[EAI 22nd General Election Conference] Political Dissatisfaction and Third Party Voting: An Analysis of the Determinants of Voting for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party and the Reform Party in the 22nd National Assembly Election

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9fC6Se6NIg

Video Script

Yes, hello. I am Jeong Yeong-gyeong from the Institute for Social Sciences at Seoul National University. Today, I will discuss the recent success of the Cho Kuk Innovation Party and the Reform Party in the general election. Specifically, I will conduct an in-depth analysis of the factors influencing their voters' decisions, focusing on whether dissatisfaction with existing parties truly led to votes for these new parties. One of the most notable phenomena in this general election was the emergence of several new parties, among which the Cho Kuk Innovation Party and the Reform Party performed exceptionally well. Despite the two major parties creating satellite parties to absorb votes from smaller parties, the Cho Kuk Innovation Party secured its position as the third-largest party, and the Reform Party successfully entered the National Assembly by overcoming the threshold.

Background of the New Party Phenomenon and the Possibility of Protest Voting

Therefore, it seems to be a time when curiosity is growing about who voted for the new party and why. Many people seem to be predicting that voters who were already politically dissatisfied with the two major existing parties have transferred their votes, or perhaps the unaffiliated voters have shifted, or maybe fundamental, classic factors like ideology or favorability have played a larger role. My research focused on examining the determinants of voting decisions, particularly for the Cho Kuk Party and the Reform Party, in the 22nd general election, and specifically looked more closely at the effect of political dissatisfaction with the two major existing parties. In political science, the act of transferring votes to a third party due to disappointment with a previously supported party or its figures is referred to as protest voting. It means casting a vote in a way that signifies actual protest or resistance. For such protest voting to occur, two preconditions must be met: first, naturally, there must be significant disappointment with the previously supported party that one wishes to express; and second, there must be a viable and sustainable alternative party through which this can be expressed.

Looking at the 22nd general election, it seems that the second precondition has been met. Several parties have already emerged. For example, the Cho Kuk Innovation Party, founded about a month before the election, maintained very high approval ratings, giving voters the signal that 'this party will successfully enter the National Assembly' and 'it can sufficiently serve as an alternative party.' Given the existence of such alternative parties, the question arises whether disappointment with previously supported parties has indeed led to voting for third parties, i.e., new parties.

Analysis of the Political Characteristics of New Party Voters

As you can see, over 80% of Cho Kuk Innovation Party voters cast their ballots for the Democratic Party in the district races, realizing the 'District: Democratic, Proportional: Cho Kuk' (지민비조) phenomenon. For the Reform Party, while the majority voted for the People Power Party candidates, a significant portion also voted for Reform Party candidates. Interestingly, about 22% of Reform Party voters indicated they voted for Democratic Party candidates, whereas only 4% of Cho Kuk Innovation Party voters did so. This suggests a difference in the characteristics of these two voter groups. We then examined the choices made by these new party voters in the 20th general election, not the most recent one. The table shows the voting choices of Cho Kuk Innovation Party voters in the 20th general election. It appears that most of them were previously Democratic Party supporters.

A notable 34% of respondents indicated they voted for both the Democratic Party and the Citizen's Party in district and proportional representation, respectively. An interesting observation is that this voting group seems to consist of two distinct segments. In the proportional representation vote, they supported third-tier minor parties such as the Justice Party or the People's Party, rather than the Democratic Party or the United Future Party. The Reform Party's voter base shows a similar pattern. Most of these voters appear to be supporters of the United Future Party who voted for the United Future Party or Future Korea Party in the 20th general election. More intriguingly, 68% of them have a history of voting for third-tier, minor parties in proportional representation elections. Synthesizing these findings, the political characteristics of new party voters can be summarized as either supporters of the existing major parties or those who voted for minor parties. This leads me to infer a high likelihood of protest voting.

34% of respondents indicated that they voted for both the constituency and proportional representation of the Democratic Party of Korea and the Citizen Coalition for Democracy. One of the interesting points is that this voting group seems to consist of two groups. In the proportional representation vote, they voted for third minor parties such as the Justice Party and the People's Party, not the Democratic Party or the United Future Party. The Reform Party is very similar. Most of these appear to be supporters of the United Future Party who voted for the United Future Party and the Future Korea Party in the 20th general election. More interestingly, 68% of them can be seen as voters who have experience voting for third parties or minor parties in the proportional representation vote. Considering these points comprehensively, the political characteristics of new party voters can be summarized as voters from two groups: those who supported the two major existing parties, or those who voted for minor parties. I believe this indicates a high possibility of protest voting.

