韩关系和重振经济，并取得让韩国民众能够感受到的成果。只有这样，“大一统”构想才能重燃。执政党和行政部门不应内耗。 ■