[Global NK 인터뷰] 한반도 안보 딜레마 극복을 위한 역내 국가 협력 방안

YouTube 링크 : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPVCQwhqJ3k

오우양웨이 궈관 싱크탱크 학술위원회 부주임은 한반도의 주변국들이 북한의 비핵화를 지지하는 입장에는 변화가 없기에 함께 협력할 수 있는 공간이 존재한다고 평가하고, 동북아 국가들 간의 건설적인 관계 개선을 통해 안보 딜레마를 극복하고 역내 안정을 도모해야 한다고 강조합니다. 아울러, 한미중은 핵 안전 및 관련 환경 오염 문제, 대북 인도적 지원 등 광범위한 분야에서 공통된 이익이 있으며, 이러한 문제를 논의하기 위해 6자 회담과 같은 다자 협력체를 재가동 해야 한다고 주장합니다.

※︎ 본 인터뷰는 “한반도 미래 질서 구축과 대타협의 길: 전략소통, 확장억제, 핵 비확산 분야 협력”을 주제로 한 Global NK 국제회의 두번째 세션의 일환으로 진행되었습니다.

I. Does common interest among stakeholders still exist on the Korean Peninsula?

• China-U.S. competition is intensifying while DPRK continues its weapon development, and ROK’s DPRK policy is becoming more hardline under the Yoon administration. However, basis and principles for cooperation among the relevant countries in the Korean Peninsula still exist.

• Regional order on the Korean Peninsula is less likely to turn into a “new Cold War,” since relevant countries still share the common interest of nuclear safety, security, and stability.

II. How can Northeast Asia enhance regional stability and prosperity?

• Stakeholders of the Peninsula still have a space to seek cooperation. Great power competition does not mean confrontation in all fields.

• Nuclear safety, security, avoiding nuclear war, regional stability, and nuclear-related environmental issues are some shared interests and potential areas of China-U.S.-ROK cooperation.

III. What are some areas of cooperation between China, U.S., and ROK?

• Multilateral approaches like the Six-Party Talks have often been suspended, but the basic rules and principles are not outdated. Any possible bilateral or multilateral dialogues to promote denuclearization, security, and stability can be meaningful.

■ OUYANG Wei is a Senior Research Fellow, Vice-Director of Academic Committee at Grandview Institution, and the Director of the Center for Chinese Borderland Securities.

■ 담당 및 편집: 박지수, EAI 연구원

    문의: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) | jspark@eai.or.kr

영상 스크립트

I want to share some of our view on striving for the cooperation industry strategic dilemma I think we have Fair the difficult times All of You including several relevant countries around the Korean peninsula I think the no matter the global scope or Asian Pacific region especially on the Korean peninsula security issues are very prominent and risk levels Rising is indeed but bearing in mind the human Destiny I always think the humans have their own wisdom and the common interests for the sake of

a peace and the stability in Asian Pacific region and the future of the world relevant countries should focus on the overcoming obstacles and sick cooperation in the face of strategic dilemma first the basis and the principles for the cooperation between the relevant countries on the Korean peninsula still exist in recent years relevant countries in the current peninsula have undergone some changes many changes in their own strategies and Military capabilities these changes are influenced by a major

power accommodation here's the panelists said earlier on Regional security conflict and are also related to their own static needs every country have their own interests the development of china-u.s relation is at a low point which defense security dialogue exchanges and cooperation are basically in a standstill stopped no any kind of a conversation and dialogue officially the United States has intensified pressure on China and political economic security fields and China feels more and more pressure

from United States and the conversation between the two countries in many aspects is on the rise which is a negative impact as I said earlier on in several meetings on the cooperation of the nuclear issue and peace and stability on the peninsula the tbrk continues to develop nuclear weapons a Justice nuclear policy as some experts speak early on an upgrade is nuclear capability which is regardless of basic strategic means I think the not they are not just a focused on the conventional Warfare but the nuclear weapons is basic strict

means for their own National Security and regime stability at the same time fracking missile launches have increased his instability in the peninsula and making peace on the peninsula in the coming becoming more unpredictable the our case policy currently toward dprk is getting tougher darker U.S Alliance has upgraded and extended deterrence has become concrete including moving nuclear weapons in the use of four deterrents and even attempt to use the nuclear weapons for retaliate the adjustment of the security relations