The Relationship Between Political Dissatisfaction and Voting for New Parties

To determine if voter dissatisfaction with existing parties led to support for third parties or new parties, it is naturally necessary to measure political dissatisfaction. First, I examined party favorability as an indicator of dissatisfaction with existing parties. Party favorability quantifies the favor or disfavor a voter feels towards each party. In the survey conducted by the East Asia Institute, party favorability was rated on a scale of 0 to 100, where 0 signifies 'very unfavorable' and 100 signifies 'very favorable.' A negative perception of a particular party can be considered an indicator of overall dissatisfaction with that party.

Measuring Political Dissatisfaction Through Party Favorability

To determine whether voters' dissatisfaction with existing parties has led to support for third parties or new parties, it is naturally necessary to measure political dissatisfaction. Therefore, I first examined party favorability as an indicator of political dissatisfaction with existing parties. Party favorability quantifies the favorability or unfavorability voters feel towards each party. In the survey conducted by the East Asia Institute, party favorability was assessed by voters on a scale of 0 to 100, where 0 means 'very unfavorable' towards the party and 100 means 'very favorable.' If one has negative feelings towards a specific party, this can likely be considered an indicator of overall dissatisfaction with that party.

This chart shows the average favorability ratings of new party voters towards each party. As you can see, voters for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party naturally rated their own party most favorably. However, their favorability towards the Democratic Party was nearly as high, suggesting many viewed both parties favorably. The Reform Party's case is different. While it was rated most favorably, the average score was just above 50, at around 57 points. Other parties were viewed very unfavorably.

We were able to confirm once again that the characteristics of supporters of these two parties differ somewhat. If so, did the political dissatisfaction, examined through party favorability, lead to voting for these new parties? Statistical analysis revealed that for voters of both parties, the lower their favorability towards existing parties, the higher the probability of voting for a new party, which was statistically significant. The graph you see now shows the marginal effect of party favorability on voting for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party. As you can see, in both cases, as favorability towards each party decreases from 100 to 0, the probability of voting increases. The same applies to the Reform Party. For the Reform Party, here it is. It is not the Reform Party, but the People Power Party. We confirmed that as favorability towards the People Power Party and the Democratic Party of Korea decreases from 100 to 0, the probability of voting for the Reform Party increases. The second indicator of dissatisfaction I examined was dissatisfaction with candidate nominations, which Professor Seo Hyun-jin just mentioned.

The Impact of Nomination Dissatisfaction on New Party Voting

To examine whether the dissatisfaction with the nomination process of existing parties during the election period influenced the decision to vote for a new party, we re-coded the responses to the question 'What do you think of the nomination process for the general election candidates of each party?' Respondents who answered 'poorly' or 'very poorly' were coded as 1, indicating dissatisfied voters, and others as 0. This first shows the average. Looking at the degree of dissatisfaction with nominations among new party voters, approximately 78% of new party voters responded that they were dissatisfied with the People Power Party's nominations, while they still viewed the Democratic Party positively, with about 70% expressing satisfaction with the Democratic Party's nominations. For the Reform Party, similarly, 72% and 68% respectively responded that the nomination process for both parties was unsatisfactory.

Presidential Approval Ratings and New Party Voting

Statistical analysis showed that dissatisfaction with the People Power Party's nomination process significantly increased the probability of voting for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party, while dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party's nomination process increased the probability of voting for the Reform Party. As you can see, this also shows the marginal effect. In case 1, dissatisfaction with nominations, and in case 0, satisfaction. The probability of voting for the Cho Kuk Party increases when dissatisfied with nominations, which is the People Power Party's nomination process. Then, when dissatisfied with the Democratic Party's nomination process, the probability of voting for the Reform Party increases compared to when satisfied. As a third indicator of political dissatisfaction, I sought to evaluate the hypothesis that dissatisfaction with President Yoon's state administration might lead to voting for a new party. To this end, voters responded on an 11-point scale to the question, 'How well do you think President Yoon is managing state affairs?'

