[EAI Heard Commentary] The Future of the Blown-Up Liaison Office

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzSjDBBJMco

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Editor's Note

The East Asia Institute (EAI, President Yeol Son) is presenting 'EAI Heard Commentary' as a content series to make expert analyses on major domestic and international issues more accessible and convenient. This 'EAI Heard Commentary' features the analysis of inter-Korean relations and North Korea following the bombing of the inter-Korean joint liaison office, by EAI Chairman and Professor Emeritus at Seoul National University, Ha Young-sun. In this commentary, the author argues that following North Korea's bombing of the inter-Korean joint liaison office on June 16, 2020, which led to a further deterioration of inter-Korean relations, the South Korean government should not merely respond superficially with measures such as prohibiting the scattering of anti-North Korea leaflets or dissolving the 'South Korea-U.S. Working Group.' Instead, it should analyze North Korea's strategy within the framework of strengthening the 'three revolutionary capabilities' that began in the Kim Il-sung era. The author contends that North Korea must dismantle this outdated blueprint and pursue a path befitting the 21st century, while South Korea must also develop its own 21st-century blueprint for strengthening the 'three capabilities' to newly enhance its domestic political capabilities.

EAI Heard Commentary Script

North Korea bombed the inter-Korean joint liaison office, established under the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, on June 16, 2020. As I watched the building collapse, the first thing that came to mind was the press conference held by Premier Kim Il-sung for the Mainichi Shimbun two months after the July 4, 1972, South-North Joint Communiqué. He strongly criticized South Korea for not properly implementing the Three Principles of National Reunification and foreshadowed the tragic future of the July 4 Joint Communiqué.

The content of his criticism was threefold: First, he claimed that while South Korea had issued a joint communiqué, it was employing a double-dealing tactic behind the scenes and not faithfully implementing the agreed-upon points. He stated, "To speak frankly, achieving national reunification independently requires the withdrawal of the U.S. imperialists from South Korea and preventing foreign powers from interfering in our nation's reunification issues." Second, despite agreeing on the principle of achieving national reunification through peaceful means rather than military force, tensions were still being created in dialogues with North Korea. At the time, North Korea internally hoped for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from South Korea through improved inter-Korean relations via a peace offensive. Third, even after agreeing on national great unity, South Korean authorities had not reformed laws such as the 'Anti-Communist Law' and the 'National Security Law,' and were intensifying political oppression against the populace. In a letter to Romanian President Ceaușescu around the same time, Premier Kim Il-sung emphasized the need to rapidly foster revolutionary forces and democratize South Korean society to resolve the situation on the Korean Peninsula. Ultimately, the July 4 Joint Communiqué, the first agreement between North and South Korea since the Korean War, was abandoned after just over a year.

Premier Kim Il-sung's press conference half a century ago remains significant because Chairman Kim Jong-un's decision to bomb the inter-Korean joint liaison office does not significantly transcend his grandfather's perspective from that era. In the mid-1960s, facing a rapidly changing world order that made the theory of reunification by force increasingly untenable, Premier Kim Il-sung adopted a new theory of revolutionary reunification aimed at strengthening the three revolutionary capabilities of North Korea, South Korea, and the international community. Based on this new theory of revolutionary reunification, North Korea concretized its content into the Three Principles of National Reunification in the July 4 South-North Joint Communiqué in the early 1970s. Since then, North Korea's actions have largely remained within the basic framework and linguistic structure of the three revolutionary capabilities, as seen in the Basic Agreement between North and South Korea in December 1991, the June 15, 2000, Inter-Korean Joint Declaration, the October 4, 2007, Declaration, and the April 27, 2018, Panmunjom Declaration and the September 19, 2018, Pyongyang Joint Declaration.