between the ROK and Japan has made coordination and John command of military forces of RK Japan United States are easier but clearly it's not a really aligned triangle that lines but coordinated much more easier I think therefore it is the meaning focus on the peninsula and Regional security issues but it's the obviously increasing the Strategic pressure on tprk I don't think the they they are not uh clearly response currently but they really think they're facing the strike pressure more than ever

and tension on the Korean peninsula the Russia Ukraine war has made Russia U.S relations in a quality hostile state something like the enemy the relationship between ROK and Russia declined I think the government of South Korea will be sent some ammunition maybe to the Ukraine and relationships between Russia and the DPR case for instance so a lot of changes which made Russia's policy for issue of denucleiation on Peninsula with uncertainty I don't know it's by this in general the basic position of relative countries

on the denotation of Korean peninsula has not changed entirely I think that is is a common interest and overall strategic balance on the Korean peninsula what I mean is the overall strategic balance also fragile fragile but still exists therefore the possibility of Sudden Change I mean the crisis suddenly changed the peninsula within a certain period of time is relatively small someone maybe think is will be happen next time okay is very quickly I don't think so and the basis on agriculture architecture for the relevant current

parties the seeking cooperation is still exists we should look the other side second the original order on the Korean Peninsula is less likely to turn to a cold war many people like to talking about the new Cold War the initiative from U.S trilateral ministerial dialogue mechanism were established in 2010 with aim of coordination policy towards the dbrk this triparticide system is characterized by the U.S led security partnership but it's still not stateable lines the there would be a part of components

within trilateral security cooperation especially focused to China the people of many people of China worry about that but the main focus is more likely on the possible crisis on the Korean peninsula the recent Improvement of our Japan relations many people very interesting about this it's mainly due to the mutual political economic and security interests of the two countries yes we can focus on security matters but at the same time we have to look at the political and the economic issues and recent have been told it's increased

security pressure on RK and Japan coming from a tense situation in the current peninsula at the same time adjustment our courage Japan relations we also have the United States coordinate security policies of the two Airlines on the other hand from the perspective of the maintaining the overall order of the Northeast Asia the normalization of relation between ROK and Japan especially end of the trade War I also have certain conducive and useful for stability and prosperity of the Northeast Asia my personal point of view

the the relevant countries no cessation should be normalized it may possible have a certain promoting effort on the construction of the free trade zone in Northeast Asia the maintenance of healthy and the balanced economic and trade relations among China Japan and RK is conducive to the prosperity and stability of Northeast Asia in general although relevant countries have undergone some strategic changes due to internal external factors and have conflicting interests but they still share same overall

interest in nuclear safety security and stability in the peninsula therefore in the future it is an unlikely that relevant countries will abandon denuclearization policy and Regional stability who want to benefit about this and to pursue block confrontation leading to a cold war third in the complex International environment countries and still seek space for cooperation on the current peninsula competition between the major powers and disputes around relevant countries in today's world does not mean confrontation in no fields

as long as there's no shop conversation in terms of core interest cooperation in other areas is possible on the Corinthians law China and United States and RK should have the same general understanding on safeguarding nuclear safety security avoid nuclear war on Peninsula and preventing conflict in the war that's for China is a shared long border within Australia the software is the same if there is a military current conflict or nuclear security issue around communism that leads to a nuclear war

and interests of the old parties will suffer heavy losses and Regional International Security framework will be overturned I'm not sure is the overturned yet or not even a state of strategic competition between China and U.S it is still possible for China and United States or China any RK to cooperate in some areas related to the peninsula such as nuclear safety and related environmental issues such as humanitarian assistance including short food shortages disastrous and refugees bilateral and multilateral dialogue of the issue of

nuclear safety on Peninsula including nuclear accident nuclear leak caused by nuclear pollution geological disaster caused by nuclear test Etc nuclear security and Regional stability we can talking about this all parties should make practical efforts to reduce tensions on the peninsula it should be noticed that although bilateral dialogue between the us and our tpr dprk is important but it's going to truly resolve the nuclear and security issues entirely on the peninsula because the peninsula issue involves

interests of all parties three and lastly although the six-party talks which aim at resolving nuclear safety security and stability on the peninsula have been suspended someone said it stopped someone said it's failure but the basic rules and the principles are not updated if there is no effective framework for multilateral talks and dialogues for time being in my perspective any possible biological maybe two maybe three maybe four maybe five and the multilateral dialogue with aim of promoting denucleation

security and stability on Peninsula will be useful