[EAI 라운드테이블] 우크라이나 전쟁 상황과 한국의 지원 방안 모색을 위한 간담회

YouTube 링크 : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M03yOOTNRBk

1. 질의응답

동아시아연구원(EAI)은 지난 4월 17일 우크라이나 전쟁 상황과 한국의 지원 방안 모색을 위한 간담회를 개최하였습니다. 솔로미아 보브라스카(Solomiia Bobrovska) 우크라이나 국회의원, 마킨 왈레키(Marcin Walecki) 국제민주연구소(National Democratic Institute: NDI) 우크라이나 지역 책임자와 올레나 할루슈카(Olena Halushka) 부패방지대책센터(Anti-Corruption Action Center) 이사는 우크라이나 전쟁을 규범과 가치의 전쟁이라고 규정하고, 민주주의의 승리를 위한 국제사회의 역할에 대해 설명하였습니다. 현장에 참석한 박원곤 EAI 북한연구센터 소장(이화여대 교수), 윤지현 한국국제협력단 유라시아실장, 전재성 EAI 국가안보연구센터 소장(서울대 교수), 차두현 아산정책연구원 수석연구위원은 우크라이나 전쟁의 전망과 평화 협상 타결 가능성에 대해 논의하고, 보다 효율적인 지원 방안 모색을 위해 한국과 우크라이나 정부 간 소통을 강화해야 한다고 강조하였습니다.

2. 우크라이나 인도적 위기에 대한 국제사회의 역할

솔로미아 보브라스카(Solomiia Bobrovska), 우크라이나 국회의원은 전쟁 발발 후 800만 명의 피난민과 530만 명 이상의 국내 실향민이 발생했고, 우크라이나의 농경지 25% 가량이 파괴되었다고 설명하며 피해를 입은 이들에 대한 인도적 지원과 심화되는 식량 안보 위기에 대한 대응 마련이 시급하다고 강조합니다. 아울러, 우크라이나의 위기대응 및 회복을 위해 국제사회에 협력과 연대를 촉구합니다.

3. 전쟁 국면 속 우크라이나의 민주주의 수호

마킨 왈레키(Marcin Walecki), 국제민주연구소(National Democratic Institute: NDI) 우크라이나 지역 책임자는 우크라이나가 러시아의 공격에 대응하고 있을 뿐 아니라 민주주의와 주권적인 미래를 위해 고군분투하고 있다고 강조합니다. 전시상황에서 어려움을 겪고 있는 것이 사실이지만, 시민사회 단체들의 적극적인 활동으로 인해 우크라이나와 민주주의는 건재할 것으로 예상합니다. 아울러, 부패 방지 개혁과 경제와 정치 간 균형 유지에 대한 한국의 경험이 우크라이나에 매우 가치 있는 지원이 될 것이라고 전하고, 민주주의를 위한 한국의 기여를 촉구합니다.

4. 우크라이나의 반부패 노력 및 개혁 과제

올레나 할루슈카(Olena Halushka), 우크라이나 부패방지대책센터 이사는 전자 신고 시스템의 도입과 전문화된 반부패 부처의 설립을 통해 우크라이나가 공공행정의 투명성과 효율성을 제고할 수 있었다고 강조합니다. 전시 상황에서도 해당 기관들이 운영되고 있음은 반부패 개혁의 성공을 시사한다고 설명하며 부패로부터 자유로운 우크라이나의 재건 과정을 위해 사법 개혁과 러시아 신흥재벌 올리가르히의 제재가 그 어떤 것보다 중요하다고 전합니다.

영상 스크립트

During my tenure as a member of the National Assembly Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee, the Ukraine War has never been officially discussed at the committee level. Although the Foreign Minister was present, no questions were asked. Through the recent US wiretapping incident, it has been confirmed that South Korea is considering indirect ammunition support to the conflict through Poland.