Therefore, to devise effective measures for the future of the blown-up liaison office, instead of focusing on superficial symptomatic treatments like prohibiting the scattering of anti-North Korea leaflets or dissolving the South Korea-U.S. Working Group, it is imperative to first conduct an in-depth analysis of North Korea's words and actions since the failure of the North Korea-U.S. summit in Hanoi in late February 2019, from the perspective of its survival strategy of strengthening the 'three revolutionary capabilities.' On April 11, Chairman Kim Jong-un delivered a policy speech at the first session of the 14th Supreme People's Assembly, titled 'On Socialist Construction and the Republic's Internal and External Policies at the Present Stage,' adhering to the basic framework of strengthening the 'three revolutionary capabilities.' First, he emphasized the revolutionary line of self-reliance, the principle of prioritizing the masses, and the Party's leadership in building a socialist power. Second, he pointed to the development of a self-reliant economy, the strengthening of political and military power, the development of socialist culture, and the enhancement of the functions and roles of people's government institutions for strengthening North Korea's revolutionary capabilities. Third, regarding the strengthening of South Korea's revolutionary capabilities, he positively evaluated the Panmunjom Declaration and the September 19 Pyongyang Joint Declaration. However, he stressed that if South Korea genuinely desires inter-Korean relations improvement, peace, and reunification, "the South Korean authorities, instead of being preoccupied with looking around and rushing into busy activities, should, as members of the nation with sound judgment, speak out boldly and become a principal party defending the nation's interests." He further emphasized, "To continue the atmosphere of improving inter-Korean relations, we must crush the machinations of hostile internal and external anti-unification and anti-peace forces." Fourth, concerning the strengthening of international revolutionary capabilities, he meaningfully evaluated the June 12, 2018, Singapore North Korea-U.S. Joint Statement but raised strong doubts about the February 2019 Hanoi North Korea-U.S. Summit. He argued that the summit failed because the United States mistakenly believed it could subdue North Korea by imposing maximum sanctions without abandoning its policy of hostility, which is the fundamental means for a new North Korea-U.S. relationship. Therefore, he asserted that to hold a third North Korea-U.S. summit, the United States must devise a new calculation method different from the current one.

Eight months after his policy speech, at the fifth plenary meeting of the 7th Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea in late December, Chairman Kim Jong-un once again presented a blueprint "to overcome the unprecedentedly severe difficulties head-on, to defend the nation's sovereignty and supreme interests to the end, and to open a path to victory for the Juche revolutionary cause under the banner of self-reliant strengthening."

He first analyzed the current situation, stating, "The challenges we have faced over the past few months were harsh and perilous ordeals that others would not have endured for even a single day, yet none of these difficulties could stop or delay the advance of our people, who move forward united as one without yielding." He declared that the fundamental spirit of the plenary meeting is to overcome objective factors by launching a head-on confrontation rather than waiting for the situation to improve.

North Korea subsequently emphasizes the U.S. policy of hostility toward North Korea as its greatest threat. As the year-end deadline for the U.S.'s new calculation method passed without tangible results, North Korea pointed out that the prolonged U.S. policy of hostility has led the Korean Peninsula situation to a more dangerous and grave stage. Therefore, North Korea will continue to strengthen its military capabilities to deter the other party. Given the reality of increasing hostile actions and nuclear threats, it cannot afford to sacrifice future security for the lifting of current sanctions, and thus, it confidently stated that new strategic weapons will be witnessed in the near future. Simultaneously, it declared that sanctions can only be countered through self-reliance. Accordingly, it identified issues that need to be rectified in national management and economic sectors for self-strengthening.

