[North Korea and the World] Why the North Korea-Russia Summit is a No-Win Game for North Korea

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1iKN_1oCOU

Park Won-gon, Director of the North Korea Research Center at the East Asia Institute (EAI) and Professor at Ewha Womans University, argues that the North Korea-Russia summit is a 'self-inflicted wound' that will worsen North Korea's diplomatic isolation and reduce the possibility of sanctions relief from the international community. Park points out that while North Korea, possessing weapon systems interoperable with the Russian military, may supply munitions to Russia, it is unlikely that Russia will transfer key technologies for advanced weapons development to North Korea in return. Furthermore, he assesses that military exercises between North Korea and Russia, or North Korea, China, and Russia, would be largely symbolic due to unclear common objectives among the three nations and North Korea's outdated conventional weapon systems. He also predicts that unlike the strengthening North Korea-Russia relationship, China is maintaining a certain distance from the Ukraine war, making a rapid escalation of confrontation in the North Korea-US, South Korea-China-Russia framework unlikely.

■ Park Won-gonDirector of the North Korea Research Center, East Asia Institute. Professor at Ewha Womans University, Department of North Korean Studies.

■ Managed and Edited by: Park Ji-soo, EAI Researcher

    Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) | jspark@eai.or.kr

Video Script

North Korea's weapon systems are based on Soviet-era systems, and this remains the case today. Therefore, they possess weapon systems that are interoperable with Russia's. A prime example is the 152mm artillery shells, which are likely unique to North Korea and are being used by Russia in the Ukraine war. Conversely, what does North Korea need? North Korea needs many things, particularly those requiring a very high level of technological expertise, such as satellites or the core technologies for intercontinental ballistic missiles that North Korea is continuously developing. I believe Russia is unlikely to provide such technologies.

Hello and thank you again for watching "Park Won-gon's North Korea and the World." Today, I will be discussing North Korea and Russia: why are they meeting, and what will they discuss? This is a very different situation from the past. For North Korea, Kim Jong-un's events are typically referred to as 'Event No. 1' and are always kept in strict secrecy, from all movements to the start dates and programs. However, The New York Times reported in great detail, and the US government authorities likely provided the information, because the report was published by The New York Times and the White House almost confirmed it.

With details such as traveling by train, attending the Eastern Economic Forum on November 13th, and so on, this signifies that the information held by the United States is highly accurate, even pinpointing the exact date. Of course, the US leaking this information in advance was a message to 'don't go,' and the US is engaging in information warfare, particularly urging North Korea and Russia not to engage in arms deals. The biggest background factor is confidence in the K-key, which has the effect of making Kim Jong-un's actions very bold.

Discussions about North Korea and Russia will continue. First, there is a need to escape diplomatic isolation. If we were to name two countries currently destabilizing the international order, one is Russia, which militarily invades sovereign states and attempts to seize their territory, thus violating the most basic principle of respecting sovereignty. The other is North Korea, which has been undermining the non-proliferation regime since 1968 and seeks to become a nuclear power, effectively possessing nuclear weapons. These two countries are branded as rogue states by the international community, so the possibility of cooperation between them is increasing. Of course, there is the framework of South Korea-US-Japan versus North Korea-China-Russia, but in a symbolic sense, we are seeing cooperation between these two countries.

Second, there is a practical need. The Ukraine war has been ongoing for over a year. Many lessons have been learned from the Ukraine war, particularly regarding warfare. Although Russia possesses nuclear weapons, the current war is a conventional one and has become a war of attrition, proceeding in a form of attrition warfare. This means that a vast amount of materiel, especially that required for conventional warfare, is being consumed: combat vehicles, armored vehicles, artillery, and the necessary ammunition – an enormous quantity is being expended.

Therefore, Russia must continuously receive supplies, but this is bound to be significantly limited. On the other hand, Ukraine receives supplies from around the world: the US, NATO allies, and many other countries are supporting Ukraine, so their war-fighting capabilities and various weapon systems needed for the war are continuously supplied. Russia, however, is not in the same situation. The only country supplying weapons to Russia is Iran, but even that is limited, and the key country, China, absolutely does not provide military weapons.

China defines itself as a bystander in the Ukraine war, thus providing no assistance in military aspects. Therefore, among the remaining countries in the world, North Korea is the only one that Russia can utilize for weapon systems. North Korea's weapon systems are based on Soviet-era systems, and this remains the case today. Therefore, they possess weapon systems that are interoperable with Russia's. A prime example is the 152mm artillery shells, which are likely unique to North Korea and are being used by Russia in the Ukraine war. In contrast, South Korea and NATO allies, including the US, use 155mm artillery shells. Thus, if the calibers match, they can be immediately operationalized, and North Korea possesses such capabilities. The visit of the Russian Defense Minister on the day referred to as the 'Victory Day' was likely a request for munitions, particularly artillery shells, from North Korea. Similar discussions are continuously emerging from the US. Conversely, what does North Korea need?

