[Global NK インタビュー] 核不拡散体制の現状と展望

YouTubeリンク : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ljmMb8WPvE

ウィリアム・トビー（William Tobey）ロスアラモス国立研究所所長は、核不拡散体制（nonproliferation regime）の現状を評価し、それに対する展望を提示します。トビー所長は、最近まで核拡散防止条約（Non-Proliferation Treaty: NPT）は概ね安定的に維持されてきたものの、ロシアがNPT条約を違反し、他国の挑戦行為を庇う形で国際秩序に挑戦する中で、中国やイランなどの国々もこれに同調しており、朝鮮半島の平和と安定を脅かしていると指摘します。したがって、民主主義や人権などの価値を共有する同類（like-minded）国家が核不拡散体制を強化するための具体的な協力策を模索すべきだと強調します。

※本インタビュー内容は、「朝鮮半島未来秩序構築と大妥協の道：戦略的コミュニケーション、拡大抑止、核不拡散分野協力」をテーマとしたGlobal NK国際会議第二セッションで発表されました。

I. Is the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) still viable?

• Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) has been a stable regime and a solid asset for international peace and security. While the death of NPT has been predicted many times, these predictions have been proven wrong. Yet this time may be different.

• Attack on the NPT regime will have a far-reaching impact on the Korean Peninsula. Since the 2000s, diplomacy to reverse the DPRK nuclear threat has stalled.

II. Who is threatening the future of nonproliferation?

• The world changed in February 2022 when Russia violated and vandalized the international order. Russia and China, both members of the NPT and permanent members of the UN Security Council, are evidently rethinking or already directly attacking the NPT.

• In response, however, further proliferation cannot be the answer. Like-minded countries supporting the NPT and shared values must act together. They must prepare an active defense of norms, values, and laws, and achieve more tangible defense.

III. How do we rebuild a stable nonproliferation regime?

• Extended deterrence has been the most successful nonproliferation policy in the course of history. The best evidence is shown by the difference between Poland and Ukraine. Fortunately, ROK is part of the U.S. treaty alliance and a beneficiary of U.S. extended deterrence. More work is needed bilaterally and multilaterally to fight against the threat to nonproliferation.

※ Please cite accordingly when referencing this source.

■ William Tobey is the Director of the Office of National Security and International Studies at Los Alamos National Laboratory.

■ 担当および編集: パク・ジス, EAI研究員

   問い合わせ: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) | jspark@eai.or.kr

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the views I'm about to extend are my own and don't represent any other Institution I'm going to talk mostly about the non-proliferation and the npt I'd like to start by offering some context of my own views I'm both a non-proliferation treaty supporter and an optimist I think despite some weaknesses the treaty has performed well several decades ago there were nine states with nuclear weapons today there are nine states with nuclear weapons we've traded South Africa for North Korea arguably not a great trade

especially if you live here but still it's been a stable regime which is really been an asset to International Peace and security despite all that observers from Robert McNamara on have worried over the possibility of Greater proliferation and the death of the npt is predicted many times all of those observers have been proven wrong I'm worried that this time may be different why um there's a saying in the nuclear safety realm that an accident anywhere is an accident everywhere I fear that the attacks on the

non-proliferation treaty in places away from the Korean Peninsula will have far-ranging effects to include on the north on the Korean peninsula the world changed as much in February of 2022 as it did in November of 1989 and December of 1991 when the Berlin Wall fell and the Soviet Union collapsed we're in a very different world today than the last time I was in Korea Russia is not only violating the international order it is vandalizing it if I don't mean to trivialize this but it's it's the difference between merely

speeding and taking down all the speed limit signs they're trying to destroy norms and law that have been built up over decades this pose is a direct threat to non-proliferation policy in several ways by attacking the Budapest memorandum they attack the security of non-nuclear weapon States everywhere by shielding Iran from responses to tehran's violation not only of the joint comprehensive plan of action but also its safeguards agreement with the iaea they undermine the non-proliferation treaty and I would just ask does anyone

believe that Iran worries that it might have to come before the U.N security Council when Russia wielding a veto is receiving drones from Iran by threatening nuclear use Russia directly attacks the non-proliferation treaty and most importantly by attacking the very idea of international law that cannot help but have consequences for the Korean Peninsula Russia was a party to the six-party talks and I would add that those countries who fail to oppose or Worse tacitly support the lawlessness that Russia is exhibiting are complicit

in undermining the non-proliferation treaty I was going to point out that sadly um since the 2000s when there was active diplomacy attempting to reverse the North Korean nuclear weapons program and I attended the six-party talks hosted by China that diplomacy is essentially stalled that alone is of concern um I was even more concerned to hear Professor Gia raise the possibility that China might reverse its support for non-proliferation so what is to be done about all this we Face a situation where two of the

nuclear weapons States under the non-proliferation treaty and two of the permanent members of the United Nations security Council may be either rethinking or directly attacking non-proliferation policy I don't believe that the the correct response is further proliferation I think instead that like-minded Nations must act together those that believe in democracy human rights and rule of law must stand together and support those values as well as non-proliferation those shared values are our greatest source of

strength in pursuit of those shared values we must prepare an active defense we must defend not only the Norms values and laws but we must also be prepared with more tangible defense I believe that extended deterrence is has been the most successful non-proliferation policy in history and that that the and the best evidence of that is the fact I think that um the difference between Poland which is a member of NATO and therefore a beneficiary of U.S extended deterrence and Ukraine has not been lost on on

other Observers fortunately South Korea is it is a treaty Ally of the United States and a beneficiary of extended deterrence both the United States and Korea will need to act more closely but also with others others in the region and others globally to stand up to the threats to non-proliferation