North Korea's efforts to overcome the difficulties of 2019 head-on have encountered an even more challenging phase in 2020 with the global spread of the coronavirus. The strengthening of domestic and international capabilities has realistically hit a wall. Moreover, the improvement in inter-Korean relations achieved over the past two years, which was expected to contribute to strengthening domestic and international capabilities, has yielded no significant results. Consequently, North Korean First Vice Department Director Kim Yo-jong issued two strongly worded condemnations in mid-June regarding two mistakes made by the South Korean government concerning the scattering of anti-North Korea leaflets and the 'South Korea-U.S. Working Group.' In her first statement, she said, "It seems it is time for us to part ways with the South Koreans," and in her second statement, she declared, "In any case, the South Korean authorities can no longer do anything with us and have become estranged." This is a threat that there is no future for inter-Korean relations unless the South Korean government repents its two sins and chooses a new path. The fundamental issue with scattering anti-North Korea leaflets is the insult to the supreme dignity, which North Korea sanctifies for the strengthening of its domestic revolutionary capabilities. Therefore, North Korea is demanding that South Korean policymakers choose between being a traitor and a trusted partner in the context of the principle of national unity from the July 4 Joint Communiqué. Furthermore, the objection to the 'South Korea-U.S. Working Group,' which is currently coordinating South Korea-U.S. cooperation on inter-Korean issues, is not merely a practical matter. It is a demand to ultimately choose a path between national self-reliance and subservience to alliances. Despite Chairman Kim Jong-un's order to suspend military action against the South on June 23, Kim Yo-jong's threatening statements clearly reveal North Korea's true intentions.

Domestic and international attention is focused on tactically resolving the two issues of scattering anti-North Korea leaflets and the South Korea-U.S. Working Group. However, the core of the problem lies elsewhere entirely. North Korea's fundamental blueprint for reconstruction is still based on strengthening the 'three revolutionary capabilities' from half a century ago. Therefore, if South Korea agrees in principle to North Korea's blueprint, as it did during the July 4 Joint Communiqué, reconstruction can begin in the short term. However, the greater problem is that North Korea's outdated blueprint makes it impossible to build a 21st-century Korean Peninsula as a leading civilized nation in the world. Instead, it will likely wander in the back alleys of history as a backward nation for a long time.

Author: Ha Young-sun_ EAI Chairman, Professor Emeritus at Seoul National University. He received his Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Washington and has served as a professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Seoul National University, Director of the Institute for International Affairs, Director of the Center for American Studies, and President of the Korean Peace Studies Association. His major works include 'Complex World Politics: Strategy, Principles, and a New Order,' 'Korea-Japan New Era and Symbiotic Complex Networks,' 'World Politics in Transition,' 'The Competition to Build the Asia-Pacific Order between China and the U.S.,' 'A Correct View of Korean Diplomatic History: Tradition and Modernity,' and 'World Politics of Love: War and Peace.'

Managed and Edited by: Junil Yoon, EAI Research Fellow

Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 203) | junilyoon@eai.or.kr

[EAI Heard Commentary] is content designed to make it easier and more convenient for you to listen to in-depth analyses of major domestic and international issues by experts. Please cite the source when quoting. EAI is an independent research institute unrelated to any partisan interests. The claims and opinions published in EAI's reports, journals, and books are not related to EAI and are solely the views of the individual author.

Video Transcript

North Korea bombed the inter-Korean joint liaison office, established under the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, on June 16, 2020. As I watched the building collapse, the first thing that came to mind was the press conference held by Premier Kim Il-sung for the Mainichi Shimbun two months after the July 4, 1972, South-North Joint Communiqué. He strongly criticized South Korea for not properly implementing the Three Principles of National Reunification and foreshadowed the tragic future of the July 4 Joint Communiqué. The content of his criticism was threefold: First, he claimed that while South Korea had issued a joint communiqué, it was employing a double-dealing tactic behind the scenes and not faithfully implementing the agreed-upon points. He stated, "To speak frankly, achieving national reunification independently requires the withdrawal of the U.S. imperialists from South Korea and preventing foreign powers from interfering in our nation's reunification issues."

Second, despite agreeing on the principle of achieving national reunification through peaceful means rather than military force, tensions were still being created in dialogues with North Korea. At the time, North Korea internally hoped for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from South Korea through improved inter-Korean relations via a peace offensive. Third, even after agreeing on national great unity, South Korean authorities had not reformed laws such as the 'Anti-Communist Law' and the 'National Security Law,' and were intensifying political oppression against the populace. In a letter to Romanian President Ceaușescu around the same time, Premier Kim Il-sung emphasized the need to rapidly foster revolutionary forces and democratize South Korean society to resolve the situation on the Korean Peninsula.