North Korea needs many things, particularly those requiring a very high level of technological expertise, such as satellites or the core technologies for intercontinental ballistic missiles that North Korea is continuously developing. I believe Russia is unlikely to provide such technologies. This is because, even with allies since the Soviet era, Russia has rarely transferred advanced weapons requiring superior technological capabilities. In fact, this led to strained relations with China. While the Soviet Union did transfer a significant amount of weaponry to socialist countries, including North Korea, these were conventional weapons and not of great significance to them. In any case, looking at North Korea's weapon development process, the weapons they currently possess largely incorporate Russian and Soviet designs. However, this is not due to Russia transferring technology; rather, North Korea seems to have smuggled Russian-made weapons, reverse-engineered them, and acquired technological capabilities through disassembly and reassembly. A prime example is North Korea's KN-23 ballistic missile, which is identical to Russia's Iskander missile. However, it is more likely that the missile was redeveloped from one acquired from a third country, which has been mentioned in Japan, rather than Russia directly providing the technology. If North Korea supports Russia in this manner, what Russia can provide in return is likely food or energy, rather than technology. This is because Russia has an oversupply of food and energy. Originally, a significant portion was exported, but after Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine,

it has been subjected to sanctions, leading to a surplus. Therefore, it is much easier to provide these to North Korea, with which it shares a border, and North Korea needs them. North Korea also needs fertilizer, which Russia exports and is a crucial item for North Korea. I believe there is a mutual need. Furthermore, the US has recently been raising very strong objections. The objections are even stronger than when North Korea launches nuclear missiles.

As you may have seen, Jake Sullivan, the National Security Advisor, directly stated, 'You will pay the price on the international stage.' He elaborated on this issue in detail. The fact that he is speaking at this level indicates that from the US perspective, while the Ukraine war is important and North Korea's provision of artillery shells and weapon systems may not be a 'game-changer' on the Russian front, the US clearly believes it contributes to sustaining Russia's war effort. Therefore, the US is raising strong objections for this reason.

As you may have seen, when Jake Sullivan called for a discussion on North Korea, he directly stated that North Korea would pay the price on the international stage. This indicates that from the U.S. perspective, the war in Ukraine is paramount, and while they may not view North Korea's provision of artillery shells and weapons systems as a game-changer on the Russian front, they clearly believe it aids Russia's war sustainability. Therefore, they are raising this issue to that extent.

Another point is the ongoing discussion of military exercises. North Korea and Russia, and even further, North Korea-China-Russia military exercises – I am very cautious about this. This is because North Korea has never conducted such military exercises with any country since the Korean War. North Korea always emphasizes its principle of 'Juche diplomacy,' or self-reliant diplomacy that blocks foreign interference. It also refers to 'Juche-based self-defense,' meaning they will act independently of foreign powers. In such a context, it is questionable whether they can conduct military exercises with Russia or China. Second, military exercises are not conducted casually. To conduct military exercises, there must be clear objectives, purposes, and means that align.

Otherwise, they are merely symbolic. There is not much that North Korea, China, and Russia can align on. Firstly, China and Russia already conduct exercises in the East Sea and the West Sea, respectively, excluding North Korea. The exercises they primarily conduct involve naval vessels and air force operations using aircraft, as they possess the capabilities for such. However, North Korea's naval and air force capabilities are effectively obsolete, possessing only very outdated weapon systems. For instance, North Korea is known to have only about two 1,500-ton class naval vessels, which are very old. Displaying such outdated vessels in joint or combined military exercises would only reveal how deteriorated their own forces are. Therefore, I believe the possibility of such exercises is not high. In contrast, the exercises conducted by South Korea, the US, and Japan have a clear effect of deterring North Korea's nuclear weapons. This is because South Korea, the US, and Japan possess advanced radar systems like Aegis destroyers, which can detect and potentially intercept North Korean missiles. There is a clear objective. However, in the case of North Korea-China-Russia exercises, what would they train for? What objective would they have, and against whom would they be targeting? These aspects are all ambiguous. Therefore, even if exercises are conducted, they would likely remain symbolic, in my opinion. Finally, to conclude, I believe North Korea has made a significant self-inflicted mistake. By cooperating with two countries labeled as rogue states by the international community, they will further strengthen their image of undermining and violating international norms.

The world will recognize these as countries that truly undermine and violate international norms and principles. In a sense, instead of escaping diplomatic isolation as Kim Jong-un might intend, North Korea will fall deeper into diplomatic isolation. Second, this will lead NATO countries to equate Russia and North Korea, meaning North Korea will inevitably become a key adversary. Following the illegal invasion, ten rounds of independent sanctions have been imposed. If North Korea now provides actual weapon support, the same level of sanctions will naturally be imposed on North Korea, making the sanctions relief that North Korea desires much more difficult. European countries will also oppose it more strongly, and efforts will be made to maintain the sanctions resolutions passed by the UN.

So, will this work in North Korea's favor? I do not think so at all. Furthermore, providing artillery shells to Russia and receiving energy in return is a violation of UN resolutions. While Russia may disregard these and proceed, thus potentially violating sanctions overtly, if it does so, it would be a self-negation and self-contradiction, as it would be violating UN sanctions resolutions that it itself agreed to as a permanent member of the UN Security Council. In such a situation, Russia would no longer be recognized as having a position as a permanent member of the UN Security Council.

Will such a situation work to the advantage of both Russia and North Korea? I do not think so. The responsibilities and costs incurred will be immense. Finally, looking at China's recent stance, it is distancing itself at this juncture. This is because it would violate its definition of itself as a bystander in the Ukraine war. Moreover, China has recently shown a dual attitude. While outwardly conveying strong messages to South Korea, the US, and Japan, it is also clearly expanding dialogue behind the scenes. In this context, the extent to which China will accept being tied to North Korea and Russia is a separate issue.

Complex dynamics are at play. These dynamics may become clearer in the next month or two, and they will have a significant impact on the Korean Peninsula. I ask for your continued attention and observation. As I always say, your likes, comments, and subscriptions are a great help. Thank you.

Complex dynamics are at play. These dynamics may become clearer in the next month or two, and they will have a significant impact on the Korean Peninsula. I ask for your continued attention and observation. As I always say, your likes, comments, and subscriptions are a great help. Thank you.