It mostly takes the form of indirect aid, and it is difficult to officially raise the issue and obtain approval from the National Assembly. I would like to hear opinions on whether South Korea's indirect aid is sufficient. Government mentions several times that we, South Korea is going to give humanitarian assistant, going to support budgetary assistance to Ukranian government, and South Korea is pretty much interested in build infrastructure, and after war, participate restoration of Ukraine.

At this very moment, I’m wondering what kind of humanitarian assistance is needed. Our government allocate hundred million US dollar but I think personally is not enough, so we have to raise more fund to help the Ukraine. About the aid and assistance, in a couple of months, the parliamentary friendship group from Ukraine plans to start negotiations with Korea in June, and start to understanding each other deeper and closer.

We need to establish closer communication between our parliaments and I am ready to share documents or papers to provide a wider understanding of the situation. We are also open to inviting you to Ukraine, as it's difficult to explain the situation fully in writing.

I hope that the engagement between Korean and Ukrainian lawmakers will launch meaningful discussions on how we can provide assistance. Parliamentary diplomacy is very important and is something which is also a guest of solidarity. So now we would be delighted to help bring a strong delegation from South Korea to come to Kiev.

This is very much needed. Russia notes that once Ukraine becomes a fully functioning democracy and a member of the EU, this will completely change dynamics in the region. So my suggestion would be, Ukraine is a natural partner. Ukraine can learn a lot from South Korea, but South Korea can also see a potential major European tiger coming up.

Your support to Ukraine, your investment in good governance, support for anti-corruption reforms, it's not only a right thing to do, but it's also a smart thing to do for South Korean business. I would also suggest that Ukraine needs support for the enormous and growing number of veterans.

We are anticipating two to three million veterans, and many of them are coming from the front line with a lot of innovation and new technology. South Korea could offer a lot of scholarships to universities in Ukraine to invest in this enormous group of people who are passionate, innovative, and committed to freedom and democracy.

This question of the conditions for a ceasefire or peace agreement will eventually have to be addressed. This is likely to be influenced by the extent of support provided by NATO or EU countries to Ukraine, as well as the China-Russia alliance. Neither Ukraine nor Russia has been able to achieve the best possible outcome in this war, making it highly likely that the conflict will be temporarily halted or ultimately brought to an end.

If Ukraine were to choose between a ceasefire or peace agreement, there would likely be a non-negotiable condition that cannot be conceded. This situation will be related to current policy changes such as joining NATO or the EU. Given the current circumstances, the Ukraine war will probably be a prolonged conflict and the final result will depend on which side, either the allies or Russia, capitulates first.

Wouldn't a UN-mediated ceasefire be a better option than continuing to escalate towards a long-term total war? What is the opinion of Ukrainians regarding this possibility? Recent polls show that the mood among Ukrainians does not support negotiation or conversation with Russians.

That's why we are paying so much attention to the front line. We have to be prepared, and the only guarantee we have is by joining the NATO. We hope that the NATO summit in Vilnius in July will confirm their readiness to accept us, despite some conditions.

This is the direction we are looking at, and what we are eager and ready for. Polls show that more than 80% or even 90% of the Joining NATO will be one of the options that will eliminate the gray zone, the buffer zone, and redraw the new geopolitical map which Russia is now trying to shape.

We have to understand that this is not just the work between two countries.Ukraine is an emerging European tiger, This is the war of dictators against the world order, and the goal is to destroy the world order. The way how this war end will send a signal to other dictators with regards to what their future behav ior will be Because as we are seeing, democratic countries are getting tired this war is too expensive for them.

Authoritarian regimes, on the contrary, are becoming more and more united as time passes. Take a look at Russia, they started fighting on their own, then they engaged Iran in sending them drones, then they engaged North Korea with ammunition, now they are having negotiations with China, and we still do not know to which extent China is supporting Russia with materials.