Ultimately, the July 4 Joint Communiqué, the first agreement between North and South Korea since the Korean War, was abandoned after just over a year. Premier Kim Il-sung's press conference half a century ago remains significant because Chairman Kim Jong-un's decision to bomb the inter-Korean joint liaison office does not significantly transcend his grandfather's perspective from that era. In the mid-1960s, facing a rapidly changing world order that made the theory of reunification by force increasingly untenable, Premier Kim Il-sung adopted a new theory of revolutionary reunification aimed at strengthening the three revolutionary capabilities of North Korea, South Korea, and the international community.

Based on this new theory of revolutionary reunification, North Korea concretized its content into the Three Principles of National Reunification in the July 4 South-North Joint Communiqué in the early 1970s. Since then, North Korea's actions have largely remained within the basic framework and linguistic structure of the three revolutionary capabilities, as seen in the Basic Agreement between North and South Korea in December 1991, the June 15, 2000, Inter-Korean Joint Declaration, the October 4, 2007, Declaration, and the April 27, 2018, Panmunjom Declaration and the September 19, 2018, Pyongyang Joint Declaration. Therefore, to devise effective measures for the future of the blown-up liaison office, instead of focusing on superficial symptomatic treatments like prohibiting the scattering of anti-North Korea leaflets or dissolving the South Korea-U.S. Working Group, it is imperative to first conduct an in-depth analysis of North Korea's words and actions since the failure of the North Korea-U.S. summit in Hanoi in late February 2019, from the perspective of its survival strategy of strengthening the 'three revolutionary capabilities.'

On April 11, Chairman Kim Jong-un delivered a policy speech at the first session of the 14th Supreme People's Assembly, titled 'On Socialist Construction and the Republic's Internal and External Policies at the Present Stage,' adhering to the basic framework of strengthening the 'three revolutionary capabilities.' First, he emphasized the revolutionary line of self-reliance, the principle of prioritizing the masses, and the Party's leadership in building a socialist power. Second, he pointed to the development of a self-reliant economy, the strengthening of political and military power, the development of socialist culture, and the enhancement of the functions and roles of people's government institutions for strengthening North Korea's revolutionary capabilities.

Third, regarding the strengthening of South Korea's revolutionary capabilities, he positively evaluated the Panmunjom Declaration and the September 19 Pyongyang Joint Declaration. However, he stressed that if South Korea genuinely desires inter-Korean relations improvement, peace, and reunification, "the South Korean authorities, instead of being preoccupied with looking around and rushing into busy activities, should, as members of the nation with sound judgment, speak out boldly and become a principal party defending the nation's interests." He further emphasized, "To continue the atmosphere of improving inter-Korean relations, we must crush the machinations of hostile internal and external anti-unification and anti-peace forces."

Fourth, concerning the strengthening of international revolutionary capabilities, he meaningfully evaluated the June 12, 2018, Singapore North Korea-U.S. Joint Statement but raised strong doubts about the February 2019 Hanoi North Korea-U.S. Summit. He argued that the summit failed because the United States mistakenly believed it could subdue North Korea by imposing maximum sanctions without abandoning its policy of hostility, which is the fundamental means for a new North Korea-U.S. relationship. Therefore, he asserted that to hold a third North Korea-U.S. summit, the United States must devise a new calculation method different from the current one.

Eight months after his policy speech, at the fifth plenary meeting of the 7th Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea in late December, Chairman Kim Jong-un once again presented a blueprint "to overcome the unprecedentedly severe difficulties head-on, to defend the nation's sovereignty and supreme interests to the end, and to open a path to victory for the Juche revolutionary cause under the banner of self-reliant strengthening." He first analyzed the current situation, stating, "The challenges we have faced over the past few months were harsh and perilous ordeals that others would not have endured for even a single day, yet none of these difficulties could stop or delay the advance of our people, who move forward united as one without yielding." He declared that the fundamental spirit of the plenary meeting is to overcome objective factors by launching a head-on confrontation rather than waiting for the situation to improve.

