[1 Year of the Russia-Ukraine War] Part 1: Three Difficult Challenges Posed by the Ukraine War to North Korea

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWkoxWFJnhU

To commemorate the first anniversary of the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine War, the East Asia Institute (EAI) is publishing a special series of Visible Commentaries assessing the implications of this war in terms of changes in the world order, democracy, the global economy, China's foreign policy, North Korea's survival strategy, and future battlefields and weapon systems. Park Won-gon, Director of EAI's North Korea Studies Center (Professor at Ewha Womans University), assesses that while the war has had aspects that worked in North Korea's favor, such as preventing a unified response to North Korea at the UN, the negative aspects are more significant. These include the strengthening of the US-led alliance system, the reduced possibility of easing North Korea sanctions due to deepening North Korea-Russia alignment, and the weakening of the utility of nuclear weapons with the establishment of the US's integrated deterrence system.

■ Park Won-gon_ Director of EAI's North Korea Studies Center. Professor at Ewha Womans University's Department of North Korean Studies. He holds a Ph.D. in Diplomacy from Seoul National University and has served as a policy advisor to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Unification, Deputy Director of the Korea Institute for Peace and Unification (KPI), and Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Peace and Unification. He spent 18 years researching the ROK-US alliance and North Korea at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses and served as a professor of International Studies at Handong Global University. His main research areas include the ROK-US alliance, North Korean diplomacy and military affairs, and Northeast Asian international relations. His recent works include “Kim Jong Un’s Policy Direction or ‘Line’: Heading for Radicalization,” The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, Vol. 34, No. 2, June 2022; “Continuous ‘Balancing’: A Decade of Kim Jong Un’s Strategy Towards the US,” 『한국국가전략』 (Korea National Strategy), Issue 19 (July 2022); “US Policy Towards China and the Advent of Biden: A Confluence of Continuity and Change,” 『전략연구』 (Strategy Studies), Vol. 28, No. 2 (July 2021); and “Quo Vadis America: The Decline of the United States and the Rise of Biden,” 『평화연구』 (Peace Studies), Vol. 29, No. 1 (Spring 2021).

Video Script

Yes, the first anniversary of the Ukraine war presents both positive and negative implications for North Korea. On the surface, it appears to be a very favorable environment for North Korea. Russia's disruption of the international order, particularly by increasing the possibility of nuclear use, lends a degree of legitimacy to North Korea's illicit nuclear possession. Furthermore, the UN Security Council, the very body that has imposed sanctions on North Korea, has been significantly undermined by Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine. This also operates in North Korea's favor. However, overall, I do not believe that all aspects are necessarily working in North Korea's favor.

Firstly, the Ukraine war has led to a resurgence of the NATO alliance, with countries aligned with liberal democracy, often referred to as like-minded countries, rallying around the United States. This situation is highly unfavorable to North Korea. While the immediate focus is on responding to Russia, it ultimately strengthens the US-led alliance network capable of responding not only to Russia but also to China and North Korea. Secondly, from North Korea's perspective, its greatest desire is to have sanctions lifted while retaining its nuclear weapons. However, North Korea's behavior has been overly aligned with Russia.

Last year, North Korea was one of the four countries that abstained from the UN General Assembly resolution condemning Russia, and it was the first to recognize the regions illegally annexed by Russia, including Donetsk. Consequently, the fundamental perception among the US and key European allies is that North Korea is highly aligned with Russia. Recently, as reported by the US, North Korea has even provided illicit weapons to Russia through the Wagner Group.

Therefore, with North Korea's current level of nuclear advancement, the prospect of sanctions relief, which it desires, has become much more difficult. This is because it is very difficult for public opinion, not only in the US but also in Europe, to accept such a scenario. Thus, overall, the situation is by no means favorable to North Korea. Furthermore, Russia's continued illegal war is strengthening the network of like-minded countries, as mentioned earlier, and the US is enhancing its integrated deterrence system, as outlined in its recent defense reports. The primary objective of this enhancement is, of course, to counter China.

Russia's illegal actions provide a stronger justification for these countries to unite, beyond the pretext of countering China. As this integrated deterrence system continues to develop, the deterrent effect of North Korea's nuclear capabilities, or rather the utility of its nuclear weapons, is likely to be significantly weakened. Of course, we must closely observe the future developments, and South Korea must actively participate. However, the overall realignment of the US-led alliance network aims to federate the existing alliances in the Indo-Pacific with the Atlantic NATO alliance, thereby utilizing assets across these regions. Furthermore, the battlefield is expanding beyond conventional and nuclear warfare to include cyber and space, aiming to establish a multi-dimensional battlefield. As this effort progresses and is completed, the utility of the nuclear weapons possessed by North Korea will inevitably diminish. As long as the Ukraine war continues, the momentum for US-led integrated deterrence will persist.

Finally, the most crucial factor is how the Ukraine war will end and how peace will be achieved. If the war ends in a manner closely resembling Russia's objectives, it could significantly align with North Korea's desired outcome. In other words, for a clear warning message to be conveyed to North Korea, the war must conclude in a way that unequivocally demonstrates Russia's illegality, guarantees Ukraine's interests, and restores and reinforces the existing international order.

This is my assessment.