[Commentary] The Post-NSS and 20th Party Congress China-US Relations: Who Will Win the Hegemonic Competition?

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEG_PXdHx2Q

Jeon Jae-sung, Director of the EAI Center for National Security Studies and Professor at Seoul National University, points out that to forecast the direction of strategic competition between the US and China under Xi Jinping's third term, one must consider the macro-level variables that have emerged in global politics over the past 30 years, through events such as the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the global financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. He explains that a hegemon must possess the capacity to meet the demand for international public goods required by the international order, and therefore, it is difficult for either the US or China to establish and maintain a unipolar hegemonic order. Currently, both the US and China are blaming each other for their inability to effectively cope with the pressures imposed by the structure, utilizing these issues for domestic political gain. Ultimately, however, both nations must acknowledge their respective vulnerabilities and move towards rule-based competition, and he proposes the establishment of a long-term diplomatic strategy for South Korea that contributes to building such an international order.

1. Changes in the World Order and US-China Hegemonic Competition 00:37

"US-China Strategic Competition Requires Consideration of Macro Variables from the Past 30 Years, Including 9/11, the Global Financial Crisis, and the COVID-19 Pandemic"

2. Xi Jinping's Third Term and the 'Chinese Dream': Can China Win the Hegemonic War? 06:40

"Future US-China Competition Will Be a Battle of Who Suffers Less While Resolving Structural Issues; Unipolar Hegemony is Impossible"

3. The Path Forward for South Korean Diplomacy Amidst US-China Conflict

(1) "There remains a possibility to reshape the world order based on a rules-based order" 11:31

(2) "A policy infrastructure and diplomatic strategic culture capable of formulating long-term diplomatic strategies for South Korea are urgently needed" 16:41

■ Jeon Jae-sung: Director of the EAI Center for National Security Studies and Professor at Seoul National University. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Northwestern University and has served as a policy advisor to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Unification. His primary research areas include international political theory, international relations history, the ROK-US alliance, and Korean Peninsula studies. His major works and edited volumes include "Threats of War and Peace Between North and South Korea" (co-authored), "Is Politics Moral?", and "East Asian International Politics: From History to Theory."

Video Transcript

However, both countries have significant limitations in overcoming the various challenges posed by the flow of the international order over the past 30 years. Both nations must effectively cope with the pressures imposed by the structure of the past three decades, but they are currently blaming each other for the many things they cannot accomplish and are also using the necessary domestic resources for domestic political purposes. Since both the US and China, without resolving these grand structural issues, will ultimately engage in a competition not of who is more capable, but of who is less vulnerable and suffers fewer losses, the contest between them...