Now, let's consider what factors influence the choice between different new parties when such dissatisfaction exists. Naturally, a higher favorability towards a specific new party increases the likelihood of voting for it. Statistically significant effects were found: higher favorability towards the Cho Kuk Innovation Party led to voting for it, and higher favorability towards the Reform Party led to voting for it. Second, the classic concept of ideological distance was analyzed. The closer voters perceived the ideological distance to be between themselves and a new party, the higher the probability of voting for that party. An interesting finding was that new party voters, compared to existing party voters, showed a positive correlation with political interest. While I haven't fully confirmed this due to the preliminary nature of the analysis, existing party voters showed either lower political interest or no significant effect. Finally, the relationship with independent voters was not confirmed; independent voters could not be assessed as having a higher probability of voting for new parties. In conclusion, the voting for new parties in the 22nd general election appears to be a result of voters with high political interest becoming disappointed and dissatisfied with existing parties.

Determinants of Choosing a New Party

Given the time constraints, I could not elaborate on the socio-demographic characteristics of new party voters. However, it was found that most of them are highly educated and have high average monthly household incomes, belonging to the upper-middle class. It seems that highly educated individuals from the upper-middle class, with high political interest, became dissatisfied and disappointed with existing parties. This dissatisfaction manifested as general unfavorability, disappointment with the nomination process, disappointment with the president's job performance, and also reacted to specific issues. Among the various alternative parties, they chose those with higher favorability and closer ideological distance. Lastly, as I have mentioned several times, supporters of the Cho Kuk Innovation Party and the Reform Party exhibited somewhat different characteristics.

Conclusion: Background and Implications of the New Party Phenomenon

Another interesting point is that for these new party voters, the higher their level of engagement and interest in existing parties, the higher the probability of voting for a new party. Although I haven't been able to confirm this properly due to preliminary analysis, for existing parties, the opposite was observed, with political interest being lower or having no effect. Finally, the relationship with unaffiliated voters was not confirmed. Unaffiliated voters could not be assessed as having a higher probability of voting for new parties. In conclusion, based on my comprehensive analysis, voting for new parties in the 22nd general election appears to be the result of politically engaged voters becoming disappointed and dissatisfied with existing parties.

Due to time constraints, I could not discuss the socio-demographic characteristics of new party voters. It was found that most of them are highly educated and have high average monthly household incomes, belonging to the upper-middle class. It seems to be the result of highly educated individuals with high political interest from the upper-middle class becoming dissatisfied and disappointed with existing parties. This dissatisfaction was reflected in overall dislike, disappointment with the nomination process, disappointment with the president's state administration, and also a reaction to specific issues. Among these various alternative parties, they chose parties with high favorability and close ideological distance. Finally, as I mentioned several times earlier, supporters of the Cho Kuk Innovation Party and supporters of the Reform Party had slightly different characteristics.

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Jeong Yeong-kyung, a visiting researcher at the Seoul National University Institute for Social Sciences, analyzed the characteristics of voters who cast ballots for third parties in the 22nd general election and revealed that they exhibited a tendency for 'protest voting,' casting votes for alternatives based on dissatisfaction with the two major existing parties. Jeong Yeong-kyung analyzed that the new party phenomenon in this election is largely attributable to highly educated individuals from the upper-middle class, with high political interest, becoming disappointed with existing parties. Furthermore, she analyzed that among the various alternative parties, they chose those with high favorability and close ideological distance.

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Full Presentation Text

Presentation

Hello, I am Jeong Yeon-kyung from the Institute for Social Sciences at Seoul National University.

The Cho Kuk Innovation Party and the Reform Party performed well in this general election. To comprehensively examine the factors influencing their voters' decisions, this study conducted an in-depth analysis using survey results to determine whether 'dissatisfaction with existing parties truly led to votes for new parties.'

One of the most notable phenomena in this general election was the emergence of several new parties, with the Cho Kuk Innovation Party and the Reform Party achieving significant success. Despite the two major parties creating satellite parties to absorb votes from smaller factions, the Cho Kuk Innovation Party emerged as the third-largest party, and the Reform Party successfully entered the National Assembly by crossing the electoral threshold. Consequently, there is growing curiosity about who voted for these new parties and why.

Many people are already predicting that voters dissatisfied with the existing major parties have shifted their votes, or perhaps that independent voters have moved, or that fundamental factors like ideology or favorability played a larger role. These are the kinds of questions people seem to have.

My research focused on the voting determinants for the Cho Kuk Party and the Reform Party in the 22nd general election, specifically examining the impact of dissatisfaction with the existing major parties. In political science, the act of shifting votes to a third party due to disappointment with one's previously supported party or its figures is referred to as 'protest voting.' For such protest voting to occur, two preconditions must be met: first, there must be significant disappointment with the previously supported party, and second, there must be a viable and sustainable alternative party through which to express this dissatisfaction. In the context of the 22nd general election, both preconditions appear to have been met. Several new parties emerged, and the Cho Kuk Innovation Party, founded about a month before the election, maintained high approval ratings, signaling to voters that it could successfully enter the National Assembly and serve as a viable alternative.

