[Visible Commentary] Implications of the First Year of the Russia-Ukraine War

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWkoxWFJnhU

To mark the first anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine War, the East Asia Institute (EAI) is releasing a special series of visible commentaries that comprehensively analyze the changes this war has brought to the Northeast Asian regional order from the perspectives of major powers' foreign strategies, value diplomacy, weapon systems, and the global economy. EAI directors and key researchers will discuss the future of North Korea, U.S. foreign strategy, China's perspective and role, support for Ukraine's reconstruction, weapon systems in future battlefields, and supply chain resilience and competition in advanced technologies.

1. Park Won-gon: Three Difficulties the Ukraine War Presents to North Korea[Watch Video]

2. Chun Jae-sung: The U.S. Dilemma of Simultaneously Dealing with Two Nuclear States[Watch Video]

3. Lee Dong-ryul: Can China Mediate the Ukraine War?[Watch Video]

4. Lee Sook-jong: Three Factors Determining the Level of Support for Ukraine[Watch Video]

5. Kim Yang-gyu: Rebutting the Offensive Advantage Theory and the High Utility of Nuclear Weapons[Watch Video]

6. Lee Seung-ju: Globalization Unfolding in a Completely Different Manner After the Ukraine War[Watch Video]

Video Transcript

Yes, the first anniversary of the Ukraine war presents both positive and negative implications for North Korea simultaneously. On the surface, it appears to be a very favorable environment for North Korea. Russia's disruption of the international order, particularly by increasing the possibility of nuclear use, lends a form of legitimacy to North Korea's illicit nuclear possession. Furthermore, the UN Security Council, the body that passed sanctions against North Korea, is significantly undermined by Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine. This also appears to be working in North Korea's favor. However, overall, I do not believe that all aspects are necessarily working in North Korea's favor.

Firstly, the Ukraine war has led to the revival of the NATO alliance, with liberal democratic countries, often referred to as like-minded countries, rallying together, particularly around the United States. This situation is also working very unfavorably for North Korea. While the immediate focus is on responding to Russia, it ultimately leads to the strengthening of a U.S.-led alliance network capable of responding not only to Russia but also to China and North Korea. Secondly, from North Korea's perspective, its primary goal is to have sanctions lifted while maintaining its nuclear status. However, judging by its recent behavior, North Korea has become too aligned with Russia.

North Korea was one of the four countries that opposed the UN General Assembly resolution condemning Russia last year, and it was the first to recognize the regions illegally annexed by Russia, including Donetsk. Consequently, the fundamental perception among the United States and key European allies is that North Korea is significantly aligned with Russia. Recently, as reported by the U.S., it has become known that North Korea provided weapons to Russia through the Wagner Group.

Therefore, with North Korea's current level of nuclear advancement, the sanctions relief it desires has become much more difficult. This is because not only the United States but also European public opinion would find it very difficult to accept. Furthermore, as Russia continues its illegal war, the network of like-minded countries, as briefly mentioned earlier, is strengthening, and the U.S. is enhancing its integrated deterrence, as outlined in its recent defense report. The primary objective of this enhanced deterrence is, naturally, to counter China.

Russia's actions provide a justification for these countries to unite further, beyond the rationale of countering China. Therefore, as this integrated deterrence continues to develop, the utility of North Korea's nuclear capabilities is likely to diminish significantly. Of course, we must continue to observe the unfolding situation, and I believe South Korea should actively participate. However, overall, the U.S. is reorganizing its alliance network by federating the existing alliances in the Indo-Pacific with the Atlantic NATO alliance. This allows for the utilization of assets across these alliances and aims to establish a multidimensional battlefield that extends beyond conventional and nuclear warfare to include cyber and space domains. As this effort develops and is completed, the utility of North Korea's nuclear weapons will inevitably decrease. As long as the Ukraine war continues, the momentum for U.S.-led integrated deterrence will persist.

Finally, overall, the most crucial factor is how the Ukraine war will end and how peace will be achieved. If the war ends in a manner closely resembling Russia's desired outcome, it could significantly approach North Korea's desired scenario. In other words, for a clear warning message to be conveyed to North Korea, the war must conclude in a way that unequivocally demonstrates Russia's illegality, guarantees Ukraine's interests, and restores and upholds the existing international order.

This is my assessment.