North Korea subsequently emphasizes the U.S. policy of hostility toward North Korea as its greatest threat. As the year-end deadline for the U.S.'s new calculation method passed without tangible results, North Korea pointed out that the prolonged U.S. policy of hostility has led the Korean Peninsula situation to a more dangerous and grave stage. Therefore, North Korea will continue to strengthen its military capabilities to deter the other party. Given the reality of increasing hostile actions and nuclear threats, it cannot afford to sacrifice future security for the lifting of current sanctions, and thus, it confidently stated that new strategic weapons will be witnessed in the near future.

Simultaneously, it declared that sanctions can only be countered through self-reliance. Accordingly, it identified issues that need to be rectified in national management and economic sectors for self-strengthening. North Korea's efforts to overcome the difficulties of 2019 head-on have encountered an even more challenging phase in 2020 with the global spread of the coronavirus. The strengthening of domestic and international capabilities has realistically hit a wall. Moreover, the improvement in inter-Korean relations achieved over the past two years, which was expected to contribute to strengthening domestic and international capabilities, has yielded no significant results.

Consequently, North Korean First Vice Department Director Kim Yo-jong issued two strongly worded condemnations in mid-June regarding two mistakes made by the South Korean government concerning the scattering of anti-North Korea leaflets and the 'South Korea-U.S. Working Group.' In her first statement, she said, "It seems it is time for us to part ways with the South Koreans," and in her second statement, she declared, "In any case, the South Korean authorities can no longer do anything with us and have become estranged." This is a threat that there is no future for inter-Korean relations unless the South Korean government repents its two sins and chooses a new path.

The fundamental issue with scattering anti-North Korea leaflets is the insult to the supreme dignity, which North Korea sanctifies for the strengthening of its domestic revolutionary capabilities. Therefore, North Korea is demanding that South Korean policymakers choose between being a traitor and a trusted partner in the context of the principle of national unity from the July 4 Joint Communiqué. Furthermore, the objection to the 'South Korea-U.S. Working Group,' which is currently coordinating South Korea-U.S. cooperation on inter-Korean issues, is not merely a practical matter. It is a demand to ultimately choose a path between national self-reliance and subservience to alliances.

Despite Chairman Kim Jong-un's order to suspend military action against the South on June 23, Kim Yo-jong's threatening statements clearly reveal North Korea's true intentions. Domestic and international attention is focused on tactically resolving the two issues of scattering anti-North Korea leaflets and the South Korea-U.S. Working Group. However, the core of the problem lies elsewhere entirely. North Korea's fundamental blueprint for reconstruction is still based on strengthening the 'three revolutionary capabilities' from half a century ago. Therefore, if South Korea agrees in principle to North Korea's blueprint, as it did during the July 4 Joint Communiqué, reconstruction can begin in the short term.

However, the greater problem is that North Korea's outdated blueprint makes it impossible to build a 21st-century Korean Peninsula as a leading civilized nation in the world. Instead, it will likely wander in the back alleys of history as a backward nation for a long time. What is urgently needed is a South Korean-style blueprint for strengthening the 'three capabilities' in the 21st century. The true Sunshine Policy based on such a blueprint involves embracing a future North Korea that is suitable for the 21st century. To this end, North Korea must be encouraged to embark on a path of reorganization suitable for the 21st century in all areas, including politics, economy, society, culture, ecology, and technology.

Simultaneously, South Korea must be reborn as a leading civilized nation in the 21st century and, along with relevant neighboring parties, assist North Korea in its advancement. For this reconstruction of the Korean Peninsula, above all, the strengthening of new domestic political capabilities with a vision befitting the 21st century must be achieved first.■