Given the existence of these alternative parties, the question arises whether disappointment with existing parties actually translated into votes for these third parties. To examine this further, it is necessary to first understand the political characteristics of those who voted for these new parties. Before I proceed, when I refer to 'new party voters,' I mean those who voted for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party and the Reform Party in the proportional representation election. Since the Cho Kuk Innovation Party did not nominate candidates in district races, and due to survey complexities, the focus is on the proportional representation election and these two parties.

The table displayed shows which party's candidates these new party voters supported in the district races. As you can see, over 80% of Cho Kuk Innovation Party voters cast their ballots for the Democratic Party in the district races, realizing the 'District: Democratic, Proportional: Cho Kuk' (지민비조) phenomenon.

For the Reform Party, while the majority voted for the People Power Party candidates, a significant portion also voted for Reform Party candidates. Interestingly, about 22% of Reform Party voters indicated they voted for Democratic Party candidates. This suggests a difference in the characteristics of these two voter groups, as only 4% of Cho Kuk Innovation Party voters did so.

We then examined the choices made by these new party voters in the 21st general election, not the most recent one. The table shows the voting choices of Cho Kuk Innovation Party voters in the 21st general election. It appears that most of them were previously Democratic Party supporters. A notable 34% of respondents indicated they voted for both the Democratic Party and the Citizen's Party in district and proportional representation, respectively. Furthermore, an interesting observation is that this voting group seems to consist of two distinct segments. In the proportional representation vote, 48% of respondents indicated they supported third-tier minor parties such as the Justice Party or the Open Democratic Party, rather than the Democratic Party or the United Future Party.

The case of Reform Party voters is very similar. Most of them appear to be supporters of the United Future Party who voted for the United Future Party or Future Korea Party in the 21st general election. More intriguingly, 68% of them have a history of voting for third-tier, minor parties in proportional representation elections.

Synthesizing these findings, the political characteristics of new party voters can be summarized as either supporters of the existing major parties or those who voted for minor parties. This leads me to infer a high likelihood of protest voting.

Therefore, if they were supporters of the existing major parties, their vote for a new party is likely a form of protest against those parties. If those who voted for minor parties in the 21st general election voted for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party or the Reform Party this time, they are likely sustained protest voters who have consistently resisted the existing major parties.

Based on this, I have focused my research on whether voters' dissatisfaction with existing parties led to votes for new parties, as many have predicted, and if so, to what extent and in what form this dissatisfaction influenced their voting decisions.

My comprehensive research findings are presented in Table 7, a logistic regression analysis table on page 150. Today, I will focus on political dissatisfaction and highlight a few interesting points.

To determine if voter dissatisfaction with existing parties led to support for third parties or new parties, it is naturally necessary to measure political dissatisfaction. First, I examined party favorability as an indicator of dissatisfaction with existing parties. Party favorability quantifies the favor or disfavor a voter feels towards each party. In the survey conducted by the East Asia Institute, party favorability was rated on a scale of 0 to 100, where 0 signifies 'very unfavorable' and 100 signifies 'very favorable.' A negative perception of a particular party can be considered an indicator of overall dissatisfaction with that party.

This chart shows the average favorability ratings of new party voters towards each party. As you can see, voters for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party naturally rated their own party most favorably. However, their favorability towards the Democratic Party was nearly as high, suggesting many viewed both parties favorably. The Reform Party's case is different. While it was rated most favorably, the average score was just above 50, at around 57 points. Other parties were viewed very unfavorably. This again confirms that the characteristics of supporters for these two parties differ.

Did this political dissatisfaction, as measured by party favorability, translate into votes for these new parties? Statistical analysis revealed that for both parties' voters, a decrease in favorability towards existing parties significantly increased the likelihood of voting for a new party. The graph displayed illustrates the marginal effect of party favorability on voting for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party.

As you can see, in both cases, as favorability towards the Democratic Party decreases from 100 to 0, the probability of voting for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party increases. The same applies to the People Power Party and the Reform Party. As favorability towards the People Power Party and the Democratic Party decreases from 100 to 0, the probability of voting for the Reform Party increases.