If this continues to be a protracted war for Russia, it would be easier for other dictators to join in, because they would understand that if Russia is not defeated in Ukraine, this opens the doors for any similar activities of these countries in the region, and this will have a domino effect on the world order, unfortunately.

We have to finish the job right now, and put autocracies back in their place, and convey the message that democracies and the world order will be defended and protected for the sake of the entire world. President Xi Jinping has recently declared his willingness to mediate in the ceasefire of the Ukrainian war, and President Zelenskyy has expressed his openness to engage in talks with Xi. Your insight on the Ukrainian perspective on China's involvement in this matter would be greatly appreciated.

But still, the Ukranian side made a proposal to China from President Zelenski to meet with Xi Jinping, and we are still waiting for a response. We ask that President Lansky's comments mention that each meeting has to be based on respecting the sovereignty of the states.

Zelenski is now ready and eager, and we, as part of the big state team, are trying to make this invitation happen. Now, for the second point, unfortunately, you may have seen that just two days ago, there was a meeting with the Chinese Minister of Defense who traveled to Moscow and had a meeting with Putin from the other side.

We have deep concerns about that, as it sends a strong signal to the rest of the world about their readiness for cooperation. We are especially concerned about the details of military weapons, including UAVs, being produced in China and used by Russia on a daily basis.

and we are ready to communicate and asking Asian states to work closer with us. The Korean government is currently supporting Ukraine mainly for humanitarian assistance. We have already dispersed 100 million dollars last year, and we are planning to commit another 100 million dollars this year.

We are also preparing ourselves to start the project as soon as the war ends, but we are still waiting. If we cannot be sure when this war will end, or in other words, if domestic conflict persists, there is a possibility that we may face a bad situation in the future.

One concern is that if we support a government that is perceived to be corrupt, our aid may inadvertently contribute to existing corruption within the government. I want to ask some advice for foreign partners how to safeguard to support the Ukranian government for humanitarian assistance and the development.

I would not worry about supporting corrupt government because the government of Ukraine is not corrupted. We might be dealing with cases of individual corruption One challenge, but I think we see it in many democracies, is, I agree with SolomiIa, we need to have a closer dialogue between think tanks and politicians, because Ukrainian think tanks are among the best in the world.

They are producing a lot of reports, but they are sometimes hesitant to engage in advocacy with politicians to ensure that those reforms are implemented. As always, implementation is the challenge. But I would like to make sure, Madam Chair, that this is the beginning of a conversation, not the end.

And I volunteer to organize, on behalf of my colleagues in Kyiv another discussion like this one in the next few months, where we can come up with a list of topics and concrete suggestions. You are supporting very brave nation and not corrupted government.

Ukrainian government is in a stance where it will be fighting against corruption because there is a huge demand from Ukrainian society and international partners, who are the biggest donors. So, you know, we call this "sandwich effect" when the Ukrainian government is in between and is under pressure from different sides of society and international partners to implement real reforms and prioritize fighting against corruption.

The problem is not corruption itself, but how it is handled and managed. If you take a look at the recent few corruption scandals we had in Ukraine few months ago, you can draw the following conclusions: even despite the fact that this is wartime. And the way the Ukrainian government addressed these corruption scandals is also a positive sign, because those people were dismissed from the government.

that the previous practices won't be tolerated. That's why I'm cautiously optimistic with regards to the fight against corruption. It just needs time. You have shown us that democracy can thrive even in challenging situations, such as during times of war, despite the widespread belief that democracy is in decline worldwide.

It is truly inspiring to see how democracy can evolve and adapt through measures like anti-corruption reforms. This conflict is not merely a clash between two countries, but rather a global struggle between democracy and authoritarianism. It is astonishing that despite the gravity of the issue, the war in Ukraine has not been formally discussed within the Korean National Assembly Foreign Affairs and Unification committee.

There exists a gap between those who are advocating for democracy in times of war and countries like Korea, which serve as a global model. Implementing programs like this to bridge the gap would be a positive step forward.