The second indicator of dissatisfaction examined relates to candidate nomination dissatisfaction. To assess whether dissatisfaction with the candidate nomination process of existing parties during the election period influenced decisions to vote for new parties, respondents who answered 'very poorly' to the question, 'What do you think of the candidate nomination process for each party's general election candidates?' were coded as 1 (dissatisfied), and others as 0.

This shows the average values. Approximately 78% of Cho Kuk Innovation Party voters expressed dissatisfaction with the People Power Party's nominations, while about 70% viewed the Democratic Party's nomination process positively. For Reform Party voters, 72% responded 'unsatisfactory for both parties,' and 68% stated 'both nomination processes were unsatisfactory.' Statistical analysis confirmed that dissatisfaction with the People Power Party's nomination process increased the probability of voting for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party, while dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party's nomination process increased the probability of voting for the Reform Party. The graph shows the marginal effects: 1 represents dissatisfaction, and 0 represents satisfaction. Dissatisfaction with the People Power Party's nomination process increased the probability of voting for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party. Similarly, dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party's nomination process increased the probability of voting for the Reform Party.

As a third indicator of political dissatisfaction, the hypothesis that 'voting for a new party may occur when President Yoon Suk-yeol's state administration evaluation is unsatisfactory' was evaluated. To this end, voters responded on an 11-point scale to the question, 'How well do you think President Yoon Suk-yeol is managing state affairs?' 0 points were set as 'very poorly,' and 10 points as 'very well.'

In this case, the Cho Kuk Innovation Party showed no significant effect related to presidential job performance evaluation, but the Reform Party exhibited a statistically significant effect. As the evaluation of President Yoon's job performance decreased from 10 to 0, the probability of voting for the Reform Party clearly increased. This suggests that disappointment with President Yoon influenced Reform Party voters. The analyses presented thus far have statistically confirmed that political dissatisfaction with existing parties increases the probability of voting for new parties.

When such dissatisfaction exists, the choice among various new parties is influenced by favorability. A higher favorability towards a specific new party increases the likelihood of voting for it. Statistically significant effects were found: higher favorability towards the Cho Kuk Innovation Party led to voting for it, and higher favorability towards the Reform Party led to voting for it.

Second, the classic concept of ideological distance was analyzed. The closer voters perceived the ideological distance to be between themselves and a new party, the higher the probability of voting for that party. An interesting finding was that new party voters, compared to existing party voters, showed a positive correlation with political interest. Most new party voters had high political interest, and higher interest correlated with a greater probability of voting for a new party. Although not fully confirmed due to the preliminary stage of analysis, existing party voters showed lower political interest or no significant effect. Finally, the effect of being an independent voter was not confirmed. Independent voters could not be assessed as having a higher probability of voting for new parties. Overall, voting for new parties in the 22nd general election appears to be a result of voters with high political interest becoming disappointed and dissatisfied with existing parties.

Given the time constraints, I could not elaborate on the socio-demographic characteristics of new party voters. However, it was found that most of them are highly educated and have high average monthly household incomes, belonging to the upper-middle class. Therefore, the surge of new parties is interpreted as a result of highly educated individuals from the upper-middle class with high political interest becoming dissatisfied and disappointed with existing parties. This dissatisfaction manifested as general unfavorability, disappointment with the nomination process, disappointment with the president's job performance, and also reacted to specific issues. Among the various alternative parties, they chose those with higher favorability and closer ideological alignment.

As mentioned earlier, supporters of the Cho Kuk Innovation Party and the Reform Party exhibited somewhat different characteristics. Cho Kuk Innovation Party supporters tend to be favorable towards the Democratic Party and hostile towards the People Power Party, suggesting their dissatisfaction likely stems primarily from the People Power Party. Reform Party supporters, on the other hand, appear to have expressed dissatisfaction with both major parties when casting their votes. This concludes my presentation. Thank you. ■

As mentioned several times before, supporters of the Cho Kuk Innovation Party and supporters of the Reform Party showed somewhat different characteristics. Supporters of the Cho Kuk Innovation Party are voters who are favorable towards the Democratic Party and hostile towards the People Power Party, and their dissatisfaction was likely mostly directed at the People Power Party. Supporters of the Reform Party are presumed to have tended to vote by expressing dissatisfaction with the two existing major parties. I will now conclude my presentation. Thank you.

Presenter: Jeong Yeong-kyung, Visiting Researcher, Seoul National University Institute for Social Sciences.

Managed and Edited by: Kim Sun-hee, EAI Researcher

Inquiries: 02-2277-1683 (ext. 209) shkim@eai.or.kr